PICES-GLOBEC International Program on Climate Change and Carrying Capacity: Report of 2001 BASS/MODEL, MONITOR and REX Workshops, and the 2002 MODEL/REX Workshop

Table of Contents [pdf, 0.22 Mb] Executive Summary [pdf, 0.31 Mb] Report of the 2001 BASS/MODEL Workshop [pdf, 0.65 Mb] To review ecosystem models for the subarctic gyres Report of the 2001 MONITOR Workshop [pdf, 0.7 Mb] To review ecosystem models for the subarctic gyres Workshop presentations: Sonia D. Batten PICES Continuous Plankton Recorder pilot project Phillip R. Mundy GEM (Exxon Valdez Oil Spill Trustee Council`s "Gulf Ecosystem Monitoring" initiative) and U.S. GOOS plans in the North Pacific Ron McLaren and Brian O`Donnell A proposal for a North Pacific Action group of the international Data Buoy Cooperation Panel Gilberto Gaxiola-Castrol and Sila Najera-Martinez The Mexican oceanographic North Pacific program: IMECOCAL Sydney Levitus Building global ocean profile and plankton databases for scientific research Report of the 2001 REX Workshop [pdf, 1.73 Mb] On temporal variations in size-at-age for fish species in coastal areas around the Pacific Rim Workshop presentations: Brian J. Pyper, Randall M. Peterman, Michael F. Lapointe and Carl J. Walters [pdf, 0.33 Mb] Spatial patterns of covariation in size-at-age of British Columbia and Alaska sockeye salmon stocks and effects of abundance and ocean temperature R. Bruce MacFarlane, Steven Ralston, Chantell Royer and Elizabeth C. Norton [pdf, 0.4 Mb] Influences of the 1997-1998 El Niño and 1999 La Niña on juvenile Chinook salmon in the Gulf of the Farallones Olga S. Temnykh and Sergey L. Marchenko [pdf, 0.5 Mb] Variability of the pink salmon sizes in relation with abundance of Okhotsk Sea stocks Ludmila A. Chernoivanova, Alexander N. Vdoven and D.V. Antonenko [pdf, 0.3 Mb] The characteristic growth rate of herring in Peter the Great Bay (Japan/East Sea) Nikolay I. Naumenko [pdf, 0.5 Mb] Temporal variations in size-at-age of the western Bering Sea herring Evelyn D. Brown [pdf, 0.45 Mb] Effects of climate on Pacific herring, Clupea pallasii, in the northern Gulf of Alaska and Prince William Sound, Alaska Jake Schweigert, Fritz Funk, Ken Oda and Tom Moore [pdf, 0.6 Mb] Herring size-at-age variation in the North Pacific Ron W. Tanasichuk [pdf, 0.3 Mb] Implications of variation in euphausiid productivity for the growth, production and resilience of Pacific herring (Clupea pallasi) from the southwest coast of Vancouver Island Chikako Watanabe, Ahihiko Yatsu and Yoshiro Watanabe [pdf, 0.3 Mb] Changes in growth with fluctuation of chub mackerel abundance in the Pacific waters off central Japan from 1970 to 1997 Yoshiro Watanabe, Yoshiaki Hiyama, Chikako Watanabe and Shiro Takayana [pdf, 0.35 Mb] Inter-decadal fluctuations in length-at-age of Hokkaido-Sakhalin herring and Japanese sardine in the Sea of Japan Pavel A. Balykin and Alexander V. Buslov [pdf, 0.4 Mb] Long-term variability in length of walley pollock in the western Bering Sea and east Kamchtka Alexander A. Bonk [pdf, 0.4 Mb] Effect of population abundance increase on herring distribution in the western Bering Sea Sergey N. Tarasyuk [pdf, 0.4 Mb] Survival of yellowfin sole (Limanda aspera Pallas) in the northern part of the Tatar Strait (Sea of Japan) during the second half of the 20th century Report of the 2002 MODEL/REX Workshop [pdf, 1.2 Mb] To develop a marine ecosystem model of the North Pacific Ocean including pelagic fishes Summary and Overview [pdf, 0.4 Mb] Workshop presentations: Bernard A. Megrey, Kenny Rose, Francisco E. Werner, Robert A. Klumb and Douglas E. Hay [pdf, 0.47 Mb] A generalized fish bioenergetics/biomass model with an application to Pacific herring Robert A. Klumb [pdf, 0.34 Mb] Review of Clupeid biology with emphasis on energetics Douglas E. Hay [pdf, 0.47 Mb] Reflections of factors affecting size-at-age and strong year classes of herring in the North Pacific Shin-ichi Ito, Yutaka Kurita, Yoshioki Oozeki, Satoshi Suyama, Hiroya Sugisaki and Yongjin Tian [pdf, 0.34 Mb] Review for Pacific saury (Cololabis saira) study under the VENFISH project lexander V. Leonov and Gennady A. Kantakov [pdf, 0.34 Mb] Formalization of interactions between chemical and biological compartments in the mathematical model describing the transformation of nitrogen, phosphorus, silicon and carbon compounds Herring group report and model results [pdf, 0.34 Mb] Saury group report and model results [pdf, 0.46 Mb] Model experiments and hypotheses Recommendations [pdf, 0.4 Mb] Achievements and future steps Acknowledgements [pdf, 0.29 Mb] References [pdf, 0.32 Mb] Appendix 1. List of Participants [pdf, 0.32 Mb] Appendices 2-5. FORTRAN codes [pdf, 0.4 Mb] (Document pdf contains 182 pages)

Prediction, Chaos and Ecological Perspective.

