1988 summer drought over the Great Plains: some causes and predictions

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): The 1988 summer drought over much of the United States is described in terms of hemispheric mid-tropospheric flow patterns, temperature and precipitation anomalies, and sea surface temperature patterns. This drought was similar to earlier Great Plains droughts, although spatially more extensive than most. Three attempts to predict this drought from antecedent spring were moderately successful, though no one anticipated its severity and extent. ... A modified barotropic model iterating from a mean summer estimate of seasonal forcing from the May mid-tropospheric height pattern was reasonably successful in forecasting the drought. Sea surface temperature indications show that cold water (La Niña) along the equator subsequent to the 1987 El Niño, while contributory, cannot be considered a principal cause of the drought, since earlier cold water episodes did not produce drought, and other drought episodes occurred in the absence of cold equatorial waters.

Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States: a state of knowledge report from the U.S. Global Change Research Program

Executive Summary: Observations show that warming of the climate is unequivocal. The global warming observed over the past 50 years is due primarily to human-induced emissions of heat-trapping gases. These emissions come mainly from the burning of fossil fuels (coal, oil, and gas), with important contributions from the clearing of forests, agricultural practices, and other activities. Warming over this century is projected to be considerably greater than over the last century. The global average temperature since 1900 has risen by about 1.5ºF. By 2100, it is projected to rise another 2 to 11.5ºF. The U.S. average temperature has risen by a comparable amount and is very likely to rise more than the global average over this century, with some variation from place to place. Several factors will determine future temperature increases. Increases at the lower end of this range are more likely if global heat-trapping gas emissions are cut substantially. If emissions continue to rise at or near current rates, temperature increases are more likely to be near the upper end of the range. Volcanic eruptions or other natural variations could temporarily counteract some of the human-induced warming, slowing the rise in global temperature, but these effects would only last a few years. Reducing emissions of carbon dioxide would lessen warming over this century and beyond. Sizable early cuts in emissions would significantly reduce the pace and the overall amount of climate change. Earlier cuts in emissions would have a greater effect in reducing climate change than comparable reductions made later. In addition, reducing emissions of some shorter-lived heat-trapping gases, such as methane, and some types of particles, such as soot, would begin to reduce warming within weeks to decades. Climate-related changes have already been observed globally and in the United States. These include increases in air and water temperatures, reduced frost days, increased frequency and intensity of heavy downpours, a rise in sea level, and reduced snow cover, glaciers, permafrost, and sea ice. A longer ice-free period on lakes and rivers, lengthening of the growing season, and increased water vapor in the atmosphere have also been observed. Over the past 30 years, temperatures have risen faster in winter than in any other season, with average winter temperatures in the Midwest and northern Great Plains increasing more than 7ºF. Some of the changes have been faster than previous assessments had suggested. These climate-related changes are expected to continue while new ones develop. Likely future changes for the United States and surrounding coastal waters include more intense hurricanes with related increases in wind, rain, and storm surges (but not necessarily an increase in the number of these storms that make landfall), as well as drier conditions in the Southwest and Caribbean. These changes will affect human health, water supply, agriculture, coastal areas, and many other aspects of society and the natural environment. This report synthesizes information from a wide variety of scientific assessments (see page 7) and recently published research to summarize what is known about the observed and projected consequences of climate change on the United States. It combines analysis of impacts on various sectors such as energy, water, and transportation at the national level with an assessment of key impacts on specific regions of the United States. For example, sea-level rise will increase risks of erosion, storm surge damage, and flooding for coastal communities, especially in the Southeast and parts of Alaska. Reduced snowpack and earlier snow melt will alter the timing and amount of water supplies, posing significant challenges for water resource management in the West. (PDF contains 196 pages)

Knowledge, attitudes and perceptions of management strategies and regulations of the Florida Keys National Marine Sanctuary by commercial fishers, dive operators, and environmental group members: A baseline characterization and 10-year comparison

