Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States: a state of knowledge report from the U.S. Global Change Research Program

Executive Summary: Observations show that warming of the climate is unequivocal. The global warming observed over the past 50 years is due primarily to human-induced emissions of heat-trapping gases. These emissions come mainly from the burning of fossil fuels (coal, oil, and gas), with important contributions from the clearing of forests, agricultural practices, and other activities. Warming over this century is projected to be considerably greater than over the last century. The global average temperature since 1900 has risen by about 1.5ºF. By 2100, it is projected to rise another 2 to 11.5ºF. The U.S. average temperature has risen by a comparable amount and is very likely to rise more than the global average over this century, with some variation from place to place. Several factors will determine future temperature increases. Increases at the lower end of this range are more likely if global heat-trapping gas emissions are cut substantially. If emissions continue to rise at or near current rates, temperature increases are more likely to be near the upper end of the range. Volcanic eruptions or other natural variations could temporarily counteract some of the human-induced warming, slowing the rise in global temperature, but these effects would only last a few years. Reducing emissions of carbon dioxide would lessen warming over this century and beyond. Sizable early cuts in emissions would significantly reduce the pace and the overall amount of climate change. Earlier cuts in emissions would have a greater effect in reducing climate change than comparable reductions made later. In addition, reducing emissions of some shorter-lived heat-trapping gases, such as methane, and some types of particles, such as soot, would begin to reduce warming within weeks to decades. Climate-related changes have already been observed globally and in the United States. These include increases in air and water temperatures, reduced frost days, increased frequency and intensity of heavy downpours, a rise in sea level, and reduced snow cover, glaciers, permafrost, and sea ice. A longer ice-free period on lakes and rivers, lengthening of the growing season, and increased water vapor in the atmosphere have also been observed. Over the past 30 years, temperatures have risen faster in winter than in any other season, with average winter temperatures in the Midwest and northern Great Plains increasing more than 7ºF. Some of the changes have been faster than previous assessments had suggested. These climate-related changes are expected to continue while new ones develop. Likely future changes for the United States and surrounding coastal waters include more intense hurricanes with related increases in wind, rain, and storm surges (but not necessarily an increase in the number of these storms that make landfall), as well as drier conditions in the Southwest and Caribbean. These changes will affect human health, water supply, agriculture, coastal areas, and many other aspects of society and the natural environment. This report synthesizes information from a wide variety of scientific assessments (see page 7) and recently published research to summarize what is known about the observed and projected consequences of climate change on the United States. It combines analysis of impacts on various sectors such as energy, water, and transportation at the national level with an assessment of key impacts on specific regions of the United States. For example, sea-level rise will increase risks of erosion, storm surge damage, and flooding for coastal communities, especially in the Southeast and parts of Alaska. Reduced snowpack and earlier snow melt will alter the timing and amount of water supplies, posing significant challenges for water resource management in the West. (PDF contains 196 pages)

History, origins and importance of temporary ponds

In Europe, temporary ponds are a naturally common and widespread habitat occurring, often in abundance, in all biogeographical regions from the boreal snow-melt pools of northern Scandinavia to the seasonally inundated coastal dune pools of southern Spain. Ecological studies in Europe and elsewhere also emphasise that temporary ponds are a biologically important habitat type, renowned both for their specialised assemblages and the considerable numbers of rare and endemic species they support. They are, however, a habitat currently under considerable threat. Most temporary ponds are inherently shallow and the majority are destroyed even by limited soil drainage for agriculture or urban development. The paper gives an overview of definitions of temporary ponds and examines their formation and abundance. The authors also summarise a visit to the Bialowieza Forest in Poland to investigate the occurrence of temporary ponds.

Life cycle of Pisidium obtusale Jenyns. [Translation from: Informatsionnyi Byulleten Biologiya Vnutrennikh Vod No.3 17-21, 1969.]

Pisidium obtusale in the neighbourhood of Borka occurs in deep pools on upland bogs. The majority of water-bodies where this mollusc lives are temporary. Their bottoms are covered with sedges, and sometimes mosses occur. Evidently there is a marked attraction of P. obtusale to places overgrown by willow. In pools remote from scrub or woody vegetation it does not appear. Temporary water-bodies fill up with melt water in the middle or the end of April and finally dry up at the end of July or the beginning of August. Observations on the life cycle of P. obtusale started on 21 April 1966, following on the filling-up of the water-body by melt water. The findings of the study are presented in this paper.

