16 resultados para Generalized linear models
em Aquatic Commons
Resumo:
ENGLISH: Monthly estimates of the abundance of yellowfin tuna by age groups and regions within the eastern Pacific Ocean during 1970-1988 are made, using purse-seine catch rates, length-frequency samples, and results from cohort analysis. The numbers of individuals caught of each age group in each logged purse-seine set are estimated, using the tonnage from that set and length-frequency distribution from the "nearest" length-frequency sample(s). Nearest refers to the closest length frequency sample(s) to the purse-seine set in time, distance, and set type (dolphin associated, floating object associated, skipjack associated, none of these, and some combinations). Catch rates are initially calculated as the estimated number of individuals of the age group caught per hour of searching. Then, to remove the effects of set type and vessel speed, they are standardized, using separate weiznted generalized linear models for each age group. The standardized catch rates at the center of each 2.5 0 quadrangle-month are estimated, using locally-weighted least-squares regressions on latitude, longitude and date, and then combined into larger regions. Catch rates within these regions are converted to numbers of yellowfin, using the mean age composition from cohort analysis. The variances of the abundance estimates within regions are large for 0-, 1-, and 5-year-olds, but small for 1.5- to 4-year-olds, except during periods of low fishing activity. Mean annual catch rate estimates for the entire eastern Pacific Ocean are significantly positively correlated with mean abundance estimates from cohort analysis for age groups ranging from 1.5 to 4 years old. Catch-rate indices of abundance by age are expected to be useful in conjunction with data on reproductive biology to estimate total egg production within regions. The estimates may also be useful in understanding geographic and temporal variations in age-specific availability to purse seiners, as well as age-specific movements. SPANISH: Se calculan estimaciones mensuales de la abundancia del atún aleta amarilla por grupos de edad y regiones en el Océano Pacífico oriental durante 1970-1988, usando tasas de captura cerquera, muestras de frecuencia de talla, y los resultados del análisis de cohortes. Se estima el número de individuos capturados de cada grupo de edad en cada lance cerquero registrado, usando el tonelaje del lance en cuestión y la distribución de frecuencia de talla de la(s) muestra(s) de frecuencia de talla "más cercana/s)," "Más cercana" significa la(s) muestra(s) de frecuencia de talla más parecida(s) al lance cerquero en cuanto a fecha, distancia, y tipo de lance (asociado con delfines, con objeto flotante, con barrilete, con ninguno de éstos, y algunas combinaciones). Se calculan inicialmente las tasas de captura como el número estimado de individuos del grupo de edad capturado por hora de búsqueda. A continuación, para eliminar los efectos del tipo de lance y la velocidad del barco, se estandardizan dichas tasas, usando un modelo lineal generalizado ponderado, para cada grupo por separado. Se estima la tasa de captura estandardizada al centro de cada cuadrángulo de 2.5°-mes, usando regresiones de mínimos cuadrados ponderados localmente por latitud, longitud, y fecha, y entonces combinándolas en regiones mayores. Se convierten las tasas de captura dentro de estas regiones en números de aletas amarillas individuales, usando el número promedio por edad proveniente del análisis de cohortes. Las varianzas de las estimaciones de la abundancia dentro de las regiones son grandes para los peces de O, 1, Y5 años de edad, pero pequeñas para aquellos de entre 1.5 Y4 años de edad, excepto durante períodos de poca actividad pesquera. Las estimaciones de la tasa de captura media anual para todo el Océano Pacífico oriental están correlacionadas positivamente de forma significativa con las estimaciones de la abundancia media del análisis de las cohortes para los grupos de edad de entre 1.5 y 4 años. Se espera que los índices de abundancia por edad basados en las tasas de captura sean útiles, en conjunto con datos de la biología reproductiva, para estimar la producción total de huevos por regiones. Las estimaciones podrían asimismo ser útiles para la comprensión de las variaciones geográficas y temporales de la disponibilidad específica por edad a los barcos cerqueros, y también las migraciones específicas por edad. (PDF contains 35 pages.)
