Forecasting Climate Impacts on Future Production of Commercially Exploited Fish and Shellfish

Foreword [pdf, < 0.1 MB] Acknowledgements PHASE 1 [pdf, 0.2 MB] Summary of the PICES/NPRB Workshop on Forecasting Climate Impacts on Future Production of Commercially Exploited Fish and Shellfish (July 19–20, 2007, Seattle, U.S.A.) Background Links to Other Programs Workshop Format Session I. Status of climate change scenarios in the PICES region Session II. What are the expected impacts of climate change on regional oceanography and what are some scenarios for these drivers for the next 10 years? Session III. Recruitment forecasting Session IV. What models are out there? How is climate linked to the model? Session V. Assumptions regarding future fishing scenarios and enhancement activities Session VI Where do we go from here? References Appendix 1.1 List of Participants PHASE 2 [pdf, 0.7 MB] Summary of the PICES/NPRB Workshop on Forecasting Climate Impacts on Future Production of Commercially Exploited Fish and Shellfish (October 30, 2007, Victoria, Canada) Background Workshop Agenda Forecast Feasibility Format of Information Modeling Approaches Coupled bio-physical models Stock assessment projection models Comparative approaches Similarities in Data Requests Opportunities for Coordination with Other PICES Groups and International Efforts BACKGROUND REPORTS PREPARED FOR THE PHASE 2 WORKSHOP Northern California Current (U.S.) groundfish production by Melissa Haltuch Changes in sablefish (Anoplopoma fimbria) recruitment in relation to oceanographic conditions by Michael J. Schirripa Northern California Current (British Columbia) Pacific cod (Gadus macrocephalus) production by Caihong Fu and Richard Beamish Northern California Current (British Columbia) sablefish (Anoplopoma fimbria) production by Richard Beamish Northern California Current (British Columbia) pink (Oncorhynchus gorbuscha) and chum (O. keta) salmon production by Richard Beamish Northern California Current (British Columbia) ocean shrimp (Pandalus jordani) production by Caihong Fu Alaska salmon production by Anne Hollowed U.S. walleye pollock (Theragra chalcogramma) production in the eastern Bering Sea and Gulf of Alaska by Kevin Bailey and Anne Hollowed U.S. groundfish production in the eastern Bering Sea by Tom Wilderbuer U.S. crab production in the eastern Bering Sea by Gordon H. Kruse Forecasting Japanese commercially exploited species by Shin-ichi Ito, Kazuaki Tadokoro and Yasuhiro Yamanka Russian fish production in the Japan/East Sea by Yury Zuenko, Vladimir Nuzhdin and Natalia Dolganova Chum salmon (Oncorhynchus keta) production in Korea by Sukyung Kang, Suam Kim and Hyunju Seo Jack mackerel (Trachurus japonicus) production in Korea by Jae Bong Lee and Chang-Ik Zhang Chub mackerel (Scomber japonicus) production in Korea by Jae Bong Lee, Sukyung Kang, Suam Kim, Chang-Ik Zhang and Jin Yeong Kim References Appendix 2.1 List of Participants PHASE 3 [pdf, < 0.1 MB] Summary of the PICES Workshop on Linking Global Climate Model Output to (a) Trends in Commercial Species Productivity and (b) Changes in Broader Biological Communities in the World’s Oceans (May 18, 2008, Gijón, Spain) Appendix 3.1 List of Participants Appendix 3.2 Workshop Agenda (Document contains 101 pages)

