Simulation of recent global temperature trends [abstract]

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): Observations show that global average tropospheric temperatures have been rising during the past century, with the most recent portion of record showing a sharp rise since the mid-1970s.

Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States: a state of knowledge report from the U.S. Global Change Research Program

Executive Summary: Observations show that warming of the climate is unequivocal. The global warming observed over the past 50 years is due primarily to human-induced emissions of heat-trapping gases. These emissions come mainly from the burning of fossil fuels (coal, oil, and gas), with important contributions from the clearing of forests, agricultural practices, and other activities. Warming over this century is projected to be considerably greater than over the last century. The global average temperature since 1900 has risen by about 1.5ºF. By 2100, it is projected to rise another 2 to 11.5ºF. The U.S. average temperature has risen by a comparable amount and is very likely to rise more than the global average over this century, with some variation from place to place. Several factors will determine future temperature increases. Increases at the lower end of this range are more likely if global heat-trapping gas emissions are cut substantially. If emissions continue to rise at or near current rates, temperature increases are more likely to be near the upper end of the range. Volcanic eruptions or other natural variations could temporarily counteract some of the human-induced warming, slowing the rise in global temperature, but these effects would only last a few years. Reducing emissions of carbon dioxide would lessen warming over this century and beyond. Sizable early cuts in emissions would significantly reduce the pace and the overall amount of climate change. Earlier cuts in emissions would have a greater effect in reducing climate change than comparable reductions made later. In addition, reducing emissions of some shorter-lived heat-trapping gases, such as methane, and some types of particles, such as soot, would begin to reduce warming within weeks to decades. Climate-related changes have already been observed globally and in the United States. These include increases in air and water temperatures, reduced frost days, increased frequency and intensity of heavy downpours, a rise in sea level, and reduced snow cover, glaciers, permafrost, and sea ice. A longer ice-free period on lakes and rivers, lengthening of the growing season, and increased water vapor in the atmosphere have also been observed. Over the past 30 years, temperatures have risen faster in winter than in any other season, with average winter temperatures in the Midwest and northern Great Plains increasing more than 7ºF. Some of the changes have been faster than previous assessments had suggested. These climate-related changes are expected to continue while new ones develop. Likely future changes for the United States and surrounding coastal waters include more intense hurricanes with related increases in wind, rain, and storm surges (but not necessarily an increase in the number of these storms that make landfall), as well as drier conditions in the Southwest and Caribbean. These changes will affect human health, water supply, agriculture, coastal areas, and many other aspects of society and the natural environment. This report synthesizes information from a wide variety of scientific assessments (see page 7) and recently published research to summarize what is known about the observed and projected consequences of climate change on the United States. It combines analysis of impacts on various sectors such as energy, water, and transportation at the national level with an assessment of key impacts on specific regions of the United States. For example, sea-level rise will increase risks of erosion, storm surge damage, and flooding for coastal communities, especially in the Southeast and parts of Alaska. Reduced snowpack and earlier snow melt will alter the timing and amount of water supplies, posing significant challenges for water resource management in the West. (PDF contains 196 pages)

"Global Change" und das Meer als Nahrungsquelle

The potential importance of marine produetion as a protein ressource for a growing human population can hardly be overestimated. Climatic changes in the marine environment may affect marine production in a significant way. Increasing levels of UV-B may decrease primary production and thus diminish the food base for harvestable marine ressources. Direct effects on early stages of fishes may occur. Temperature changes can lead to additional mortality in the early phase of life histories of fishes. In spite of the potentially negative scenario, actual effects of global change on the ressources have not been detected so far. The marine organisms dispose of a significant level of pre-adaptation to changes of environmental factors both on a seasonal and an interannual scale. Effects on marine life may therefore be less dramatic than those on terrestrial systems, which are more directly linked with the exponentially growing human population.