Resumo:
ENGLISH: Longline hook rates of bigeye and yellowfin tunas in the eastern Pacific Ocean were standardized by maximum depth of fishing, area, and season, using generalized linear models (GLM's). The annual trends of the standardized hook rates differ from the unstandardized, and are more likely to represent the changes in abundance of tunas in the age groups most vulnerable to longliners in the fishing grounds. For both species all of the interactions in the GLM's involving years, depths of fishing, areas, and seasons were significant. This means that the annual trends in hook rates depend on which depths, areas, and seasons are being considered. The overall average hook rates for each were estimated by weighting each 5-degree quadrangle equally and each season by the number of months in it. Since the annual trends in hook rates for each fishing depth category are roughly the same for bigeye, total average annual hook rate estimates are possible with the GLM. For yellowfin, the situation is less clear because of a preponderance of empty cells in the model. The full models explained 55% of the variation in bigeye hook rate and 33% of that of yellowfin. SPANISH: Se estandardizaron las tasas de captura con palangre de atunes patudo y aleta amarilla en el Océano Pacífico oriental por la profunidad máxima de pesca, área, y temporada, usando modelos lineales generalizados (MLG). Las tendencias anuales de las tasas de captura estandardizadas son diferentes a las de las tasas no estandardizadas, y es más que representen los cambios en la abundancia de los atunes en los grupos de edad más vulnerables a los palangreros en las áreas de pesca. Para ambas especies fueron significativas todas las interacciones en los MLG con año, profundidad de pesca, área, y temporada. Esto significa que las tendencias anuales de las tasas de captura dependen de cuál profundidad, área, y temporado se está considerando. Para la estimación de la tasa de captura general media para cada especie se ponderó cada cuadrángulo de 5 grados igualmente y cada temporada por el número de meses que contiene. Ya que las tendencias anuales en las tasas de captura para cada categoría de profundidad de pesca son aproximadamente iguales para el patudo, son posibles estimaciones de la tasa de captura anual media total con el MLG. En el caso del aleta amarilla, la situación es más confusa, debido a una preponderancia de celdas vacías en el modelo. Los modelos completos explican el 55% de la variación de la tasa de captura de patudo y 33% de la del aleta amarilla. (PDF contains 19 pages.)
Resumo:
We compared numbers of strikes, proportions of fish that hooked up after strikes, proportions of fish that stayed on hook (retained) after hook up, and numbers of fish caught between circle and J hooks rigged with dead natural fish bait (ballyhoo)and trolled for three oceanic predator species: dolphinfish (Coryphaena hippurus), yellowfin tuna (Thunnus albacares), and wahoo (Acanthocybium solandri). Interactions were compared between circle and J hooks fished on 75 trips by two user groups (charter and recreational fishermen). Hooks were affixed to three species-specific leader types most commonly fished in this region: monofilament (dolphinfish), fluorocarbon (tuna), and wire (wahoo). Numbers of fish caught per trip and three potential mechanisms that might inf luence numbers caught (i.e., number of strikes, proportion of fish hooked, and proportion retained) were modeled with generalized linear models that considered hook type, leader type, species, user (fishing) group, and wave height as main effects. Hook type was a main effect at the catch level; generally, more fish were caught on J hooks than on circle hooks. The effect of hook type on strike rates was equivocal. However, J hooks had a greater proportion of hook-ups than did circle hooks. Finally, the proportion of fish retained once hooked was generally equal between hook types. We found similar results when data from additional species were pooled as a “tuna” group and a “mackerel” group. We conclude that J hooks are more effective than circle hooks at the hook-up level and result in greater numbers of troll-caught dolphinfish, tunas
Resumo:
The Common Octopus, Octopus vulgaris, is an r-selected mollusk found off the coast of North Carolina that interests commercial fishermen because of its market value and the cost-effectiveness of unbaited pots that can catch it. This study sought to: 1) determine those gear and environmental factors that influenced catch rates of octopi, and 2) evaluate the feasibility of small-scale commercial operations for this species. Pots were fished from August 2010 through September 2011 set in strings over hard and sandy bottom in waters from 18 to 30 m deep in Onslow Bay, N.C. Three pot types were fished in each string; octopus pots with- and without lids, and conch pots. Proportional catch was modeled as a function of gear design and environmental factors (location, soak time, bottom type, and sea surface water temperature) using binomially distributed generalized linear models (GLM’s); parsimony of each GLM was assessed with Akaike Information Criteria (AIC). A total of 229 octopi were caught throughout the study. Pots with lids, pots without lids, and conch pots caught an average of 0.15, 0.17, and 0.11 octopi, respectively, with high variability in catch rates for each pot type. The GLM that best fit the data described proportional catch as a function of sea surface temperature, soak time, and station; greatest proportional catches occurred over short soak times, warmest temperatures, and less well known reef areas. Due to operating expenses (fuel, crew time, and maintenance), low catch rates of octopi, and high gear loss, a directed fishery for this species is not economically feasible at the catch rates found in this study. The model fitting to determine factors most influential on catch rates should help fishermen determine seasons and gear soak times that are likely to maximize catch rates. Potting for octopi may be commercially practical as a supplemental activity when targeting demersal fish species that are found in similar habitats and depth ranges in coastal waters off North Carolina.