Extreme events and ecological forecasting

Almost all extreme events lasting less than several weeks that significantly impact ecosystems are weather related. This review examines the response of estuarine systems to intense short-term perturbations caused by major weather events such as hurricanes. Current knowledge concerning these effects is limited to relatively few studies where hurricanes and storms impacted estuaries with established environmental monitoring programs. Freshwater inputs associated with these storms were found to initially result in increased primary productivity. When hydrographic conditions are favorable, bacterial consumption of organic matter produced by the phytoplankton blooms and deposited during the initial runoff event can contribute to significant oxygen deficits during subsequent warmer periods. Salinity stress and habitat destruction associated with freshwater inputs, as well as anoxia, adversely affect benthic populations and fish. In contrast, mobile invertebrate species such as shrimp, which have a short life cycle and the ability to migrate during the runoff event, initially benefit from the increased primary productivity and decreased abundance of fish predators. Events studied so far indicate that estuaries rebound in one to three years following major short-term perturbations. However, repeated storm events without sufficient recovery time may cause a fundamental shift in ecosystem structure (Scavia et al. 2002). This is a scenario consistent with the predicted increase in hurricanes for the east coast of the United States. More work on the response of individual species to these stresses is needed so management of commercial resources can be adjusted to allow sufficient recovery time for affected populations.

Ecological forecasting: new tools for coastal and marine ecosystem management

Policy makers, natural resource managers, regulators, and the public often call on scientists to estimate the potential ecological changes caused by both natural and human-induced stresses, and to determine how those changes will impact people and the environment. To develop accurate forecasts of ecological changes we need to: 1) increase understanding of ecosystem composition, structure, and functioning, 2) expand ecosystem monitoring and apply advanced scientific information to make these complex data widely available, and 3) develop and improve forecast and interpretative tools that use a scientific basis to assess the results of management and science policy actions. (PDF contains 120 pages)

Nutrient dynamics of seasonal tanks in the dry zone of Sri Lanka in relation to their hydrological regimes

Village tanks are put to a wide range of uses by the rural communities that depend on them for their survival. As the primacy of irrigation has decreased under these tanks due to a variety of climatic and economic reasons there is a need to reevaluate their use for other productive functions. The research presented in this paper is part of a programme investigating the potential to improve the management of living aquatic resources in order to bring benefits to the most marginal groups identified in upper watershed areas. Based on an improved typology of seasonal tanks, the seasonal changes and dynamics of various water quality parameters indicative of nutrient status and fisheries carrying capacity are compared over a period of one year. Indicators of Net (Primary) Productivity (NP): Rates of Dissolved Oxygen (DO) change, Total Suspended Solids (TSS): Total Suspended Volatile solids (TVSS) ratios are the parameters of principle interest. Based on these results a comparative analysis is made on two classes of ‘seasonal’ and ‘semi-seasonal’ tanks. Results indicate a broad correlation in each of these parameters with seasonal trends in tank hydrology. Highest productivity levels are associated with periods of declining water storage, whilst the lowest levels are associated with the periods of maximum water storage shortly after the NW monsoon. This variation is primarily attributed to dilution effects associated with depth and storage area. During the yala period, encroachment of the surface layer by several species of aquatic macrophyte also has progressively negative impacts on productivity. The most seasonal tanks show wider extremes in seasonal nutrient dynamics, overall, with less favourable conditions than the ‘semi-seasonal’ tanks. Never the less all the tanks can be considered as being highly productive with NP levels comparable to fertilised pond systems for much of the year. This indicates that nutrient status is not likely to be amongst the most important constraints to enhancing fish production. Other potential management improvements based on these results are discussed. [PDF contains 19 pages]

Climate-related hydrological regimes and their effects on abundance of juvenile blue crabs (Callinectes sapidus) in the northcentral Gulf of Mexico

The abundance of juvenile blue crabs (Callinectes sapidus) in the northcentral Gulf of Mexico was investigated in response to climate-related hydrological regimes. Two distinct periods of blue crab abundance (1, 1973–94 and 2, 1997–2005) were associated with two opposite climaterelated hydrological regimes. Period 1 was characterized by high numbers of crabs, whereas period 2 was characterized by low numbers of crabs. The cold phase of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and high north-south wind momentum were associated with period 1. Hydrological conditions associated with phases of the AMO and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) in conjunction with the north-south wind momentum may favor blue crab productivity by influencing blue crab predation dynamics through the exclusion of predators. About 25% (22–28%) of the variability in blue crab abundance was explained by a north–south wind momentum in concert with either salinity, precipitation, or the Palmer drought severity index, or by a combination of the NAO and precip