This research is part of the Socioeconomic Research & Monitoring Program for the Florida Keys National Marine Sanctuary (FKNMS), which was initiated in 1998. In 1995-96, a baseline study on the knowledge, attitudes and perceptions of proposed FKNMS management strategies and regulations of commercial fishers, dive operators and on selected environmental group members was conducted by researchers at the University of Florida and the University of Miami’s Rosenstiel School of Atmospheric and Marine Science (RSMAS). The baseline study was funded by the U.S. Man and the Biosphere Program, and components of the study were published by Florida Sea Grant and in several peer reviewed journals. The study was accepted into the Socioeconomic Research & Monitoring Program at a workshop to design the program in 1998, and workshop participants recommended that the study be replicated every ten years. The 10-year replication was conducted in 2004-05 (commercial fishers) 2006 (dive operators) and 2007 (environmental group members) by the same researchers at RSMAS, while the University of Florida researchers were replaced by Thomas J. Murray & Associates, Inc., which conducted the commercial fishing panels in the FKNMS. The 10-year replication study was funded by NOAA’s Coral Reef Conservation Program. The study not only makes 10-year comparisons in the knowledge, attitudes and perceptions of FKNMS management strategies and regulations, but it also establishes new baselines for future monitoring efforts. Things change, and following the principles of “adaptive management”, management has responded with changes in the management plan strategies and regulations. Some of the management strategies and regulations that were being proposed at the time of the baseline 1995-96 study were changed before the management plan and regulations went into effect in July 1997. This was especially true for the main focus of the study which was the various types of marine zones in the draft and final zoning action plan. Some of the zones proposed were changed significantly and subsequently new zones have been created. This study includes 10-year comparisons of socioeconomic/demographic profiles of each user group; sources and usefulness of information; knowledge of purposes of FKNMS zones; perceived beneficiaries of the FKNMS zones; views on FKNMS processes to develop management strategies and regulations; views on FKNMS zone outcomes; views on FKNMS performance; and general support for FKNMS. In addition to new baseline information on FKNMS zones, new baseline information was developed for spatial use, investment and costs-and-earnings for commercial fishers and dive operators, and views on resource conditions for all three user groups. Statistical tests were done to detect significant changes in both the distribution of responses to questions and changes in mean scores for items replicated over the 10-year period. (PDF has 143 pages.)

An analysis of methods of sampling to determine the size composition of commercial landings of yellowfin tuna, Neothunnus macropterus, and skipjack, Katsuwonus pelamis

ENGLISH: The staff of the Inter-American Tropical Tuna Commission is collecting and analyzing catch statistics of the Eastern Pacific fishery for yellowfin tuna (Neothunnus macropterus) and skipjack (Katsuwonus pelamis) in order to provide the factual information required for maintaining the catch of these species at maximum sustainable levels (Shimada and Schaefer, 1956). Careful, systematic and continued studies of the population structure, life history, and ecology of these species are needed for a proper and adequate interpretation of the catch statistics so that a sound conservation program may be achieved (Schaefer, 1956). SPANISH: El personal científico de la Comisión Interamericana del Atún Tropical cumple, entre sus tareas, la de reunir y analizar las estadísticas de pesca del atún aleta amarilla (Neothunnus macropterus) y del barrilete (Katsuwonus pelamis) de la pesquería del Pacífico Oriental, a fin de adquirir la información necesaria para mantener la pesca de estas especies a niveles de producción máxima sostenible (Shimada y Schaefer, 1956). Estudios cuidadosos, sistemáticos y continuos de la estructura de la población y ciclo de vida y ecología de estas especies, son necesarios para lograr una interpretación adecuada de las estadísticas de pesca, de modo que éstas, a su vez, permitan realizar un programa conservacionista serio (Schaefer, 1956). (PDF contains 73 pages.)

