Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States: a state of knowledge report from the U.S. Global Change Research Program

Executive Summary: Observations show that warming of the climate is unequivocal. The global warming observed over the past 50 years is due primarily to human-induced emissions of heat-trapping gases. These emissions come mainly from the burning of fossil fuels (coal, oil, and gas), with important contributions from the clearing of forests, agricultural practices, and other activities. Warming over this century is projected to be considerably greater than over the last century. The global average temperature since 1900 has risen by about 1.5ºF. By 2100, it is projected to rise another 2 to 11.5ºF. The U.S. average temperature has risen by a comparable amount and is very likely to rise more than the global average over this century, with some variation from place to place. Several factors will determine future temperature increases. Increases at the lower end of this range are more likely if global heat-trapping gas emissions are cut substantially. If emissions continue to rise at or near current rates, temperature increases are more likely to be near the upper end of the range. Volcanic eruptions or other natural variations could temporarily counteract some of the human-induced warming, slowing the rise in global temperature, but these effects would only last a few years. Reducing emissions of carbon dioxide would lessen warming over this century and beyond. Sizable early cuts in emissions would significantly reduce the pace and the overall amount of climate change. Earlier cuts in emissions would have a greater effect in reducing climate change than comparable reductions made later. In addition, reducing emissions of some shorter-lived heat-trapping gases, such as methane, and some types of particles, such as soot, would begin to reduce warming within weeks to decades. Climate-related changes have already been observed globally and in the United States. These include increases in air and water temperatures, reduced frost days, increased frequency and intensity of heavy downpours, a rise in sea level, and reduced snow cover, glaciers, permafrost, and sea ice. A longer ice-free period on lakes and rivers, lengthening of the growing season, and increased water vapor in the atmosphere have also been observed. Over the past 30 years, temperatures have risen faster in winter than in any other season, with average winter temperatures in the Midwest and northern Great Plains increasing more than 7ºF. Some of the changes have been faster than previous assessments had suggested. These climate-related changes are expected to continue while new ones develop. Likely future changes for the United States and surrounding coastal waters include more intense hurricanes with related increases in wind, rain, and storm surges (but not necessarily an increase in the number of these storms that make landfall), as well as drier conditions in the Southwest and Caribbean. These changes will affect human health, water supply, agriculture, coastal areas, and many other aspects of society and the natural environment. This report synthesizes information from a wide variety of scientific assessments (see page 7) and recently published research to summarize what is known about the observed and projected consequences of climate change on the United States. It combines analysis of impacts on various sectors such as energy, water, and transportation at the national level with an assessment of key impacts on specific regions of the United States. For example, sea-level rise will increase risks of erosion, storm surge damage, and flooding for coastal communities, especially in the Southeast and parts of Alaska. Reduced snowpack and earlier snow melt will alter the timing and amount of water supplies, posing significant challenges for water resource management in the West. (PDF contains 196 pages)

