Extreme events and ecological forecasting

Almost all extreme events lasting less than several weeks that significantly impact ecosystems are weather related. This review examines the response of estuarine systems to intense short-term perturbations caused by major weather events such as hurricanes. Current knowledge concerning these effects is limited to relatively few studies where hurricanes and storms impacted estuaries with established environmental monitoring programs. Freshwater inputs associated with these storms were found to initially result in increased primary productivity. When hydrographic conditions are favorable, bacterial consumption of organic matter produced by the phytoplankton blooms and deposited during the initial runoff event can contribute to significant oxygen deficits during subsequent warmer periods. Salinity stress and habitat destruction associated with freshwater inputs, as well as anoxia, adversely affect benthic populations and fish. In contrast, mobile invertebrate species such as shrimp, which have a short life cycle and the ability to migrate during the runoff event, initially benefit from the increased primary productivity and decreased abundance of fish predators. Events studied so far indicate that estuaries rebound in one to three years following major short-term perturbations. However, repeated storm events without sufficient recovery time may cause a fundamental shift in ecosystem structure (Scavia et al. 2002). This is a scenario consistent with the predicted increase in hurricanes for the east coast of the United States. More work on the response of individual species to these stresses is needed so management of commercial resources can be adjusted to allow sufficient recovery time for affected populations.

Variation in size of yellowfin tuna (Thunnus albacares) within individual purse-seine sets

ENGLISH:Length-frequency samples of yellowfin tuna from 276 individual purse-seine sets were examined. Evidence of schooling by size is presented. Yellowfin schooled with skipjack are smaller and more homogeneous in length than are yellowfin from pure schools. Yellowfin in schools associated with porpoise appear to be more variable in size than yellowfin from other types of schools. No relationship was found between the tonnage of yellowfin in a school and the mean length of the yellowfin. Despite the tendency to school by size, the size variation within individual schools was judged to be enough to complicate greatly any program of regulation aimed at maximizing the yield-per-recruit through increasing the minimum size of yellowfin at first capture. SPANISH: Fueron examinadas las muestras frecuencia-longitud de atún aleta amarilla, de 276 lances individuales de redes de cerco. Se presenta la evidencia de agrupación por tamaños. Los atunes aleta amarilla agrupados con barrilete, son más pequeños y más homogéneos en longitud, que los atunes aleta amarilla de cardúmenes puros. El atún aleta amarilla en cardúmenes asociados con delfines parece ser más variable en tamaño, que el atún aleta amarilla proveniente de otros tipos de cardúmenes. No se encontró relac¡'ón entre el tonelaje del atún aleta amarilla en un cardumen y la longitud media de esta especie. A pesar de la tendencia a agruparse por tamaño, se juzgó, que la variación de tamaño en cardúmenes individuales, sería suficiente para complicar grandemente cualquier programa de reglamentación, dirigido a obtener el máximo del rendimiento por recluta a través del incremento del tamaño mínimo del atún aleta amarilla en la primera captura.

Miscellaneous translations on oyster biology (contents page only - individual articles held as separate documents)

This is a translation of selected articles from the Japanese language publication Hiroshimaken Suisan Shikenjo Hokoku (Report of Hirshima Prefectural Fisheries Experimental Station), Hiroshima City, Japan, vol.22, no. 1, 1960, pages 1-76. Articles translated are: Haematological study of bacteria affected oysters, The distribution of oyster larvae and spatfalls in the Hiroshima City perimeter, On the investigation of the timing of spatfalls, On the prediction of oyster seeding at inner Hiroshima Bay, Oyster growth and its environment at the oyster farm in Hiroshima Bay

Underwater Passive Acoustic Monitoring for Remote Regions, Hawaii Institute of Marine Biology, Coconut Island, Hawaii, February 7-9, 2007: workshop proceedings

