Gap analysis of marine ecosystem data for the Department of Interior, National Park Service Inventory & Monitoring Program

The Gap Analysis of Marine Ecosystem Data project is a review of available geospatial data which can assist in marine natural resource management for eight park units. The project includes the collection of geospatial information and its incorporation in a single consistent geodatabase format. The project also includes a mapping portal which can be seen at: http://ccma.nos.noaa.gov/explorer/gapanalysis/gap_analysis.html In addition to the collection of geospatial information and mapping portal we have conducted a gap analysis of a standard suite of available information for managing marine resources. Additional gap were identified by interviewing park service staff.

Defining plausible migration rates based on historical tagging data: a Bayesian mark-recapture model applied to English sole (Parophrys vetulus)

A generalized Bayesian population dynamics model was developed for analysis of historical mark-recapture studies. The Bayesian approach builds upon existing maximum likelihood methods and is useful when substantial uncertainties exist in the data or little information is available about auxiliary parameters such as tag loss and reporting rates. Movement rates are obtained through Markov-chain Monte-Carlo (MCMC) simulation, which are suitable for use as input in subsequent stock assessment analysis. The mark-recapture model was applied to English sole (Parophrys vetulus) off the west coast of the United States and Canada and migration rates were estimated to be 2% per month to the north and 4% per month to the south. These posterior parameter distributions and the Bayesian framework for comparing hypotheses can guide fishery scientists in structuring the spatial and temporal complexity of future analyses of this kind. This approach could be easily generalized for application to other species and more data-rich fishery analyses.

Incorporating fishery observer data into an integrated catch-at-age and multiyear tagging model for estimating mortality rates and abundance

Tagging experiments are a useful tool in fisheries for estimating mortality rates and abundance of fish. Unfortunately, nonreporting of recovered tags is a common problem in commercial fisheries which, if unaccounted for, can render these estimates meaningless. Observers are often employed to monitor a portion of the catches as a means of estimating reporting rates. In our study, observer data were incorporated into an integrated model for multiyear tagging and catch data to provide joint estimates of mortality rates (natural and f ishing), abundance, and reporting rates. Simulations were used to explore model performance under a range of scenarios (e.g., different parameter values, parameter constraints, and numbers of release and recapture years). Overall, results indicated that all parameters can be estimated with reasonable accuracy, but that fishing mortality, reporting rates, and abundance can be estimated with much higher precision than natural mortality. An example of how the model can be applied to provide guidance on experimental design for a large-scale tagging study is presented. Such guidance can contribute to the successful and cost-effective management of tagging programs for commercial fisheries.

Evaluating methods for estimating rare events with zero-heavy data: a simulation model estimating sea turtle bycatch in the pelagic longline fishery

Estimating rare events from zero-heavy data (data with many zero values) is a common challenge in fisheries science and ecology. For example, loggerhead sea turtles (Caretta caretta) and leatherback sea turtles (Dermochelys coriacea) account for less than 1% of total catch in the U.S. Atlantic pelagic longline fishery. Nevertheless, the Southeast Fisheries Science Center (SEFSC) of the National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS) is charged with assessing the effect of this fishery on these federally protected species. Annual estimates of loggerhead and leatherback bycatch in a fishery can affect fishery management and species conservation decisions. However, current estimates have wide confidence intervals, and their accuracy is unknown. We evaluate 3 estimation methods, each at 2 spatiotemporal scales, in simulations of 5 spatial scenarios representing incidental capture of sea turtles by the U.S. Atlantic pelagic longline fishery. The delta-log normal method of estimating bycatch for calendar quarter and fishing area strata was the least biased estimation method in the spatial scenarios believed to be most realistic. This result supports the current estimation procedure used by the SEFSC.

Dynamics of bigeye (Thunnus obesus) and yellowfin (T. albacares) tuna in Hawaii’s pelagic fisheries: analysis of tagging data with a bulk transfer model incorporating size-specific attrition

Tag release and recapture data of bigeye (Thunnus obesus) and yellowfin tuna (T. albacares) from the Hawaii Tuna Tagging Project (HTTP) were analyzed with a bulk transfer model incorporating size-specific attrition to infer population dynamics and transfer rates between various fishery components. For both species, the transfer rate estimates from the offshore handline fishery areas to the longline fishery area were higher than the estimates of transfer from those same areas into the inshore fishery areas. Natural and fishing mortality rates were estimated over three size classes: yellowfin 20–45, 46–55, and ≥56 cm and bigeye 29–55, 56–70, and ≥71 cm. For both species, the estimates of natural mortality were highest in the smallest size class. For bigeye tuna, the estimates decreased with increasing size and for yellowfin tuna there was a slight increase in the largest size class. In the Cross Seamount fishery, the fishing mortality rate of bigeye tuna was similar for all three size classes and represented roughly 12% of the gross attrition rate (includes fishing and natural mortality and emigration rates). For yellowfin tuna, fishing mortality ranged between 7% and 30%, the highest being in the medium size class. For both species, the overall attrition rate from the entire fishery area was nearly the same. However, in the specific case of the Cross Seamount fishery, the attrition rate for yellowfin tuna was roughly twice that for bigeye. This result indicates that bigeye tuna are more resident at the Seamount than yellowfin tuna, and larger bigeye tunas tend to reside longer than smaller individuals. This may result in larger fish being more vulnerable to capture in the Seamount fishery. The relatively low level of exchange between the Sea-mount and the inshore and longline fisheries suggests that the fishing activity at the Seamount need not be of great management concern for either species. However, given that the current exploitation rates are considered moderate (10–30%), and that Seamount aggregations of yellowfin and bigeye tuna are highly vulnerable to low-cost gear types, it is recommended that further increases in fishing effort for these species be monitored at Cross Seamount.

Development of a new model of feeding strategy analysis of fish incorporating resource availability and use data

A feeding strategy model is proposed using stomach content and resource availability data as a modification to Costello (1990) and Amundsen et al. (1996). Incorporation of feeding electivity index (E) instead of the prey-specific abundance signifies the importance of resource availability in prey selection as well as the predator's ability to specialize, generalize or avoid particular prey items at the individual and population level.