Inter-decadal climate variability in the Southern Hemisphere: evidence from Tasmanian tree rings over the past three millennia

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): The characterization of inter-decadal climate variability in the Southern Hemisphere is severely constrained by the shortness of the instrumental climate records. To help relieve this constraint, we have developed and analyzed a reconstruction of warm-season (November-April) temperatures from Tasmanian tree rings that now extends back to 800 BC. A detailed analysis of this reconstruction in the time and frequency domains indicates that much of the inter-decadal variability is principally confined to four frequency bands with mean periods of 31, 57, 77, and 200 years. ... In so doing, we show how a future greenhouse warming signal over Tasmania could be masked by these natural oscillations unless they are taken into account.

Measures of turbidity in coastal waters, Coconut Island, Oahu, Hawaii, August 31 - September 2, 2005: workshop proceedings

A three day workshop on turbidity measurements was held at the Hawaii Institute of Marine Biology from August 3 1 to September 2, 2005. The workshop was attended by 30 participants from industry, coastal management agencies, and academic institutions. All groups recognized common issues regarding the definition of turbidity, limitations of consistent calibration, and the large variety of instrumentation that nominally measure "turbidity." The major recommendations, in order of importance for the coastal monitoring community are listed below: 1. The community of users in coastal ecosystems should tighten instrument design configurations to minimize inter-instrument variability, choosing a set of specifications that are best suited for coastal waters. The IS0 7027 design standard is not tight enough. Advice on these design criteria should be solicited through the ASTM as well as Federal and State regulatory agencies representing the majority of turbidity sensor end users. Parties interested in making turbidity measurements in coastal waters should develop design specifications for these water types rather than relying on design standards made for the analysis of drinking water. 2. The coastal observing groups should assemble a community database relating output of specific sensors to different environmental parameters, so that the entire community of users can benefit from shared information. This would include an unbiased, parallel study of different turbidity sensors, employing a variety of designs and configuration in the broadest range of coastal environments. 3. Turbidity should be used as a measure of relative change in water quality rather than an absolute measure of water quality. Thus, this is a recommendation for managers to develop their own local calibrations. See next recommendation. 4. If the end user specifically wants to use a turbidity sensor to measure a specific water quality parameter such as suspended particle concentration, then direct measurement of that water quality parameter is necessary to correlate with 'turbidity1 for a particular environment. These correlations, however, will be specific to the environment in which they are measured. This works because there are many environments in which water composition is relatively stable but varies in magnitude or concentration. (pdf contains 22 pages)

Estimating overall fish bycatch in U.S. commercial fisheries

Bycatch, or the unintended capture of fish, marine mammals, sea turtles, and seabirds by fishing gear, occurs to some degree in most fisheries. The recently released National Marine Fisheries Service’s (NMFS) U.S. National Bycatch Report provides information on bycatch in U.S. commercial fisheries by fishery and species. The report also provides national statistics in the form of national bycatch ratio and a national bycatch estimate. We describe the methods used to develop these statistics and compare them to similar studies. We conclude that the national bycatch ratio and national bycatch estimates developed by NMFS represent the best available information on bycatch in U.S. fisheries. However, given changes in bycatch management over time, as well as inter-annual variability in bycatch levels and a high percentage of fisheries for which data on bycatch are not currently available, we recommend that NMFS continue to support bycatch data collection and reporting efforts to improve the quality and quantity of bycatch data and estimates available to fisheries managers and scientists over time. This will enable NMFS to meet its requirements for bycatch reporting under the Magnuson-Stevens Act (MSA), as well as requirements for bycatch minimization under the MSA, Marine Mammal Protection Act, and Endangered Species Act.