Protocols for conducting dolphin capture-release health assessment studies

Marine mammals, such as dolphins, can serve as key indicator species in coastal areas by reflecting the effects of natural and anthropogenic stressors. As such they are often considered sentinels of environmental and ecosystem health (Bossart 2006; Wells et al. 2004; Fair and Becker 2000). The bottlenose dolphin is an apex predator and a key component of many estuarine environments in the southeastern United States (Woodward-Clyde Consultants 1994; SCDNR 2005). Health assessments of dolphins are especially critical in areas where populations are depleted, show signs of epidemic disease and/or high mortality and/or where habitat is being altered or impacted by human activities. Recent assessments of environmental conditions in the Indian River Lagoon, Florida (IRL) and the estuarine waters surrounding Charleston, South Carolina (CHS) highlight the need for studies of the health of local bottlenose dolphins. While the condition of southeastern estuaries was rated as fair in the National Coastal Condition Report (U.S. EPA 2001), it was noted that the IRL was characterized by poorer than expected benthic communities, significant sediment toxicity and increased nutrient concentrations. Similarly, portions of the CHS estuary have sediment concentrations of aliphatic aromatic hydrocarbons, select inorganic metals, and some persistent pesticides far in excess of reported bioeffect levels (Hyland et al. 1998). Long-term trends in water quality monitoring and recent scientific research suggest that waste load assimilation, non-point source runoff impacts, contaminated sediments, and toxic pollutants are key issues in the CHS estuary system. Several ‘hot spots’ with high levels of heavy metals and organic compounds have been identified (Van Dolah et al. 2004). High concentrations of anthropogenic trace metals, polychlorinated biphenyls (PCB’s) and pesticides have been found in the sediments of Charleston Harbor, as well as the Ashley and Cooper Rivers (Long et al. 1998). Two superfund sites are located within the CHS estuary and the key contaminants of concern associated with these sites are: polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH), lead, chromium, copper, arsenic, zinc and dioxin. Concerns related to the overall health of IRL dolphins and dermatologic disease observed in many dolphins in the area (Bossart et al. 2003) initiated an investigation of potential factors which may have impacted dolphin health. From May-August 2001, 35 bottlenose dolphins died in the IRL during an unusual mortality event (MMC 2003). Many of these dolphins were diagnosed with a variety of skin lesions including proliferative ulcerative dermatitis due to protozoa and fungi, dolphin pox and a vesicular dermatopathy of unknown etiology (Bossart et al. 2003). Multiple species from fish to dolphins in the IRL system have exhibited skin lesions of various known and unknown etiologies (Kane et al. 2000; Bossart et al. 2003; Reif et al. 2006). On-going photo-identification (photo-ID) studies have documented skin diseases in IRL dolphins (Mazzoil et al. 2005). In addition, up to 70% of green sea turtles in the IRL exhibit fibropapillomas, with the highest rates of occurrence being seen in turtles from the southern IRL (Hirama 2001).

Guidelines for the conservation and restoration of seagrasses in the United States and adjacent waters

Seagrass ecosystems are protected under the federal "no-net-loss" policy for wetlands and form one of the most productive plant communities on the planet, performing important ecological functions. Seagrass beds have been recognized as a valuable resource critical to the health and function of coastal waters. Greater awareness and public education, however, is essential for conservation of this resource. Tremendous losses of this habitat have occurred as a result of development within the coastal zone. Disturbances usually kill seagrasses rapidly, and recovery is often comparatively slow. Mitigation to compensate for destruction of existing habitat usually follows when the agent of loss and responsible party are known. Compensation assumes that ecosystems can be made to order and, in essence, trades existing functional habitat for the promise of replacement habitat. While ~lant ingse agrass is not technically complex, there is no easy way to meet the goal of maintaining or increasing seagrass acreage. Rather, the entire process of planning, planting and monitoring requires attention to detail and does not lend itself to oversimplification.

Synthesis of marine ecosystem monitoring activities for the United States Virgin Islands: 1990-2009

The ecological integrity of coral reef ecosystems in the U.S. Caribbean is widely considered to have deteriorated in the last three decades due to a range of threats and stressors from both human and non-human processes Rothenberger 2008, Wilkinson 2008). In response to the threats to Caribbean coral reef ecosystems and other regions around the world, the United States Government authorized the Coral Reef Conservation Act of 2000 to: (1) preserve, sustain, and restore the condition of coral reef ecosystems; (2) promote the wise management and sustainable use of coral reef ecosystems to benefit local communities and the Nation; and (3) develop sound scientific information on the condition of coral reef ecosystems and the threats to such ecosystems. The Act also resulted in the formation of a National Coral Reef Action Strategy and a Coral Reef Conservation Program. The Action Strategy (Goal 2 of Action Theme 1) outlined the importance of monitoring and assessing coral reef health as a mechanism toward reducing many threats to these ecosystems. Monitoring was considered of high importance in addressing impacts from climate change; disease; overfishing; destructive fishing practices; habitat destruction; invasive species; coastal development; coastal pollution; sedimentation/runoff and overuse from tourism. The strategy states that successful coral reef ecosystem conservation requires adaptive management that responds quickly to changing environmental conditions. This, in turn, depends on monitoring programs that track trends in coral reef ecosystem health and reveal patterns in their condition before irreparable harm occurs. As such, monitoring plays a vital role in guiding and supporting the establishment of complex or potentially controversial management strategies such as no-take ecological reserves, fishing gear restrictions, or habitat restoration, by documenting the impacts of gaps in existing management schemes and illustrating the effectiveness of new measures over time. Long-term monitoring is also required to determine the effectiveness of various management strategies to conserve and enhance coral reef ecosystems.

