2 resultados para Markov Decision Process

em Aquatic Commons


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As more people discover coastal and marine protected areas as destinations for leisure-time pursuits, the task of managing coastal resources while providing opportunities for high quality visitor experiences becomes more challenging. Many human impacts occur at these sites; some are caused by recreation and leisure activities on-site, and others by activities such as agriculture, aquaculture, or residential and economic development in surrounding areas. Coastal management professionals are continually looking for effective ways to prevent or mitigate negative impacts of visitor use. (PDF contains 8 pages) Most coastal and marine protected area managers are challenged with balancing two competing goals—protection of natural and cultural resources and provision of opportunities for public use. In most cases, some level of compromise between the goals is necessary, where one goal constrains or “outweighs” the other. Often there is a lack of clear agreement about the priority of these competing goals. Consequently, while natural resource decisions should ultimately be science-based and objective, such decisions are frequently made under uncertainty, relying heavily upon professional judgment. These decisions are subject to a complex array of formal and informal drivers and constraints—data availability, timing, legal mandate, political will, diverse public opinion, and physical, human, and social capital. This paper highlights assessment, monitoring, and planning approaches useful to gauge existing resource and social conditions, determine feasibility of management actions, and record decision process steps to enhance defensibility. Examples are presented from pilot efforts conducted at the Rookery Bay National Estuarine Research Reserve (NERR) and Ten Thousand Islands National Wildlife Refuge (NWR) in South Florida.

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Coastal managers need accessible, trusted, tailored resources to help them interpret climate information, identify vulnerabilities, and apply climate information to decisions about adaptation on regional and local levels. For decades, climate scientists have studied the impacts that short term natural climate variability and long term climate change will have on coastal systems. For example, recent estimates based on Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) warming scenarios suggest that global sea levels may rise 0.5 to 1.4 meters above 1990 levels by 2100 (Rahmstorf 2007; Grinsted, Moore, and Jevrejeva 2009). Many low-lying coastal ecosystems and communities will experience more frequent salt water intrusion events, more frequent coastal flooding, and accelerated erosion rates before they experience significant inundation. These changes will affect the ways coastal managers make decisions, such as timing surface and groundwater withdrawals, replacing infrastructure, and planning for changing land use on local and regional levels. Despite the advantages, managers’ use of scientific information about climate variability and change remains limited in environmental decision-making (Dow and Carbone 2007). Traditional methods scientists use to disseminate climate information, like peer-reviewed journal articles and presentations at conferences, are inappropriate to fill decision-makers’ needs for applying accessible, relevant climate information to decision-making. General guides that help managers scope out vulnerabilities and risks are becoming more common; for example, Snover et al. (2007) outlines a basic process for local and state governments to assess climate change vulnerability and preparedness. However, there are few tools available to support more specific decision-making needs. A recent survey of coastal managers in California suggests that boundary institutions can help to fill the gaps between climate science and coastal decision-making community (Tribbia and Moser 2008). The National Sea Grant College Program, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) university-based program for supporting research and outreach on coastal resource use and conservation, is one such institution working to bridge these gaps through outreach. Over 80% of Sea Grant’s 32 programs are addressing climate issues, and over 60% of programs increased their climate outreach programming between 2006 and 2008 (National Sea Grant Office 2008). One way that Sea Grant is working to assist coastal decision-makers with using climate information is by developing effective methods for coastal climate extension. The purpose of this paper is to discuss climate extension methodologies on regional scales, using the Carolinas Coastal Climate Outreach Initiative (CCCOI) as an example of Sea Grant’s growing capacities for climate outreach and extension. (PDF contains 3 pages)