A sensitivity analysis of Southwestern climate [abstract and conclusions]

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): We provide here an estimate of the extent that modern climate in the southwest US is sensitive to changes in several parameters that reflect global climatic changes. For the purposes of this study, we define modern climate as mean monthly values for the months of February and August (called winter and summer, respectively) of temperature and precipitation, at points representing the average of cells of dimension 7.5' on a side. The area studied surrounds the drainage basin of Death Valley, California.

Swimming depth, ambient water temperature preference, and feeding frequency of young Pacific bluefin tuna (Thunnus orientalis) determined with archival tags

We investigated the migration and behavior of young Pacific Bluefin tuna (Thunnus orientalis) using archival tags. The archival tag measures environmental variables, records them in its memory, and estimates daily geographical locations based on measured light levels. Of 166 archival tags implanted in Pacific bluefin tuna that were released at the northeastern end of the East China Sea from 1995 to 1997, 30 tags were recovered, including one from a fish that migrated across the Pacific. This article describes swimming depth, ambient water temperature, and feeding frequency of young Pacific bluefin tuna based on retrieved data. Tag performance, effect of the tag on the fish, and horizontal movements of the species are described in another paper. Young Pacific bluefin tuna swim mainly in the mixed layer, usually near the sea surface, and swim in deeper water in daytime than at nighttime. They also exhibit a pattern of depth changes, corresponding to sunrise and sunset, apparently to avoid a specific low light level. The archival tags recorded temperature changes in viscera that appear to be caused by feeding, and those changes indicate that young Pacific bluefin tuna commonly feed at dawn and in the daytime, but rarely at dusk or at night. Water temperature restricts their distribution, as indicated by changes in their vertical distribution with the seasonal change in depth of the thermocline and by the fact that their horizontal distribution is in most cases confined to water in the temperature range of 14−20°C.

Long-term and seasonal patterns in coastal temperature and salinity along the North American west coast

Numerous integrated time series have been assembled that suggest global temperature has been increasing steadily over the last century. ... However, superimposed on the long-term warming trends of these series are decadal-scale fluctuations, periods of slightly increasing and even decreasing temperature followed by rapid increases in temperature. ... In this pilot study, data for 1931-1990 from eight [western North America] coastal stations are examined to test the utility of a state-space statistical model (developed by Dr. Roy Mendelssohn, PFEG) in separating and describing seasonal patterns and long-term trends.

Seasonal Changes in Chemical Composition of Eurasion Watermilfoil (Myriophyllum spicatum L.) and Water Temperature at Two Sites in northern California: implications for Herbivory

We compared seasonal changes in Eurasian watermilfoil (Myriophyllum spicatum L.) characteristics and water temperature for a shallow poind in Davis, CA, and the Truckee River, near Tahoe City, CA. Tissue C and N were 15% lower in plants from the Truckee River than in plants from the Davis pond. Seasonal fluctuations in tissue N were also different. Mean phenolic acid content of Truckee River palnts (162yM g-1) was less than those from the shallow pond (195 yM g-1). Phenolic acid content was positively related to tissue C for Truckee River and Davis pond plants and, tissue C:N ratio for Truckee River plants. Mean monthly water temperature (1990 to 1998) for the Truckee River site was less than 20 C. Water temperatures were warmer in August and September at this site. However, Eurasian watermilfoil collected during these months was characterized by lower levels of tissue N. During a 29-month period beginning January 1994, mean monthly water temperature for the Davis pond exceeded 20 C, only during July to September 1995. Tissue N was generally greater during summer for watermilfoil growing in the pond. These results imply that Eurasian watermilfoil biological control agents may have different developmental rates in these habitats, and thus different impacts on watermilfoil populations.

