GCM-data intercomparison: the good news and the bad

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): General circulation models (GCMs) are probably the most sophisticated theoretical tools we have to simulate possible climatic effects of increasing carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases. ... As will be illustrated here using a variety of examples, although the models do simulate "reality" very well on the "grand" scale (e.g., global, hemispheric, zonal), substantial differences are more apparent as the scale is reduced to areas particularly relevant to regional planners. It is particularly important that workers more clearly recognize the potential dangers in relying too heavily on simple summary statistics such as averages estimated over large regional scales. Many shortcomings are apparent in the model simulations of the present climate, indicating that further model improvements are needed to achieve reliable regional and seasonal projections of the future climatic conditions.

Simulations of phytoplankton dynamics in El Gergal Reservoir, Southern Spain (PROTECH)

The Mediterranean region is characterised by a variable climate with most of the rain falling during the winter and frequent summer droughts. Such warm, dry periods are ideal for the growth of large algal blooms that often consist of potentially toxic Cyanobacteria. This makes the management of water for human use particularly challenging in such a climate and it is important to understand how such blooms can be avoided or at least be reduced in size. PROTECH (Phytoplankton RespOnses To Environmental CHange) is a model that simulates the dynamics of different species of phytoplankton populations in lakes and reservoirs. Its distinct advantage over similar models is its ability to simulate the relative composition of the algal flora, allowing both quantitative and qualitative conclusions to be drawn e.g. whether Cyanobacteria could be a potential problem. PROTECH has been applied primarily to lakes and reservoirs in northern Europe. Recently, however, the model has been applied to water bodies in lower latitudes, including Australia to a water supply reservoir in the south of Spain, El Gergal. El Gergal is the last in a chain of reservoirs that supply water to the city of Seville. It was brought into service in April 1979 and has a maximum storage volume of 35 000 000 m3. This article summarises the application of PROTECH in order to simulate the following problems: • the effect of a large influx of Ceratium biomass into El Gergal from another reservoir • the effect of using alternative water sources instead of the Guadalquivir River (used occasionally to raise water levels in El Gergal) • the effect of installing tertiary sewage treatment on the Cala River • the effect of simulated drought conditions on phytoplankton in the reservoir.

Evaluating the efficacy of managing West Coast groundfish resources through simulations

Management of West Coast groundfish resources by the Pacific Fishery Management Council involves Federal government and academic scientists conducting stock assessments, generally using the stock synthesis framework, applying the 40-10 rule to determine harvest guidelines for resources that are not overfished and conducting rebuilding analyses to determine harvest guidelines for resources that have been designated as overfished. However, this management system has not been evaluated in terms of its ability to satisfy the National Standard 1 goals of the Sustainable Fisheries Act. A Monte Carlo simulation framework is therefore outlined that can be used to make such evaluations. Based on simulations tailored to a situation similar to that of managing the widow rockfish (Sebastes entomelas) resource, it is shown that catches during recovery and thereafter are likely to be highly variable (up to ±30% from one year to the next). Such variability is far greater than has been presented to the decision makers to date. Reductions in interannual variability in catches through additional data collection are, however, unlikely. Rather, improved performance will probably arise from better methods for predicting future recruitment. Rebuilding analyses include quantities such as the year to which the desired probability of recovery applies. The estimates of such quantities are, however, very poorly determined.

The annual course of precipitation over much of the United States: observed versus GCM simulation

General Circulation Models (GCMs) may be useful in estimating the ecological impacts of global climatic change. We analyzed seasonal weather patterns over the conterminous United States and determined that regional patterns of rainfall seasonality appear to control the distributions of the Nation's major biomes. These regional patterns were compared to the output from three GCMs for validation. The models appear to simulate the appropriate seasonal climates in the northern tier of states. However, the spatial extent of these regions is distorted. None of the models accurately portrayed rainfall seasonalities in the southern tier of states, where biomes are primarily influenced by the Bermuda High.

Semiempirical down-scaling of GCM output to the local scale for temperature, precipitation, and runoff

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): An empirically derived multiple linear regression model is used to relate a local-scale dependent variable (either temperature, precipitation, or surface runoff) measured at individual gauging stations to six large-scale independent variables (temperature, precipitation, surface runoff, height to the 500-mbar pressure surface, and the zonal and meridional gradient across this surface). ...The area investigated is the western United States. ... The calibration data set is from 1948 through 1988 and includes data from 268 joint temperature and precipitation stations, 152 streamflow stations (which are converted to runoff data), and 24 gridded 500-mbar pressure height nodes.

Some perspectives on the late Quaternary paleoclimate of Beringia

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): Analyses of the modern summer synoptic climatology of Beringia illustrate that the region cannot be treated as a homogenous climatic unit as a result of different circulation controls that operate over the region. GCM (general circulation model) simulations and information from the modern synoptic climatology were used to infer the summer paleosynoptic climatology of the region since the last glacial maximum. ... Variations in these climatic controls offer important implications in assessing the vegetation histories of western Beringia versus eastern Beringia.