As defined, the modeling procedure is quite broad. For example, the chosen compartments may contain a single organism, a population of organisms, or an ensemble of populations. A population compartment, in turn, could be homogeneous or possess structure in size or age. Likewise, the mathematical statements may be deterministic or probabilistic in nature, linear or nonlinear, autonomous or able to possess memory. Examples of all types appear in the literature. In practice, however, ecosystem modelers have focused upon particular types of model constructions. Most analyses seem to treat compartments which are nonsegregated (populations or trophic levels) and homogeneous. The accompanying mathematics is, for the most part, deterministic and autonomous. Despite the enormous effort which has gone into such ecosystem modeling, there remains a paucity of models which meets the rigorous &! validation criteria which might be applied to a model of a mechanical system. Most ecosystem models are short on prediction ability. Even some classical examples, such as the Lotka-Volterra predator-prey scheme, have not spawned validated examples.

The Empirical Modeling of an Ecosystem

The authors have endeavored to create a verified a-posteriori model of a planktonic ecosystem. Verification of an empirically derived set of first-order, quadratic differential equations proved elusive due to the sensitivity of the model system to changes in initial conditions. Efforts to verify a similarly derived set of linear differential equations were more encouraging, yielding reasonable behavior for half of the ten ecosystem compartments modeled. The well-behaved species models gave indications as to the rate-controlling processes in the ecosystem.

In situ measurement of dissolved inorganic carbon speciation in natural waters, pH, pC02, TA, & TC02, Honolulu, Hawaii, February 16-18, 2005: workshop proceedings

The Alliance for Coastal Technology (ACT) convened a workshop on the in situ measurement of dissolved inorganic carbon species in natural waters in Honolulu, Hawaii, on February 16, 17, and 18, 2005. The workshop was designed to summarize existing technologies for measuring the abundance and speciation of dissolved inorganic carbon and to make strategic recommendations for future development and application of these technologies to coastal research and management. The workshop was not focused on any specific technology, however, most of the attention of the workshop was on in situ pC02 sensors given their recent development and use on moorings for the measurement of global carbon fluxes. In addition, the problems and limitations arising from the long-term deployment of systems designed for the measurement of pH, total dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC), and total alkalinity (TA) were discussed. Participants included researchers involved in carbon biogeochemistry, industry representatives, and coastal resource managers. The primary questions asked during the workshop were: I. What are the major impediments to transform presently used shipboard pC02 measurement systems for use on cost-eficient moorings? 2. What are the major technical hurdles for the in situ measurement of TA and DIC? 3. What specific information do we need to coordinate efforts for proof of concept' testing of existing and new technologies, inter-calibration of those technologies, better software development, and more precise knowledge quantzjjing the geochemistry of dissolved inoeanic carbon species in order to develop an observing system for dissolved inorganic carbon? Based on the discussion resulting from these three questions, the following statements were made: Statement No. 1 Cost-effective, self-contained technologies for making long-term, accurate measurements of the partial pressure of C02 gas in water already exist and at present are ready for deployment on moorings in coastal observing systems. Statement No. 2 Cost-effective, self-contained systems for the measurement of pH, TA, and DIC are still needed to both fully define the carbonate chemistry of coastal waters and the fluxes of carbon between major biogeochemical compartments (e.g., air-sea, shelf-slope, water column-sediment, etc.). (pdf contains 23 pages)

Fischbestände der Ostsee, ihre Entwicklung seit 1970 und Schlussfolgerungen für ihre fischereiliche Nutzung - Teil 2: Hering

The herring of the Baltic Sea shows a complicated population structure. Comparable to herring in other areas it can also be discriminated as spring and autumn spawning herring. Autumn spawning herring has been nearly vanished since the late 1960’s. Baltic Sea spring spawning herring show a broad variety as far as morphometric and other biological characteristics are concerned. It seems not very likely that all those differences are genetically based. The spawning sites of populations are, however, often clearly separated and such groups of herring are in most cases characterized by distinct differences in individual growth. Therefore for assessment purposes it is necessary to distinguish between as small as possible units in order to not endanger smaller populations to become extinct by overexploitation. On the other hand migrations and mixing of herring of different origin especially during the summer feeding period result in extreme difficulties of the discrimination of small units. For this reason only three herring assess ment units have been identified for the central and the northern Baltic Sea: herring in Sub-divisions 25–32+32, herring in Sub-division 30 and herring in Sub-division31. The spring spawning herring of the western Baltic Sea has been combined with spring spawning herring in Division IIIa. Only the herring stock in Sub-division 30 shows a positive development in the past. The largest assessment unit in Sub-divisions 25–29+32 decreased continuously during the whole period 1974–1998. The western Baltic Spring spawning herring stock decreased from 1990 to 1996. There is an ongoing debate on scientific level whether the combination of small populations into large assessment units like the one in S-D’s 25–29&32 might include the danger of the extinction of small compartments of the unit. On the other hand the practice by the International Baltic Sea Fishery Commission of managing the Baltic Sea herring fisheries by dividing a yearly Total Allowable Catch for the whole area among fishery zones without taking care of any biological structure and any individual stock development is totally against the idea of sustainability of fisheries.