Nutrient enhanced coastal ocean productivity in the north Gulf of Mexico: understanding the effects of nutrients on a coastal ecosystem

The continental shelf adjacent to the Mississippi River is a highly productive system, often referred to as the fertile fisheries crescent. This productivity is attributed to the effects of the river, especially nutrient delivery. In the later decades of the 2oth century, though, changes in the system were becoming evident. Nutrient loads were seen to be increasing and reports of hypoxia were becoming more frequent. During most recent summers, a broad area (up to 20,000 krn2) of near bottom, inner shelf waters immediately west of the Mississippi River delta becomes hypoxic (dissolved oxygen concentrations less than 2 mgll). In 1990, the Coastal Ocean Program of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration initiated the Nutrient Enhanced Coastal Ocean Productivity (NECOP) study of this area to test the hypothesis that anthropogenic nutrient addition to the coastal ocean has contributed to coastal eutrophication with a significant impact on water quality. Three major goals of the study were to determine the degree to which coastal productivity in the region is enhanced by terrestrial nutrient input, to determine the impact of enhanced productivity on water quality, and to determine the fate of fixed carbon and its impact on living marine resources. The study involved 49 federal and academic scientists from 14 institutions and cost $9.7 million. Field work proceeded from 1990 through 1993 and analysis through 1996, although some analyses continue to this day. The Mississippi River system delivers, on average, 19,000 m3/s of water to the northern Gulf of Mexico. The major flood of the river system occurs in spring following snow melt in the upper drainage basin. This water reaches the Gulf of Mexico through the Mississippi River birdfoot delta and through the delta of the Atchafalaya River. Much of this water flows westward along the coast as a highly stratified coastal current, the Louisiana Coastal Current, isolated from the bottom by a strong halocline and from mid-shelf waters by a strong salinity front. This stratification maintains dissolved and particulate matter from the rivers, as well as recycled material, in a well-defined flow over the inner shelf. It also inhibits the downward mixing of oxygenated surface waters from the surface layer to the near bottom waters. This highly stratified flow is readily identifiable by its surface turbidity, as it carries much of the fine material delivered with the river discharge and resuspended by nearshore wave activity. A second significant contribution to the turbidity of the surface waters is due to phytoplankton in these waters. This turbidity reduces the solar radiation penetrating to depth through the water column. These two aspects of the coastal current, isolation of the inner shelf surface waters and maintenance of a turbid surface layer, precondition the waters for the development of near bottom summer hypoxia.

Modeling the effect of snow on seasonal runoff within the Truckee River drainage basin

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): We estimate monthly runoff for a 2-dimensional solution domain containing those areas tributary to Pyramid Lake, Nevada (the Truckee River drainage basin) at a 1-kilometer grid cell spacing. ... To calculate the effect of snow on the hydrologic system, we perform two experiments. In the first we assume that all precipitation falls as rain; in the second we assume that some precipitation falls as snow, thus available water is a combination of rain and snowmelt. We find that considering the effect of snow results in a more accurate representation of mean monthly flow rates, in particular the peak flow during the melt season in the Sierra Nevada. These preliminary results indicate that a relatively simple snow model can improve the representation of Truckee River basin hydrology, significantly reducing errors in modeled seasonal runoff.

Hydrobiological status of a lesser Himalayan river

It is generally observed that a variety of physical and chemical variables have considerable impact on the biological life in a mountain river which include plankton, benthic algae, benthic invertebrate and finally the fishery resources. They are often subjected to extreme hydrological disturbances particularly during rainy seasons when increased volume of water create 'Wash Off' situation for existing fauna and flora. A case study of a lesser Himalayan river - the Gaula, which drains the south-central part of Kumaon region in Uttaranchal is presented here. Since this river does not get snow-melt water, it mainly depends on steady flow of the groundwater round the year. The climate of the area is characterized with long winters, short summer and good amount of rain during monsoon months. The infiltrated groundwater which seeps into the surface soil layers during monsoon seasons is the chief source of discharge of water during winter and summer season