“El Niño” study based on analysis of ocean surface temperatures 1935-57

ENGLISH: The following report describes the findings of an "El Niño" project carried out at the Department of Meteorology of the University of California, Los Angeles, at the request of, and with funds provided from, the Inter-American Tropical Tuna Commission. The project was, in its early stages, supervised by Professor M. Neiburger, but was in June 1959 transferred to Professor J. Bjerknes, who thereby became the sole author of this final report. Readers who may be interested in the general background of knowledge of the maritime meteorology of the Eastern Pacific are herewith referred to Professor Neiburger's final report of the "Subtropical Pacific Meteorology Project." That report, submitted in September 1958 to the Office of Naval Research, summarizes the results of all the meteorological soundings released at sea since 1949 from California in the north to Peru in the south. The soundings off Ecuador and Peru were all taken by the "Shellback" expedition during July 1952. Important as this first exploration of the atmosphere over the Eastern Equatorial Pacific was, it did not even begin to explore " El Niño " itself, which is confined to the southern summer season and, moreover, only reaches catastrophic proportions in a few exceptional years. SPANISH: Este estudio da a conocer los resultados de una investigación que, bajo el nombre de Proyecto "El Niño", ha sido efectuada en el Departamento de Meteorología de la Universidad de California, Los Angeles, a solicitud de la Comisión Interamericana del Atún Tropical y con fondos provistos por ésta. En sus primeras etapas, el proyecto fué supervisado por el Profesor M. Neiburger, pero en junio de 1959 fué transferido al Profesor J. Bjerknes, quien de este modo vino a ser el solo autor de este informe final. A los lectores interesados en los conocimientos de fondo de la meteorología marítima del Pacífico Oriental se les recomienda consultar el informe final del Profesor Neiburger intitulado "Subtropical Pacific Meteorology Project". Este informe, sometido a la "Office of Naval Research" en septiembre de 1958 sumariza los resultados de todos los sondeos meteorológicos efectuados en el mar desde 1949 en el área entre California en el norte y Perú en el sur. Todos los sondeos frente al Ecuador y el Perú fueron hechos por la Expedición "Shellback" durante el mes de julio de 1952. Importante como fué esta primera exploración de la atmósfera sobre el Pacífico Ecuatorial del Este, ni siquiera comenzó a explorar "El Niño" en sí, que se confina a la estación de verano en el sur y, más aún, sólo alcanza proporciones catastróficas en unos pocos años excepcionales.

Year class mortality, abundance and yield-per-recruit of yellowfin tuna in the eastern Pacific Ocean, 1954-1959

ENGLISH: One primary duty of the Inter-American Tropical Tuna Commission is to estimate the maximum sustainable catches of yellowfin tuna (Neothunnus macropterus) and skipjack (Katsuwonus pelamis), and to investigate and recommend proposals to maintain the stocks at levels which will permit these catches to be obtained. To do this, there is required some means of predicting yields relative to fishing intensity. . . The age composition of catch, and growth rate of yellowfin tuna for recent years have now been estimated (Hennemuth, 1961). In this paper, relative abundance at age of yellowfin tuna shall be estimated -and used, in turn, to estimate total mortality rate. Yield-per-recruit calculations, based on Beverton and Holt's (1957) simple equation, will be presented to compare present utilization with theoretical maxima under varying levels of fishing mortality and different ages at first capture. SPANISH: Uno de los principales deberes de la Comisión Interamericana del Atún Tropical es estimar las pescas máximas sostenibles de los atunes aleta amarilla (Neothunnus macropterus) y barrilete (Katsuwonus pelamis) , así como estudiar y recomendar proposiciones para mantener los stocks a niveles que permitan obtener estas pescas. Para lograr este propósito se requieren algunos medios que permitan predecir el rendimiento en relación con la intensidad de la pesca. . La composición de edades de la pesca y la tasa de crecimiento del atún aleta amarilla en años recientes han sido estimadas ahora (Hennemuth, 1961). En este trabajo, la abundancia relativa a una edad dada de esta especie será estimada y usada, a su vez, para estimar la tasa de mortalidad total. Los cálculos del rendimiento por recluta, basados en la ecuación simple de Beverton y Holt (1957), serán presentados para comparar la utilización actual con los máximos teóricos bajo valores variables de mortalidad por la pesca y a diferentes edades a la primera captura.

