On the trail of interannual variability in phytoplankton and climate [abstract and figures]

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): A selective but nontheless real record of phytoplankton activity over the Santa Barbara Basin can be obtained from the underlying varved sediments. The phytoplankton groups preserved are: diatoms (frustrules and spores), silicoflagellates, dinoflagellates (cysts) and coccoliths.

Interannual variability of siliceous phytoplankton fluxes and relationships with hydrography in the northeastern subarctic Pacific, 1982-1986 [abstract and figures]

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): Time-series flux variabilities of biogenic opal particles were measured during 1982-1986 at pelagic Station PAPA (50° N, 145° W) located just south of the Gulf of Alaska, eastern North Pacific. PARFLUX sediment traps with two week sampling increments were deployed at 1000 m and 3800 m in 4200 m deep water, yielding nearly continuous time-series flux records for four years. The flux data allowed us to examine interannual and seasonal variabilities of siliceous phytoplankton production as well as environmental signals retained within the siliceous shells, which can be used to reconstruct environments.

Interannual variability in the PFEG coastal upwelling indices

Numerous studies examine decadal-scale variability in basin-scale parameters in the Northern Pacific. Characterizing such interannual-to-interdecadal variability is essential to identifying long-term climate changes. The Pacific Fisheries Environmental Group (PFEG) coastal upwelling indices display variability on these time scales and may help explain the mechanisms responsible for such climate variability. ... In this study, examination of 49-year time series of monthly mean upwelling indices at the 15 PFEG-standard positions along the west coast of North America revealed variability on large spatial scales as well as temporal scales.

Seasonal Climatologies and Variability of Eastern Tropical Pacific Surface Waters

Interannual variability caused by the El Nino-Southern Oscillation in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean (ETP) is analogous to seasonal variability of comparable magnitude. Climatological spatial patterns and seasonal variability of physical variables that may affect the ETP ecosystem are presented and discussed. Surface temperature, surface salinity, mixed layer depth, thermocline depth, thermocline strength, and surface dynamic height were derived from bathythermograph, hydrocast, and CTD data. Surface current velocity, divergence, and upwelling velocity were derived from ship drift reports. Surface wind velocity, wind stress, wind divergence, wind stress curl, and Ekman pumping velocity were derived from gridded pseudostress data obtained from Florida State University. Seasonal maps of these variables, and their deviations from the annual mean, show different patterns of variation in Equatorial (S°S-SON) and Tropical Surface Water (SOlS0N). Seasonal shifts in the trade winds, which affect the strength of equatorial upwelling and the North Equatorial Countercurrent, cause seasonal variations in most variables. Seasonal and interannual variability of surface temperature, mixed layer depth, thermocline depth and wind stress were quantified. Surface temperature, mixed layer depth and thermocline depth, but not local wind stress, are less variable in Tropical Surface Water than in Equatorial Surface Water. Seasonal and interannual variability are close to equal in most of the ETP, within factors of 2 or less. (PDF file contains 70 pages.)

Trends and long-term variability of ocean properties at Ocean Station P in the northeast Pacific Ocean [abstract]

Twenty-seven years (1956-1983) of oceanographic data collected at Ocean Station P (50°N/145°W), as well as supplementary data obtained in its neighborhood, have been examined for trends and interannual variability in the northeast Pacific Ocean. There is evidence that the water is warming and freshening and that the isopycnal surfaces are deepening. Trends in oxyty are mostly not significant. The most common periods for the interannual variability appear to be 2 1/2 and 6-7 years. The vertical movement of water accounts for one half of the changes in temperature and salinity and 30% of those in oxyty. Other factors, such as a shift of water masses, may also be important.

ENSO and precipitation variability over Mexico during the last 90 years

Latin America has been shown to be susceptible to climatic anomalies during El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events (eg, Aceituno 1988; Ropelewshi and Halpert 1987; Kiladis and Diaz 1989). While these studies have emphasized ENSO-related rainfall and temperature anomalies over Central and South America, less work has been done on the climatic effects of ENSO over the Mexican region. In this study we are investigating interannual and intraseasonal fluctuation in temperature and precipitation over the southwestern United States and Mexico since the turn of the century. We are particularly interested in the effects of ENSO on the interannual variability over this region. This report focuses on the association between ENSO and interannual variability of precipitation over Mexico.