Sensorische Bewertung, Mikrobiologie und chemische Kenngrößen von eisgelagertem Wittling (Merlangius merlangus)

During the 160th research cruise of the FRV "Walther Herwig III" in the North Sea in May 1995 an ice-storage experiment with whiting was performed. Gutted whiting with and without spleen was stored in melting water-ice. Freshness and/or spoilage were monitored by measuring sensory, chemical, physical and microbiological indicators. It was found that besides the classical sensory assessment on the cooked sample and the EU-quality grading scheme, the microbiological counts were of major importance for the determination of the degree of freshness or spoilage. The cfu (colony forming units) of spoilage bacteria on the skin correlated significantly with time in ice. A very good correlation was also found for the cfu of spoilage bacteria with the sensory assessed odour of the cooked fillet sample. The measurement of the fish tissue with the Intellectron Fischtester VI and the determination of the creatine content in fillet are both suitable freshness and spoilage indicators. The pH-value measured in different body compartments and in musele homogenate and the ammonia content are only of limited value for freshness determination. Removal of kidney did not influence the shelf life.

Experimente über die Wirkung von UV-B auf pelagische Fischembryonen in einem Sonnenscheinsimulator

One of the supposed effects of the observed ozone depletion is the increase of solar UV-B irradiation at the seasurface. This will cause an impact on certain compartments of marine ecosystems. Especially, sensitive developmental stages of pelagic fish embryos might be affected. Embryos of dab (Limanda limanda) and plaice (Pleuronectes plalessa) were experimentally exposed 10 different amounts of UVB irradiation in a sunshine simulator. This programmable device allows the dosage of realistic solar irradiation in quality and guantity. Experiments were carried out in March 1995 and February 1996. Either artificially inserninated and reared emhryos of dab and plaice or embryos caught in the German Bight were exposed to simulated solar irradiation. The 1995 experiments served to identify the effective irradiation dosages. For the 1996 experiments irradiation applied was much lower, being dose to realistic valucs expected over the North Sea as a consequence of ozone depletion. The following end points were studied: 1. Mortality, 2. sublethal morphological effects (malformations), 3. DNA damage, 4. changes in buoyancy of embryos measured as changes in osmolarity of the perivitelline fluid. Conditions for the simulation of daylight were a c1oudless sky with a solar zenith distance of 34 % (air mass 1.2). The adopted ozone depletion was 40 % corresponding to 180 DU (Dobson Units) instead of 300 DU. In the 1995 experiments time and dosage dependent influenccs on mortality and buoyancy of embryos of dab and plaice were found. Even in those embryos which were protected from the UV-B spectral range a loss of buoyancy was registered after 12 hours in the simulator. No diffcrences in DNA integrity as determined by DNA unwinding of exposed and control embryos were found. Also with lower amounts of irradiation in the 1996 experiments dosage dependent acute mortality, malformations, and impact on the buoyancy of the emhryos was registered. Sublethal effects occurred as well in embryos protected against UV-B in the exposure chambers, but were not found in the dark controls. The impact of low dosages of UV-B on the buoyancy of pelagic fish embryos might indicate an important ecological threat and deserves further studies.

Brevetoxin in two planktivorous fishes after exposure to Karenia brevis: implications for food-web transfer to bottlenose dolphins

Brevetoxin uptake was analyzed in 2 common planktivorous fish that are likely foodweb vectors for dolphin mortality events associated with brevetoxin-producing red tides. Fish were exposed to brevetoxin-producing Karenia brevis for 10 h under conditions previously reported to produce optimal uptake of toxin in blood after oral exposure. Striped mullet Mugil cephalus were exposed to a low dose of brevetoxin, and uptake and depuration by specific organs were evaluated over a 2 mo period. Atlantic menhaden Brevoortia tyrannus specimens were used to characterize a higher brevetoxin dose uptake into whole body components and evaluate depuration over 1 mo. We found a high uptake of toxin by menhaden, with a body to water ratio of 57 after a 10 h exposure and a slow elimination with a half life (t1/2) of 24 d. Elimination occurred rapidly from the intestine (t1/2 < 1 wk) and muscle (t1/2 ≈ 1 wk) compartments and redistributed to liver which continued to accumulate body stores of toxin for 4 wk. The accumulation and elimination characteristics of the vectoring capacity of these 2 fish species are interpreted in relation to data from the Florida Panhandle dolphin mortality event of 2004. We show that due to slow elimination rate of brevetoxin in planktivorous fish, brevetoxin-related dolphin mortality events may occur without evidence of a concurrent harmful algal bloom event.