The influence of global warming on freshwater plankton communities in Britain

The likely response of freshwater plankton to the direct and indirect effects of sustained global warming are summarized. The increase in CO2 posited by climatologists will have a direct effect on many biological processes, and an even more important indirect effect on the global climate. Lake plankton populations are relatively well buffered against sudden fluctuations in temperature but can react in unexpected ways to seasonal changes in the wind speed, with effects on seasonal growth and succession of plankton. The direct

Topic 1. Some steric-height features of the water off the Pacific coast of Canada; Topic 2. Possible warming of the water at station P in the northeast Pacific during 1956-1984 [abstract]

TOPIC 1: In terms of seasonal scale, temperature effect dominates the annual change of steric height in the open ocean whereas salinity effect controls it along the continental shelf. Large portion of the annual change of height relative to the 1000-db surface is contained in the upper 100m layer. However, in interannual scale large anomalies of steric height in the open ocean, are more often than not, caused by halosteric rather than thermosteric effect. At least in the open ocean the heights are almost totally determined by the behavior of deep water. Their interannual variability appears to be related to the cumulative effect of Eckman pumping. TOPIC 2: There is a "trend" that over the past 28 years the water at Station P has warmed. Least-square analysis indicates that this warming may be significant but shortening of the time-series data by approximately 10 years fails to show that this is the case. These "trends" have to be interpreted with care. The warming may be "apparent" in that it is not indicated clearly in the deep isopynal surfaces which, during the above period, have deepened. Thus warming at the isobaric surfaces may be the effect of the downward migration of the isopynal surfaces.

PICES Press, Vol. 8, No. 1, January 2000

The state of PICES science - 1999 The status of the Bering Sea: January - July, 1999 The state of the western North Pacific in the second half of 1998 The state of the eastern North Pacific since February 1999 MEQ/WG 8 Practical Workshop Michael M. Mullin - A biography Highlights of Eighth Annual Meeting Mechanism causing the variability of the Japanese sardine population: Achievements of the Bio-Cosmos Project in Japan Climate change, global warming, and the PICES mandate – The need for improved monitoring The new age of China-GLOBEC study GLOBEC activities in Korean waters Aspects of the Global Ocean Observing System (GOOS)

Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States: a state of knowledge report from the U.S. Global Change Research Program

Executive Summary: Observations show that warming of the climate is unequivocal. The global warming observed over the past 50 years is due primarily to human-induced emissions of heat-trapping gases. These emissions come mainly from the burning of fossil fuels (coal, oil, and gas), with important contributions from the clearing of forests, agricultural practices, and other activities. Warming over this century is projected to be considerably greater than over the last century. The global average temperature since 1900 has risen by about 1.5ºF. By 2100, it is projected to rise another 2 to 11.5ºF. The U.S. average temperature has risen by a comparable amount and is very likely to rise more than the global average over this century, with some variation from place to place. Several factors will determine future temperature increases. Increases at the lower end of this range are more likely if global heat-trapping gas emissions are cut substantially. If emissions continue to rise at or near current rates, temperature increases are more likely to be near the upper end of the range. Volcanic eruptions or other natural variations could temporarily counteract some of the human-induced warming, slowing the rise in global temperature, but these effects would only last a few years. Reducing emissions of carbon dioxide would lessen warming over this century and beyond. Sizable early cuts in emissions would significantly reduce the pace and the overall amount of climate change. Earlier cuts in emissions would have a greater effect in reducing climate change than comparable reductions made later. In addition, reducing emissions of some shorter-lived heat-trapping gases, such as methane, and some types of particles, such as soot, would begin to reduce warming within weeks to decades. Climate-related changes have already been observed globally and in the United States. These include increases in air and water temperatures, reduced frost days, increased frequency and intensity of heavy downpours, a rise in sea level, and reduced snow cover, glaciers, permafrost, and sea ice. A longer ice-free period on lakes and rivers, lengthening of the growing season, and increased water vapor in the atmosphere have also been observed. Over the past 30 years, temperatures have risen faster in winter than in any other season, with average winter temperatures in the Midwest and northern Great Plains increasing more than 7ºF. Some of the changes have been faster than previous assessments had suggested. These climate-related changes are expected to continue while new ones develop. Likely future changes for the United States and surrounding coastal waters include more intense hurricanes with related increases in wind, rain, and storm surges (but not necessarily an increase in the number of these storms that make landfall), as well as drier conditions in the Southwest and Caribbean. These changes will affect human health, water supply, agriculture, coastal areas, and many other aspects of society and the natural environment. This report synthesizes information from a wide variety of scientific assessments (see page 7) and recently published research to summarize what is known about the observed and projected consequences of climate change on the United States. It combines analysis of impacts on various sectors such as energy, water, and transportation at the national level with an assessment of key impacts on specific regions of the United States. For example, sea-level rise will increase risks of erosion, storm surge damage, and flooding for coastal communities, especially in the Southeast and parts of Alaska. Reduced snowpack and earlier snow melt will alter the timing and amount of water supplies, posing significant challenges for water resource management in the West. (PDF contains 196 pages)