Gulf of Mexico tidal creeks serve as sentinel habitats for assessing the impact of coastal development on ecosystem health

A study was conducted, in association with the Alabama and Mississippi National Estuarine Research Reserves (NERRs) in the Gulf of Mexico (GoM) as well as the Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina NERRs in the Southeast (SE), to evaluate the impacts of coastal development on tidal creek sentinel habitats, including potential impacts to human health and well-being. Uplands associated with Southeast and Gulf of Mexico tidal creeks, and the salt marshes they drain, are popular locations for building homes, resorts, and recreational facilities because of the high quality of life and mild climate associated with these environments. Tidal creeks form part of the estuarine ecosystem characterized by high biological productivity, great ecological value, complex environmental gradients, and numerous interconnected processes. This research combined a watershed-level study integrating ecological, public health and human dimension attributes with watershed-level land cover data. The approach used for this research was based upon a comparative watershed and ecosystem approach that sampled tidal creek networks draining developed watersheds (e.g., suburban, urban, and industrial) as well as undeveloped sites (Holland et al. 2004, Sanger et al. 2008). The primary objective of this work was to define the relationships between coastal development with its concomitant land cover changes, and non-point source pollution loading and the ecological and human health and wellbeing status of tidal creek ecosystems. Nineteen tidal creek systems, located along the Southeastern United States coast from southern North Carolina to southern Georgia, and five Gulf of Mexico systems from Alabama and Mississippi were sampled during summer (June-August) 2005, 2006 (SE) and 2008 (GoM). Within each system, creeks were divided into two primary segments based upon tidal zoning: intertidal (i.e., shallow, narrow headwater sections) and subtidal (i.e., deeper and wider sections), and watersheds were delineated for each segment. In total, we report findings on 29 intertidal and 24 subtidal creeks. Indicators sampled throughout each creek included water quality (e.g., dissolved oxygen, salinity, nutrients, chlorophyll-a levels), sediment quality (e.g., characteristics, contaminant levels including emerging contaminants), pathogen and viral indicators (e.g., fecal coliform, enterococci, F+ coliphages, F- coliphages), and abundance and tissue contamination of biological resources (e.g., macrobenthic and nektonic communities, shellfish tissue contaminants). Tidal creeks have been identified as a sentinel habitat to assess the impacts of coastal development on estuarine areas in the southeastern US. A conceptual model for tidal creeks in the southeastern US identifies that human alterations (stressors) of upland in a watershed such as increased impervious cover will lead to changes in the physical and chemical environment such as microbial and nutrient pollution (exposures), of a receiving water body which then lead to changes in the living resources (responses). The overall objective of this study is to evaluate the applicability of the current tidal creek classification framework and conceptual model linking tidal creek ecological condition to potential impacts of development and urban growth on ecosystem value and function in the Gulf of Mexico US in collaboration with Gulf of Mexico NERR sites. The conceptual model was validated for the Gulf of Mexico US tidal creeks. The tidal creek classification system developed for the southeastern US could be applied to the Gulf of Mexico tidal creeks; however, some differences were found that warrant further examination. In particular, pollutants appeared to translate further downstream in the Gulf of Mexico US compared to the southeastern US. These differences are likely the result of the morphological and oceanographic differences between the two regions. Tidal creeks appear to serve as sentinel habitats to provide an early warning of the ensuing harm to the larger ecosystem in both the Southeastern and Gulf of Mexico US tidal creeks.