Analyses physico-chimiques des eaux de la Lagune Ebrié effectuées de 1979 à 1981 au cours des programmes "Variabilité interannuelle" et "Baie de Biétri"

Physico-chemical data collections aimed to assess the interannual variability of the lagoon hydroclimate and the impact of an airport dam on the water quality of the Ebrié lagoon.

Spatial and temporal distribution of grouper larvae (Serranidae: Epinephelinae: Epinephelini) in the Gulf of Mexico and Straits of Florida

Little is known about the seasonality and distribution of grouper larvae (Serranidae: Epinephelini) in the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic Ocean off the coast of the southeast United States. Grouper larvae were collected from a transect across the Straits of Florida in 2003 and 2004 and during the Southeast Area Monitoring and Assessment Program spring and fall surveys from 1982 through 2005. Analysis of these larval data provided information on location and timing of spawning, larval distribution patterns, and interannual occurrence for a group of species not easily studied as adults. Our analyses indicated that shelf-edge habitat is important for spawning of many species of grouper—some species for which data were not previously available. Spawning for some species may occur year-round, but two peak seasons are evident: late winter and late summer through early fall. Interannual variability in the use of three important subregions by species or groups of species was partially explained by environmental factors (surface temperature, surface salinity, and water depth). A shift in species dominance over the last three decades from spring-spawned species (most of the commercial species) to fall-spawned species also was documented. The results of these analyses expand our understanding of the basic distribution and spawning patterns of northwest Atlantic grouper species and indicate a need for further examination of the changing population structure of individual species and species dominance in the region.

Comparison of habitat-based indices of abundance with fishery-independent biomass estimates from bottom trawl surveys

Rockfish species are notoriously difficult to sample with multispecies bottom trawl survey methods. Typically, biomass estimates have high coefficients of variation and can fluctuate outside the bounds of biological reality from year to year. This variation may be due in part to their patchy distribution related to very specific habitat preferences. We successfully modeled the distribution of five commercially important and abundant rockf ish species. A two-stage modeling method (modeling both presence-absence and abundance) and a collection of important habitat variables were used to predict bottom trawl survey catch per unit of effort. The resulting models explained between 22% and 66% of the variation in rockfish distribution. The models were largely driven by depth, local slope, bottom temperature, abundance of coral and sponge, and measures of water column productivity (i.e., phytoplankton and zooplankton). A year-effect in the models was back-transformed and used as an index of the time series of abundance. The abundance index trajectories of three of five species were similar to the existing estimates of their biomass. In the majority of cases the habitat-based indices exhibited less interannual variability and similar precision when compared with stratified survey-based biomass estimates. These indices may provide for stock assessment models a more stable alternative to current biomass estimates produced by the multispecies bottom trawl survey in the Gulf of Alaska.

Removing observational noise from fisheries-independent time series data using ARIMA models

Abundance indices derived from fishery-independent surveys typically exhibit much higher interannual variability than is consistent with the within-survey variance or the life history of a species. This extra variability is essentially observation noise (i.e. measurement error); it probably reflects environmentally driven factors that affect catchability over time. Unfortunately, high observation noise reduces the ability to detect important changes in the underlying population abundance. In our study, a noise-reduction technique for uncorrelated observation noise that is based on autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) time series modeling is investigated. The approach is applied to 18 time series of finfish abundance, which were derived from trawl survey data from the U.S. northeast continental shelf. Although the a priori assumption of a random-walk-plus-uncorrelated-noise model generally yielded a smoothed result that is pleasing to the eye, we recommend that the most appropriate ARIMA model be identified for the observed time series if the smoothed time series will be used for further analysis of the population dynamics of a species.