Investigating changes in global tropical cyclone storm frequency and intensity

Understanding fluctuations in tropical cyclone activity along United States shores and abroad becomes increasingly important as coastal managers and planners seek to save lives, mitigate damage, and plan for resilience in the face of changing storminess and sea-level rise. Tropical cyclone activity has long been of concern to coastal areas as they bring strong winds, heavy rains, and high seas. Given projections of a warming climate, current estimates suggest that not only will tropical cyclones increase in frequency, but also in intensity (maximum sustained winds and minimum central pressures). An understanding of what has happened historically is an important step in identifying potential future changes in tropical cyclone frequency and intensity. The ability to detect such changes depends on a consistent and reliable global tropical cyclone dataset. Until recently no central repository for historical tropical cyclone data existed. To fill this need, the International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS) dataset was developed to collect all known global historical tropical cyclone data into a single source for dissemination. With this dataset, a global examination of changes in tropical cyclone frequency and intensity can be performed. Caveats apply to any historical tropical cyclone analysis however, as the data contributed to the IBTrACS archive from various tropical cyclone warning centers is still replete with biases that may stem from operational changes, inhomogeneous monitoring programs, and time discontinuities. A detailed discussion of the difficulties in detecting trends using tropical cyclone data can be found in Landsea et al. 2006. The following sections use the IBTrACS dataset to show the global spatial variability of tropical cyclone frequency and intensity. Analyses will show where the strongest storms typically occur, the regions with the highest number of tropical cyclones per decade, and the locations of highest average maximum wind speeds. (PDF contains 3 pages)

The influence of global warming on freshwater plankton communities in Britain

The likely response of freshwater plankton to the direct and indirect effects of sustained global warming are summarized. The increase in CO2 posited by climatologists will have a direct effect on many biological processes, and an even more important indirect effect on the global climate. Lake plankton populations are relatively well buffered against sudden fluctuations in temperature but can react in unexpected ways to seasonal changes in the wind speed, with effects on seasonal growth and succession of plankton. The direct

Temperature, organic matter and the sustainability of aquatic systems

Changes in sustainability of aquatic ecosystems are likely to be brought about by the global warming that has been widely predicted. In this article, the effects of water temperature on water-bodies (lakes, oceans and rivers) are reviewed followed by the effects of temperature on aquatic organisms. Almost all aquatic organisms require exogenous heat before they can metabolise efficiently. An organism that is adapted to warm temperatures will have a higher rate of metabolism of food organisms and this increases feeding rate. In addition, an increase in temperature raises the metabolism of food organisms, so food quality can be altered. Where populations have a different tolerance to temperature the result is habitat partitioning. One effect of prolonged high temperature is that it causes water to evaporate readily. In the marine littoral this is not an important problem as tides will replenish water in pools. Small rain pools are found in many tropical countries during the rainy season and these become incompletely dried at intervals. The biota of such pools must have resistant stages within the life cycle that enable them to cope with periods of drying. The most important potential effects of global warming include (i) the alteration of existing coastlines, (ii) the development of more deserts on some land masses, (iii) higher productivity producing higher crop production but a greater threat of algal blooms and (iv) the processing of organic matter at surface microlayers.

Year-to-year changes of vertical temperature distribution in the California Current region: 1954 to 1986

Studies by Enfield and Allen (1980), McLain et al (1985), and others have shown that anomalously warm years in the northern coastal California Current correspond to El Niño conditions in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Ocean model studies suggest a mechanical link between the northern coastal California Current and the equatorial ocean through long waves that propagate cyclonically along the ocean boundary (McCreary 1976; Clarke 1983; Shriver et al 1991). However, distinct observational evidence of such an oceanic connection is not extensive. Much of the supposed El Niño variation in temperature and sea level data from the coastal California Current region can be associated with the effects of anomalously intense north Pacific atmospheric cyclogenesis, which is frequently augmented during El Niño years (Wallace and Gutzler 1981; Simpson 1983; Emery and Hamilton 1984). This study uses time series of ocean temperature data to distinguish between locally forced effects, initiated by north Pacific atmospheric changes, and remotely forced effects, initiated by equatorial Pacific atmospheric changes related to El Niño events.