Temperature conditions in the cold pool 1977-81: A comparison between Southern New England and New York transects

Expendable bathythermograph data collected by the Ships of Opportunity (SOOP) - Ocean Monitoring Program are analyzed for seasonal and inter-annual variations of the cold pool. Two major SOOP transects within the Middle Atlantic Bight (Southern New England and New York) have been analyzed for the years common to both (1977-81). During the years 1977-81, over 200 transects were occupied, and almost 3,000 XBT's were dropped. Results show that the cold pool is formed with the onset of spring warming and persists until fall overturn, is consistent year to year in both area and weighted average annual temperature, and advects water from the northeast to the southwest. Results also show a 100-d lag in minimum temperature between the Southern New England and New York transects. DitTerences in bathymetry between the two transects and their influence on the cold pool are also discussed. Plots of average (1977-81) bottom temperature for both transects are discussed and show consistent annual weighted mean temperature and areas. Bottom temperature plots for individual years, as well as maximum and minimum bottom temperature plots, are presented as Appendix figures. (PDF file contains 28 pages.)

The El Nino of 1972-1973 in the Eastern Tropical Pacific Ocean

ENGLISH: Beginning in February 1972 the usual seasonal cooling of the surface water of the eastern Pacific Ocean in the region of the Peru Current and along the equator failed to develop. By July tropical coastal and equatorial island stations and ships crossing the equator were recording sea-surface temperatures which were 6° to 8°F (3.3°-4.4°C) above the long-term mean. The anomalies spread over most of the eastern tropical Pacific and westward into the central equatorial Pacific through September. During October surface temperatures at coastal stations along South America were returning to normal, but in November and December 1972 temperatures rose rapidly again, with a near-record temperature anomaly of 8.1°F (4.2°C) above the long-term mean recorded at Puerto Chieama, Peru (7°42'S-79°27'W). After January 1973 sea-surface temperatures began returning to normal over most of the eastern tropical Pacific, and by March 1973 the El Nino had completed its cycle. Monthly sea-surface temperature anomalies over the eastern tropical Pacific are discussed to show the extent and magnitude of warming. Annual temperature profiles at several South American coastal and equatorial island stations are compared with temperature profiles for the 1957-1958 and 1965 EI Nino years. Characteristics of the temperature anomaly profiles at Puerto Chicama during several very warm years for the 1925-1972 period are also compared. Finally, meteorological factors contributing to a relaxation of the southeast trade winds and to the decreased unwilling along the coast of South America in 1972-1973 are examined. SPANISH: A comienzos de febrero de 1972, no se registró el enfriamiento común estacional del agua superficial del Océano Pacífico oriental en la región de la Corriente del Perú y a lo largo del ecuador. En julio las estaciones tropicales, costeras y de las islas ecuatoriales, y los barcos que cruzaban la linea ecuatorial registraron temperaturas superficiales del mar de 6° a 8°F (3.3°-4.4°C) más altas que la media a largo plazo. Las anomalías se esparcieron sobre la mayoría del Pacífico oriental tropical, y al oeste en el Pacífico central ecuatorial. En octubre, las temperaturas superficiales de las estaciones costaneras a lo largo de Sudamérica volvieron a la normalidad, pero en noviembre y diciembre de 1972, las temperaturas de nuevo ascendieron rápidamente con una anomalía de temperatura que alcanzó 8.1°F (4.2°C) sobre la media a largo plazo registrada en Puerto Chicama, Perú (7°42'S-79°27'W). Después de enero 1973 las temperaturas de la superficie del mar volvieron rápidamente a la normalidad en la mayoría del Pacífico oriental tropical y en marzo de 1973 el Niño había completado su ciclo. Se discuten las anomalías mensuales de las temperaturas de la superficie del mar en el Pacífico oriental tropical para indicar la extensión y magnitud del calentamiento. Los perfiles anuales de temperatura en varias estaciones costeras y de las islas ecuatoriales sudamericanas se comparan con los perfiles de temperatura de los años en que ocurrió el Niño en 1957-1958 y 1965. Se comparan también las características de los perfiles de las anomalías de temperatura en Puerto Chicama durante varios años muy cálidos para el período de 1925-1972. Finalmente, se examinan los factores meteorológicos que contribuyen al debilitamiento de los vientos alisios del sudeste y a la reducción del afloramiento a lo largo de la costa sudamericana en 1972-1973. (PDF contains 48 pages.)

