Inter-decadal climate variability in the Southern Hemisphere: evidence from Tasmanian tree rings over the past three millennia

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): The characterization of inter-decadal climate variability in the Southern Hemisphere is severely constrained by the shortness of the instrumental climate records. To help relieve this constraint, we have developed and analyzed a reconstruction of warm-season (November-April) temperatures from Tasmanian tree rings that now extends back to 800 BC. A detailed analysis of this reconstruction in the time and frequency domains indicates that much of the inter-decadal variability is principally confined to four frequency bands with mean periods of 31, 57, 77, and 200 years. ... In so doing, we show how a future greenhouse warming signal over Tasmania could be masked by these natural oscillations unless they are taken into account.

Measures of turbidity in coastal waters, Coconut Island, Oahu, Hawaii, August 31 - September 2, 2005: workshop proceedings

A three day workshop on turbidity measurements was held at the Hawaii Institute of Marine Biology from August 3 1 to September 2, 2005. The workshop was attended by 30 participants from industry, coastal management agencies, and academic institutions. All groups recognized common issues regarding the definition of turbidity, limitations of consistent calibration, and the large variety of instrumentation that nominally measure "turbidity." The major recommendations, in order of importance for the coastal monitoring community are listed below: 1. The community of users in coastal ecosystems should tighten instrument design configurations to minimize inter-instrument variability, choosing a set of specifications that are best suited for coastal waters. The IS0 7027 design standard is not tight enough. Advice on these design criteria should be solicited through the ASTM as well as Federal and State regulatory agencies representing the majority of turbidity sensor end users. Parties interested in making turbidity measurements in coastal waters should develop design specifications for these water types rather than relying on design standards made for the analysis of drinking water. 2. The coastal observing groups should assemble a community database relating output of specific sensors to different environmental parameters, so that the entire community of users can benefit from shared information. This would include an unbiased, parallel study of different turbidity sensors, employing a variety of designs and configuration in the broadest range of coastal environments. 3. Turbidity should be used as a measure of relative change in water quality rather than an absolute measure of water quality. Thus, this is a recommendation for managers to develop their own local calibrations. See next recommendation. 4. If the end user specifically wants to use a turbidity sensor to measure a specific water quality parameter such as suspended particle concentration, then direct measurement of that water quality parameter is necessary to correlate with 'turbidity1 for a particular environment. These correlations, however, will be specific to the environment in which they are measured. This works because there are many environments in which water composition is relatively stable but varies in magnitude or concentration. (pdf contains 22 pages)

Estimating overall fish bycatch in U.S. commercial fisheries

Bycatch, or the unintended capture of fish, marine mammals, sea turtles, and seabirds by fishing gear, occurs to some degree in most fisheries. The recently released National Marine Fisheries Service’s (NMFS) U.S. National Bycatch Report provides information on bycatch in U.S. commercial fisheries by fishery and species. The report also provides national statistics in the form of national bycatch ratio and a national bycatch estimate. We describe the methods used to develop these statistics and compare them to similar studies. We conclude that the national bycatch ratio and national bycatch estimates developed by NMFS represent the best available information on bycatch in U.S. fisheries. However, given changes in bycatch management over time, as well as inter-annual variability in bycatch levels and a high percentage of fisheries for which data on bycatch are not currently available, we recommend that NMFS continue to support bycatch data collection and reporting efforts to improve the quality and quantity of bycatch data and estimates available to fisheries managers and scientists over time. This will enable NMFS to meet its requirements for bycatch reporting under the Magnuson-Stevens Act (MSA), as well as requirements for bycatch minimization under the MSA, Marine Mammal Protection Act, and Endangered Species Act.