Modeling North Pacific temperature and pressure changes from coastal tree-ring chronologies

Climate modeling using coastal tree-ring chronologies has yielded the first summer temperature reconstructions for coastal stations along the Gulf of Alaska and the Pacific Northwest. These land temperature reconstructions are strongly correlated with nearby sea surface temperatures, indicating large-scale ocean-atmospheric influences. Significant progress has also been made in modeling winter land temperatures and sea surface temperatures from coastal and shipboard stations. In addition to temperature, the pressure variability center over the central North Pacific Ocean (PAC), which is related to the strength and location of the Aleutian Low pressure system, could be extended using coastal tree rings.

Use of simple fat analysis for evaluating quality changes in intermediate moisture fish stored at tropical temperature

Changes in the quality of intermediate moisture (IM) fish during storage at 38°C were monitored by assessing the moisture content, pH, acid value, peroxide value and thiobarbituric acid (TBA) value periodically. Results adequately portrayed the hydrolysis and peroxidation of fats and the concomitant protein degradation and crosslinking reactions that have been shown by more sophisticated methods to occur in intermediate moisture fish. Since these changes markedly affect the organoleptic quality, acceptability/shelf-life and nutritive value of IM flesh-foods their predictability by simple fat analytical techniques is of practical value where/when the more sophisticated monitoring techniques are not feasible.

Organoleptic and microbiological quality changes of catla (Catla catla) in immediate and delayed ice storage and at ambient temperature

An investigation was carried out on the quality changes of Catla (Catla calla) stored immediately (0 h) in ice, after 6 hours in ice and at ambient temperature. The samples were examined for organoleptic and microbiological parameters in summer. Organoleptically, the acceptability of fish varied between 16-20 days in both the iced storage conditions and 12-13.5 hours at ambient temperature (28°C). When fish were organoleptically just acceptable on the 16th day of storage, bacterial load were 6.23 and 6.17 log10 cfu/g, respectively for 0 hour and after 6 hours iced fish. But on the 20th day of storage, when fish were just unacceptable SPC were 6.51 and 6.62 log10 cfu/g. In case of ambient temperature storage condition standard plate count was 8.36 log10 cfu/g on 13.5 hours, when fish were organoleptically just unacceptable. At the time of rejection for fish stored in ice (0 hour and after 6 hours) on 20th day, gram negative and gram positive values were 55.45%, 44.55% and 44.52%, 55.48% respectively. While fish were rejected after 13.5 hours at ambient temperature gram negative and gram positive bacteria were found as 43.02% and 56.98%. The differences in SPC, gram positive and gram negative bacteria between the storage times were statistically significant (p<0.05).

The study of correlation between sea surface temperature (SST) by using the NOAA-AVHRR data and compare this data with temperature measurement in the Caspian Sea

The changes in time and location of surface temperature from a water body has an important effect on climate activities, marine biology, sea currents, salinity and other characteristics of the seas and lakes water. Traditional measurement of temperature is costly and time consumer due to its dispersion and instability. In recent years the use of satellite technology and remote sensing sciences for data acquiring and parameter and lysis of climatology and oceanography is well developed. In this research we used the NOAA’s Satellite images from its AVHRR system to compare the field surface temperature data with the satellite images information. Ten satellite images were used in this project. These images were calibrated with the field data at the exact time of satellite pass above the area. The result was a significant relation between surface temperatures from satellite data with the field work. As the relative error less than %40 between these two data is acceptable, therefore in our observation the maximum error is %21.2 that can be considered it as acceptable. In all stations the result of satellite measurements is usually less than field data that cores ponds with the global result too. As this sea has a vast latitude, therefore the different in the temperature is natural. But we know this factor is not the only cause for surface currents. The information of all satellites were images extracted by ERDAS software, and the “Surfer” software is used to plot the isotherm lines.