Coastal management measures for the lower Maumee Watershed, Lake Erie

In January 2006 the Maumee Remedial Action Plan (RAP) Committee submitted a State II Watershed Restoration Plan for the Maumee River Great Lakes Area of Concern (AOC) area located in NW Ohio to the State of Ohio for review and endorsement (MRAC, 2006). The plan was created in order to fulfill the requirements, needs and/or use of five water quality programs including: Ohio Department of Natural Resources (DNR) Watershed Coordinator Program; Ohio EPA Great Lakes RAP Program; Ohio DNR Coastal Non-point Source Pollution Control Program; Ohio EPA Total Maximum Daily Load Program; and US Fish & Wildlife Service Natural Resources Damage Program. The plan is intended to serve as a comprehensive regional management approach for all jurisdictions, agencies, organizations, and individuals who are working to restore the watershed, waterways and associated coastal zone. The plan includes: background information and mapping regarding hydrology, geology, ecoregions, and land use, and identifies key causes and sources for water quality concerns within the six 11-digit hydrological units (HUCs), and one large river unit that comprise the Maumee AOC. Tables were also prepared that contains detailed project lists for each major watershed and was organized to facilitate the prioritization of research and planning efforts. Also key to the plan and project tables is a reference to the Ohio DNR Coastal Management Measures that may benefit from the implementation of an identified project. This paper will examine the development of the measures and their importance for coastal management and watershed planning in the Maumee AOC. (PDF contains 4 pages)

Protecting a threatened coastal fish species through regional collaboration

Rainbow smelt (Osmerus mordax) are small anadromous fish that live in nearshore coastal waters during much of the year and migrate to tidal rivers to spawn during the spring. They are a key prey species in marine food webs, as they are consumed by larger organisms such as striped bass, bluefish, and seabirds. In addition, smelt are valued culturally and economically, as they support important recreational and commercial fisheries. The Atlantic Coast range of rainbow smelt has been contracting in recent decades. Historically, populations extended from the Delaware River to eastern Labrador and the Gulf of St. Lawrence (Buckley 1989). More recent observations indicate that rainbow smelt spawning populations have been extirpated south of Long Island Sound, and evidence of spawning activity is extremely limited between Long Island and Cape Cod, MA. In the Gulf of Maine region, spawning runs are still observed, but monitoring surveys as well as commercial and recreational catches indicate that these populations have also declined (e.g., Chase and Childs 2001). Many diverse factors could drive the recently noted declines in rainbow smelt populations, including spawning habitat conditions, fish health, marine environmental conditions, and fishing pressure. Few studies have assessed any of these potential threats or their joint implications. In 2004, the National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS) listed rainbow smelt as a species of concern. Subsequently, the states of Maine, New Hampshire, and Massachusetts were awarded a grant through NMFS’s Proactive Conservation Program to gather new information on the status of rainbow smelt, identify factors that affect spawning populations, and develop a multi-state conservation program. This paper provides an overview of this collaborative project, highlighting key biological monitoring and threats assessment research that is being conducted throughout the Gulf of Maine. (PDF contains 4 pages)

Technical workshop on calculating Nmin for the dolphin stocks of the eastern Pacific Ocean

ENGLISH: This report based on the minutes of a technical workshop carried out under the auspices of the Agreement on the International Dolphin Conservation Program, which took place in La Jolla, California, USA, on August 2-5, 2005. It is reproduced as an IATTC Special Report to make it more widely available to the general public. Some minor changes in formatting have been made, but nothing of scientific importance has been deleted from or added to the report. SPANISH: El presente informe se basa en el acta de una reunión técnica que se celebró en La Jolla, California (EE.UU.) del 2 al 5 de agosto de 2005, bajo los auspicios del Acuerdo sobre el Programa Internacional para la Conservación de los Delfines. Se reproduce como Informe Especial de la CIAT para difundirlo más ampliamente al público general. Se han cambiado unos detalles del formato, pero no se ha añadido ni sustraido nada de importancia científica.

