Land surface hydrology in a general circulation model: global and regional fields needed for validation

For the last two decades most general circulation models (GCMs) have included some kind of surface hydrology submodel. The content of these submodels is becoming increasingly complex and realistic. It is still easy to identify defects in present treatments. Yet, to improve our ability to model the contribution of land hydrology to climate and climate change, we must be concerned not with just the surface hydrology submodel per se, but also with how it works in the overall context of the GCM.

The Los Alamos General Circulation Model hydrologic cycle

As the global population has increased, so have human influences on the global environment. ... How can we better understand and predict these natural and potential anthropogenic variations? One way is to develop a model that can accurately describe all the components of the hydrologic cycle, rather than just the end result variables such as precipitation and soil moisture. If we can predict and simulate variations in evaporation and moisture convergence, as well as precipitation, then we will have greater confidence in our ability to at least model precipitation variations. Therefore, we describe here just how well we can model relevant aspects of the global hydrologic cycle. In particular, we determine how well we can model the annual and seasonal mean global precipitation, evaporation, and atmospheric water vapor transport.

État des stocks pélagiques côtiers en Côte d'Ivoire

Evolution of catch and catch by unit effort of the sardine fishing boats (purse seiners) has been examined from 1966 to 1975. The effort data has been calculated with a new computer programme: Crosardi (Soisson et Barbe, 1974). The analysis has been done on the whole stock and in more detail on the east and west stocks of Côte d'Ivoire. The Sardinella eba stock has been analysed separately. Those analyses were done using the general production model (Prodfit; Fox, 1974). The stock of the eastern area of the Côte d'Ivoire seems to be exploited at its maximum level. Nevertheless, the western area stock could be able to support a progressive increase of fishing effort.

Length-weight Relationships of Dolphinfish, Coryphaena hippurus, and Wahoo, Acanthocybium solandri: Seasonal Effects of Spawning and Possible Migration in the Central North Pacific

Weight-on-length (W-L) relationships for 2,482 dolphinfish, Coryphaena hippurus, and 1,161 wahoo, Acanthocybium solandri, were examined. Data on fork length, whole (round) weight, and sex were collected for dolphinfish at the Honolulu fish auction from March 1988 through November 1989. Unsexed weight and length data for wahoo were collected at the auction from July 1988 through November 1989. We also used sex specific weight and length data of 171 wahoo collected during 1977–1985 research cruises for analysis. Coefficients of W-L regressions were significantly different between the sexes for dolphinfish. Coefficients did not significantly differ between the sexes for wahoo based on research cruise data. In a general linear model evaluating month as a categorical factor, month was significant for female dolphinfish, male dolphinfish, and wahoo with sexes pooled. W-L and length-on-weight (L-W) relationships were fitted by nonlinear regression for all dolphinfish, female dolphinfish, male dolphinfish, and all wahoo sexes pooled. W-L relationships for monthly samples of female dolphinfish, male dolphinfish, and all wahoo with sexes pooled were also fitted by nonlinear regression. Predicted mean weight at length for wahoo was highest at the beginning of the spawning season in June and lowest after the spawning season in September. Maximum and minimum predicted mean weight at length for both sexes of dolphinfish did not correspond with the peak spawning period (March–May). Plausible migration models in conjunction with reproductive behavior were examined to explain the variability in monthly predicted mean weight at length for dolphinfish.

Simulation and diagnosis of large-scale atmospheric moisture and surface hydrology over North America

We describe a preliminary investigation into large-scale atmospheric and surface moisture variations over North America. We compare large-scale hydrologic budgets in the Los Alamos general circulation model (GCM) to observed precipitation and vertically integrated atmospheric moisture fluxes derived from the National Meteorological Center's operational analyses. THe GCM faithfully simulates the integrated flux divergence and P-E differences. However, the integrated moisture content is too low, and precipitation and evaporation are too high. The model produces summertime soil moisture dryness, which supports previous studies showing increased droughts under warmer conditions.

A numerical simulation of cool/wet and warm/wet episodes in the western United States

Wintertime precipitation in the mountains of the western United States during a warm or cool period has a pronounced influence on streamflow. During a warm year, streamflow at intermediate elevations responds more immediately to precipitation events; during a cold year, much of the discharge is delayed until the snow melts in spring and summer. Previous efforts at studying these extremes have been hampered by a limited number and length of observational analyses. In this study, we augment this limited observational record by analyzing a simplified general circulation model.

Decadal climate variability over the North Pacific and North America: dynamics and predictability [abstract]

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): The dynamics and predictability of decadal climate variability over the North Pacific and North America are investigated by analyzing various observational datasets and the output of a state-of-the-art coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model, which was integrated for 120 years.

Decadal variability over the North Pacific Ocean [abstract]

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): In this study we use ocean and atmosphere datasets from observations and from an ocean general circulation model integration to examine decadal time scale variability that is centered in the Pacific basin. We know that decadal variability is likely to have a strong expression in the Pacific basin; for example, a marked "shift" of cool season climate in the mid-1970s introduced major changes in Pacific SST and atmospheric circulation, along with many other physical and biological properties.

Some perspectives on the late Quaternary paleoclimate of Beringia

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): Analyses of the modern summer synoptic climatology of Beringia illustrate that the region cannot be treated as a homogenous climatic unit as a result of different circulation controls that operate over the region. GCM (general circulation model) simulations and information from the modern synoptic climatology were used to infer the summer paleosynoptic climatology of the region since the last glacial maximum. ... Variations in these climatic controls offer important implications in assessing the vegetation histories of western Beringia versus eastern Beringia.

A general framework for integrating environmental time series into stock assessment models: model description, simulation testing, and example

We present a method to integrate environmental time series into stock assessment models and to test the significance of correlations between population processes and the environmental time series. Parameters that relate the environmental time series to population processes are included in the stock assessment model, and likelihood ratio tests are used to determine if the parameters improve the fit to the data significantly. Two approaches are considered to integrate the environmental relationship. In the environmental model, the population dynamics process (e.g. recruitment) is proportional to the environmental variable, whereas in the environmental model with process error it is proportional to the environmental variable, but the model allows an additional temporal variation (process error) constrained by a log-normal distribution. The methods are tested by using simulation analysis and compared to the traditional method of correlating model estimates with environmental variables outside the estimation procedure. In the traditional method, the estimates of recruitment were provided by a model that allowed the recruitment only to have a temporal variation constrained by a log-normal distribution. We illustrate the methods by applying them to test the statistical significance of the correlation between sea-surface temperature (SST) and recruitment to the snapper (Pagrus auratus) stock in the Hauraki Gulf–Bay of Plenty, New Zealand. Simulation analyses indicated that the integrated approach with additional process error is superior to the traditional method of correlating model estimates with environmental variables outside the estimation procedure. The results suggest that, for the snapper stock, recruitment is positively correlated with SST at the time of spawning.