Least Squares Estimation Principle and its Geometrical Interpretation

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Estimation of the abundance of yellowfin tuna, Thunnus albacares, by age groups and regions within the Eastern Pacific Ocean

ENGLISH: Monthly estimates of the abundance of yellowfin tuna by age groups and regions within the eastern Pacific Ocean during 1970-1988 are made, using purse-seine catch rates, length-frequency samples, and results from cohort analysis. The numbers of individuals caught of each age group in each logged purse-seine set are estimated, using the tonnage from that set and length-frequency distribution from the "nearest" length-frequency sample(s). Nearest refers to the closest length frequency sample(s) to the purse-seine set in time, distance, and set type (dolphin associated, floating object associated, skipjack associated, none of these, and some combinations). Catch rates are initially calculated as the estimated number of individuals of the age group caught per hour of searching. Then, to remove the effects of set type and vessel speed, they are standardized, using separate weiznted generalized linear models for each age group. The standardized catch rates at the center of each 2.5 0 quadrangle-month are estimated, using locally-weighted least-squares regressions on latitude, longitude and date, and then combined into larger regions. Catch rates within these regions are converted to numbers of yellowfin, using the mean age composition from cohort analysis. The variances of the abundance estimates within regions are large for 0-, 1-, and 5-year-olds, but small for 1.5- to 4-year-olds, except during periods of low fishing activity. Mean annual catch rate estimates for the entire eastern Pacific Ocean are significantly positively correlated with mean abundance estimates from cohort analysis for age groups ranging from 1.5 to 4 years old. Catch-rate indices of abundance by age are expected to be useful in conjunction with data on reproductive biology to estimate total egg production within regions. The estimates may also be useful in understanding geographic and temporal variations in age-specific availability to purse seiners, as well as age-specific movements. SPANISH: Se calculan estimaciones mensuales de la abundancia del atún aleta amarilla por grupos de edad y regiones en el Océano Pacífico oriental durante 1970-1988, usando tasas de captura cerquera, muestras de frecuencia de talla, y los resultados del análisis de cohortes. Se estima el número de individuos capturados de cada grupo de edad en cada lance cerquero registrado, usando el tonelaje del lance en cuestión y la distribución de frecuencia de talla de la(s) muestra(s) de frecuencia de talla "más cercana/s)," "Más cercana" significa la(s) muestra(s) de frecuencia de talla más parecida(s) al lance cerquero en cuanto a fecha, distancia, y tipo de lance (asociado con delfines, con objeto flotante, con barrilete, con ninguno de éstos, y algunas combinaciones). Se calculan inicialmente las tasas de captura como el número estimado de individuos del grupo de edad capturado por hora de búsqueda. A continuación, para eliminar los efectos del tipo de lance y la velocidad del barco, se estandardizan dichas tasas, usando un modelo lineal generalizado ponderado, para cada grupo por separado. Se estima la tasa de captura estandardizada al centro de cada cuadrángulo de 2.5°-mes, usando regresiones de mínimos cuadrados ponderados localmente por latitud, longitud, y fecha, y entonces combinándolas en regiones mayores. Se convierten las tasas de captura dentro de estas regiones en números de aletas amarillas individuales, usando el número promedio por edad proveniente del análisis de cohortes. Las varianzas de las estimaciones de la abundancia dentro de las regiones son grandes para los peces de O, 1, Y5 años de edad, pero pequeñas para aquellos de entre 1.5 Y4 años de edad, excepto durante períodos de poca actividad pesquera. Las estimaciones de la tasa de captura media anual para todo el Océano Pacífico oriental están correlacionadas positivamente de forma significativa con las estimaciones de la abundancia media del análisis de las cohortes para los grupos de edad de entre 1.5 y 4 años. Se espera que los índices de abundancia por edad basados en las tasas de captura sean útiles, en conjunto con datos de la biología reproductiva, para estimar la producción total de huevos por regiones. Las estimaciones podrían asimismo ser útiles para la comprensión de las variaciones geográficas y temporales de la disponibilidad específica por edad a los barcos cerqueros, y también las migraciones específicas por edad. (PDF contains 35 pages.)

