13 resultados para Hybrid linear model

em Aquatic Commons


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These simulations are focused on the sensitivity of the barotropic ocean non-linear model to the various open boundary conditions (OBCs). Different OBCs from gradient to radiation condition are examined to determine the best result and help to choose the most appropriate OBCs. Since the interior points are changing with time both implicit and explicit forms are applied. The simulations showed that the interior flow is sensitive to changes in the OBCs and the results are highly dependent on the bathymetry of the area. When a constant depth (100m) is used, the circulation pattern with all OBCs is same. The best boundary conditions are Orlanski Radiation and its modified form. These boundary conditions produce identical adjustment in velocity and are determined to be satisfactory for both constant depth and actual bathymetry.

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ENGLISH: Estimates of relative annual abundance of yellowfin tuna in the eastern Pacific Ocean during 1970-1985 are made using catch rates, measured as tons caught by purse seiners per hour of searching. Catch rates are standardized a weighted generalized linear model. The important standardizing factors are vessel speed, season-area, and whether the yellowfin were caught in association with dolphins, skipjack tuna, or floating objects. Observations are weighted to give equal areas equal weight and to give each unit of fishing effort equal weight within an area. The results indicate that catch per days fishing underestimates abundance during the late 1970's when the fishery shifted some of its effort from dolphin sets to floating object sets, and overestimates abundance when the fishery shifted back to dolphin sets in 1984 and 1985. SPANISH: Se estima la abundancia anual relativa del atún aleta amarilla en el Océano Pacífico oriental (OPO) durante 1970-1985 por medio de tasas de captura, calculadas como toneladas cortas capturadas por barcos cerqueros por hora de búsqueda. Se usa un modelo lineal ponderado generalizado para estandardizar las tasas de captura. Los factores importantes de estandardización son la velocidad del barco, temporada-área, y si se capturaron los aletas amarillas en asociación con delfines, barriletes, o objetos flotantes. Se ponderaron las observaciones para otorgar igual importancia a áreas iguales y a cada unidad de esfuerzo pesquero dentro de un área. Los resultados señalan que la captura por día de pesca estima por bajo la abundancia durante los últimos años de la década de los 70, en cual época la pesquería trasladó parte de su esfuerzo de lances sobre delfines a lances sobre objetos flotantes, y la sobreestima al volver la pesquería a lances sobre delfines en 1984 y 1985. (PDF contains 45 pages.)

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ENGLISH: We analyzed catches per unit of effort (CPUE) from the Japanese longline fishery for bigeye tuna (Thunnus obesus) in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean (EPO) with regression tree methods. Regression trees have not previously been used to estimate time series of abundance indices fronl CPUE data. The "optimally sized" tree had 139 parameters; year, month, latitude, and longitude interacted to affect bigeye CPUE. The trend in tree-based abundance indices for the EPO was similar to trends estimated from a generalized linear model and fronl an empirical model that combines oceanographic data with information on the distribution of fish relative to environmental conditions. The regression tree was more parsimonious and would be easier to implement than the other two nl0dels, but the tree provided no information about the nlechanisms that caused bigeye CPUEs to vary in time and space. Bigeye CPUEs increased sharply during the mid-1980's and were more variable at the northern and southern edges of the fishing grounds. Both of these results can be explained by changes in actual abundance and changes in catchability. Results from a regression tree that was fitted to a subset of the data indicated that, in the EPO, bigeye are about equally catchable with regular and deep longlines. This is not consistent with observations that bigeye are more abundant at depth and indicates that classification by gear type (regular or deep longline) may not provide a good measure of capture depth. Asimulated annealing algorithm was used to summarize the tree-based results by partitioning the fishing grounds into regions where trends in bigeye CPUE were similar. Simulated annealing can be useful for designing spatial strata in future sampling programs. SPANISH: Analizamos la captura por unidad de esfuerzo (CPUE) de la pesquería palangrera japonesa de atún patudo (Thunnus obesus) en el Océano Pacifico oriental (OPO) y central con métodos de árbol de regresión. Hasta ahora no se han usado árboles de regresión para estimar series de tiempo de índices de abundancia a partir de datos de CPUE. EI árbol de "tamaño optimo" tuvo 139 parámetros; ano, mes, latitud, y longitud interactuaron para afectar la CPUE de patudo. La tendencia en los índices de abundancia basados en árboles para el OPO fue similar a las tendencias estimadas con un modelo lineal generalizado y con un modelo empírico que combina datos oceanográficos con información sobre la distribución de los peces en relación con las condiciones ambientales. EI árbol de regresión fue mas parsimonioso y seria mas fácil de utilizar que los dos otros modelos, pero no proporciono información sobre los mecanismos que causaron que las CPUE de patudo valiaran en el tiempo y en el espacio. Las CPUE de patudo aumentaron notablemente a mediados de los anos 80 y fueron mas variables en los extremos norte y sur de la zona de pesca. Estos dos resultados pueden ser explicados por cambios en la abundancia real y cambios en la capturabilidad. Los resultados de un arbal de regresión ajustado a un subconjunto de los datos indican que, en el OPO, el patudo es igualmente capturable con palangres regulares y profundos. Esto no es consistente con observaciones de que el patudo abunda mas a profundidad e indica que clasificación por tipo de arte (palangre regular 0 profundo) podría no ser una buena medida de la profundidad de captura. Se uso un algoritmo de templado simulado para resumir los resultados basados en el árbol clasificando las zonas de pesca en zonas con tendencias similares en la CPUE de patudo. El templado simulado podría ser útil para diseñar estratos espaciales en programas futuros de muestreo. (PDF contains 45 pages.)