Spatial coherence and persistence in annual streamflow in the western United States [abstract]

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): Four broad regions of the western United States within which annual streamflows exhibit strong spatial coherence are identified using principal component analysis with a varimax rotation. Geographically, the four regions encompass the Pacific Northwest, Far West-Great Basin, Central Rockies-High Plains, and Northern Great Plains. These regions are really consistent with previously documented, descriptively derived streamflow regimes as well as with general atmospheric circulation and precipitation modes of variation. Collectively, the four regional components account for nearly 63 percent of the total annual variation in western U.S. streamflow. The time history of most principal component patterns exhibit little or no persistence.

Coral reef ecosystems of St. John, U.S. Virgin Islands: spatial and temporal patterns in fish and benthic communities (2001-2009)

Scientific and anecdotal observations during recent decades have suggested that the structure and function of the coral reef ecosystems around St. John, U.S. Virgin Islands have been impacted adversely by a wide range of environmental stressors. Major stressors included the mass die-off of the long-spined sea urchin (Diadema antillarum) in the early 1980s, a series of hurricanes (David and Frederick in 1979, and Hugo in 1989), overfishing, mass mortality of Acropora species and other reef-building corals due to disease and several coral bleaching events. In response to these adverse impacts, the National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science (NCCOS), Center for Coastal Monitoring and Assessment, Biogeography Branch (CCMA-BB) collaborated with federal and territorial partners to characterize, monitor, and assess the status of the marine environment around the island from 2001 to 2012. This 13-year monitoring effort, known as the Caribbean Coral Reef Ecosystem Monitoring Project (CREM), was supported by the NOAA Coral Reef Conservation Program as part of their National Coral Reef Ecosystem Monitoring Program. This technical memorandum contains analysis of nine years of data (2001-2009) from in situ fish belt transect and benthic habitat quadrat surveys conducted in and around the Virgin Islands National Park (VIIS) and the Virgin Islands Coral Reef National Monument (VICR). The purpose of this document is to: 1) Quantify spatial patterns and temporal trends in (i) benthic habitat composition and (ii) fish species abundance, size structure, biomass, and diversity; 2) Provide maps showing the locations of biological surveys and broad-scale distributions of key fish and benthic species and assemblages; and 3) Compare benthic habitat composition and reef fish assemblages in areas under NPS jurisdiction with those in similar areas not managed by NPS (i.e., outside of the VIIS and VICR boundaries). This report provides key information to help the St. John management community and others understand the impacts of natural and man-made perturbations on coral reef and near-shore ecosystems. It also supports ecosystem-based management efforts to conserve the region’s coral reef and related fauna while maintaining the many goods and ecological services that they offer to society.

Shallow-water benthic habitats of southwest Puerto Rico

This report describes the creation and assessment of benthic habitat maps for shallow-water (<30m) marine environments of the Guánica/Parguera and Finca Belvedere Natural Reserve in southwest Puerto Rico. The objective was to provide spatially-explicit information on the habitat types, biological cover and live coral cover of the region’s coral reef ecosystem. These fine-scale habitat maps, generated by interpretation of 2010 satellite imagery, provide an update to NOAA’s previous digital maps of the U.S. Caribbean (Kendall et al., 2001) for these areas. Updated shallow-water benthic habitat maps for the Guánica/Parguera region are timely in light of ongoing restoration efforts in the Guánica Bay watershed. The bay is served directly by one river, the Rio Loco, which flows intermittently and more frequently during the rainy season. The watershed has gone through a series of manipulations and alterations in past decades, mainly associated with agricultural practices, including irrigation systems, in the upper watershed. The Guánica Lagoon, previously situated to the north of the bay, was historically the largest freshwater lagoon in Puerto Rico and served as a natural filter and sediment sink prior to the discharge of the Rio Loco into the Bay. Following alterations by the Southwest Water Project in the 1950s, the Lagoon’s adjacent wetland system was ditched and drained; no longer filtering and trapping sediment from the Rio Loco. Land use in the Guánica Bay/Rio Loco watershed has also gone through several changes (CWP, 2008). Similar to much of Puerto Rico, the area was largely deforested for sugar cane cultivation in the 1800s, although reforestation of some areas occurred following the cessation of sugar cane production (Warne et al., 2005). The northern area of the watershed is generally mountainous and is characterized by a mix of forested and agricultural lands, particularly coffee plantations. Closer to the coast, the Lajas Valley Agricultural Reserve extends north of Guánica Bay to the southwest corner of the island. The land use practices and watershed changes outlined above have resulted in large amounts of sediment being distributed in the Rio Loco river valley (CWP, 2008). Storm events and seasonal flooding also transport large amounts of sediment to the coastal waters. The threats of upstream watershed practices to coral reefs and the nearshore marine environment have been gaining recognition. Guánica Bay, and the adjacent marine waters, has been identified as a “management priority area” by NOAA’s Coral Reef Conservation Program (CRCP, 2012). In a recent Guánica Bay watershed management plan, several critical issues were outlined in regards to land-based sources of pollution (LBSP; CWP, 2008). These include: upland erosion from coffee agriculture, filling of reservoirs with sediment, in-stream channel erosion, loss of historical Guánica lagoon, legacy contaminants and sewage treatment (CWP, 2008). The plan recommended several management actions that could be taken to reduce impacts of LBSP, which form the basis of Guánica watershed restoration efforts.