Distribution of catch-per-unit-of-effort and fishing effort for tuna in the Eastern Tropical Pacific Ocean by months of the year 1951-1960

ENGLISH: Comparison of physical and biological environmental factors affecting the aggregation of tunas with the success of fishing by the commercial fleets, requires that catch and effort data be examined in greater detail than has been presented in these publications. Consequently, the United States Bureau of Commercial Fisheries Biological Laboratory, San Diego, to serve the needs of its program of research on causes of variations in tuna abundance, made arrangements with the Tuna Commission to summarize these catch and effort data by month, by one-degree area, by fishing vessel size-class, for the years 1951-1960 for bait boats and 1953-1960 for purse-seiners. The present paper describes the techniques employed in summarizing these data by automatic data processing methods. It also presents the catch and effort information by months, by five-degree areas and certain combinations of five-degree areas for use by fishermen, industry personnel, and research agencies. Because of space limitations and other considerations, the one-degree tabulations are not included but are available at the Tuna Commission and Bureau laboratories. SPANISH: La comparación de los factores ambientales físicos y biológicos que afectan la agrupación del atún, con el éxito obtenido en la pesca por las flotas comerciales, requiere que los datos sobre la captura y el esfuerzo sean examinados con mayor detalle de lo que han sido presentados en estas publicaciones. En consecuencia, el Laboratorio Biológico del Buró de Pesquerías Comerciales de los Estados Unidos, situado en San Diego, a fin de llenar los requisitos de su programa de investigación sobre las causas de las variaciones en la abundancia del atún, hizo arreglos con la Comisión del Atún para sumarizar esos datos sobre la captura y el esfuerzo por meses, por áreas de un grado, por clases de tamaño de las embarcaciones de pesca durante los años 1951-1960 en lo que concierne a los barcos de carnada y durante el período 1953-1960 en lo que respecta a los barcos rederos. El presente trabajo describe la técnica empleada en la sumarización de dichos datos mediante métodos automáticos de manejo de datos. También se da aquí la información sobre la captura y el esfuerzo por meses, por áreas de cinco grados y ciertas combinaciones de áreas de cinco grados para el uso de los pescadores, del personal de la industria y de las oficinas de investigación. Por falta de espacio y otras razones, las tabulaciones de las áreas de un grado no han sido incluídos en este trabajo, pero están a la disposición de quien tenga interés en los laboratorios de la Comisión del Atún y del Buró.

Catch-per-unit-effort and biological parameters from the Massachusetts coastal lobster (Homarus americanus) resource: Description and trends

Acomprehensive description of the Massachusetts coastal lobster (Homarus americanus) resou,rce was obtained by sampling commercial catches coastwide at sea and at dealerships between 1981 and 1986. Acommercial lobster sea-sampling program, wherein six coastal regions were sampled monthly, with an areal and temporal data weighting design, was the primary source of data. An improved index of catch per trap haul/set-over-day was generated by modeling the relationship between catch and immersion time and standardizing effort. This 6-year time-series of mean annual catch rates tracked closely the landings trend for territorial waters. During the study period there was a gradual increase in indices of exploitation and total annual mortality which corresponded to a gradual decline in mean carapace length of marketable lobster. The frequency of culls escalated from 10.0% in 1981 to 20.9% in 1986, while the percentage of lobster found dead in traps was consistently less than 1%. The sex ratio (%F:%M) was significantly different from 50:50 and approximated a 60:40 relationship during the study period. Male and female weight-length relationships were significantly different. Females weighed more than males at smaller sizes and less than males at larger sizes. A north-south clinal trend was evident wherein lobster north of Cape Cod weighed less at length than those from regions south of Cape Cod. Functional size-maturity relationships were developed for female lobster by staging cement gland development. Proportions mature at size represent more realistic values than those obtained by analyses of percent of females ovigerous. Regional variation occurred in most of the parameters studied. Three lobster groups, differing in major population descriptors, are defined by our data.(PDF file contains 28 pages.)