The Alliance for Coastal Technologies (ACT) convened a workshop, sponsored by the Hawaii-Pacific and Alaska Regional Partners, entitled Underwater Passive Acoustic Monitoring for Remote Regions at the Hawaii Institute of Marine Biology from February 7-9, 2007. The workshop was designed to summarize existing passive acoustic technologies and their uses, as well as to make strategic recommendations for future development and collaborative programs that use passive acoustic tools for scientific investigation and resource management. The workshop was attended by 29 people representing three sectors: research scientists, resource managers, and technology developers. The majority of passive acoustic tools are being developed by individual scientists for specific applications and few tools are available commercially. Most scientists are developing hydrophone-based systems to listen for species-specific information on fish or cetaceans; a few scientists are listening for biological indicators of ecosystem health. Resource managers are interested in passive acoustics primarily for vessel detection in remote protected areas and secondarily to obtain biological and ecological information. The military has been monitoring with hydrophones for decades;however, data and signal processing software has not been readily available to the scientific community, and future collaboration is greatly needed. The challenges that impede future development of passive acoustics are surmountable with greater collaboration. Hardware exists and is accessible; the limits are in the software and in the interpretation of sounds and their correlation with ecological events. Collaboration with the military and the private companies it contracts will assist scientists and managers with obtaining and developing software and data analysis tools. Collaborative proposals among scientists to receive larger pools of money for exploratory acoustic science will further develop the ability to correlate noise with ecological activities. The existing technologies and data analysis are adequate to meet resource managers' needs for vessel detection. However, collaboration is needed among resource managers to prepare large-scale programs that include centralized processing in an effort to address the lack of local capacity within management agencies to analyze and interpret the data. Workshop participants suggested that ACT might facilitate such collaborations through its website and by providing recommendations to key agencies and programs, such as DOD, NOAA, and I00s. There is a need to standardize data formats and archive acoustic environmental data at the national and international levels. Specifically, there is a need for local training and primers for public education, as well as by pilot demonstration projects, perhaps in conjunction with National Marine Sanctuaries. Passive acoustic technologies should be implemented immediately to address vessel monitoring needs. Ecological and health monitoring applications should be developed as vessel monitoring programs provide additional data and opportunities for more exploratory research. Passive acoustic monitoring should also be correlated with water quality monitoring to ease integration into long-term monitoring programs, such as the ocean observing systems. [PDF contains 52 pages]

Predicting the effects of climate change on sea turtle nesting habitat in Florida

Rising global temperatures threaten the survival of many plant and animal species. Having already risen at an unprecedented rate in the past century, temperatures are predicted to rise between 0.3 and 7.5C in North America over the next 100 years (Hawkes et al. 2007). Studies have documented the effects of climate warming on phenology (timing of seasonal activities), with observations of early arrival at breeding grounds, earlier ends to the reproductive season, and delayed autumnal migrations (Pike et al. 2006). In addition, for species not suited to the physiological demands of cold winter temperatures, increasing temperatures could shift tolerable habitats to higher latitudes (Hawkes et al. 2007). More directly, climate warming will impact thermally sensitive species like sea turtles, who exhibit temperature-dependent sexual determination. Temperatures in the middle third of the incubation period determine the sex of sea turtle offspring, with higher temperatures resulting in a greater abundance of female offspring. Consequently, increasing temperatures from climate warming would drastically change the offspring sex ratio (Hawkes et al. 2007). Of the seven extant species of sea turtles, three (leatherback, Kemp’s ridley, and hawksbill) are critically endangered, two (olive ridley and green) are endangered, and one (loggerhead) is threatened. Considering the predicted scenarios of climate warming and the already tenuous status of sea turtle populations, it is essential that efforts are made to understand how increasing temperatures may affect sea turtle populations and how these species might adapt in the face of such changes. In this analysis, I seek to identify the impact of changing climate conditions over the next 50 years on the availability of sea turtle nesting habitat in Florida given predicted changes in temperature and precipitation. I predict that future conditions in Florida will be less suitable for sea turtle nesting during the historic nesting season. This may imply that sea turtles will nest at a different time of year, in more northern latitudes, to a lesser extent, or possibly not at all. It seems likely that changes in temperature and precipitation patterns will alter the distribution of sea turtle nesting locations worldwide, provided that beaches where the conditions are suitable for nesting still exist. Hijmans and Graham (2006) evaluate a range of climate envelope models in terms of their ability to predict species distributions under climate change scenarios. Their results suggested that the choice of species distribution model is dependent on the specifics of each individual study. Fuller et al. (2008) used a maximum entropy approach to model the potential distribution of 11 species in the Arctic Coastal Plain of Alaska under a series of projected climate scenarios. Recently, Pike (in press) developed Maxent models to investigate the impacts of climate change on green sea turtle nest distribution and timing. In each of these studies, a set of environmental predictor variables (including climate variables), for which ‘current’ conditions are available and ‘future’ conditions have been projected, is used in conjunction with species occurrence data to map potential species distribution under the projected conditions. In this study, I will take a similar approach in mapping the potential sea turtle nesting habitat in Florida by developing a Maxent model based on environmental and climate data and projecting the model for future climate data. (PDF contains 5 pages)

Individual weight, development time and yield of different stages of Tropodiaptomus incognitus (Crustacea: Copepoda). [Translation from: Cahiers ORSTOM, Serie Hydrobiologie 4(1) 63-70, 1970. ]

Observations of individual weight, duration of development and production of different stages of Tropodiaptomus incognitus are presented. The study is based on data gathered from Lake Chad in 1968.