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Growth is one of the most important characteristics of cultured species. The objective of this study was to determine the fitness of linear, log linear, polynomial, exponential and Logistic functions to the growth curves of Macrobrachium rosenbergii obtained by using weekly records of live weight, total length, head length, claw length, and last segment length from 20 to 192 days of age. The models were evaluated according to the coefficient of determination (R2), and error sum off square (ESS) and helps in formulating breeders in selective breeding programs. Twenty full-sib families consisting 400 PLs each were stocked in 20 different hapas and reared till 8 weeks after which a total of 1200 animals were transferred to earthen ponds and reared up to 192 days. The R2 values of the models ranged from 56 – 96 in case of overall body weight with logistic model being the highest. The R2 value for total length ranged from 62 to 90 with logistic model being the highest. In case of head length, the R2 value ranged between 55 and 95 with logistic model being the highest. The R2 value for claw length ranged from 44 to 94 with logistic model being the highest. For last segment length, R2 value ranged from 55 – 80 with polynomial model being the highest. However, the log linear model registered low ESS value followed by linear model for overall body weight while exponential model showed low ESS value followed by log linear model in case of head length. For total length the low ESS value was given by log linear model followed by logistic model and for claw length exponential model showed low ESS value followed by log linear model. In case of last segment length, linear model showed lowest ESS value followed by log linear model. Since, the model that shows highest R2 value with low ESS value is generally considered as the best fit model. Among the five models tested, logistic model, log linear model and linear models were found to be the best models for overall body weight, total length and head length respectively. For claw length and last segment length, log linear model was found to be the best model. These models can be used to predict growth rates in M. rosenbergii. However, further studies need to be conducted with more growth traits taken into consideration

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Trawling was conducted in the Charleston, South Carolina, shipping channel between May and August during 2004–07 to evaluate loggerhead sea turtle (Caretta caretta) catch rates and demographic distributions. Two hundred and twenty individual loggerheads were captured in 432 trawling events during eight sampling periods lasting 2–10 days each. Catch was analyzed by using a generalized linear model. Data were fitted to a negative binomial distribution with the log of standardized sampling effort (i.e., an hour of sampling with a net head rope length standardized to 30.5 m) for each event treated as an offset term. Among 21 variables, factors, and interactions, five terms were significant in the final model, which accounted for 45% of model deviance. Highly significant differences in catch were noted among sampling periods and sampling locations within the channel, with greatest catch furthest seaward consistent with historical observations. Loggerhead sea turtle catch rates in 2004–07 were greater than in 1991–92 when mandatory use of turtle excluder devices was beginning to be phased in. Concurrent with increased catch rates, loggerheads captured in 2004–07 were larger than in 1991–92. Eighty-five percent of loggerheads captured were ≤75.0 cm straight-line carapace length (nuchal notch to tip of carapace) and there was a 3.9:1 female-to-male bias, consistent with limited data for this location two decades earlier. Only juvenile loggerheads ≤75.0 cm possessed haplotypes other than CC-A01 or CC-A02 that dominate in the region. Six rare and one un-described haplotype were predominantly found in June 2004.

