Forecasting Climate Impacts on Future Production of Commercially Exploited Fish and Shellfish

Foreword [pdf, < 0.1 MB] Acknowledgements PHASE 1 [pdf, 0.2 MB] Summary of the PICES/NPRB Workshop on Forecasting Climate Impacts on Future Production of Commercially Exploited Fish and Shellfish (July 19–20, 2007, Seattle, U.S.A.) Background Links to Other Programs Workshop Format Session I. Status of climate change scenarios in the PICES region Session II. What are the expected impacts of climate change on regional oceanography and what are some scenarios for these drivers for the next 10 years? Session III. Recruitment forecasting Session IV. What models are out there? How is climate linked to the model? Session V. Assumptions regarding future fishing scenarios and enhancement activities Session VI Where do we go from here? References Appendix 1.1 List of Participants PHASE 2 [pdf, 0.7 MB] Summary of the PICES/NPRB Workshop on Forecasting Climate Impacts on Future Production of Commercially Exploited Fish and Shellfish (October 30, 2007, Victoria, Canada) Background Workshop Agenda Forecast Feasibility Format of Information Modeling Approaches Coupled bio-physical models Stock assessment projection models Comparative approaches Similarities in Data Requests Opportunities for Coordination with Other PICES Groups and International Efforts BACKGROUND REPORTS PREPARED FOR THE PHASE 2 WORKSHOP Northern California Current (U.S.) groundfish production by Melissa Haltuch Changes in sablefish (Anoplopoma fimbria) recruitment in relation to oceanographic conditions by Michael J. Schirripa Northern California Current (British Columbia) Pacific cod (Gadus macrocephalus) production by Caihong Fu and Richard Beamish Northern California Current (British Columbia) sablefish (Anoplopoma fimbria) production by Richard Beamish Northern California Current (British Columbia) pink (Oncorhynchus gorbuscha) and chum (O. keta) salmon production by Richard Beamish Northern California Current (British Columbia) ocean shrimp (Pandalus jordani) production by Caihong Fu Alaska salmon production by Anne Hollowed U.S. walleye pollock (Theragra chalcogramma) production in the eastern Bering Sea and Gulf of Alaska by Kevin Bailey and Anne Hollowed U.S. groundfish production in the eastern Bering Sea by Tom Wilderbuer U.S. crab production in the eastern Bering Sea by Gordon H. Kruse Forecasting Japanese commercially exploited species by Shin-ichi Ito, Kazuaki Tadokoro and Yasuhiro Yamanka Russian fish production in the Japan/East Sea by Yury Zuenko, Vladimir Nuzhdin and Natalia Dolganova Chum salmon (Oncorhynchus keta) production in Korea by Sukyung Kang, Suam Kim and Hyunju Seo Jack mackerel (Trachurus japonicus) production in Korea by Jae Bong Lee and Chang-Ik Zhang Chub mackerel (Scomber japonicus) production in Korea by Jae Bong Lee, Sukyung Kang, Suam Kim, Chang-Ik Zhang and Jin Yeong Kim References Appendix 2.1 List of Participants PHASE 3 [pdf, < 0.1 MB] Summary of the PICES Workshop on Linking Global Climate Model Output to (a) Trends in Commercial Species Productivity and (b) Changes in Broader Biological Communities in the World’s Oceans (May 18, 2008, Gijón, Spain) Appendix 3.1 List of Participants Appendix 3.2 Workshop Agenda (Document contains 101 pages)

Extreme events and ecological forecasting

Almost all extreme events lasting less than several weeks that significantly impact ecosystems are weather related. This review examines the response of estuarine systems to intense short-term perturbations caused by major weather events such as hurricanes. Current knowledge concerning these effects is limited to relatively few studies where hurricanes and storms impacted estuaries with established environmental monitoring programs. Freshwater inputs associated with these storms were found to initially result in increased primary productivity. When hydrographic conditions are favorable, bacterial consumption of organic matter produced by the phytoplankton blooms and deposited during the initial runoff event can contribute to significant oxygen deficits during subsequent warmer periods. Salinity stress and habitat destruction associated with freshwater inputs, as well as anoxia, adversely affect benthic populations and fish. In contrast, mobile invertebrate species such as shrimp, which have a short life cycle and the ability to migrate during the runoff event, initially benefit from the increased primary productivity and decreased abundance of fish predators. Events studied so far indicate that estuaries rebound in one to three years following major short-term perturbations. However, repeated storm events without sufficient recovery time may cause a fundamental shift in ecosystem structure (Scavia et al. 2002). This is a scenario consistent with the predicted increase in hurricanes for the east coast of the United States. More work on the response of individual species to these stresses is needed so management of commercial resources can be adjusted to allow sufficient recovery time for affected populations.