A stochastic model of temporal variations in monthly temperature, precipitation, snowfall, and resulting snowpack

We report a Monte Carlo representation of the long-term inter-annual variability of monthly snowfall on a detailed (1 km) grid of points throughout the southwest. An extension of the local climate model of the southwestern United States (Stamm and Craig 1992) provides spatially based estimates of mean and variance of monthly temperature and precipitation. The mean is the expected value from a canonical regression using independent variables that represent controls on climate in this area, including orography. Variance is computed as the standard error of the prediction and provides site-specific measures of (1) natural sources of variation and (2) errors due to limitations of the data and poor distribution of climate stations. Simulation of monthly temperature and precipitation over a sequence of years is achieved by drawing from a bivariate normal distribution. The conditional expectation of precipitation. given temperature in each month, is the basis of a numerical integration of the normal probability distribution of log precipitation below a threshold temperature (3°C) to determine snowfall as a percent of total precipitation. Snowfall predictions are tested at stations for which long-term records are available. At Donner Memorial State Park (elevation 1811 meters) a 34-year simulation - matching the length of instrumental record - is within 15 percent of observed for mean annual snowfall. We also compute resulting snowpack using a variation of the model of Martinec et al. (1983). This allows additional tests by examining spatial patterns of predicted snowfall and snowpack and their hydrologic implications.

PICES Press, Vol. 11, No. 1, January 2003

Editorial and Contents The state of PICES science - 2002 Second annual Wooster Award to Yutaka Nagata Qingdao Open Science Meeting: A major landmark for GLOBEC GLOBEC OSM Session Highhlights PICES/GLOBEC Data Management Workshop PICES and GLOBEC modelling Some personal impressions of the GLOBEC OSM Photo highlights of PICES XI and GLOBEC OSM PICES Climate Change and Carrying Capacity (CCCC) Integration Workshop PICES/CLIVAR Workshop on Climate Variability in the Pacific and its impact on the marine ecosystem IGBP/SCOR Open Science Meeting on Ocean Biogeochemistry and Ecosystem Analysis Subarctic Ecosystem Response to Iron Enrichment Study (SERIES): eastern subarctic Pacific in July 2002 Introducing the GLOBEC International Project Office / GLOBEC Calendar 2003 Introducing the PICES Secretariat PICES Calendar

Initial Hydraulic modelling and Levee Stability Analysis of the Triple M Ranch Restoration Project

“Advanced Watershed Science and Policy (ESSP 660)” is a graduate class taught in the Master of Science in Coastal and Watershed Science & Policy program at California State University Monterey Bay (CSUMB). In 2007, the class was taught in four 4-week modules, each focusing on a local watershed issue. This report is one outcome of one of those 4-week modules taught in the fall 2007 session. (Document contains 32 pages)

Proceedings of the PICES/CoML/IPRC Workshop on Impact of Climate Variability on Observation and Prediction of Ecosystem and Biodiversity Changes in the North Pacific

Table of Contents [pdf, 0.09 Mb] Section I - Presentations and Discussions at Plenary Sessions Introduction and Overview of Workshop Objectives [pdf, 0.07 Mb] Plenary Session Presentations [pdf, 2.23 Mb] Reports of the Breakout Group Discussions [pdf, 0.43 Mb] Closing Plenary Discussion and Recommendations [pdf, 0.11 Mb] Section II - Extended Abstracts of Individual Presentations at Breakout Group Sessions Breakout Group 1: Physical/Chemical Oceanography and Climate [pdf, 6.14 Mb] Breakout Group 2: Phytoplankton, Zooplankton, Micronekton and Benthos [pdf, 28.14 Mb] Breakout Group 3: Fish, Squid, Crabs and Shrimps [pdf, 4.30 Mb] Breakout Group 4: Highly Migratory Fishes, Seabirds and Marine Mammals [pdf, 6.27 Mb] Appendix 1. Workshop agenda [pdf, 0.15 Mb] Appendix 2. List of participants [pdf, 0.13 Mb] (Document pdf contains 216 pages)

PICES-GLOBEC International Program on Climate Change and Carrying Capacity: Report of the 1999 MONITOR and REX Workshops, and the 2000 MODEL Workshop on Lower Trophic Level Modelling