Unterschiedliche Trends beim Fischnachwuchs der Nordsee

During this years’ International Bottom Trawl Survey (IBTS) of ICES, a total of 407 half hour tows were made in the North Sea including Skagerrak in January/ February, 1998. Results indicate except for sprat no outstanding incoming yearclasses for cod, haddock, saithe, Norway pout, whiting, herring, and mackerel. Most of the adult cod and saithe investigated did not show normal gonad development for this time of the year. The abundance of skates and sharks was still low. Results of 68 hydrographical stations of R.V. “Walter Herwig III” showed in contrast to four preceeding IBTS-surveys a warming of the northern North Sea of approx. 1 K.

Das Klima um Grönland - 1996

Based on air temperature data from three sites of West and East Greenland, on ice charts for the area 54°N, 71°N and 20°W, 70°W, and on CTD profile observations around Greenland, the annual variability of climate is shown. Mean monthly air temperature data from Nuuk/West Greenland reveal the long-term interannual changes of air temperature anomalies. The warming trend which was observed during November, December 1995 was maintained into 1996 for about five months. Thus, spring warming of the near surface water layers, especially on the shallow bank areas off West Greenland has been favoured. As a result of mild air temperatures over most of 1996, sea ice conditions were about normal around Greenland and off eastern Canada. Subsurface observations indicate considerable warming of the 0-200 m water layer off West Greenland. The thermal anomaly of this layer amounts to +1.59K, which is the second highest value on record since the warm 1964 event. The warmer than normal conditions as recorded since November 1995 off East and West Greenland, point at intermediate warming which is characteristic of the second half of the recent decades. The long-term trend of air temperature anomalies off West Greenland points, however, still at cooling, a trend which is persistent since the early 1970s. As the potential driving mechanism for the intermediate warming in the Labrador Sea area, the sea level air pressure gradient between Iceland and the Azores is identified. The 1996 value of this gradient, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) Index, is strongly negative and this represents the flow of mild air masses from the midlatitude Atlantic Ocean to the Greenland/Labrador Sea region. Accordingly, air temperature anomalies indicated unusual warming during the month of February which amounted to >2K in the region of Baffin Land, Labrador and Greenland.

If the tide is rising, who pays for the ark?

Two common goals of this meeting are to arrest the effects of sea level rise and other phenomena caused by Greenhouse Gases from anthropogenic sources ("GHG",) and to mitigate the effects. The fundamental questions are: (1) how to get there and (2) who should shoulder the cost? Given Washington gridlock, states, NGO's and citizens such as the Inupiat of the Village of Kivalina have turned to the courts for solutions. Current actions for public nuisance seek (1) to reduce and eventually eliminate GHG emissions, (2) damages for health effects and property damage—plus hundreds of millions in dollars spent to prepare for the foregoing. The U.S. Court of Appeals just upheld the action against the generators of some 10% of the CO2 emissions from human activities in the U.S., clearing the way for a trial featuring the state of the art scientific linkage between GHG production and the effects of global warming. Climate change impacts on coastal regions manifest most prominently through sea level rise and its impacts: beach erosion, loss of private and public structures, relocation costs, loss of use and accompanying revenues (e.g. tourism), beach replenishment and armoring costs, impacts of flooding during high water events, and loss of tax base. Other effects may include enhanced storm frequency and intensity, increased insurance risks and costs, impacts to water supplies, fires and biological changes through invasions or local extinctions (IPCC AR4, 2007; Okmyung, et al., 2007). There is an increasing urgency for federal and state governments to focus on the local and regional levels and consistently provide the information, tools, and methods necessary for adaptation. Calls for action at all levels acknowledge that a viable response must engage federal, state and local expertise, perspectives, and resources in a coordinated and collaborative effort. A workshop held in December 2000 on coastal inundation and sea level rise proposes a shared framework that can help guide where investments should be made to enable states and local governments to assess impacts and initiate adaptation strategies over the next decade. (PDF contains 5 pages)