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We evaluated habitat quality for juvenile California halibut (Paralichthys californicus) in a Pacific Coast estuary lacking in strong salinity gradients by examining density, recent otolith growth rates, and gut fullness levels of wild-caught and caged juveniles for one year. Juveniles <200 mm standard length were caught consistently in the inner, central, and outer sections of the estuary. The density of juveniles was two times higher in the inner estuary during most of the year, consistent with active habitat selection by part of the population. A generalized linear model indicated temperature, sampling time, and the interaction between salinity and temperature were significantly related to density. However, the model explained only 21% of the variance. Gut fullness levels of wild-caught juveniles were highest during the summer, but recent otolith growth rates were not related to temperature. The proportion of individuals feeding successfully indicated that seasonal differences in food availability are more important than spatial variation in prey abundance in driving feeding success. Feeding success of caged fishes was limited, precluding the use of growth rates as indicators of local habitat quality. However, marginal increment widths were reliable indicators of somatic growth at low growth rates over two-week periods. The relatively high growth rates and abundance of small wild-caught juveniles found throughout the estuary indicates that the entire estuary system has the potential for serving as nursery habitat.

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Cod captured by commercial fi shery in the Bornholm Basin in quarter 2 of 2001 were not suitable for the mechanical processing due to low condition and weight. The absolute mean weight of cod captured by the commercial fishery in the Arkona Sea and Bornholm Basin in the same quarter during the last fi ve years was studied to describe its development. The results of a GLM (Generalized Linear Model) analysis showed similar development of body weight in the Bornholm Basin and in the Arkona Sea between 2007 and 2011. The mean weight of cod in the Bornholm Basin increased from 2007 to 2008 in both areas followed by a relative stable weight until 2009 and a decrease until 2011. In the Arkona Sea the mean weight of cod 2009 has decreased in comparison to 2008, then have increased 2010 slightly and last have decreased in 2011. The analyses showed that the weight of cod is signifi cantly infl uenced by length, age and maturity of individuals.

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Weight-on-length (W-L) relationships for 2,482 dolphinfish, Coryphaena hippurus, and 1,161 wahoo, Acanthocybium solandri, were examined. Data on fork length, whole (round) weight, and sex were collected for dolphinfish at the Honolulu fish auction from March 1988 through November 1989. Unsexed weight and length data for wahoo were collected at the auction from July 1988 through November 1989. We also used sex specific weight and length data of 171 wahoo collected during 1977–1985 research cruises for analysis. Coefficients of W-L regressions were significantly different between the sexes for dolphinfish. Coefficients did not significantly differ between the sexes for wahoo based on research cruise data. In a general linear model evaluating month as a categorical factor, month was significant for female dolphinfish, male dolphinfish, and wahoo with sexes pooled. W-L and length-on-weight (L-W) relationships were fitted by nonlinear regression for all dolphinfish, female dolphinfish, male dolphinfish, and all wahoo sexes pooled. W-L relationships for monthly samples of female dolphinfish, male dolphinfish, and all wahoo with sexes pooled were also fitted by nonlinear regression. Predicted mean weight at length for wahoo was highest at the beginning of the spawning season in June and lowest after the spawning season in September. Maximum and minimum predicted mean weight at length for both sexes of dolphinfish did not correspond with the peak spawning period (March–May). Plausible migration models in conjunction with reproductive behavior were examined to explain the variability in monthly predicted mean weight at length for dolphinfish.