Individual growth and seasonal cycle of Daphnia middendorffiana in an Alpine lake [Translation from: Memorie dell'Istituto Italiano di Idrobiologia Dott.Marco de Marchi 26 41-83, 1970]

The problem of the peculiar reproductive biology of the cladoceran Daphnia middendorffiana is investigated from a cytological viewpoint, and by direct observation the meiotic phenomena of the eggs both subitaneous and resting is studied. and during maturation, the true mechanism of the succession of reproductive phases of different ecological significance. Samples were collected in the Italian Alpine Lake of Campo 4°.

The effects of stress on benthic algal communities

The effects of stress on both microalgal and macroalgal communities are considered. On one hand the contrasting approaches of studies of these two communities reflect intrinsic differences in plant size, longevity and ease of handling. On the other hand they reveal that biological monitoring of the potentially deleterious effects of man's activities has focused largely on freshwater environments in which macroalgae only occasionally dominate. Large conspicuous plants can be readily investigated as individuals, whereas it is virtually impossible to trace effects of stress on an individual cell of a vegetatively-reproducing microalga; a population approach is almost inevitably necessary. However, rapid turnover rates, a spectrum of ecological characteristics distributed between many taxa, and the potential for statistical analysis, have facilitated the use of microalgae in environmental impact studies. Failure to extend such investigations into marine systems rests as much on man's ability to ignore environmental deterioration until it affects his quality of life as on the visual dominance of seaweeds around our coasts. However, large gaps remain in our knowledge of both large and small algae; some reported community changes over time are suspect, and the causes of even blatant changes are not always apparent.

From the individual to the community and beyond: water quality, stress indicators and key species in coastal waters

This review examines water quality and stress indicators at levels of organisation from the individual to the community and beyond by means of three case studies concentrating on rocky shores within the north-east Atlantic. Responses of dogwhelks (Nucella) to tributyltin pollution from antifouling paints is examined as the main case study. There are effects at the individual level (development of male sexual characteristics in the female leading to effective sterility) and population level (reduction in juveniles, few females and eventual population disappearance of dogwhelks in badly contaminated areas) but information on community level effects of dogwhelk demise is sparse. Such effects were simulated by dogwhelk removal experiments on well studied, moderately exposed ledges on shores on the Isle of Man. The removal of dogwhelks reduced the size and longevity of newly established Fucus clumps that had escaped grazing. Removal of dogwhelks also increased the likelihood of algal escapes. In a factorial experiment dogwhelks were shown to be less important than limpets \{Patella) in structuring communities but still had a significant modifying effect by increasing the probability of algal escapes. Community level responses to stress on rocky shores are then explored by reference to catastrophic impacts such as oil spills, using the Torrey Canyon as a case study. Recovery of the system in response to this major perturbation took between 10-15 years through a series of damped oscillations. The final case study is that of indicators of ecosystem level change in response to climate fluctuations, using ratios of northern \{Semibalanus balanoides) and southern (Chthamalus spp.) barnacles. Indices derived from counts on the shore show good correlations with inshore sea-water temperatures after a 2-year lag phase. The use of barnacles to measure offshore changes is reviewed. The discussion considers the use of bioindicators at various levels of organisation.

Fish pass design - criteria for the design and approval of fish passes and other structures to facilitate the passage of migratory fish in rivers