The Atlantic and Gulf Menhaden Purse Seine Fisheries: Origins, Harvesting Technologies, Biostatistical Monitoring, Recent Trends in Fisheries Statistics, and Forecasting

With its genesis in New England during the 1800's, the purse seine fishery for Atlantic menhaden, Brevoortia tyrannus, expanded south and by the early 1900's ranged the length of the eastern seaboard. The purse seine fishery for Gulf menhaden. B. patronus, is of relatively recent development, exploitation of the stock beginning in the late 1940's. Landings from both fisheries annually comprise 35-40% of the total U. S. fisheries landings, ranking menhaden first in terms of volume landed. Technological advances in harvesting methods, fish-spotting capabilities, and vessel designs accelerated after World War II, resulting in larger, faster, and wider-ranging carrier vessels, improved speed and efficiency of the harvest, and reduction in labor requirements. Chief products of the menhaden industry are fish meal, fish oil, and solubles, but research into new product lines is underway. Since 1955 on the Atlantic coast and 1964 on the Gulf coast, the NMFS has monitored the fisheries for biostatistical data. Annual data summaries of numbers-of-fish-at-age harvested, catch tonnage, and fishing effort of the fleet form the basis of routine stock assessments and annual catch forecasts to industry for the upcoming fishing season. After landings declined in the 1960's, the Atlantic menhaden stock has recovered through the 1970's and 1980's. Exceptional year classes of Gulf menhaden in recent years account for record landings during the 1980's.

A hydrological assessment of the Delamere Sandsheets and environs

This is the technical report of a hydrogeological assessment of the Delamere sandsheet and environments by the Environment Agency. The overall objective of the study is to carry out Stage 3-appropriate assessment, under the EU Habitats Directive (92/43/EEC), of the influence of activities permitted by the Agency relating to groundwater on candidate Special Areas of Conservation (cSAC). The geology of Delamere area, based on published and collected information is described in Section2. Groundwater flow and water quality are described in Section 3, including sections on groundwater levels, aquifer properties, groundwater discharge and hydrogeochemisty. A water balance for the sandsheet for the period 2001-2002 is presented in Section 4, and the hydrogeological conceptual model of the area is described in Section 5. The assessment of the possible impacts of Agency-permitted groundwater abstractions on Oakmere and Abbots Moss is presented in Section 6 whilst conclusions and recommendations are given in Section 7.

Report of the special session of "Chesapeake Bay Ecological Forecasting: Moving Ecosystem Modeling from Research to Operation" of the 2010 Chesapeake Modeling Symposium

Moving ecosystem modeling from research to applications and operations has direct management relevance and will be integral to achieving the water quality and living resource goals of the 2010 Chesapeake Bay Executive Order. Yet despite decades of ecosystem modeling efforts of linking climate to water quality, plankton and fish, ecological models are rarely taken to the operational phase. In an effort to promote operational ecosystem modeling and ecological forecasting in Chesapeake Bay, a meeting was convened on this topic at the 2010 Chesapeake Modeling Symposium (May, 10-11). These presentations show that tremendous progress has been made over the last five years toward the development of operational ecological forecasting models, and that efforts in Chesapeake Bay are leading the way nationally. Ecological forecasts predict the impacts of chemical, biological, and physical changes on ecosystems, ecosystem components, and people. They have great potential to educate and inform not only ecosystem management, but also the outlook and opinion of the general public, for whom we manage coastal ecosystems. In the context of the Chesapeake Bay Executive Order, ecological forecasting can be used to identify favorable restoration sites, predict which sites and species will be viable under various climate scenarios, and predict the impact of a restoration project on water quality.