Synthesis of marine ecosystem monitoring activities for the United States Virgin Islands: 1990-2009

The ecological integrity of coral reef ecosystems in the U.S. Caribbean is widely considered to have deteriorated in the last three decades due to a range of threats and stressors from both human and non-human processes Rothenberger 2008, Wilkinson 2008). In response to the threats to Caribbean coral reef ecosystems and other regions around the world, the United States Government authorized the Coral Reef Conservation Act of 2000 to: (1) preserve, sustain, and restore the condition of coral reef ecosystems; (2) promote the wise management and sustainable use of coral reef ecosystems to benefit local communities and the Nation; and (3) develop sound scientific information on the condition of coral reef ecosystems and the threats to such ecosystems. The Act also resulted in the formation of a National Coral Reef Action Strategy and a Coral Reef Conservation Program. The Action Strategy (Goal 2 of Action Theme 1) outlined the importance of monitoring and assessing coral reef health as a mechanism toward reducing many threats to these ecosystems. Monitoring was considered of high importance in addressing impacts from climate change; disease; overfishing; destructive fishing practices; habitat destruction; invasive species; coastal development; coastal pollution; sedimentation/runoff and overuse from tourism. The strategy states that successful coral reef ecosystem conservation requires adaptive management that responds quickly to changing environmental conditions. This, in turn, depends on monitoring programs that track trends in coral reef ecosystem health and reveal patterns in their condition before irreparable harm occurs. As such, monitoring plays a vital role in guiding and supporting the establishment of complex or potentially controversial management strategies such as no-take ecological reserves, fishing gear restrictions, or habitat restoration, by documenting the impacts of gaps in existing management schemes and illustrating the effectiveness of new measures over time. Long-term monitoring is also required to determine the effectiveness of various management strategies to conserve and enhance coral reef ecosystems.

Integration of fisheries acoustics surveys and bathymetric mapping to characterize midwater-seafloor habitats of US Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico (2008-2010)

