Extreme events and ecological forecasting

Almost all extreme events lasting less than several weeks that significantly impact ecosystems are weather related. This review examines the response of estuarine systems to intense short-term perturbations caused by major weather events such as hurricanes. Current knowledge concerning these effects is limited to relatively few studies where hurricanes and storms impacted estuaries with established environmental monitoring programs. Freshwater inputs associated with these storms were found to initially result in increased primary productivity. When hydrographic conditions are favorable, bacterial consumption of organic matter produced by the phytoplankton blooms and deposited during the initial runoff event can contribute to significant oxygen deficits during subsequent warmer periods. Salinity stress and habitat destruction associated with freshwater inputs, as well as anoxia, adversely affect benthic populations and fish. In contrast, mobile invertebrate species such as shrimp, which have a short life cycle and the ability to migrate during the runoff event, initially benefit from the increased primary productivity and decreased abundance of fish predators. Events studied so far indicate that estuaries rebound in one to three years following major short-term perturbations. However, repeated storm events without sufficient recovery time may cause a fundamental shift in ecosystem structure (Scavia et al. 2002). This is a scenario consistent with the predicted increase in hurricanes for the east coast of the United States. More work on the response of individual species to these stresses is needed so management of commercial resources can be adjusted to allow sufficient recovery time for affected populations.

Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States: a state of knowledge report from the U.S. Global Change Research Program

Executive Summary: Observations show that warming of the climate is unequivocal. The global warming observed over the past 50 years is due primarily to human-induced emissions of heat-trapping gases. These emissions come mainly from the burning of fossil fuels (coal, oil, and gas), with important contributions from the clearing of forests, agricultural practices, and other activities. Warming over this century is projected to be considerably greater than over the last century. The global average temperature since 1900 has risen by about 1.5ºF. By 2100, it is projected to rise another 2 to 11.5ºF. The U.S. average temperature has risen by a comparable amount and is very likely to rise more than the global average over this century, with some variation from place to place. Several factors will determine future temperature increases. Increases at the lower end of this range are more likely if global heat-trapping gas emissions are cut substantially. If emissions continue to rise at or near current rates, temperature increases are more likely to be near the upper end of the range. Volcanic eruptions or other natural variations could temporarily counteract some of the human-induced warming, slowing the rise in global temperature, but these effects would only last a few years. Reducing emissions of carbon dioxide would lessen warming over this century and beyond. Sizable early cuts in emissions would significantly reduce the pace and the overall amount of climate change. Earlier cuts in emissions would have a greater effect in reducing climate change than comparable reductions made later. In addition, reducing emissions of some shorter-lived heat-trapping gases, such as methane, and some types of particles, such as soot, would begin to reduce warming within weeks to decades. Climate-related changes have already been observed globally and in the United States. These include increases in air and water temperatures, reduced frost days, increased frequency and intensity of heavy downpours, a rise in sea level, and reduced snow cover, glaciers, permafrost, and sea ice. A longer ice-free period on lakes and rivers, lengthening of the growing season, and increased water vapor in the atmosphere have also been observed. Over the past 30 years, temperatures have risen faster in winter than in any other season, with average winter temperatures in the Midwest and northern Great Plains increasing more than 7ºF. Some of the changes have been faster than previous assessments had suggested. These climate-related changes are expected to continue while new ones develop. Likely future changes for the United States and surrounding coastal waters include more intense hurricanes with related increases in wind, rain, and storm surges (but not necessarily an increase in the number of these storms that make landfall), as well as drier conditions in the Southwest and Caribbean. These changes will affect human health, water supply, agriculture, coastal areas, and many other aspects of society and the natural environment. This report synthesizes information from a wide variety of scientific assessments (see page 7) and recently published research to summarize what is known about the observed and projected consequences of climate change on the United States. It combines analysis of impacts on various sectors such as energy, water, and transportation at the national level with an assessment of key impacts on specific regions of the United States. For example, sea-level rise will increase risks of erosion, storm surge damage, and flooding for coastal communities, especially in the Southeast and parts of Alaska. Reduced snowpack and earlier snow melt will alter the timing and amount of water supplies, posing significant challenges for water resource management in the West. (PDF contains 196 pages)