Table of Contents [pdf, 0.11 Mb] Executive Summary [pdf, 0.07 Mb] MODEL Task Team Workshop Report Final Report of the International Workshop to Develop a Prototype Lower Trophic Level Ecosystem Model for Comparison of Different Marine Ecosystems in the North Pacific [pdf, 11.64 Mb] Report of the 1999 MONITOR Task Team Workshop [pdf, 0.32 Mb] Report of the 1999 REX Task Team Workshop Herring and Euphausiid population dynamics Douglas E. Hay and Bruce McCarter Spatial, temporal and life-stage variation in herring diets in British Columbia [pdf, 0.10 Mb] Augustus J. Paul and J. M. Paul Over winter changes in herring from Prince William Sound, Alaska [pdf, 0.08 Mb] N. G. Chupisheva Qualitative texture characteristic of herring (Clupea pallasi pallasi) pre-larvae developed from the natural and artificial spawning-grounds in Severnaya Bay (Peter the Great Bay) [pdf, 0.07 Mb] Gordon A. McFarlane, Richard J. Beamish and Jake SchweigertPacific herring: Common factors have opposite impacts in adjacent ecosystems [pdf, 0.15 Mb] Tokimasa Kobayashi, Keizou Yabuki, Masayoshi Sasaki and Jun-Ichi Kodama Long-term fluctuation of the catch of Pacific herring in Northern Japan [pdf, 0.39 Mb] Jacqueline M. O’Connell Holocene fish remains from Saanich Inlet, British Columbia, Canada [pdf, 0.40 Mb] Elsa R. Ivshina and Irina Y. Bragina On relationship between crustacean zooplankton (Euphausiidae and Copepods) and Sakhalin-Hokkaido herring (Tatar Strait, Sea of Japan) [pdf, 0.14 Mb] Stein Kaartvbeedt Fish predation on krill and krill antipredator behaviour [pdf, 0.08 Mb] Nikolai I. Naumenko Euphausiids and western Bering Sea herring feeding [pdf, 0.07 Mb] David M. Checkley, Jr. Interactions Between Fish and Euphausiids and Potential Relations to Climate and Recruitment [pdf, 0.08 Mb] Vladimir I. Radchenko and Elena P. Dulepova Shall we expect the Korf-Karaginsky herring migrations into the offshore western Bering Sea? [pdf, 0.75 Mb] Young Shil Kang Euphausiids in the Korean waters and its relationship with major fish resources [pdf, 0.29 Mb] William T. Peterson, Leah Feinberg and Julie Keister Ecological Zonation of euphausiids off central Oregon [pdf, 0.11 Mb] Scott M. Rumsey Environmentally forced variability in larval development and stage-structure: Implications for the recruitment of Euphausia pacifica (Hansen) in the Southern California Bight [pdf, 3.26 Mb] Scott M. Rumsey Inverse modelling of developmental parameters in Euphausia pacifica: The relative importance of spawning history and environmental forcing to larval stage-frequency distributions [pdf, 98.79 Mb] Michio J. Kishi, Hitoshi Motono & Kohji Asahi An ecosystem model with zooplankton vertical migration focused on Oyashio region [pdf, 33.32 Mb] PICES-GLOBEC Implementation Panel on Climate Change and Carrying Capacity Program Executive Committee and Task Team List [pdf, 0.05 Mb] (Document pdf contains 142 pages)

Modelling of the Subarctic North Pacific Circulation (Report of Working Group 7)

This review focuses on modelling ocean circulation and its variability in the subarctic North Pacific; it addresses issues specific to that region, and not the subject of ocean modelling in general. The performance of existing models is assessed in relation to observations in the upper ocean, intermediate waters and deep/abyssal waters. (PDF contains 87 pages)

Testable models of aquatic systems: A NERC special topic for integrating experiments and modelling

A major part of the support for fundamental research on aquatic ecosystems continues to be provided by the Natural Environment Research Council (NERC). Funds are released for ”thematic” studies in a selected special topic or programme. ”Testable Models of Aquatic Ecosystems” was a Special Topic of the NERC, initiated in 1995, the aim of which was to promote ecological modelling by making new links between experimental aquatic biologists and state-of-the-art modellers. The Topic covered both marine and freshwater systems. This paper summarises projects on aspects of the responses of individual organisms to the effects of environmental variability, on the assembly, permanence and resilience of communities, and on aspects of spatial models. The authors conclude that the NERC Special Topic has been highly successful in promoting the development and application of models, most particularly through the interplay between experimental ecologists and formal modellers.