NOAA’s Coral Reef Conservation program (CRCP) develops coral reef management priorities by bringing together various partners to better understand threats to coral reef ecosystems with the goal of conserving, protecting and restoring these resources. Place-based and ecosystem-based management approaches employed by CRCP require that spatially explicit information about benthic habitats and fish utilization are available to characterize coral reef ecosystems and set conservation priorities. To accomplish this, seafloor habitat mapping of coral reefs around the U.S. Virgin Islands (USVI) and Puerto Rico has been ongoing since 2004. In 2008, fishery acoustics surveys were added to NOAA survey missions in the USVI and Puerto Rico to assess fish distribution and abundance in relation to benthic habitats in high priority conservation areas. NOAA’s National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science (NCCOS) have developed fisheries acoustics survey capabilities onboard the NOAA ship Nancy Foster to complement the CRCP seafloor habitat mapping effort spearheaded by the Center for Coastal Monitoring and Assessment Biogeography Branch (CCMA-BB). The integration of these activities has evolved on the Nancy Foster over the three years summarized in this report. A strategy for improved operations and products has emerged over that time. Not only has the concurrent operation of multibeam and fisheries acoustics surveys been beneficial in terms of optimizing ship time and resources, this joint effort has advanced an integrated approach to characterizing bottom and mid-water habitats and the fishes associated with them. CCMA conducts multibeam surveys to systematically map and characterize coral reef ecosystems, resulting in products such as high resolution bathymetric maps, backscatter information, and benthic habitat classification maps. These products focus on benthic features and live bottom habitats associated with them. NCCOS Centers (the Center for Coastal Fisheries and Habitat Research and the Center for Coastal Environmental Health and Biomolecular Research) characterize coral reef ecosystems by using fisheries acoustics methods to capture biological information through the entire water column. Spatially-explicit information on marine resources derived from fisheries acoustics surveys, such as maps of fish density, supports marine spatial planning strategies and decision making by providing a biological metric for evaluating coral reef ecosystems and assessing impacts from pollution, fishing pressure, and climate change. Data from fisheries acoustics surveys address management needs by providing a measure of biomass in management areas, detecting spatial and temporal responses in distribution relative to natural and anthropogenic impacts, and identifying hotspots that support high fish abundance or fish aggregations. Fisheries acoustics surveys conducted alongside multibeam mapping efforts inherently couple water column data with information on benthic habitats and provide information on the heterogeneity of both benthic habitats and biota in the water column. Building on this information serves to inform resource managers regarding how fishes are organized around habitat structure and the scale at which these relationships are important. Where resource managers require place-based assessments regarding the location of critical habitats along with high abundances of fish, concurrent multibeam and fisheries acoustics surveys serve as an important tool for characterizing and prioritizing coral reef ecosystems. This report summarizes the evolution of fisheries acoustics surveys onboard the NOAA ship Nancy Foster from 2008 to 2010, in conjunction with multibeam data collection, aimed at characterizing benthic and mid-water habitats in high priority conservation areas around the USVI and Puerto Rico. It also serves as a resource for the continued development of consistent data products derived from acoustic surveys. By focusing on the activities of 2010, this report highlights the progress made to date and illustrates the potential application of fisheries data derived from acoustic surveys to the management of coral reef ecosystems.

A survey of deep-water coral and sponge habitats along the west coast of the US using a remotely operated vehicle: NOAA Fisheries Survey Vessel (FSV)'Bell M. Shimada', November 1-5, 2010

Remotely operated vehicle (ROV) surveys were conducted from NOAA’s state-of-the-art Fisheries Survey Vessel (FSV) Bell M. Shimada during a six-day transit November 1-5, 2010 between San Diego, CA and Seattle, WA. The objective of this survey was to locate and characterize deep-sea coral and sponge ecosystems at several recommended sites in support of NOAA’s Coral Reef Conservation Program. Deep-sea corals and sponges were photographed and collected whenever possible using the Southwest Fisheries Science Center’s (SWFSC) Phantom ROV ‘Sebastes’ (Fig. 1). The surveyed sites were recommended by National Marine Sanctuary (NMS) scientists at Monterey Bay NMS, Gulf of the Farallones NMS, and Olympic Coast NMS (Fig. 2). The specific sites were: Sur Canyon, The Football, Coquille Bank, and Olympic Coast NMS. During each dive, the ROV collected digital still images, video, navigation, and along-track conductivity-temperature-depth (CTD), and optode data. Video and high-resolution photographs were used to quantify abundance of corals, sponges, and associated fishes and invertebrates to the lowest practicable taxonomic level, and also to classify the seabed by substrate type. A reference laser system was used to quantify area searched and estimate the density of benthic fauna.