Some factors affecting the distribution and apparent abundance of yellowfin and skipjack tuna in the Eastern Pacific Ocean

ENGLISH: Since 1951, the Inter-American Tropical Tuna Commission has been investigating the biology, ecology and population dynamics of the yellowfin tuna, Thunnus albacares, and the skipjack tuna, Katsuwonus pelamis, in the Eastern Pacific Ocean. Of particular importance has been the study of the effects of fishing and of fishery-independent factors on the abundance and distribution of these tunas. For yellowfin tuna there is, on the average, an inverse relationship between total fishing effort and apparent abundance (Schaefer, 1957a). For skipjack there is no evidence to suggest that fishing effort has ever been sufficiently intense to affect measurably the abundance (Schaefer, 1961). Rather, it appears that the year-to-year fluctuations in apparent abundance are independent of the activities of the fishing fleets. SPANISH: Desde 1951 la Comisión Interamericana del Atún Tropical se ha dedicado a la investigación de la biología, ecología y la dinámica de las poblaciones del atún aleta amarilla, Thunnus albacares, y del barrilete, Katsuwonus pelamis, en el Océano Pacífico del Este. De importancia especial ha sido el estudio de los efectos de la pesca y de los factores independientes de las pesquerías sobre la abundancia y la distribución de esos atunes. En cuanto al atún aleta amarilla, existe, en promedio, una relación inversa entre el esfuerzo total de pesca y la abundancia aparente (Schaefer, 1957a) . Con respecto al barrilete, no hay evidencia que haga pensar que el esfuerzo de pesca haya sido nunca lo suficientemente intenso como para afectar sensiblemente la abundancia (Schaefer, 1961). Más bien parece que las fluctuaciones de un año a otro en su abundancia aparente, son independientes de las actividades de las flotas pesqueras.

Feeding Ecology of Humpback Whales in Continental Shelf Waters near Cordell Bank, California

Daytime feeding behavior of humpback whales (Megaptera novaeangliae) in Gulf of the Farallones, California, and adjacent waters was observed during autumn of 1988 to 1990. Bodega Canyon, Cordell Bank, and the Farallon Islands were the primary sites of feeding activity. Fecal samples of whales and zooplankton tows contained euphausiids exclusively, dominated by Thysanoessa spinifera (79%), with lesser amounts of Euphausia pacifica (14%), Nyctiphanes simplex (4%), and Nematoscelis difficilis (3%). In 1988 and 1990, whales also were infrequently observed feeding on small schooling fish, presumably Pacific herring (Clupea pallasii), northern anchovy (Engraulis mordax), and juvenile rockfish (Sebastes spp.). Feeding was the most common behavior observed (52%), and less frequently traveling (23%), milling (21 %), and resting (4%). Whales used different methods to consume euphausiid prey at the surface (0-10 m), in shallow water (11-60 m), and deep water (61-140 m). Humpback whales fed at the surface 56% of time in 1988 and 32% of time in 1990, using primarily lateral lunges to capture swarms of euphausiids. In 1989, no surface feeding was observed; however, deep, long-duration dives were followed by extended surface intervals with many respirations. These 1989 observations coincided with increased prey depth as indicated by depth sounder records of diving whales and prey scattering layers. In 1989, increased prey depth and associated feeding behaviors were strongly associated with unusually high surface temperatures, calm seas, and changes in water circulation. Environmental conditions in 1989 triggered the most intense and wide-spread occurrence of red tide in this region since 1980. Red tide samples collected throughout this period contained Alexandrium (=Gonyaulax) catenella and Noctiluca scintillans. Surface feeding was observed only in 1988 and 1990, when surface prey were available and red tides were very limited in extent, duration, and intensity. Annual variations in humpback whale feeding behavior were related to prey availability which is affected by corresponding environmental conditions. (PDF contains 94 pages)

Biology, Oceanography, and Fisheries of the North Pacific Transition Zone and Subarctic Frontal Zone: Papers from the North Pacific Transition Zone Workshop, Honolulu, Hawaii, 9-11 May 1988