Many of British rivers hold stocks of salmon (Salmo salar L.) and sea trout (Salmo trutta L.) and during most of the year some of the adult fish migrate upstream to the head waters where, with the advent of winter, they will eventually spawn. For a variety of reasons, including the generation of power for milling, improving navigation and measuring water flow, man has put obstacles in the way of migratory fish which have added to those already provided by nature in the shape of rapids and waterfalls. While both salmon and sea trout, particularly the former, are capable of spectacular leaps the movement of fish over man-made and natural obstacles can be helped, or even made possible, by the judicious use of fish passes. These are designed to give the fish an easier route over or round an obstacle by allowing it to overcome the water head difference in a series of stages ('pool and traverse' fish pass) or by reducing the water velocity in a sloping channel (Denil fish pass). Salmon and sea trout make their spawning runs at different flow conditions, salmon preferring much higher water flows than sea trout. Hence the design of fish passes requires an understanding of the swimming ability of fish (speed and endurance) and the effect of water temperature on this ability. Also the unique features of each site must be appreciated to enable the pass to be positioned so that its entrance is readily located. As well as salmon and sea trout, rivers often have stocks of coarse fish and eels. Coarse fish migrations are generally local in character and although some obstructions such as weirs may allow downstream passages only, they do not cause a significant problem. Eels, like salmon and sea trout, travel both up and down river during the course of their life histories. However, the climbing power of elvers is legendary and it is not normally necessary to offer them help, while adult silver eels migrate at times of high water flow when downstream movement is comparatively easy: for these reasons neither coarse fish nor eels are considered further. The provision of fish passes is, in many instances, mandatory under the Salmon and Freshwater Fisheries Act 1975. This report is intended for those involved in the planning, siting, construction and operation of fish passes and is written to clarify the hydraulic problems for the biologist and the biological problems for the engineer. It is also intended to explain the criteria by which the design of an individual pass is assessed for Ministerial Approval.

Comparison of echogram measurements against data expectations and assumptions for distinguishing seafloor substrates

Defining types of seafloor substrate and relating them to the distribution of fish and invertebrates is an important but difficult goal. An examination of the processing steps of a commercial acoustics analyzing software program, as well as the data values produced by the proprietary first echo measurements, revealed potential benef its and drawbacks for distinguishing acoustically distinct seafloor substrates. The positive aspects were convenient processing steps such as gain adjustment, accurate bottom picking, ease of bad data exclusion, and the ability to average across successive pings in order to increase the signal-to-noise ratio. A noteworthy drawback with the processing was the potential for accidental inclusion of a second echo as if it were part of the first echo. Detailed examination of the echogram measurements quantified the amount of collinearity, revealed the lack of standardization (subtraction of mean, division by standard deviation) before principal components analysis (PCA), and showed correlations of individual echogram measurements with depth and seafloor slope. Despite the facility of the software, these previously unknown processing pitfalls and echogram measurement characteristics may have created data artifacts that generated user-derived substrate classifications, rather than actual seafloor substrate types.

Using the empirical Bayes method to estimate and evaluate bycatch rates of seabirds from individual fishing vessels

Minimizing bycatch of seabirds is a major goal of the U.S. National Marine Fisheries Service. In Alaska waters, the bycatch (i.e., inadvertent catches) of seabirds has been an incidental result of demersal groundfish longline fishery operations. Notably, the endangered short-tailed albatross (Phoebastria albatrus) has been taken in this groundfish fishery. Bycatch rates of seabirds from individual vessels may be of particular interest because vessels with high bycatch rates may not be functioning effectively with seabird avoidance gears, and there may be a need for suggestions on how to use these avoidance gears more effectively. Therefore, bycatch estimates are usually made on an individual vessel basis and then summed to obtain the total estimate for the entire fleet.

The role of mate guarding, Male Size and Male Investment on Individual Reproductive Success in the Blue Crab, Callinectes Sapidus.

Male blue crabs, Callinectes Sapidus, guard their mates before and after mating, suggesting that the conditions regulating both types of mate guarding dictate individual reproductive success. I tested the hypothesis that large male blue crabs have advantages in sexual competition using experimental manipulations, a simulation model, and field data on crabs from mid-Chesapeake Bay between 1991-1994.

Heterogeneous individual growth of Macrobrachium rosenbergii male morphotypes

In a single cohort of small freshwater prawn, Macrobrachium rosenbergii, the size range of females in the population is rather small. However, among the males, three major morphotypes are found and each has a distinct size category. The differential growth pattern in males, termed "heterogeneous individual growth" (HIG), is a major bottleneck confronting the profitability of farming this species. An attempt is made to understand the cause and impact of HIG on the culture system and methods by which HIG could be minimized in growout in order to maximize the market yield structure of the harvested population.

Maximum likelihood estimation of mortality and growth with individual variability from multiple length-frequency data

We consider estimation of mortality rates and growth parameters from length-frequency data of a fish stock and derive the underlying length distribution of the population and the catch when there is individual variability in the von Bertalanffy growth parameter L∞. The model is flexible enough to accommodate 1) any recruitment pattern as a function of both time and length, 2) length-specific selectivity, and 3) varying fishing effort over time. The maximum likelihood method gives consistent estimates, provided the underlying distribution for individual variation in growth is correctly specified. Simulation results indicate that our method is reasonably robust to violations in the assumptions. The method is applied to tiger prawn data (Penaeus semisulcatus) to obtain estimates of natural and fishing mortality.