In search of climate effects on Atlantic Croaker (Micropogonias undulatus) stock off the U.S. Atlantic coast with Bayesian state-space biomass dynamic models

Atlantic Croaker (Micropogonias undulatus) production dynamics along the U.S. Atlantic coast are regulated by fishing and winter water temperature. Stakeholders for this resource have recommended investigating the effects of climate covariates in assessment models. This study used state-space biomass dynamic models without (model 1) and with (model 2) the minimum winter estuarine temperature (MWET) to examine MWET effects on Atlantic Croaker population dynamics during 1972–2008. In model 2, MWET was introduced into the intrinsic rate of population increase (r). For both models, a prior probability distribution (prior) was constructed for r or a scaling parameter (r0); imputs were the fishery removals, and fall biomass indices developed by using data from the Multispecies Bottom Trawl Survey of the Northeast Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, and the Coastal Trawl Survey of the Southeast Area Monitoring and Assessment Program. Model sensitivity runs incorporated a uniform (0.01,1.5) prior for r or r0 and bycatch data from the shrimp-trawl fishery. All model variants produced similar results and therefore supported the conclusion of low risk of overfishing for the Atlantic Croaker stock in the 2000s. However, the data statistically supported only model 1 and its configuration that included the shrimp-trawl fishery bycatch. The process errors of these models showed slightly positive and significant correlations with MWET, indicating that warmer winters would enhance Atlantic Croaker biomass production. Inconclusive, somewhat conflicting results indicate that biomass dynamic models should not integrate MWET, pending, perhaps, accumulation of longer time series of the variables controlling the production dynamics of Atlantic Croaker, preferably including winter-induced estimates of Atlantic Croaker kills.

From organism to population: the role of life-history theory

The role of life-history theory in population and evolutionary analyses is outlined. In both cases general life histories can be analysed, but simpler life histories need fewer parameters for their description. The simplest case, of semelparous (breed-once-then-die) organisms, needs only three parameters: somatic growth rate, mortality rate and fecundity. This case is analysed in detail. If fecundity is fixed, population growth rate can be calculated direct from mortality rate and somatic growth rate, and isoclines on which population growth rate is constant can be drawn in a ”state space” with axes for mortality rate and somatic growth rate. In this space density-dependence is likely to result in a population trajectory from low density, when mortality rate is low and somatic growth rate is high and the population increases (positive population growth rate) to high density, after which the process reverses to return to low density. Possible effects of pollution on this system are discussed. The state-space approach allows direct population analysis of the twin effects of pollution and density on population growth rate. Evolutionary analysis uses related methods to identify likely evolutionary outcomes when an organism's genetic options are subject to trade-offs. The trade-off considered here is between somatic growth rate and mortality rate. Such a trade-off could arise because of an energy allocation trade-off if resources spent on personal defence (reducing mortality rate) are not available for somatic growth rate. The evolutionary implications of pollution acting on such a trade-off are outlined.

Aquaculture in Jamaica

Jamaica, with its overfish marine resources, has become a major tilapia producer in Latin America led by a small number of large farms practicing tilapia culture with considerable commercial success. Across the country, however, aquaculture is typically practiced by a large number of small-scale fish farmers who own less than 1.0 ha of land. Production is constrained by lack of credit, finite land space and suitable soil type, but larger existing aquaculturists are expanding further for overseas markets. Inspired by pioneering tilapia fish culture demonstration projects funded by the USAID and the goverment of Jamaica, fish culture production rose from a few hundred kg of Oreochromis niloticus in 1977, to about 5000 t of processed fish mainly red hybrid tilapia, in 2000. Most of this quantity was exported to Europe and North America.

Long-term and seasonal patterns in coastal temperature and salinity along the North American west coast

Numerous integrated time series have been assembled that suggest global temperature has been increasing steadily over the last century. ... However, superimposed on the long-term warming trends of these series are decadal-scale fluctuations, periods of slightly increasing and even decreasing temperature followed by rapid increases in temperature. ... In this pilot study, data for 1931-1990 from eight [western North America] coastal stations are examined to test the utility of a state-space statistical model (developed by Dr. Roy Mendelssohn, PFEG) in separating and describing seasonal patterns and long-term trends.

Looking for safe harbor in a crowded sea: Coastal space use conflict and marine renewable energy development

Technological advances in the marine renewable energy industry and increased clarity about the leasing and licensing process are fostering development proposals in both state and federal waters. The ocean is becoming more industrialized and competition among all marine space users is developing (Buck et al. 2004). More spatial competition can lead to conflict between ocean users themselves, and to tensions that spill over to include other stakeholders and the general public (McGrath 2004). Such conflict can wind up in litigation, which is costly and takes agency time and financial resources away from other priorities. As proposals for marine renewable energy developments are evaluated, too often decision-makers lack the tools and information to properly account for the cumulative effects and the tradeoffs associated with alternative human uses of the ocean. This paper highlights the nature of marine space conflicts associated with marine renewable energy literature highlights key issues for the growth of the marine renewable energy sector in the United States. (PDF contains 4 pages)

Marine spatial planning approaches at the state level: Similarities and differences between MSP efforts across the country

Competing uses, sensitive and valuable marine resources, and overlapping jurisdictions complicate management decision making in the marine environment. States are developing marine spatial planning capacity to help make better decisions, particularly as demand for ocean space and resources is growing because of emerging human uses (renewable energy, aquaculture) and traditional human uses (commercial fishing, commerce). This paper offers perspectives on marine spatial planning efforts being carried out in four states across the US, and demonstrates similarities and differences between them. The approach to marine spatial planning in each state is discussed with specific attention given to issues such as what is driving the effort, data availability, maturity of the effort, and level of resources devoted to it. Highlighting the similarities and differences illustrates state and region specific challenges and the approaches being used to meet them. (PDF contains 4 pages)

Technical and mapping support for marine spatial planning: Final report

Washington depends on a healthy coastal and marine ecosystem to maintain a thriving economy and vibrant communities. These ecosystems support critical habitats for wildlife and a growing number of often competing ocean activities, such as fishing, transportation, aquaculture, recreation, and energy production. Planners, policy makers and resource managers are being challenged to sustainably balance ocean uses, and environmental conservation in a finite space and with limited information. This balancing act can be supported by spatial planning. Marine spatial planning (MSP) is a planning process that enables integrated, forward looking, and consistent decision making on the human uses of the oceans and coasts. It can improve marine resource management by planning for human uses in locations that reduce conflict, increase certainty, and support a balance among social, economic, and ecological benefits we receive from ocean resources. In March 2010, the Washington state legislature enacted a marine spatial planning law (RCW §43.372) to address resource use conflicts in Washington waters. In 2011, a report to the legislature and a workshop on human use data provided guidance for the marine spatial planning process. The report outlines a set of recommendations for the State to effectively undertake marine spatial planning and this work plan will support some of these recommendations, such as: federal integration, regional coordination, developing mechanisms to integrate scientific and technical expertise, developing data standards, and accessing and sharing spatial data. In 2012 the Governor amended the existing law to focus funding on mapping and ecosystem assessments for Washington’s Pacific coast and the legislature provided $2.1 million in funds to begin marine spatial planning off Washington’s coast. The funds are appropriated through the Washington Department of Natural Resources Marine Resources Stewardship Account with coordination among the State Ocean Caucus, the four Coastal Treaty Tribes, four coastal Marine Resource Committees and the newly formed stakeholder body, the Washington Coastal Marine Advisory Council.