Relationship between fish size and otolith length for 63 species of fishes from the Eastern North Pacific Ocean

Otoliths commonly are used to determine the taxon, age, and size of fishes. This information is useful for population management, predator-prey studies, and archaeological research. The relationship between the length of a fish and the length of its otoliths remains unknown for many species of marine fishes in the Pacific Ocean. Therefore, the relationships between fish length and fish weight, and between otolith length and fish length, were developed for 63 species of fishes caught in the eastern North Pacific Ocean. We also summarized similar relationships for 46 eastern North Pacific fish species reported in the literature. The relationship between fish length and otolith length was linear, and most of the variability was explained by a simple least-squares regression (r 2 > 0.700 for 45 of 63 species). The relationship between otolith length and fish length was not significantly different between left and right otoliths for all but one fish species. Images of otoliths from 77 taxa are included to assist in the identification of species. (PDF file contains 38 pages.)

Population dynamics of the skipjack tuna (Katsuwonus pelamis) of the Eastern Pacific Ocean

ENGLISH: Catches of skipjack tuna supporting major fisheries in parts of the western, central and eastern Pacific Ocean have increased in recent years; thus, it is important to examine the dynamics of the fishery to determine man's effect on the abundance of the stocks. A general linear hypothesis model was developed to standardize fishing effort to a single vessel size and gear type. Standardized effort was then used to compute an index of abundance which accounts for seasonal variability in the fishing area. The indices of abundance were highly variable from year to year in both the northern and southern areas of the fishery but indicated a generally higher abundance in the south. Data from 438 fish tagged and recovered in the eastern Pacific Ocean were used to compute growth curves. A least-squares technique was used to estimate the parameters of the von Bertalanffy growth function. Two estimates of the parameters were made by analyzing the same data in different ways. For the first set of estimates, K= 0.819 on an annual instantaneous basis and L= 729 mm; for the second, K = 0.431 and L=881. These compared well with estimates derived using the Chapman-Richards growth function, which includes the von Bertalanffy function as a special case. It was concluded that the latter function provided an adequate empirical fit to the skipjack data since the more complicated function did not significantly improve the fit. Tagging data from three cruises involving 8852 releases and 1777 returns were used to compute mortality rates during the time the fish were in the fishery. Two models were used in the analyses. The best estimates of the catchability coefficient (q) in the north and south were 8.4 X 10- 4 and 5.0 X 10- 5 respectively. The other loss rate (X), which included losses due to emigration, natural mortality and mortality due to carrying a tag, was 0.14 on an annual instantaneous basis for both areas. To detect the possible effect of fishing on abundance and total yield, the relation between abundance and effort and between total catch and effort was examined. It was found that at levels of intensity observed in the fishery, fishing does not appear to have had any measurable effect on the stocks. It was concluded therefore that the total catch could probably be increased by substantially increasing total effort beyond the present level, and that the fluctuations in abundance are fishery-independent. The estimates of growth, mortality and fishing effort were used to compute yield-per-recruitment isopleths for skipjack in both the northern and southern areas. For a size at first entry of about 425 mm, the yield per recruitment was calculated at 3 pounds in the north and 1.5 pounds in the