Topic 1. Some steric-height features of the water off the Pacific coast of Canada; Topic 2. Possible warming of the water at station P in the northeast Pacific during 1956-1984 [abstract]

TOPIC 1: In terms of seasonal scale, temperature effect dominates the annual change of steric height in the open ocean whereas salinity effect controls it along the continental shelf. Large portion of the annual change of height relative to the 1000-db surface is contained in the upper 100m layer. However, in interannual scale large anomalies of steric height in the open ocean, are more often than not, caused by halosteric rather than thermosteric effect. At least in the open ocean the heights are almost totally determined by the behavior of deep water. Their interannual variability appears to be related to the cumulative effect of Eckman pumping. TOPIC 2: There is a "trend" that over the past 28 years the water at Station P has warmed. Least-square analysis indicates that this warming may be significant but shortening of the time-series data by approximately 10 years fails to show that this is the case. These "trends" have to be interpreted with care. The warming may be "apparent" in that it is not indicated clearly in the deep isopynal surfaces which, during the above period, have deepened. Thus warming at the isobaric surfaces may be the effect of the downward migration of the isopynal surfaces.

Co-oscillation of a fjord basin’s circulation with decade-long oceanographic, hydrologic, and climatic regimes: Puget Sound 1916-'87 [abstract]

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): Oceanographic, hydrologic, and climatic data collected during 1916-'87 in Puget Sound's Main Basin (~200 m x 5 km x 100 km) and approaches oscillate at low frequency between two regimes (I, II). The oscillation accounts for a large fraction of the interannual variability (41-75%) and the zero crossings between regimes span approximately a decade. ... The transition between regimes is accompanied by substantial changes in the horizontal pressure and density fields between the Pacific coast and the mixing zones leading to the Basin, as well as within the Basin itself.

Effect of sampling interval on estimates of larval supply

Estimates of larval supply can provide information on year-class strength that is useful for fisheries management. However, larval supply is difficult to monitor because long-term, high-frequency sampling is needed. The purpose of this study was to subsample an 11-year record of daily larval supply of blue crab (Callinectes sapidus) to determine the effect of sampling interval on variability in estimates of supply. The coefficient of variation in estimates of supply varied by 0.39 among years at a 2-day sampling interval and 0.84 at a 7-day sampling interval. For 8 of the 11 years, there was a significant correlation between mean daily larval supply and lagged fishery catch per trip (coefficient of correlation [r]=0.88). When these 8 years were subsampled, a 2-day sampling interval yielded a significant correlation with fishery data only 64.5% of the time and a 3-day sampling interval never yielded a significant correlation. Therefore, high-frequency sampling (daily or every other day) may be needed to characterize interannual variability in larval supply.

Age-validation of a leopard shark (Triakis semifasciata) recaptured after 20 years

On 10 July 1999, vertebrae bearing an oxytetracycline (OTC) time mark were retrieved from a tagged leopard shark (Triakis semifasciata) recaptured in San Francisco Bay, CA, after being at liberty for almost 20 years. An additional long-term leopard shark tag return was received in June 2001, for which growth information (but not vertebrae) was obtained. The first recapture is significant in that it represents the longest at-liberty period for an age-validated (OTC-injected) shark, extends and completes age validation for this species, spanning all age classes up to its estimated average maximum age, and provides an example of the persistence of the OTC time mark in an elasmobranch at liberty for almost 20 years. The recaptured leopard shark made in 2001 also provides valuable information on long-term growth from time of release to time of recapture. Findings are documented here so that other researchers are aware that validation is complete for this species, to present pertinent evidence of considerable interannual variability in growth in this species, and to report observations on processing difficulties relating to the ephemeral nature of the 20-yr-old OTC mark.

Evaluating the efficacy of managing West Coast groundfish resources through simulations

Management of West Coast groundfish resources by the Pacific Fishery Management Council involves Federal government and academic scientists conducting stock assessments, generally using the stock synthesis framework, applying the 40-10 rule to determine harvest guidelines for resources that are not overfished and conducting rebuilding analyses to determine harvest guidelines for resources that have been designated as overfished. However, this management system has not been evaluated in terms of its ability to satisfy the National Standard 1 goals of the Sustainable Fisheries Act. A Monte Carlo simulation framework is therefore outlined that can be used to make such evaluations. Based on simulations tailored to a situation similar to that of managing the widow rockfish (Sebastes entomelas) resource, it is shown that catches during recovery and thereafter are likely to be highly variable (up to ±30% from one year to the next). Such variability is far greater than has been presented to the decision makers to date. Reductions in interannual variability in catches through additional data collection are, however, unlikely. Rather, improved performance will probably arise from better methods for predicting future recruitment. Rebuilding analyses include quantities such as the year to which the desired probability of recovery applies. The estimates of such quantities are, however, very poorly determined.