Resumo:
Paired-tow calibration studies provide information on changes in survey catchability that may occur because of some necessary change in protocols (e.g., change in vessel or vessel gear) in a fish stock survey. This information is important to ensure the continuity of annual time-series of survey indices of stock size that provide the basis for fish stock assessments. There are several statistical models used to analyze the paired-catch data from calibration studies. Our main contributions are results from simulation experiments designed to measure the accuracy of statistical inferences derived from some of these models. Our results show that a model commonly used to analyze calibration data can provide unreliable statistical results when there is between-tow spatial variation in the stock densities at each paired-tow site. However, a generalized linear mixed-effects model gave very reliable results over a wide range of spatial variations in densities and we recommend it for the analysis of paired-tow survey calibration data. This conclusion also applies if there is between-tow variation in catchability.
Resumo:
Seasonal trawling was conducted randomly in coastal (depths of 4.6–17 m) waters from St. Augustine, Florida, (29.9°N) to Winyah Bay, South Carolina (33.1°N), during 2000–03, 2008–09, and 2011 to assess annual trends in the relative abundance of sea turtles. A total of 1262 loggerhead sea turtles (Caretta caretta) were captured in 23% (951) of 4207 sampling events. Capture rates (overall and among prevalent 5-cm size classes) were analyzed through the use of a generalized linear model with log link function for the 4097 events that had complete observations for all 25 model parameters. Final models explained 6.6% (70.1–75.0 cm minimum straight-line carapace length [SCLmin]) to 14.9% (75.1–80.0 cm SCLmin) of deviance in the data set. Sampling year, geographic subregion, and distance from shore were retained as significant terms in all final models, and these terms collectively accounted for 6.2% of overall model deviance (range: 4.5–11.7% of variance among 5-cm size classes). We retained 18 parameters only in a subset of final models: 4 as exclusively significant terms, 5 as a mixture of significant or nonsignificant terms, and 9 as exclusively nonsignificant terms. Four parameters also were dropped completely from all final models. The generalized linear model proved appropriate for monitoring trends for this data set that was laden with zero values for catches and was compiled for a globally protected species. Because we could not account for much model deviance, metrics other than those examined in our study may better explain catch variability and, once elucidated, their inclusion in the generalized linear model should improve model fits.
Resumo:
In May 2001, the National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS) opened two areas in the northwestern Atlantic Ocean that had been previously closed to the U.S. sea scallop (Placopecten magellanicus) dredge fishery. Upon reopening these areas, termed the “Hudson Canyon Controlled Access Area” and the “Virginia Beach Controlled Access Area,” NMFS observers found that marine turtles were being caught incidentally in scallop dredges. This study uses the generalized linear model and the generalized additive model fitting techniques to identify environmental factors and gear characteristics that influence bycatch rates, and to predict total bycatch in these two areas during May-December 2001 and 2002 by incorporating environmental factors into the models. Significant factors affecting sea turtle bycatch were season, time-of-day, sea surface temperature, and depth zone. In estimating total bycatch, rates were stratified according to a combination of all these factors except time-of-day which was not available in fishing logbooks. Highest bycatch rates occurred during the summer season, in temperatures greater than 19°C, and in water depths from 49 to 57 m. Total estimated bycatch of sea turtles during May–December in 2001 and 2002 in both areas combined was 169 animals (CV=55.3), of which 164 (97%) animals were caught in the Hudson Canyon area. From these findings, it may be possible to predict hot spots for sea turtle bycatch in future years in the controlled access areas.