Ecological forecasting: new tools for coastal and marine ecosystem management

Policy makers, natural resource managers, regulators, and the public often call on scientists to estimate the potential ecological changes caused by both natural and human-induced stresses, and to determine how those changes will impact people and the environment. To develop accurate forecasts of ecological changes we need to: 1) increase understanding of ecosystem composition, structure, and functioning, 2) expand ecosystem monitoring and apply advanced scientific information to make these complex data widely available, and 3) develop and improve forecast and interpretative tools that use a scientific basis to assess the results of management and science policy actions. (PDF contains 120 pages)

Identification of non fishing income opportunities around Kainji Lake

The findings are presented of a study carried out in the Kainji Lake region of Nigeria in order to identify alternative income opportunities for the fisherfolk, so as to increase their acceptance of fishery management measures and also to reduce the harmful short-term economic effects that such management options can have. A description is given of the main non-fishing income earning activities in the Kainji Lake area and an assessment is made of the economic viability and expected acceptance of the identified income earning opportunities. (PDF contains 84 pages)

Alternative income in Kainji Lake area: introduction of improved cocks to fisherfolk

Details are given of a study conducted in the framework of the Kainji Lake Fisheries Promotion Project to boost income from alternative sources. The project identified 'improved poultry keeping' as suitable for introduction around the Kainji Lake area. In the long term, the programme will assist increasing especially the income of female members of fishing families, since poultry is kept in the villages mainly by women. (PDF contains 35 pages)

Income, inequality, and criteria air pollutants in the CAMA counties

Socioeconomic factors have long been incorporated into environmental research to examine the effects of human dimensions on coastal natural resources. Boyce (1994) proposed that inequality is a cause of environmental degradation and the Environmental Kuznets Curve is a proposed relationship that income or GDP per capita is related with initial increases in pollution followed by subsequent decreases (Torras and Boyce, 1998). To further examine this relationship within the CAMA counties, the emission of sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxides, as measured by the EPA in terms of tons emitted, the Gini Coefficient, and income per capita were examined for the year of 1999. A quadratic regression was utilized and the results did not indicate that inequality, as measured by the Gini Coefficient, was significantly related to the level of criteria air pollutants within each county. Additionally, the results did not indicate the existence of the Environmental Kuznets Curve. Further analysis of spatial autocorrelation using ArcMap 9.2, found a high level of spatial autocorrelation among pollution emissions indicating that relation to other counties may be more important to the level of sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxide emissions than income per capita and inequality. Lastly, the paper concludes that further Environmental Kuznets Curve and income inequality analyses in regards to air pollutant levels incorporate spatial patterns as well as other explanatory variables. (PDF contains 4 pages)

An assessment of the implementation of alternative income sources for fishermen's wives as a strategy for poverty alleviation under the Kainji Lake Fisheries Promotion Project

Kainji Lake Basin is the first man-made Lake in Nigeria with a surface area of 1270km super(2). Since its creation in 1968 research activities were carried out on biological, socio-economic, hydrological and limnological characteristics of the water body. Extension activities concentrated on the dissemination of proven technologies developed by the Research scientists. Most of the socio-economic and extension activities focused on fishermen as women were regarded as homemakers and their activities concentrated in the home. The situation is even compounded by the Islamic injunction of seclusion. The intervention of NGKLFPP in 1993 has introduced many changes into the research and extension activities directed at the beneficiaries of the project because women were considered as a major stakeholder around the Lake area. The intervention of the project in Kainji Lake in the introduction of alternative income generating activities to women is enumerated in this paper. The intervention has improved the living standard of women and to a certain level reduced poverty among women in the area