In the past few years, large-scale, high-seas driftnet fishing has sparked intense debate and political conflict in many oceanic regions. In the Pacific Ocean the driftnet controversy first emerged in the North Pacific transition zone and subarctic frontal zone, where driftnet vessels from Japan, the Republic of Korea, and Taiwan pursue their target species of neon flying squid. Other North Pacific driftnet fleets from Japan and Taiwan target stocks of tunas and billfishes. Both types of driftnet fishing incidentally kill valued non-target species of marine life, including fish, mammals, birds, and turtles. In response to public concerns about driftnet fishing, government scientists began early on to assemble available information and consider what new data were required to assess impacts on North Pacific marine resources and the broader pelagic ecosystem. Accordingly, a workshop was convened at the NMFS Honolulu Laboratory in May 1988 to review current information on the biology, oceanography, and fisheries of the North Pacific transition zone and subarctic frontal zone. The workshop participants, from the United States and Canada, also developed a strategic plan to guide NMFS in developing a program of driftnet fishery research and impact assessment. This volume contains a selection of scientific review papers presented at the 1988 Honolulu workshop. The papers represent part of the small kernel of information available then, prior to the expansion of cooperative international scientific programs. Subsequent driftnet fishery monitoring and research by the United States, Canada, Japan, Korea, and Taiwan have added much new data. Nevertheless, this collection of papers provides a historical perspective and contains useful information not readily available elsewhere. (PDF file contains 118 pages.)

An Economics Guide to Allocation of Fish Stocks between Commercial and Recreational Fisheries

The increasingly intense competition between commercial and recreational fishermen for access to fish stocks has focused attention on the economic implications of fishery allocations. Indeed, one can scarcely find a management plan or amendment that does not at least refer to the relative food and sport values of fish and to how expenditures by commercial and recreational fishermen on equipment and supplies stimulate the economy. However, many of the arguments raised by constituents to influence such allocations, while having an seemingly "economics" ring to them, are usually incomplete, distorted, and even incorrect. This report offers fishery managers and other interested parties a guide to correct notions of economic value and to the appropriate ways to characterize, estimate, and compare value. In particular, introductory material from benefitcost analysis and input-output analysis is described and illustrated. In the process, several familiar specious arguments are exposed.(PDF file contains 34 pages.)

Some aspects of the ecology of the leatherback turtle Dermochelys coriacea at Laguna Jalova, Costa Rica

The ecology and reproductive biology of the leatherback turtle (Dennochelys coriacea) was studied on a high-energy nesting beach near Laguna Jalova, Costa Rica, between 28 March and 8 June 1985. The peak of nesting was between 15 April and 21 May. Leatherbacks here measured an average 146.6 cm straightline standard carapace length and laid an average 81.57 eggs. The eggs measured a mean 52.12 mm diameter and weighed an average of 85.01 g. Significant positive relationships were found between the carapace lengths of nesters and their clutch sizes and average diameter and weight of eggs. The total clutch weighed between 4.02 and 13.39 kg, and yolkless eggs accounted for an average 12.4% of this weight. The majority of nesters dug shallow (<24 cm) body pits and spent an average 81 minutes at the nest site. A significant number of c1utcbes were laid below the berm crest. In a hatchery 42.2% of the eggs hatched, while in natural nests 70.2% hatched. The average hatchling carapace length was 59.8 mm and weight was 44.6 g. The longevity of leatherback tracks and nests on the beach was affected by weather. One nester was recaptured about one year later off the coast of Mississippi, U.S.A. Egg poaching was intense on some sections of the Costa Rican coast. Four aerial surveys in four different months provided the basis for comparing density of nesting on seven sectors of the Caribbean coast of Costa Rica. The beach at Jalova is heavily used by green turtles (Chelonia mydJJs) after the leatherback nesting season. The role of the Parque Nacional Tortuguero in conserving the leatherback and green turtle is discussed.(PDF file contains 20 pages.)

