In search of climate effects on Atlantic Croaker (Micropogonias undulatus) stock off the U.S. Atlantic coast with Bayesian state-space biomass dynamic models

Atlantic Croaker (Micropogonias undulatus) production dynamics along the U.S. Atlantic coast are regulated by fishing and winter water temperature. Stakeholders for this resource have recommended investigating the effects of climate covariates in assessment models. This study used state-space biomass dynamic models without (model 1) and with (model 2) the minimum winter estuarine temperature (MWET) to examine MWET effects on Atlantic Croaker population dynamics during 1972–2008. In model 2, MWET was introduced into the intrinsic rate of population increase (r). For both models, a prior probability distribution (prior) was constructed for r or a scaling parameter (r0); imputs were the fishery removals, and fall biomass indices developed by using data from the Multispecies Bottom Trawl Survey of the Northeast Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, and the Coastal Trawl Survey of the Southeast Area Monitoring and Assessment Program. Model sensitivity runs incorporated a uniform (0.01,1.5) prior for r or r0 and bycatch data from the shrimp-trawl fishery. All model variants produced similar results and therefore supported the conclusion of low risk of overfishing for the Atlantic Croaker stock in the 2000s. However, the data statistically supported only model 1 and its configuration that included the shrimp-trawl fishery bycatch. The process errors of these models showed slightly positive and significant correlations with MWET, indicating that warmer winters would enhance Atlantic Croaker biomass production. Inconclusive, somewhat conflicting results indicate that biomass dynamic models should not integrate MWET, pending, perhaps, accumulation of longer time series of the variables controlling the production dynamics of Atlantic Croaker, preferably including winter-induced estimates of Atlantic Croaker kills.

Interactions of age-dependent mortality and selectivity functions in age-based stock assessment models

The natural mortality rate (M) of fish varies with size and age, although it is often assumed to be constant in stock assessments. Misspecification of M may bias important assessment quantities. We simulated fishery data, using an age-based population model, and then conducted stock assessments on the simulated data. Results were compared to known values. Misspecification of M had a negligible effect on the estimation of relative stock depletion; however, misspecification of M had a large effect on the estimation of parameters describing the stock recruitment relationship, age-specific selectivity, and catchability. If high M occurs in juvenile and old fish, but is misspecified in the assessment model, virgin biomass and catchability are often poorly estimated. In addition, stock recruitment relationships are often very difficult to estimate, and steepness values are commonly estimated at the upper bound (1.0) and overfishing limits tend to be biased low. Natural mortality can be estimated in assessment models if M is constant across ages or if selectivity is asymptotic. However if M is higher in old fish and selectivity is dome-shaped, M and the selectivity cannot both be adequately estimated because of strong interactions between M and selectivity.

Comparison of habitat-based indices of abundance with fishery-independent biomass estimates from bottom trawl surveys

Rockfish species are notoriously difficult to sample with multispecies bottom trawl survey methods. Typically, biomass estimates have high coefficients of variation and can fluctuate outside the bounds of biological reality from year to year. This variation may be due in part to their patchy distribution related to very specific habitat preferences. We successfully modeled the distribution of five commercially important and abundant rockf ish species. A two-stage modeling method (modeling both presence-absence and abundance) and a collection of important habitat variables were used to predict bottom trawl survey catch per unit of effort. The resulting models explained between 22% and 66% of the variation in rockfish distribution. The models were largely driven by depth, local slope, bottom temperature, abundance of coral and sponge, and measures of water column productivity (i.e., phytoplankton and zooplankton). A year-effect in the models was back-transformed and used as an index of the time series of abundance. The abundance index trajectories of three of five species were similar to the existing estimates of their biomass. In the majority of cases the habitat-based indices exhibited less interannual variability and similar precision when compared with stratified survey-based biomass estimates. These indices may provide for stock assessment models a more stable alternative to current biomass estimates produced by the multispecies bottom trawl survey in the Gulf of Alaska.

