Use of SARIMA models to assess data-poor fisheries: a case study with a sciaenid fishery off Portugal

Research on assessment and monitoring methods has primarily focused on fisheries with long multivariate data sets. Less research exists on methods applicable to data-poor fisheries with univariate data sets with a small sample size. In this study, we examine the capabilities of seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) models to fit, forecast, and monitor the landings of such data-poor fisheries. We use a European fishery on meagre (Sciaenidae: Argyrosomus regius), where only a short time series of landings was available to model (n=60 months), as our case-study. We show that despite the limited sample size, a SARIMA model could be found that adequately fitted and forecasted the time series of meagre landings (12-month forecasts; mean error: 3.5 tons (t); annual absolute percentage error: 15.4%). We derive model-based prediction intervals and show how they can be used to detect problematic situations in the fishery. Our results indicate that over the course of one year the meagre landings remained within the prediction limits of the model and therefore indicated no need for urgent management intervention. We discuss the information that SARIMA model structure conveys on the meagre lifecycle and fishery, the methodological requirements of SARIMA forecasting of data-poor fisheries landings, and the capabilities SARIMA models present within current efforts to monitor the world’s data-poorest resources.

Aspects of the reproductive biology of Mugil cephalus (Linnaeus, 1857) in Bonny Estuary

Aspects of the reproductive biology of Mugil cephalus in the Bonny estuary (Nigeria) were studied between January and December 1996. Males were observed to be more slender than females while the females have deeper bodies. The male:female ratio (1:0:95) was not significantly different. The minimum size at maturity was 16.6cm (0.5 yr). Fish matured at 24.3cm TL(1.76 yr) with median maturity size of 19.5cm TL(0.71 yr). Median maturity for male and female fish were 16.4cm TL(0.41 yr) and 18.2cm TL(0.60 yr) respectively. Breeding occurred once a year between September and December, from late rainy season to early dry season. Mean absolute fecundity was 1,403, 808 eggs (range 107, 729-4,445, 423 eggs) for fish of 17.0.29.5cm TL (mean 22.5cm TL). Fecundity correlated positively with fish total weight, length, ovary weight and age

Individual growth rates and movement of juvenile white shrimp (Litopenaeus setiferus) in a tidal marsh nursery

We measured growth and movements of individually marked free-ranging juvenile white shrimp (Litopenaeus setiferus) in tidal creek subsystems of the Duplin River, Sapelo Island, Georgia. Over a period of two years, 15,974 juvenile shrimp (40−80 mm TL) were marked internally with uniquely coded microwire tags and released in the shallow upper reaches of four salt marsh tidal creeks. Subsequent samples were taken every 3−6 days from channel segments arranged at 200-m intervals along transects extending from the upper to lower reach of each tidal creek. These collections included 201,384 juvenile shrimp, of which 184 were marked recaptures. Recaptured shrimp were at large an average of 3−4 weeks (range: 2−99 days) and were recovered a mean distance of <0.4 km from where they were initially marked. Mean residence times in the creek subsystems ranged from 15.2 to 25.5 days and were estimated from exponential decay functions describing the proportions of marked individuals recaptured with increasing days at large. Residence time was not significantly correlated with creek length (Pearson=−0.316, P=0.684 ), but there was suggestive evidence of positive associations with either intertidal (Pearson r=0.867, P=0.133) or subtidal (Pearson r=0.946, P=0.054) drainage area. Daily mean specific growth rates averaged 0.009 to 0.013 among creeks; mean absolute growth rates ranged from 0.56−0.84 mm/d, and were lower than those previously reported for juvenile penaeids in estuaries of the southeastern United States. Mean individual growth rates were not significantly different between years (t-test, P>0.30) but varied significantly during the season, tending to be greater in July than November. Growth rates were size-dependent, and temporal changes in size distributions rather than temporal variation in physical environmental factors may have accounted for seasonal differences in growth. Growth rates differed between creeks in 1999 (t-test, P<0.015), but not in 1998 (t-test, P>0.5). We suggest that spatial variation in landscape structure associated with access to intertidal resources may have accounted for this apparent interannual difference in growth response.

Biological characteristics and determination of population dynamics parameters of Nemipterus japonicus in the coastal waters of Province Bushehr, Persian Gulf

This study was conducted to determine biological characteristics and population dynamics parameters of threadfin bream (Nemipterus japonicus) in Persian Gulf (Bushehr Province), during November 2006 and October 2007. The minimum and maximum specimens were 75-273 mm FL and their weight was 7.6 - 351.9 g. Based on the exponential relationship between fork length and weight, slope (b) for individuals, males and females was 2.987321, 2.992546 and 3.007314, respectively. The emptiness value (V) was 45.6% and it shows that N. japonicus is a moderate feeder. The results of Fp indicates that crustacean with 78.2% are main foods, mollusca (27.7%), fishes (20.7%), polychaeta (19.2%) and Foraminifera (11.7%) were identified as minor foods and phytoplanktons (9.9%), nematoda(8.0%), echinodermata (2.3%) and sea weeds (0.3%) were random foods. The reproduction studies showed the spawning season extended within 2 peaks, from April- May and September and main spawning occurs in spring season.The mean absolute and relative fecundities were 472388±42633 and 3817±293 (X±SE), respectively. The maximum, minimum and mean of oocyte diameter were 0.448, 0.022 and 0.221mm (SE=0.071), respectively.The fork length at 50% maturity estimated to be 20.25 cm for females. The growth coefficient (K) , length infinity (L∞ ) and ɸ' was estimated 0.42/yr , 34.17 cm and 2.69, respectively. The coefficient of total mortality, fishing mortality, natural mortality and E was 1.37, 0.43, 0.94 and 0.31, respectively.