A stochastic model of temporal variations in monthly temperature, precipitation, snowfall, and resulting snowpack

We report a Monte Carlo representation of the long-term inter-annual variability of monthly snowfall on a detailed (1 km) grid of points throughout the southwest. An extension of the local climate model of the southwestern United States (Stamm and Craig 1992) provides spatially based estimates of mean and variance of monthly temperature and precipitation. The mean is the expected value from a canonical regression using independent variables that represent controls on climate in this area, including orography. Variance is computed as the standard error of the prediction and provides site-specific measures of (1) natural sources of variation and (2) errors due to limitations of the data and poor distribution of climate stations. Simulation of monthly temperature and precipitation over a sequence of years is achieved by drawing from a bivariate normal distribution. The conditional expectation of precipitation. given temperature in each month, is the basis of a numerical integration of the normal probability distribution of log precipitation below a threshold temperature (3°C) to determine snowfall as a percent of total precipitation. Snowfall predictions are tested at stations for which long-term records are available. At Donner Memorial State Park (elevation 1811 meters) a 34-year simulation - matching the length of instrumental record - is within 15 percent of observed for mean annual snowfall. We also compute resulting snowpack using a variation of the model of Martinec et al. (1983). This allows additional tests by examining spatial patterns of predicted snowfall and snowpack and their hydrologic implications.

Hypoxic and low pH water in the nearshore marine environments of Monterey Bay, California: characterizing a decade of oxygen and pH, and drivers of variability.

A decade-long time series recorded in southern Monterey Bay, California demonstrates that the shallow, near-shore environment (17 m depth) is regularly inundated with pulses of cold, hypoxic and low pH water. During these episodes, oxygen can drop to biologically threatening levels, and pH levels were lower than expected. Weekly water chemistry monitoring revealed that the saturation state of aragonite (the more soluble form of calcium carbonate) was often below saturation and had a moderate positive relationship with pH, however, analytical and human error could be high. Pulses of hypoxia and low pH water with the greatest intensity arise at the onset of the spring upwelling season, and fluctuations are strongly semidurnal (tidal) and diurnal. Arrival of cold, hypoxic water on the inner shelf typically occurs 3 days after the arrival of a strong upwelling event and appears to be driven by upwelling modulated by internal tidal fluctuations. I found no relationship between the timing of low-oxygen events and the diel solar cycle nor with terrestrial nutrient input. These observations are consistent with advection of hypoxic water from the deep, offshore environment where water masses experience a general decline of temperature, oxygen and pH with depth, and inconsistent with biochemical forcing. Comparisons with concurrent temperature and oxygen time series taken ~20 km away at the head of the Monterey Canyon show similar patterns but even more intense hypoxic events due to stronger semidiurnal forcing there. Analysis of the durations of exposure to low oxygen levels establishes a framework for assessing the ecological relevance of these events. Increasing oceanic hypoxia and acidification of both surface and deep waters may increase the number, intensity, duration and spatial extent of future intrusions along the Pacific coast. Evaluation of the resiliency of nearshore ecosystems such as kelp forests, rocky reefs and sandy habitats, will require consideration of these events.

High-resolution natural recording systems: intercomparisons of the response to interannual climatic variability [abstract]

The goal of this work is to examine the properties of recording mechanisms which are common to continuously recording high-resolution natural systems in which climatic signals are imprinted and preserved as proxy records. These systems produce seasonal structures as an indirect response to climatic variability over the annual cycle. We compare the proxy records from four different high-resolution systems: the Quelccaya ice cap of the Peruvian Andes; composite tree ring growth from southern California and the southwestern United States; and the marine varve sedimentation systems in the Santa Barbara basin (off California, United States) and in the Gulf of California, Mexico. An important focus of this work is to indicate how the interannual climatic signal is recorded in a variety of different natural systems with vastly different recording mechanisms and widely separated in space. These high-resolution records are the products of natural processes which should be comparable, to some degree, to human-engineered systems developed to transmit and record physical quantities. We therefore present a simple analogy of a data recording system as a heuristic model to provide some unifying concepts with which we may better understand the formation of the records. This analogy assumes special significance when we consider that natural proxy records are the principal means to extend our knowledge of climatic variability into the past, beyond the limits of instrumentally recorded data.