Investigating changes in global tropical cyclone storm frequency and intensity

Understanding fluctuations in tropical cyclone activity along United States shores and abroad becomes increasingly important as coastal managers and planners seek to save lives, mitigate damage, and plan for resilience in the face of changing storminess and sea-level rise. Tropical cyclone activity has long been of concern to coastal areas as they bring strong winds, heavy rains, and high seas. Given projections of a warming climate, current estimates suggest that not only will tropical cyclones increase in frequency, but also in intensity (maximum sustained winds and minimum central pressures). An understanding of what has happened historically is an important step in identifying potential future changes in tropical cyclone frequency and intensity. The ability to detect such changes depends on a consistent and reliable global tropical cyclone dataset. Until recently no central repository for historical tropical cyclone data existed. To fill this need, the International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS) dataset was developed to collect all known global historical tropical cyclone data into a single source for dissemination. With this dataset, a global examination of changes in tropical cyclone frequency and intensity can be performed. Caveats apply to any historical tropical cyclone analysis however, as the data contributed to the IBTrACS archive from various tropical cyclone warning centers is still replete with biases that may stem from operational changes, inhomogeneous monitoring programs, and time discontinuities. A detailed discussion of the difficulties in detecting trends using tropical cyclone data can be found in Landsea et al. 2006. The following sections use the IBTrACS dataset to show the global spatial variability of tropical cyclone frequency and intensity. Analyses will show where the strongest storms typically occur, the regions with the highest number of tropical cyclones per decade, and the locations of highest average maximum wind speeds. (PDF contains 3 pages)

Predicting the effects of climate change on sea turtle nesting habitat in Florida

Rising global temperatures threaten the survival of many plant and animal species. Having already risen at an unprecedented rate in the past century, temperatures are predicted to rise between 0.3 and 7.5C in North America over the next 100 years (Hawkes et al. 2007). Studies have documented the effects of climate warming on phenology (timing of seasonal activities), with observations of early arrival at breeding grounds, earlier ends to the reproductive season, and delayed autumnal migrations (Pike et al. 2006). In addition, for species not suited to the physiological demands of cold winter temperatures, increasing temperatures could shift tolerable habitats to higher latitudes (Hawkes et al. 2007). More directly, climate warming will impact thermally sensitive species like sea turtles, who exhibit temperature-dependent sexual determination. Temperatures in the middle third of the incubation period determine the sex of sea turtle offspring, with higher temperatures resulting in a greater abundance of female offspring. Consequently, increasing temperatures from climate warming would drastically change the offspring sex ratio (Hawkes et al. 2007). Of the seven extant species of sea turtles, three (leatherback, Kemp’s ridley, and hawksbill) are critically endangered, two (olive ridley and green) are endangered, and one (loggerhead) is threatened. Considering the predicted scenarios of climate warming and the already tenuous status of sea turtle populations, it is essential that efforts are made to understand how increasing temperatures may affect sea turtle populations and how these species might adapt in the face of such changes. In this analysis, I seek to identify the impact of changing climate conditions over the next 50 years on the availability of sea turtle nesting habitat in Florida given predicted changes in temperature and precipitation. I predict that future conditions in Florida will be less suitable for sea turtle nesting during the historic nesting season. This may imply that sea turtles will nest at a different time of year, in more northern latitudes, to a lesser extent, or possibly not at all. It seems likely that changes in temperature and precipitation patterns will alter the distribution of sea turtle nesting locations worldwide, provided that beaches where the conditions are suitable for nesting still exist. Hijmans and Graham (2006) evaluate a range of climate envelope models in terms of their ability to predict species distributions under climate change scenarios. Their results suggested that the choice of species distribution model is dependent on the specifics of each individual study. Fuller et al. (2008) used a maximum entropy approach to model the potential distribution of 11 species in the Arctic Coastal Plain of Alaska under a series of projected climate scenarios. Recently, Pike (in press) developed Maxent models to investigate the impacts of climate change on green sea turtle nest distribution and timing. In each of these studies, a set of environmental predictor variables (including climate variables), for which ‘current’ conditions are available and ‘future’ conditions have been projected, is used in conjunction with species occurrence data to map potential species distribution under the projected conditions. In this study, I will take a similar approach in mapping the potential sea turtle nesting habitat in Florida by developing a Maxent model based on environmental and climate data and projecting the model for future climate data. (PDF contains 5 pages)