south. In both areas it would be possible to increase the yield per recruitment by increasing fishing effort. It was not possible to assess potential production of the skipjack stocks fished in the eastern Pacific, except to note that the fishery had not affected their abundance and that they were certainly under-exploited. It was concluded that the northern and southern stocks could support increased harvests, especially the latter. SPANISH: Las capturas de atún barrilete que sostienen las pesquerías principales de la parte occidental, central y oriental del Océano Pacífico han aumentado en los últimos años; así que es importante examinar la dinámica de la pesquería para determinar el efecto que pueda tener sobre la abundancia de los stocks. Se desarrolló un modelo hipotético, lineal para standardizar el esfuerzo de pesca a un solo tamaño de barco y tipo de arte. Luego se usó el esfuerzo standardizado para computar un índice de la abundancia que pueda dar razón de la variabilidad estacional en el área de pesca. Los índices de la abundancia variaron mucho de un año a otro tanto en el área septentrional como en el área meridional de la pesquería, pero indicaron una abundancia generalmente superior en el sur. Se emplearon los datos de 438 peces marcados y recuperados en el Océano Pacífico oriental para computar las curvas de crecimiento. Una técnica de mínimos cuadrados fue usada para estimar los parámetros de la función de crecimiento de van Bertalanffy. Se hicieron dos estimativos de los parámetros mediante el análisis de los mismos datos, de diferente manera. Para el primer juego de estimativos, K=0.819 sobre una base anual instantánea y L∞=729 mm; para el segundo, K=0.431 y L∞=881. Estos se correlacionaron bien con los estimativos obtenidos usando la función de crecimiento de Chapman-Richards, que incluye la de von Bertalanffy como un caso especial. Se decidió que la última función proveía un ajuste empírico, adecuado a los datos del barrilete, ya que la función más complicada no mejoró significativamente el ajuste. Los datos de marcación de tres cruceros incluyendo 8852 liberaciones y 1777 retornos, fueron usados para computar las tasas de mortalidad durante el tiempo en que los peces estuvieron en la pesquería. Se usaron dos modelos en los análisis. Los mejores estimativos del coeficiente de capturabilidad (q) en el norte y en el sur fueron 8.4 X 10-4 y 5.0 X 10-5 , respectivamente. La otra tasa de pérdida (X), la cual incluyó pérdidas debidas a la emigración, mortalidad natural y mortalidad debida a llevar una marca, fue 0.14 sobre una base anual instantánea para las dos áreas. Con el fin de descubrir el efecto que posiblemente pueda tener la pesca sobre la abundancia y el rendimiento total, se examinó la relación entre la abundancia y el esfuerzo y entre la captura total y el esfuerzo. Se encontró que a los niveles de la intensidad observada en la pesquería, la pesca no parece haber tenido ningún efecto perceptible en los stocks. Por lo tanto se decidió que mediante un aumento substancial del esfuerzo total, más allá del nivel actual, la captura total probablemente podría aumentarse, y que las fluctuaciones de la abundancia son independientes de la pesquería. Los estimativos del crecimiento, mortalidad y esfuerzo de pesca fueron usados para computar las isopletas del rendimiento por recluta del barrilete, tanto en las áreas del norte como del sur. Para una talla de primera entrada de unos 425 mm, el rendimiento por recluta fue calculado en 3 libras en el norte y 1.5 libras en el sur. En ambas áreas sería posible aumentar el rendimiento por recluta mediante un aumento del esfuerzo de pesca. No fue posible determinar la producción potencial de los stocks del barrilete pescado en el Pacífico oriental, excepto para observar que la pesquería no ha afectado su abundancia y que ciertamente se encuentran subexplotados. Se concluyó que los stocks norte y sur pueden soportar un aumento en el rendimiento, especialmente este último. (PDF contains 274 pages.)