Resumo:
ENGLISH: Estimates of relative annual abundance of yellowfin tuna in the eastern Pacific Ocean during 1970-1985 are made using catch rates, measured as tons caught by purse seiners per hour of searching. Catch rates are standardized a weighted generalized linear model. The important standardizing factors are vessel speed, season-area, and whether the yellowfin were caught in association with dolphins, skipjack tuna, or floating objects. Observations are weighted to give equal areas equal weight and to give each unit of fishing effort equal weight within an area. The results indicate that catch per days fishing underestimates abundance during the late 1970's when the fishery shifted some of its effort from dolphin sets to floating object sets, and overestimates abundance when the fishery shifted back to dolphin sets in 1984 and 1985. SPANISH: Se estima la abundancia anual relativa del atún aleta amarilla en el Océano Pacífico oriental (OPO) durante 1970-1985 por medio de tasas de captura, calculadas como toneladas cortas capturadas por barcos cerqueros por hora de búsqueda. Se usa un modelo lineal ponderado generalizado para estandardizar las tasas de captura. Los factores importantes de estandardización son la velocidad del barco, temporada-área, y si se capturaron los aletas amarillas en asociación con delfines, barriletes, o objetos flotantes. Se ponderaron las observaciones para otorgar igual importancia a áreas iguales y a cada unidad de esfuerzo pesquero dentro de un área. Los resultados señalan que la captura por día de pesca estima por bajo la abundancia durante los últimos años de la década de los 70, en cual época la pesquería trasladó parte de su esfuerzo de lances sobre delfines a lances sobre objetos flotantes, y la sobreestima al volver la pesquería a lances sobre delfines en 1984 y 1985. (PDF contains 45 pages.)
Resumo:
ENGLISH: We analyzed catches per unit of effort (CPUE) from the Japanese longline fishery for bigeye tuna (Thunnus obesus) in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean (EPO) with regression tree methods. Regression trees have not previously been used to estimate time series of abundance indices fronl CPUE data. The "optimally sized" tree had 139 parameters; year, month, latitude, and longitude interacted to affect bigeye CPUE. The trend in tree-based abundance indices for the EPO was similar to trends estimated from a generalized linear model and fronl an empirical model that combines oceanographic data with information on the distribution of fish relative to environmental conditions. The regression tree was more parsimonious and would be easier to implement than the other two nl0dels, but the tree provided no information about the nlechanisms that caused bigeye CPUEs to vary in time and space. Bigeye CPUEs increased sharply during the mid-1980's and were more variable at the northern and southern edges of the fishing grounds. Both of these results can be explained by changes in actual abundance and changes in catchability. Results from a regression tree that was fitted to a subset of the data indicated that, in the EPO, bigeye are about equally catchable with regular and deep longlines. This is not consistent with observations that bigeye are more abundant at depth and indicates that classification by gear type (regular or deep longline) may not provide a good measure of capture depth. Asimulated annealing algorithm was used to summarize the tree-based results by partitioning the fishing grounds into regions where trends in bigeye CPUE were similar. Simulated annealing can be useful for designing spatial strata in future sampling programs. SPANISH: Analizamos la captura por unidad de esfuerzo (CPUE) de la pesquería palangrera japonesa de atún patudo (Thunnus obesus) en el Océano Pacifico oriental (OPO) y central con métodos de árbol de regresión. Hasta ahora no se han usado árboles de regresión para estimar series de tiempo de índices de abundancia a partir de datos de CPUE. EI árbol de "tamaño optimo" tuvo 139 parámetros; ano, mes, latitud, y longitud interactuaron para afectar la CPUE de patudo. La tendencia en los índices de abundancia basados en árboles para el OPO fue similar a las tendencias estimadas con un modelo lineal generalizado y con un modelo empírico que combina datos oceanográficos con información sobre la distribución de los peces en relación con las condiciones ambientales. EI árbol de regresión fue mas parsimonioso y seria mas fácil de utilizar que los dos otros modelos, pero no proporciono información sobre los mecanismos que causaron que las CPUE de patudo valiaran en el tiempo y en el espacio. Las CPUE de patudo aumentaron notablemente a mediados de los anos 80 y fueron mas variables en los extremos norte y sur de la zona de pesca. Estos dos resultados pueden ser explicados por cambios en la abundancia real y cambios en la capturabilidad. Los resultados de un arbal de regresión ajustado a un subconjunto de los datos indican que, en el OPO, el patudo es igualmente capturable con palangres regulares y profundos. Esto no es consistente con observaciones de que el patudo abunda mas a profundidad e indica que clasificación por tipo de arte (palangre regular 0 profundo) podría no ser una buena medida de la profundidad de captura. Se uso un algoritmo de templado simulado para resumir los resultados basados en el árbol clasificando las zonas de pesca en zonas con tendencias similares en la CPUE de patudo. El templado simulado podría ser útil para diseñar estratos espaciales en programas futuros de muestreo. (PDF contains 45 pages.)