Hydrological studies of Matatilla Reservoir, Uttar Pradesh

Matatilla Reservoir, located in semi arid region, (Lat. 25 degree 15'N and Long. 78 degree 23'E) has an area (at FRL) of 13,893 ha, volume and shore development 0.663 and 1.65, shoreline 73.6 km. Volume and shore development indicate that greater part of the reservoir is shallow, which is a favourable point for fish productivity. Temperature and dissolved oxygen gradually decreased with the increase in depth. Carbon dioxide was absent from the surface but invariably present in the bottom (3.6 ppm) pH remained alkaline (7.2-8.4 ppm) throughout the year. Alkalinity, chloride, calcium, magnesium, hardness and priductivity was maximum in pre-monsoon and minimum in monsoon except for calcium and manganesium in post-monsoon. Phosphate, nitrogen and ammonical nitrogen were found in traces. These variations may be due to influx and outflow of water and use of reservoir water for multipurpose activities.

Studies on the phytoplankton of inshore and offshore waters off Colombo and some data on the hydrological conditions of these waters

The present paper gives a comparative account of the hydrological conditions and phytoplankton within the Continental Shelf and beyond the Continental Shelf. 54 water samples were taken for hydrological analysis and 18 surface tows for plankton.

Effect of thermal pollution on the hydrological parameters of River Jhelum (J & K)

The Buniyar hydroelectric project and the lower Jhelum Barrier at Gantamulla constructed across river Jhelum are in operation from several years. The two power stations have changed the hydrological features of the area where dam is situated. Therefore, the impact of hydroelectric projects on fishery resources of river Jhelum is a matter of great concern. The treated water from the power house is released through turbines, having cooling effect on them. The change in the hydrological parameters such as increase in temperature, depletion of oxygen etc. might have brought fishes under stress which is the main cause in decreased population of finfishes from site to site. The golden mahseer, Tor putitora which was once an abundant species in river Jhelum has disappeared due to human intervention. The prevailing water quality around hydroelectric projects is unsuitable for finfishes of river Jhelum.

Water budgeting studies on the hatchery and nursery rearing practices for the common carp, Cyprinus carpio (Linnaeus, 1758)

Aquaculture systems are an integral element of rural development and therefore should be environment friendly as well as socially and economically designed. From the economic standpoint, one of the major constraints for the development of sustainable aquaculture includes externalities generated by competition in access to a limited resource. This study was conducted as an investigation into the water requirement for the hatchery and nursery production phases of common carp, Cyprinus carpio (Linnaeus, 1758) at the Maharashtra State Fish Seed Farm at Khopoli in Raigad Dist. of Maharashtra during the winter months from November to February. The water budgeting study involves the quantification of water used in every stage of production in hatchery and nursery systems and aimed at becoming a foundation for the minimization of water during production without affecting the yield; thereby conserving water and upholding the theme of sustainable aquaculture. The total water used in a single operation cycle was estimated to be 11,25,040 L [sic]. Out of the total water consumed, 4.74% water was used in the pre-operational management steps, 4.48% was consumed during breeding, 62.72% was consumed in the hatching phase, 21.50% was used for hatchery rearing and 6.56% was consumed during conditioning. In the nursery ponds, the water gain was primarily the regulated inflow coming through the irrigation channel. The total quantum of water used in the nursery rearing was 31,60,800 L [sic]. The initial filling and regulated inflow formed 42.60% and 57.40% respectively of water gain, while evaporation, seepage and discharge contributed 20.71%, 36.46% and 42.82% respectively to the water loss. The total water expended for the entire operation was 1,21,61,120 L [sic]. Water expense occurred to produce a single spawn in the hatchery system was calculated and found to be 0.56 L while the water expended to produce one fry was calculated as 4.86 L. The study fulfills the hydrological equation described by Winter (1981) and Boyd (1985). It also validates the water budget simulation model that can be used for forecasting water requirements for aquaculture ponds (Nath and Bolte, 1998).