Biologie de Penaeus duorarum notialis en Côte d'Ivoire. 5 - Nouvelle étude de la croissance

Von Bertalanffy's growth curve parameters K, L∞ and t'o have been estimated for female Penaeus duorarum by modal progression analysis, using the "successive maximums method" of Gheno and Le Guen (1968) for the polymodal size frequency curves analysis and the Tomlinson and Abrahamson's least squares method for parameters computations. For the male the authors used an original method to get an age/length key. The parameters were calculated by Gulland's graphical method (1969).

Biologie de Ethmalosa fimbriata (Bowdich) en Côte d'Ivoire. 2 - Étude de la croissance en lagune par la méthode de Petersen

Ethmalosa growth curves (calculated by the least squares method) were determined from weekly samplings in Ebrié Lagoon. In order to obtain more accurate results than with a modal decomposition, the author used directly the modal values of the samples. One-year-old ethmalosa is about 15 cm long (fork length). For older fish, growth data seem to be disturbed by migrations: fish measuring >25 cm do not appear in the lagoon. Ethmalosa would spend the first year of its life in the lagoon, where it hatches and reproduces, and would migrate to the sea during its second year.

Evaluating methods for estimating rare events with zero-heavy data: a simulation model estimating sea turtle bycatch in the pelagic longline fishery

Estimating rare events from zero-heavy data (data with many zero values) is a common challenge in fisheries science and ecology. For example, loggerhead sea turtles (Caretta caretta) and leatherback sea turtles (Dermochelys coriacea) account for less than 1% of total catch in the U.S. Atlantic pelagic longline fishery. Nevertheless, the Southeast Fisheries Science Center (SEFSC) of the National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS) is charged with assessing the effect of this fishery on these federally protected species. Annual estimates of loggerhead and leatherback bycatch in a fishery can affect fishery management and species conservation decisions. However, current estimates have wide confidence intervals, and their accuracy is unknown. We evaluate 3 estimation methods, each at 2 spatiotemporal scales, in simulations of 5 spatial scenarios representing incidental capture of sea turtles by the U.S. Atlantic pelagic longline fishery. The delta-log normal method of estimating bycatch for calendar quarter and fishing area strata was the least biased estimation method in the spatial scenarios believed to be most realistic. This result supports the current estimation procedure used by the SEFSC.

Parameterizing probabilities for estimating age-composition distributions for mixture models

When estimating parameters that constitute a discrete probability distribution {pj}, it is difficult to determine how constraints should be made to guarantee that the estimated parameters { pˆj} constitute a probability distribution (i.e., pˆj>0, Σ pˆj =1). For age distributions estimated from mixtures of length-at-age distributions, the EM (expectationmaximization) algorithm (Hasselblad, 1966; Hoenig and Heisey, 1987; Kimura and Chikuni, 1987), restricted least squares (Clark, 1981), and weak quasisolutions (Troynikov, 2004) have all been used. Each of these methods appears to guarantee that the estimated distribution will be a true probability distribution with all categories greater than or equal to zero and with individual probabilities that sum to one. In addition, all these methods appear to provide a theoretical basis for solutions that will be either maximum-likelihood estimates or at least convergent to a probability distribut

Length-weight relationship of fishes from Yemen waters (Gulf of Aden and Red Sea)

The data for this study were gathered between 1993 and 1996 on board commercial trawlers from Somalia, China and Yemen and also from the research vessel Ibn Magid belonging to the Marine Science and Resources Research Centre, Aden, Republic of Yemen. Fish were identified using the FAO species identification literature. All fish were measured to the nearest mm (total length) and weighed to the nearest g. Sex was determined by dissection after the length and weight had been measured. The length-weight relationships were calculated using least-squares regression on log-transformed data and the parameters of the relationship of the form of W=aL super(b) are summarized. Maximum and minimum size of fish sampled are also given. Common names and recent changes in nomenclature were taken from ICLARM's FishBase.

An evaluation of back-calculation methodology using simulated otolith data

I simulated somatic growth and accompanying otolith growth using an individual-based bioenergetics model in order to examine the performance of several back-calculation methods. Four shapes of otolith radius-total length relations (OR-TL) were simulated. Ten different back-calculation equations, two different regression models of radius length, and two schemes of annulus selection were examined for a total of 20 different methods to estimate size at age from simulated data sets of length and annulus measurements. The accuracy of each of the twenty methods was evaluated by comparing the back-calculated length-at-age and the true length-at-age. The best back-calculation technique was directly related to how well the OR-TL model fitted. When the OR-TL was sigmoid shaped and all annuli were used, employing a least squares linear regression coupled with a log-transformed Lee back-calculation equation (y-intercept corrected) resulted in the least error; when only the last annulus was used, employing a direct proportionality back-calculation equation resulted in the least error. When the OR-TL was linear, employing a functional regression coupled with the Lee back-calculation equation resulted in the least error when all annuli were used, and also when only the last annulus was used. If the OR-TL was exponentially shaped, direct substitution into the fitted quadratic equation resulted in the least error when all annuli were used, and when only the last annulus was used. Finally, an asymptotically shaped OR-TL was best modeled by the individually corrected Weibull cumulative distribution function when all annuli were used, and when only the last annulus was used.

Morphometric relationships of spineless cuttlefish, Sepiella inermis (Orbigny, 1848) from Mumbai waters

The relationships of various morphometric characters with dorsal mantle length (DML) of Sepiella inermis from Mumbai waters was established. The coefficient of correlation (r²) for various morphometric characters against dorsal mantle length ranged from 0.747 to 0.942 indicating high degree of relationship among the characters compared. The regression of characteristics obtained by least squares method for S. inermis indicates that the characters have positive allometric growth.