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Seasonal trawling was conducted randomly in coastal (depths of 4.6–17 m) waters from St. Augustine, Florida, (29.9°N) to Winyah Bay, South Carolina (33.1°N), during 2000–03, 2008–09, and 2011 to assess annual trends in the relative abundance of sea turtles. A total of 1262 loggerhead sea turtles (Caretta caretta) were captured in 23% (951) of 4207 sampling events. Capture rates (overall and among prevalent 5-cm size classes) were analyzed through the use of a generalized linear model with log link function for the 4097 events that had complete observations for all 25 model parameters. Final models explained 6.6% (70.1–75.0 cm minimum straight-line carapace length [SCLmin]) to 14.9% (75.1–80.0 cm SCLmin) of deviance in the data set. Sampling year, geographic subregion, and distance from shore were retained as significant terms in all final models, and these terms collectively accounted for 6.2% of overall model deviance (range: 4.5–11.7% of variance among 5-cm size classes). We retained 18 parameters only in a subset of final models: 4 as exclusively significant terms, 5 as a mixture of significant or nonsignificant terms, and 9 as exclusively nonsignificant terms. Four parameters also were dropped completely from all final models. The generalized linear model proved appropriate for monitoring trends for this data set that was laden with zero values for catches and was compiled for a globally protected species. Because we could not account for much model deviance, metrics other than those examined in our study may better explain catch variability and, once elucidated, their inclusion in the generalized linear model should improve model fits.

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Jumbo squid (Dosidicus gigas) and purpleback squid (Sthenoteuthis oualaniensis) (Teuthida: Ommastrephidae) are thought to spawn in the eastern tropical Pacific. We used 10 years of plankton tow and oceanographic data collected in this region to examine the reproductive habits of these 2 ecologically important squid. Paralarvae of jumbo squid and purpleback squid were found in 781 of 1438 plankton samples from surface and oblique tows conducted by the Southwest Fisheries Science Center (NOAA) in the eastern tropical Pacific over the 8-year period of 1998–2006. Paralarvae were far more abundant in surface tows (maximum: 1588 individuals) than in oblique tows (maximum: 64 individuals). A generalized linear model analysis revealed sea-surface temperature as the strongest environmental predictor of paralarval presence in both surface and oblique tows; the likelihood of paralarval presence increases with increasing temperature. We used molecular techniques to identify paralarvae from 37 oblique tows to species level and found that the purpleback squid was more abundant than the jumbo squid (81 versus 16 individuals).

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In May 2001, the National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS) opened two areas in the northwestern Atlantic Ocean that had been previously closed to the U.S. sea scallop (Placopecten magellanicus) dredge fishery. Upon reopening these areas, termed the “Hudson Canyon Controlled Access Area” and the “Virginia Beach Controlled Access Area,” NMFS observers found that marine turtles were being caught incidentally in scallop dredges. This study uses the generalized linear model and the generalized additive model fitting techniques to identify environmental factors and gear characteristics that influence bycatch rates, and to predict total bycatch in these two areas during May-December 2001 and 2002 by incorporating environmental factors into the models. Significant factors affecting sea turtle bycatch were season, time-of-day, sea surface temperature, and depth zone. In estimating total bycatch, rates were stratified according to a combination of all these factors except time-of-day which was not available in fishing logbooks. Highest bycatch rates occurred during the summer season, in temperatures greater than 19°C, and in water depths from 49 to 57 m. Total estimated bycatch of sea turtles during May–December in 2001 and 2002 in both areas combined was 169 animals (CV=55.3), of which 164 (97%) animals were caught in the Hudson Canyon area. From these findings, it may be possible to predict hot spots for sea turtle bycatch in future years in the controlled access areas.

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Fecundity (F, number of brooded eggs) and egg size were estimated for Hawaiian spiny lobster (Panulirus marginatus) at Necker Bank, North-western Hawaiian Islands (NWHI), in June 1999, and compared with previous (1978–81, 1991) estimates. Fecundity in 1999 was best described by the power equations F = 7.995 CL 2.4017, where CL is carapace length in mm (r2=0.900), and F = 5.174 TW 2.758, where TW is tail width in mm (r2=0.889) (both n=40; P< 0.001). Based on a log-linear model ANCOVA, size-specific fecundity in 1999 was 18% greater than in 1991, which in turn was 16% greater than during 1978–81. The additional increase in size-specific fecundity observed in 1999 is interpreted as evidence for further compensatory response to decreased lobster densities and increased per capita food resources that have resulted either from natural cyclic declines in productivity, high levels of harvest by the commercial lobster trap fishery, or both.