Catches per unit of effort of bigeye tuna: a new analysis with regression trees and simulated annealing

ENGLISH: We analyzed catches per unit of effort (CPUE) from the Japanese longline fishery for bigeye tuna (Thunnus obesus) in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean (EPO) with regression tree methods. Regression trees have not previously been used to estimate time series of abundance indices fronl CPUE data. The "optimally sized" tree had 139 parameters; year, month, latitude, and longitude interacted to affect bigeye CPUE. The trend in tree-based abundance indices for the EPO was similar to trends estimated from a generalized linear model and fronl an empirical model that combines oceanographic data with information on the distribution of fish relative to environmental conditions. The regression tree was more parsimonious and would be easier to implement than the other two nl0dels, but the tree provided no information about the nlechanisms that caused bigeye CPUEs to vary in time and space. Bigeye CPUEs increased sharply during the mid-1980's and were more variable at the northern and southern edges of the fishing grounds. Both of these results can be explained by changes in actual abundance and changes in catchability. Results from a regression tree that was fitted to a subset of the data indicated that, in the EPO, bigeye are about equally catchable with regular and deep longlines. This is not consistent with observations that bigeye are more abundant at depth and indicates that classification by gear type (regular or deep longline) may not provide a good measure of capture depth. Asimulated annealing algorithm was used to summarize the tree-based results by partitioning the fishing grounds into regions where trends in bigeye CPUE were similar. Simulated annealing can be useful for designing spatial strata in future sampling programs. SPANISH: Analizamos la captura por unidad de esfuerzo (CPUE) de la pesquería palangrera japonesa de atún patudo (Thunnus obesus) en el Océano Pacifico oriental (OPO) y central con métodos de árbol de regresión. Hasta ahora no se han usado árboles de regresión para estimar series de tiempo de índices de abundancia a partir de datos de CPUE. EI árbol de "tamaño optimo" tuvo 139 parámetros; ano, mes, latitud, y longitud interactuaron para afectar la CPUE de patudo. La tendencia en los índices de abundancia basados en árboles para el OPO fue similar a las tendencias estimadas con un modelo lineal generalizado y con un modelo empírico que combina datos oceanográficos con información sobre la distribución de los peces en relación con las condiciones ambientales. EI árbol de regresión fue mas parsimonioso y seria mas fácil de utilizar que los dos otros modelos, pero no proporciono información sobre los mecanismos que causaron que las CPUE de patudo valiaran en el tiempo y en el espacio. Las CPUE de patudo aumentaron notablemente a mediados de los anos 80 y fueron mas variables en los extremos norte y sur de la zona de pesca. Estos dos resultados pueden ser explicados por cambios en la abundancia real y cambios en la capturabilidad. Los resultados de un arbal de regresión ajustado a un subconjunto de los datos indican que, en el OPO, el patudo es igualmente capturable con palangres regulares y profundos. Esto no es consistente con observaciones de que el patudo abunda mas a profundidad e indica que clasificación por tipo de arte (palangre regular 0 profundo) podría no ser una buena medida de la profundidad de captura. Se uso un algoritmo de templado simulado para resumir los resultados basados en el árbol clasificando las zonas de pesca en zonas con tendencias similares en la CPUE de patudo. El templado simulado podría ser útil para diseñar estratos espaciales en programas futuros de muestreo. (PDF contains 45 pages.)