Additional income generating activities for fishermen wives in Kainji Lake basin

The quest for food security and poverty alleviation among rural fisherfolks is imperative in the context of rural development. Rural fishermen and women do not only partake in fishing and related activities in order to make ends meet but also seek more sustainable ways of absorbing shocks and reducing their vulnerability to unforeseen economics conditions. These they do through diversification of their efforts to such activities that enables them have good leverage over poverty and food scarcity. It is in this context that Nigerian-German Technical Co-operation (GTZ) sought to assist the fisherfolks to help themselves by training the fishermen wives on knowledge and skill acquisition in Soya bean processing and utilization as a means of generating additional income for the household in Kainji Lake basin. This work was therefore carried out in order to make an objective investigation into the impact of this training on the economy of the fisherfolks. Sixty respondents, who constitute fishermen wives, were randomly selected from twelve fishing villages in the basin. 76.7% of those interviewed affirmed that the project has increased their income while others agreed that it has actually reduced their expenditure on food while increasing food supply and variety for the household

Edible seaweeds: an important source of food and income to indigenous Fijians

The increasing harvest of 7 edible seaweeds in Fiji and their importance to the economy of indigenous Fijians are discussed. Traditional methods in the collection, preparation and consumption of seaweeds by the Fijians are also presented.

The Atlantic and Gulf Menhaden Purse Seine Fisheries: Origins, Harvesting Technologies, Biostatistical Monitoring, Recent Trends in Fisheries Statistics, and Forecasting

With its genesis in New England during the 1800's, the purse seine fishery for Atlantic menhaden, Brevoortia tyrannus, expanded south and by the early 1900's ranged the length of the eastern seaboard. The purse seine fishery for Gulf menhaden. B. patronus, is of relatively recent development, exploitation of the stock beginning in the late 1940's. Landings from both fisheries annually comprise 35-40% of the total U. S. fisheries landings, ranking menhaden first in terms of volume landed. Technological advances in harvesting methods, fish-spotting capabilities, and vessel designs accelerated after World War II, resulting in larger, faster, and wider-ranging carrier vessels, improved speed and efficiency of the harvest, and reduction in labor requirements. Chief products of the menhaden industry are fish meal, fish oil, and solubles, but research into new product lines is underway. Since 1955 on the Atlantic coast and 1964 on the Gulf coast, the NMFS has monitored the fisheries for biostatistical data. Annual data summaries of numbers-of-fish-at-age harvested, catch tonnage, and fishing effort of the fleet form the basis of routine stock assessments and annual catch forecasts to industry for the upcoming fishing season. After landings declined in the 1960's, the Atlantic menhaden stock has recovered through the 1970's and 1980's. Exceptional year classes of Gulf menhaden in recent years account for record landings during the 1980's.

Year 1 operational report: Improving employment and income through development of Egypt’s aquaculture sector(IEIDEAS) project

Implementation of the SDC funded project ‘Improving Employment and Income through Development of Egypt’s Aquaculture Sector’ commenced on 1st December 2011 and will continue until late 2014. This report summarizes the results of the first 10 months until 30th September 2012. The project was based on a value chain analysis carried out by WorldFish in September 2011. The information in the VCA acts as the baseline for the main project parameters. It established that the aquaculture value chain is a significant employer (14 FTE per 100 tonnes of annual production), particularly in rural areas and there was scope to increase employment of youth and women.

Determinants of small-scale fishermen's income on Oman's Batinah Coast

The small-scale fishing industry of Oman is responsible for almost 90 percent of the total marine fishery production. It is also the main supplier of fish for Omani households. This study analyzes the factors that determine small-scale fishermen’s income on Oman’s Batinah Coast, which has almost 30 percent of Oman’s population and more than one-third of the small-scale fishermen. We find that fishermen’s income here can be explained broadly under four major blocks of variables: geographical region, fishing inputs and catch, socioeconomic and demographic characteristics, and the nature of the relationship with fisheries extension services. In general, the Wilayat (local administrative units) failed to make any significant impact on fishermen’s income. The variable “Fishing inputs and catch,” such as increases in engine power, boat length, weekly catch, and number of weekly trips, positively impacted fishermen’s income while increases in weekly fishing costs, number of crew members, and difficulty in getting ice had a significantly negative effect on the income. Furthermore, socioeconomic and demographic characteristics also contributed significantly in determining the fishermen’s income level. The other important findings were related to extension services. The variables “Fishermen’s exchange of information and cooperation with the ministry” and “Fishermen’s involvement in the extension activities” were found to have positive effects on fishermen’s income levels. Capitalizing on these findings could improve fishermen’s incomes and their lives across the region, as well as nationally.