Die lage der Fischbestände in Nordostatlantik, Nord- und Ostsee. Einschätzungen des Internationalen Rates für Meeresforschung im Frühjahr 2000

The spring session of ACFM gave advice for a number of stocks in the North Atlantic, North Sea and Baltic. The present assessment of the situation is given here for stocks of higher importance for the German fishery. These are: Blue Whiting: the stock is still relatively high, this, however, will not last very long, due to too intense fishing. Cod in Kattegat: stock is outside safe biological limits. No immediate recovery in sight. Cod in 22–24 (Baltic): stock is inside save biological limits. F, however, is above the recommendation of the IBSFC. Greenland Halibut: state of the stock not quite clear. The present fishing intensity seems to be sustainable. Herring (Atlanto- scandian, Norwegian spring spawner): stock is within safe biological limits, weak recruitment of the recent years will lead to a reduction of biomass. Herring: for Baltic spring spawner in 22–24 and IIIa still no increasing tendency detectable. North Sea Herring: further increasing tendency, with 900 000 t over B lim, good recruitment. Herring in VIa: stable. Redfish: generally decreasing tendency observed, a reduction of the fishery is recommended. Signs of recovery, however, visible for some units

Beurteilung der Fischbestände in Nordatlantik, Nord- und Ostsee. Einschätzung durch den Internationalen Rat für Meeresforschung vom Mai 1999

The spring session of ACFM gave advice for a number of stocks in the North Atlantic, North Sea and Baltic. The situation is given here for stocks of higher importance for the German fishery. These are: Blue Whiting: A short term upwards trend is observed, which, however, will not last very long, due to too intense fishing. Cod in Kattegat: Stock is outside safe biological limits. No immediate recovery in sight. Cod in Sub. Div. 22– 24 (Baltic): Stock is outside safe biological limits. Due to weak recruitment not immediate recovery in prospect. Greenland Halibut: Stock outside safe biological limits and still in downward trend. Herring (atlanto-scandian, Norw. spring spawner): Stock inside safe biological limits, weak recruitment of the past 5 years will, however, lead to a reduction of the biomass. Redfish: Generally decreasing tendency observed, a reduction of the fishery is recommended.

The past history and present trends in the fisheries of Lake Chad

Lake Chad is a very large, shallow eutrophic lake shared by Chad, Nigeria, Niger and Cameroun. It supplies approximately 13% of Nigeria's inland fish. It however lies in an unstable ecological environment characterised by intermittent period of rainfall and drought. This creates a very large draw down area. Consequently, the fisheries are affected by the oscillation in the size of lake due to the drought. Other factors affecting the volume of water are the numerous dams on the inflow rivers. The fishery is also subjected to intense overfishing and may be affected by pollution and other land use practices. The paper discusses changes that took place over the years as a result of the factors of drought, effect of dams on the inflow rivers. The fishery is also subjected to intense overfishing and may be affected by pollution and other land use practices. The paper discusses changes that took place over the years as a result of the factors of drought, effects of dams and overexploitation. Previous records of fish production, species composition and distribution, the status of the fish stocks, their sizes are compared with more recent data. The status of the fishery before and after the contraction of the lake is discussed. Suggestion for a national exploitation of the lake based on habitat improvement, increasing the volume of the water in the lake through controlled use of the influent rivers as well as reduction in overfishing are made

Climate change adaptation and planning: An example from Kailua Beach, Oahu, Hawaii

The University of Hawaii Sea Grant College Program (UHSG) in partnership with the Hawaii Department of Land and Natural Resources (DLNR), Office of Conservation and Coastal Lands (OCCL) is developing a beach and dune management plan for Kailua Beach on the eastern shoreline of Oahu. The objective of the plan is to develop a comprehensive beach management and land use development plan for Kailua Beach that reflects the state of scientific understanding of beach processes in Kailua Bay and abutting shoreline areas and is intended to provide long-term recommendations to adapting to climate change including potential coastal hazards such as sea level rise. The development of the plan has lead to wider recognition of the significance of projected sea level rise to the region and provides the rational behind some of the land use conservation strategies. The plan takes on a critical light given global predictions for continued, possibly accelerated, sea-level rise and the ongoing focus of intense development along the Hawaiian shoreline. Hawaii’s coastal resource managers are faced with the daunting prospect of managing the effects of erosion while simultaneously monitoring and regulating high-risk coastal development that often impacts the shoreline. The beach and dune preservation plan is the first step in a more comprehensive effort prepare for and adapt to sea level rise and ensure the preservation of the beach and dune ecosystem for the benefit of present and future generations. The Kailua Beach and Dune Management plan is intended to be the first in a series of regional plans in Hawaii to address climate change adaptation through land use planning. (PDF contains 3 pages)