Analysis of sex-specific spawning biomass per recruit of the sailfish (Istiophorus platypterus) in the waters off eastern Taiwan

Analyses of sex-specific yield per recruit and spawning stock biomass per recruit were conducted to evaluate the current status of the sailfish (Istiophorus platypterus) fishery in the waters off eastern Taiwan. Natural mortality rates estimated from Pauly’s empirical equation were 0.26/yr for females and 0.27/yr for males. The current fishing mortality rates were estimated as 0.24/yr and 0.43/yr for females and males, respectively, which are much lower than the estimated F0 .1 (0.62/yr and 0.79/yr for females and males, respectively) and FSSB40 (0.46/yr for females) which are commonly used as target reference points in fisheries management. The effects of the fishing mortality, natural mortality, and age at first capture on the estimates of biological reference points were evaluated by using the Monte Carlo simulation. The results indicate that failure to consider the uncertainty in parameters such as natural mortality or age at first capture may lead to the improper estimation of biological reference points. This study indicates the possibility of current fishing mortality exceeding the target biological reference points may be negligible for sailfish in the waters off eastern Taiwan. However, in view of the recent rapid increase in fishing effort, it is evident that the stock status and development of the fishery need to be closely monitore

Growth, mortality and yield-per-recruit of the poor cod, Trisopterus minutus capelanus, from the Strait of Sicily

Length-based methods (LBMs) were used to study the growth of Trisopterus minutus capelanus in the Strait of Sicily (Messina Strait). A total of 16,304 'merluzzetto' or poor cod collected by experimental trawling off the southern coast of Sicily during spring, summer, autumn 1986 and winter 1987 were measured in order to estimate the length structure of the population. Length-frequency distribution were analyzed and normal components were discriminated. Von Bertalanffy growth parameters were derived from the mean length of the normal components. The growth parameters obtained by weighted non-linear regression were: K=0.462 (yr super(1)), L sub( infinity )=222.3 (TL,mm) and t sub(o)=-0.679 yr. The resulting growth performance index ( Phi ') was 4.36, a value slightly lower than those derived for Western Mediterranean (mean Phi '=4.45) and Adriatic ( Phi '=4.58) populations and slightly higher than that derived for Hellenic waters ( Phi '=4.27). On the basis of the von Bertalanffy parameters estimated, an array of age-specific instantaneous natural mortality rate (M sub(t)=0.5-1.1) and an average value of total natural mortality rate (Z=2.1 yr super(1)) were estimated and used in the Thompson and Bell yield per recruit (Y/R) analysis in order to evaluate the status of the fishery and forecast the effects of changes in the fishing pattern. Results indicate that this resource is overexploited and that Y/R could be increased by postponing the age at first capture from 0.5 to 1.0 yr. Even a slight reduction in fishing mortality could improve the performance of the fishery. At the present level of exploitation, and assuming a constant recruitment, the spawning stock biomass per recruit (SPR) is well below the conservative threshold of 30% of the pristine or unexploited SPR.

Sex-change rules, stock dynamics, and the performance of spawning-per-recruit measures in protogynous stocks

Predicting and under-standing the dynamics of a population requires knowledge of vital rates such as survival, growth, and reproduction. However, these variables are influenced by individual behavior, and when managing exploited populations, it is now generally realized that knowledge of a species’ behavior and life history strategies is required. However, predicting and understanding a response to novel conditions—such as increased fishing-induced mortality, changes in environmental conditions, or specific management strategies—also require knowing the endogenous or exogenous cues that induce phenotypic changes and knowing whether these behaviors and life history patterns are plastic. Although a wide variety of patterns of sex change have been observed in the wild, it is not known how the specific sex-change rule and cues that induce sex change affect stock dynamics. Using an individual based model, we examined the effect of the sex-change rule on the predicted stock dynamics, the effect of mating group size, and the performance of traditional spawning-per-recruit (SPR) measures in a protogynous stock. We considered four different patterns of sex change in which the probability of sex change is determined by 1) the absolute size of the individual, 2) the relative length of individuals at the mating site, 3) the frequency of smaller individuals at the mating site, and 4) expected reproductive success. All four pat-terns of sex change have distinct stock dynamics. Although each sex-change rule leads to the prediction that the stock will be sensitive to the size-selective fishing pattern and may crash if too many reproductive size classes are fished, the performance of traditional spawning-per-recruit measures, the fishing pattern that leads to the greatest yield, and the effect of mating group size all differ distinctly for the four sex-change rules. These results indicate that the management of individual species requires knowledge of whether sex change occurs, as well as an understanding of the endogenous or exogenous cues that induce sex change.