Resumo:
Growth is one of the most important characteristics of cultured species. The objective of this study was to determine the fitness of linear, log linear, polynomial, exponential and Logistic functions to the growth curves of Macrobrachium rosenbergii obtained by using weekly records of live weight, total length, head length, claw length, and last segment length from 20 to 192 days of age. The models were evaluated according to the coefficient of determination (R2), and error sum off square (ESS) and helps in formulating breeders in selective breeding programs. Twenty full-sib families consisting 400 PLs each were stocked in 20 different hapas and reared till 8 weeks after which a total of 1200 animals were transferred to earthen ponds and reared up to 192 days. The R2 values of the models ranged from 56 – 96 in case of overall body weight with logistic model being the highest. The R2 value for total length ranged from 62 to 90 with logistic model being the highest. In case of head length, the R2 value ranged between 55 and 95 with logistic model being the highest. The R2 value for claw length ranged from 44 to 94 with logistic model being the highest. For last segment length, R2 value ranged from 55 – 80 with polynomial model being the highest. However, the log linear model registered low ESS value followed by linear model for overall body weight while exponential model showed low ESS value followed by log linear model in case of head length. For total length the low ESS value was given by log linear model followed by logistic model and for claw length exponential model showed low ESS value followed by log linear model. In case of last segment length, linear model showed lowest ESS value followed by log linear model. Since, the model that shows highest R2 value with low ESS value is generally considered as the best fit model. Among the five models tested, logistic model, log linear model and linear models were found to be the best models for overall body weight, total length and head length respectively. For claw length and last segment length, log linear model was found to be the best model. These models can be used to predict growth rates in M. rosenbergii. However, further studies need to be conducted with more growth traits taken into consideration
Resumo:
Trawling was conducted in the Charleston, South Carolina, shipping channel between May and August during 2004–07 to evaluate loggerhead sea turtle (Caretta caretta) catch rates and demographic distributions. Two hundred and twenty individual loggerheads were captured in 432 trawling events during eight sampling periods lasting 2–10 days each. Catch was analyzed by using a generalized linear model. Data were fitted to a negative binomial distribution with the log of standardized sampling effort (i.e., an hour of sampling with a net head rope length standardized to 30.5 m) for each event treated as an offset term. Among 21 variables, factors, and interactions, five terms were significant in the final model, which accounted for 45% of model deviance. Highly significant differences in catch were noted among sampling periods and sampling locations within the channel, with greatest catch furthest seaward consistent with historical observations. Loggerhead sea turtle catch rates in 2004–07 were greater than in 1991–92 when mandatory use of turtle excluder devices was beginning to be phased in. Concurrent with increased catch rates, loggerheads captured in 2004–07 were larger than in 1991–92. Eighty-five percent of loggerheads captured were ≤75.0 cm straight-line carapace length (nuchal notch to tip of carapace) and there was a 3.9:1 female-to-male bias, consistent with limited data for this location two decades earlier. Only juvenile loggerheads ≤75.0 cm possessed haplotypes other than CC-A01 or CC-A02 that dominate in the region. Six rare and one un-described haplotype were predominantly found in June 2004.