Encouraging sustainable development in a coastal community: New Hanover County, North Carolina's exceptional design zoning district

While New Hanover County is the second smallest county in North Carolina, it is also the second most densely populated with approximately 850 people per square mile. Nestled between the Cape Fear River and Atlantic Ocean with surrounding barrier island beach communities, the County’s geographic location provides a prime vacation destination, as well as an ideal location for residents who wish to live at the water’s edge. Wilmington is the largest city in the County with a population just under 200,000. Most of the Wilmington metropolitan area is developed, creating intense development pressures for the remaining undeveloped land in the unincorporated County. In order to provide development opportunities for mixed use or high density projects within unincorporated New Hanover County where appropriate urban features are in place to support such projects without the negative effects of urban sprawl, County Planning Staff recently developed an Exceptional Design Zoning District (EDZD). Largely based on the LEED for Neighborhood Development program, the EDZD standards were scaled to fit the unique conditions of the County with the goal of encouraging sustainable development while providing density incentives to entice the use of the voluntary district. The incentive for the voluntary zoning district is increased density in areas where the density may not be allowed under normal circumstances. The rationale behind allowing for higher density projects is that development can be concentrated in areas where appropriate urban features are in place to support such projects, and the tendency toward urban sprawl can be minimized. With water quality being of high importance, it is perceived that higher density development will better protect water quality then lower density projects. (PDF contains 4 pages)

Salvaging the freshwater ecosystems in Nigeria: great threat to sustainable fisheries and aquaculture development

Nigeria, the country of many rivers is also rich in lakes, and wetlands, sustainable and wise use of these inland aquatic ecosystem and water resources has become a matter of widespread and intense concern. Unhealthy freshwater ecosystems and seriously diminishing and unequal availability of quality freshwater call for high quality limnological research and expertise to underpin the enhancement of sustainable fisheries and aquaculture development.In every regard of national health, agriculture and economics, the continued over exploitation and misuse of finite freshwater resources is directly causal to the progressively deteriorating fish production and general standard of living.The integration of basic understanding of inland ecosystems with applied problems and their solutions should be of fundamental concern to all stakeholders in our freshwater resource. This is a basic element in creating an attractive and security ensured economic for investment in fisheries development, including aquaculture. This is the focus of this paper

Managing Nile perch using slot size: is it possible?

The fishery of Lake Victoria became a major commercial fishery with the introduction of Nile perch in 1950s and 1960s. Biological and population characteristics point to a fishery under intense fishing pressure attributed to increased capacity and use of illegal fishing gears. Studies conducted between 1998 to 2000 suggested capture of fish between slot size of 50 to 85 cm TL to sustain the fishery. Samples from Kenya and Uganda factories in 2008 showed that 50% and 71% of individuals processed were below the slot size respectively. This study revealed that fish below and above the slot has continued being caught and processed. This confirms that the slot size is hardly adhered to by both the fishers and the processors. The paper explores why the slot size has not been a successful tool in management of Nile perch and suggests strategies to sustain the fishery

Los fenómenos de marea roja y toxicidad de moluscos bivalvos en el Mar Argentino

Two unusual blooms of dinoflagellates appeared in the Argentine Continental Shelf in spring/summer period of 1980 and 1981, but these differed, one from the other. The first was an intense red-tide with which were associated no signs of toxicity, whereas the second, although; not showing special coloration, was associated with (and doubtless the cause of) intense toxicity in bivalves of the Gulfs of San Matías and San José and of the shelf waters off Península Valdés; the death of two fishermen was atributed to the latter. The first bloom developed as an unusual surface concentration of the predatory dinoflagellate Noctiluca scintillans. It was supposed that this concentration was produced by a particular combination of processes of circulation of water masses. The second bloom was characterizaed by high concentrations of Gonyalax excavata. Investigations at the time determined that toxins in molluscs of the area correasponded to what is called "paralytic shellfish poison". The bloom of G. excavata was associated with a front between well mixed and well stratified water masses. The maximum toxicity centre occured in the mussel bank "Constanza" (42°23'27"S and 62°45'66"W) which coincides with the front referred to above. (PDF contains 93 pages)