Prosomal-width-to-weight relationships in American horseshoe crabs (Limulus polyphemus): examining conversion factors used to estimate landings

Horseshoe crabs (Limulus polyphemus) are valued by many stakeholders, including the commercial fishing industry, biomedical companies, and environmental interest groups. We designed a study to test the accuracy of the conversion factors that were used by NOAA Fisheries and state agencies to estimate horseshoe crab landings before mandatory reporting that began in 1998. Our results indicate that the NOAA Fisheries conversion factor consistently overestimates the weight of male horseshoe crabs, particularly those from New England populations. Because of the inaccuracy of this and other conversion factors, states are now mandated to report the number (not biomass) and sex of landed horseshoe crabs. However, accurate estimates of biomass are still necessary for use in prediction models that are being developed to better manage the horseshoe crab fishery. We recommend that managers use the conversion factors presented in this study to convert current landing data from numbers to biomass of harvested horseshoe crabs for future assessments.

A reassessment of equations for predicting natural mortality in Mediterranean teleosts

This brief article presents new empirical models for prediction of natural mortality (M) from growth parameters (L and K, W and K) in Mediterranean teleosts, based on 56 data sets presented in an earlier paper in the January 1993 issue of Naga, the ICLARM Quarterly in which models were presented that included temperature as a predictor variable, although its effect was nonsignificant and its partial slope had the "wrong" sign.

Hydrologic variability related to El Nino in the Pacific Northwest [abstract]

A preliminary statistical analysis was undertaken to evaluate whether the effect of El Nino events is apparent in variables related to hydrologic behavior. Annual precipitation, temperature and streamflow were used for three locations in Oregon representing coastal, Willamette Valley/Cascade and eastern Oregon regions. The mean and variance for periods of El Nino occurrence vs. those with no El Nino were computed. Numerical differences were observed but were not consistent across all stations. The coastal area showed a decrease in mean precipitation and increase in mean streamflow during El Nino events. Other stations showed a positive increase in mean for both precipitation and streamflow for El Nino events. Variance of precipitation was greater in the coastal area but smaller in other areas and vice versa for streamflow during El Nino events. Statistical analyses indicated no significant differences of means, variances or distributions using nonparametric tests for El Nino vs. non-El Nino series.

Meteorological and hydrologic studies in the Alaskan Arctic in support of long-term ecological research

Long-term hydrologic studies in the Arctic simply do not exist. Although the Arctic has been identified as an area that is extremely sensitive to climate change, continuous scientific research has been limited to the past seven years. Earlier research was spotty, of short duration, and directed at only one or two hydrologic elements. Immediate future research needs to encompass all the major hydrologic elements, including winter processes, and needs to address the problem of scaling from small to larger areas in hydrologic models. Also, an international program of cooperation between northern countries is needed to build a greater scientific base for monitoring and identifying potential changes wrought by the climate.

Tag-reporting levels for red drum (Sciaenops ocellatus) caught by anglers in South Carolina and Georgia estuaries

A total of 1784 legal-size (≥356 mm TL) hatchery-produced red drum (Sciaenops ocellatus) were tagged and released to estimate tag-reporting levels of recreational anglers in South Carolina (SC) and Georgia (GA). Twelve groups of legal-size fish (~150 fish/group) were released. Half of the fish of each group were tagged with an external tag with the message “reward” and the other half of the fish were implanted with tags with the message “$100 reward.” These fish were released into two estuaries in each state (n=4); three replicate groups were released at different sites within each estuary (n=12). From results obtained in previous tag return experiments conducted by wildlife and fisheries biologists, it was hypothesized that reporting would be maximized at a reward level of $100/tag. Reporting level for the “reward” tags was estimated by dividing the number of “reward” tags returned by the number of “$100 reward” tags returned. The cumulative return level for both tag messages was 22.7 (±1.9)% in SC and 25.8 (±4.1)% in GA. These return levels were typical of those recorded by other red drum tagging programs in the region. Return data were partitioned according to verbal survey information obtained from anglers who reported tagged fish. Based on this partitioned data set, 14.3 (±2.1)% of “reward” tags were returned in SC, and 25.5 (±2.3)% of “$100 reward” tags were returned. This finding indicates that only 56.7% of the fish captured with “reward” tags were reported in SC. The pattern was similar for GA where 19.1 (±10.6)% of “reward” message tags were returned as compared with 30.1 (±15.6)% for “$100 reward” message tags. This difference yielded a reporting level of 63% for “reward” tags in GA. Currently, 50% is used as the estimate for the angler reporting level in population models for red drum and a number of other coastal finfish species in the South Atlantic region of the United States. Based on results of our study, the commonly used reporting estimate may result in an overestimate of angler exploitation for red drum.