The Empirical Modeling of an Ecosystem

The authors have endeavored to create a verified a-posteriori model of a planktonic ecosystem. Verification of an empirically derived set of first-order, quadratic differential equations proved elusive due to the sensitivity of the model system to changes in initial conditions. Efforts to verify a similarly derived set of linear differential equations were more encouraging, yielding reasonable behavior for half of the ten ecosystem compartments modeled. The well-behaved species models gave indications as to the rate-controlling processes in the ecosystem.

Skill of monthly forecasts during the Northern Hemisphere summer

We have performed GCM experiments using the National Meteorological Center's Medium Range Forecasting (MRF) model to study the skill of monthly forecasts during the Northern Hemisphere summer and to test the impact of sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) on such forecasts. The daily skill varies a great deal. The skillful daily forecasts last from 5 to 8 days for the Southern Hemisphere and from 6 to 8 days for the Northern Hemisphere. SSTAs have positive impact on the forecasts in the tropics and surface variables, but the impact of tropical SSTAs on the extra-tropical circulation is, in general, positive but small. Overall, the initial conditions play a more important role than SSTAs in determining the forecast skill.

A simple approach for the estimation of food consumption from growth rates at different environmental conditions and its application to juvenile cod (Gadus morhua L.) of a fjordic sea loch on the west coast of Scotland

Abstract Growth and condition of fish are functions of available food and environmental conditions. This led to the idea of using fish as a “consumption sensor” for the measurement of food intake over a defined period of time. A bio-physical model for the estimation of food consumption was developed based on the von Bertalanffy model. Whereas some of the input variables of the model, the initial and final lengths and masses of a fish and the temperature within the time period considered can easily be measured, internal characteristics of the species have to be determined indirectly. Three internal parameters are used in the model: the maintenance consumption at 0°C, the temperature dependence of this consumption and the food efficiency, the percentage of the ingested food utilized. Estimates of the parameters for a given species can be determined by feeding experiments. Here, data from published feeding experiments on juvenile cod, Gadus morhua L., were used to validate the model. The average of the relative error for the food intake predicted by the model for individual fish was about 24 %, indicating that fish used the food with different efficiencies. However, grouping the fish according to size classes and temperature lowered the relative error of the predicted food intake for the group to typically 5 %. For a group containing all fish of the feeding experiment the relative prediction error was about 2 %. Zusammenfassung Wachstum und Kondition der Fische sind von der verfügbaren Nahrung und von Umweltbedingungen abhängig. Dies führte zur Idee, Fisch als „Konsum-Sensor“ für die Messung der Nahrungsaufnahme über einen definierten Zeitraum zu verwenden. Auf Grundlage des von Bertalanffy-Modells wurde ein bio-physikalisches Modell zur Schätzung der Futteraufnahme entwickelt. Während einige der Eingangsgrößen des Modells leicht gemessen werden können (Anfangs- und Endlänge und -körpermasse der Fische und die Temperatur innerhalb des betrachteten Zeitraum), können interne Parameter der betrachteten Art nur indirekt bestimmt werden. Drei interne Parameter werden in dem Modell verwendet: Die Erhaltungskonsumtion bei 0° C, die Temperaturabhängigkeit dieser Rate und der Wirkungsgrad der Nahrung (der Anteil der Nahrung ,der aufgenommen und verwendet und nicht ungenutzt wieder ausgeschieden wird). Die Modellparameter für eine bestimmte Art können durch Fütterungsversuche bestimmt werden. Um das Modell zu validieren wurden Daten aus veröffentlichten Fütterungsversuchen mit juvenilen Kabeljau (Gadus morhua L.) verwendet. Modell und Wirklichkeit weichen in der Regel voneinander ab. Der durchschnittliche relative Fehler der durch das Modell vorhergesagten Nahrungsaufnahme betrug für Einzelfische etwa 24%, was darauf hinweist, dass einzelne Fisch die Nahrung mit unterschiedlichen Wirkungsgraden verwerten. Allerdings senkte die Gruppierung der Fische nach Größenklassen und Temperatur den relativen Vorhersagefehler für die Nahrungsaufnahme der Gruppe auf etwa 5%. Für alle Fische im Fütterungsversuch ist der relative Vorhersagefehler etwa 2%.

Shelf life of dried products from small indigenous fish species under various packing and storage conditions

The overall quality of five SIS products was found in good condition up to 2 months storage on the basis of organoleptic, biochemical and bacteriological characteristics and all the products was excellent in sealed packed condition up to 45 days of storage. However, quality of the products stored in open air atmospheric temperature was found excellent for first 15 days. In an average the initial moisture content was in the range of 13.5 to 15.0% with highest moisture content in puti and lowest in chapila. At the end of the 60 days the moisture content reached to the range of 18.5 to 19.0% which was more or less near the recommended limit of 16% for dried fishery products. The moisture content beyond the recommended limit as the storage period increased further and at the end of 90 days the moisture content increased to the range of 22.9 to 24% when organoleptically the product quality became very poor. The changes in the value of total volatile base nitrogen (TVB-N), peroxide value (PO), moisture and aerobic plate count (APC) of solar tunnel dried products in sealed polythene packages were investigated during 60 days of storage. There was little or no differences in TVB-N, PO and bacterial load of each species packed under various polythene density. The initial TVB-N values were in the range of 10.30 to 12.40 mg/100g of the samples. TVB-N value increased slowly up to the end of the storage period and was to in the range of 46.20 to 57.00 mg/1 00 g of sample. Initially the peroxide values (P.O.) were in the range of 6.54 to 8.40 m.eq./kg oil of the samples. During 60 days of storage, P.O. values increased slowly and at the end of the storage period these values reached to the range of 22.00 to 25.30meq./kg of sample. The initial APC was in the range 5.3xl04-7.3x104 CFU/g. The bacterial load increased slowly and at the end of the 60 days storage period reached to the range 6.6x106 - 8.6x107 CFT/g.

Shelf-life of rotary and solar tunnel dried SIS products under different packaging and storage conditions

A study was conducted on the shelf-life of rotary and solar tunnel dried SIS products under different packaging and storage conditions. Organoleptically dried products were found in good condition after a storage period of 60 days in ambient and chilled conditions. The moisture content, TVB-N value and bacterial load slightly increased during 60 days of storage in ambient and chilled conditions. The changes in moisture content and bacterial load were faster in ambient temperature than in chilled storage condition whereas changes in TVB-N value was higher in chilled condition than in ambient temperature. The initial moisture content was in the range of 13.71% to 22.84%. After 60 days of storage in ambient and chilled condition the moisture content of dried products was in the range of 15.09% to 25.11% and 14.49% to 25.01%, respectively. The initial TVB-N value was in the range of 10.64 to 17.52 mg/100g and after 60 days of storage in ambient and chilled condition, TVB-N value was in the range of 29.00 to 34.82 mg/100g and 31.41 to 39.11 mg/100g, respectively. The initial bacterial load was in the range of 1.91x10 super(8) to 2.84x10 super(8) and after 60 days of storage in ambient and chilled condition, the bacterial load was in the range of 6.2x10 super(8) to 1.8x10 super(9) and 5.75x10 super(7) to 5.05x10 super(8) CFU/g, respectively. The results of the present study indicated that it is necessary to store high quality dried products in sealed packed in chilled condition to ensure good quality up to a certain period of time.