Resumo:
We evaluated habitat quality for juvenile California halibut (Paralichthys californicus) in a Pacific Coast estuary lacking in strong salinity gradients by examining density, recent otolith growth rates, and gut fullness levels of wild-caught and caged juveniles for one year. Juveniles <200 mm standard length were caught consistently in the inner, central, and outer sections of the estuary. The density of juveniles was two times higher in the inner estuary during most of the year, consistent with active habitat selection by part of the population. A generalized linear model indicated temperature, sampling time, and the interaction between salinity and temperature were significantly related to density. However, the model explained only 21% of the variance. Gut fullness levels of wild-caught juveniles were highest during the summer, but recent otolith growth rates were not related to temperature. The proportion of individuals feeding successfully indicated that seasonal differences in food availability are more important than spatial variation in prey abundance in driving feeding success. Feeding success of caged fishes was limited, precluding the use of growth rates as indicators of local habitat quality. However, marginal increment widths were reliable indicators of somatic growth at low growth rates over two-week periods. The relatively high growth rates and abundance of small wild-caught juveniles found throughout the estuary indicates that the entire estuary system has the potential for serving as nursery habitat.
Resumo:
Cod captured by commercial fi shery in the Bornholm Basin in quarter 2 of 2001 were not suitable for the mechanical processing due to low condition and weight. The absolute mean weight of cod captured by the commercial fishery in the Arkona Sea and Bornholm Basin in the same quarter during the last fi ve years was studied to describe its development. The results of a GLM (Generalized Linear Model) analysis showed similar development of body weight in the Bornholm Basin and in the Arkona Sea between 2007 and 2011. The mean weight of cod in the Bornholm Basin increased from 2007 to 2008 in both areas followed by a relative stable weight until 2009 and a decrease until 2011. In the Arkona Sea the mean weight of cod 2009 has decreased in comparison to 2008, then have increased 2010 slightly and last have decreased in 2011. The analyses showed that the weight of cod is signifi cantly infl uenced by length, age and maturity of individuals.
Resumo:
The foraging ecology of bottlenose dolphins Tursiops truncatus in the Northwest Florida Panhandle and estuaries in northern Georgia was determined using diet analysis and behavioral surveys. Stomach content analysis was completed on bottlenose dolphins(N = 25) that stranded in the Northwest Florida Panhandle from November 2006 to March 2009. The most abundant prey species were spot Leiostomus xanthurus (20.4%), squid (10.9%), pinfish Lagodon rhombiodes (10.3%), and Atlantic croaker Micropogonias undulatus (8.5%). Dolphins that stranded during months with a red tide Karenia brevis bloom consumed more pinfish, and spot; whereas dolphins that stranded in non-bloom months consumed more squid, Atlantic croaker, and silver perch Bairdiella chrysoura. Differences in diet were also identified for dolphins that stranded inside bays/sound and dolphin that stranded outside of bays along the coast, and male and female dolphins. Surveys were conducted from south of the Savannah River to north of Ossabaw Sound in Georgia where foraging behaviors were classified. Multivariate Generalized Additive Models were used to test correlations of behaviors to dolphin group size, depth, salinity, temperature, creek width, and tide. Sightings with headstands (p = 0.009), hard stops (p = 0.019), chasing (p = 0.004), mudbank whacking (p < 0.001), herding/circling (p = 0.024), and strand feeding (p = 0.006) were correlated with shallow water or small creeks. Sightings with kerplunking (p = 0.031), mudbank whacking (p = 0.001), strand feeding (p = 0.003), and herding/circling (p = 0.026) were significantly correlated with low tide. The results of the Savannah, Georgia study were the first to characterize foraging behaviors in this area and demonstrate how bottlenose dolphins utilize the salt marsh estuary in terms of foraging. Studies like these are important to determine how dolphins forage efficiently and to provide background information on diet and foraging behavior for use in monitoring future impacts to dolphins in the Northwest Florida Panhandle and near Savannah, Georgia.