Improving the chances for developing coastal country success in adapting to climate change

There is an unequivocal scientific consensus that increases in greenhouse gases in the atmosphere drive warming temperatures of air and sea, and acidification of the world’s oceans from carbon dioxide absorbed by the oceans. These changes in turn can induce shifts in precipitation patterns, sea level rise, and more frequent and severe extreme weather events (e.g. storms and sea surge). All of these impacts are already being witnessed in the world’s coastal regions and are projected to intensify in years to come. Taken together, these impacts are likely to result in significant alteration of natural habitats and coastal ecosystems, and increased coastal hazards in low-lying areas. They can affect fishers, coastal communities and resource users, recreation and tourism, and coastal infrastructure. Approaches to planned adaptation to these impacts can be drawn from the lessons and good practices from global experience in Integrated Coastal Management (ICM). The recently published USAID Guidebook on Adapting to Coastal Climate Change (USAID 2009) is directed at practitioners, development planners, and coastal management professionals in developing countries. It offers approaches for assessing vulnerability to climate change and climate variability in communities and outlines how to develop and implement adaptation measures at the local and national levels. Six best practices for coastal adaptation are featured in the USAID Guidebook on Adapting to Coastal Climate Change and summarized in the following sections. (PDF contains 3 pages)

Using climate extension to assist coastal decision-makers with climate adaptation

Coastal managers need accessible, trusted, tailored resources to help them interpret climate information, identify vulnerabilities, and apply climate information to decisions about adaptation on regional and local levels. For decades, climate scientists have studied the impacts that short term natural climate variability and long term climate change will have on coastal systems. For example, recent estimates based on Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) warming scenarios suggest that global sea levels may rise 0.5 to 1.4 meters above 1990 levels by 2100 (Rahmstorf 2007; Grinsted, Moore, and Jevrejeva 2009). Many low-lying coastal ecosystems and communities will experience more frequent salt water intrusion events, more frequent coastal flooding, and accelerated erosion rates before they experience significant inundation. These changes will affect the ways coastal managers make decisions, such as timing surface and groundwater withdrawals, replacing infrastructure, and planning for changing land use on local and regional levels. Despite the advantages, managers’ use of scientific information about climate variability and change remains limited in environmental decision-making (Dow and Carbone 2007). Traditional methods scientists use to disseminate climate information, like peer-reviewed journal articles and presentations at conferences, are inappropriate to fill decision-makers’ needs for applying accessible, relevant climate information to decision-making. General guides that help managers scope out vulnerabilities and risks are becoming more common; for example, Snover et al. (2007) outlines a basic process for local and state governments to assess climate change vulnerability and preparedness. However, there are few tools available to support more specific decision-making needs. A recent survey of coastal managers in California suggests that boundary institutions can help to fill the gaps between climate science and coastal decision-making community (Tribbia and Moser 2008). The National Sea Grant College Program, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) university-based program for supporting research and outreach on coastal resource use and conservation, is one such institution working to bridge these gaps through outreach. Over 80% of Sea Grant’s 32 programs are addressing climate issues, and over 60% of programs increased their climate outreach programming between 2006 and 2008 (National Sea Grant Office 2008). One way that Sea Grant is working to assist coastal decision-makers with using climate information is by developing effective methods for coastal climate extension. The purpose of this paper is to discuss climate extension methodologies on regional scales, using the Carolinas Coastal Climate Outreach Initiative (CCCOI) as an example of Sea Grant’s growing capacities for climate outreach and extension. (PDF contains 3 pages)