Stock assessment of protogynous fish: evaluating measures of spawning biomass used to estimate biological reference points

In stock assessments, recruitment is typically modeled as a function of females only. For protogynous stocks, however, disproportionate fishing on males increases the possibility of reduced fertilization rates. To incorporate the importance of males in protogynous stocks, assessment models have been used to predict recruitment not just from female spawning biomass (Sf), but also from that of males (Sm) or both sexes (Sb). We conducted a simulation study to evaluate the ability of these three measures to estimate biological reference points used in fishery management. Of the three, Sf provides best estimates if the potential for decreased fertilization is weak, whereas Sm is best only if the potential is very strong. In general, Sb estimates the true reference points most closely, which indicates that if the potential for decreased fertilization is moderate or unknown, Sb should be used in assessments of protogynous stocks. Moreover, for a broad range of scenarios, relative errors from Sf and Sb occur in opposite directions, indicating that estimates from these measures could be used to bound uncertainty.

Use of biological reference points for the conservation of atlantic salmon (Salmo salar L.)in the River Lune, North West England.

This paper deals with the development and use of biological reference points for salmon conservation on the River Lune, England. The Lune supports recreational and net fisheries with annual catches in the region of 1,000 and 1356 salmon respectively. Using models transported from other river systems, biological reference points exclusive to the Lune were developed; specifically the number of eggs deposited and carrying capacity estimates for age 0+ and 1+ parr. The conservation limit was estimated at 11.9 million eggs and between 1989 and 1998 was exceeded in two years. Comparison of juvenile salmon densities in 1991 and 1997 with estimates of carrying capacity indicated that 0+ and 1+ parr densities were at around 60 % of carrying capacity and may relate to the number of eggs deposited in 1990 and 1996 being approximately 70% of the target value. The paper discusses the management actions taken in order to ensure that the management target of the conservation limit being met four years out of five is delivered. It also discusses the balance between conservation and exploitation and the socio-economic decisions made in order to ensure parity of impacts on the rod and net fisheries. The regulations have been enforced since 1999 and the paper concludes with an assessment of the actions taken to deliver the management targets, over the last five years.

Multiple stable reference points in oyster populations: biological relationships for the eastern oyster (Crassostrea virginica) in Delaware Bay

Abstract—In the first of two companion papers, a 54-yr time series for the oyster population in the New Jersey waters of Delaware Bay was analyzed to develop biological relationships necessary to evaluate maximum sustainable yield (MSY) reference points and to consider how multiple stable points affect reference point-based management. The time series encompassed two regime shifts, one circa 1970 that ushered in a 15-yr period of high abundance, and a second in 1985 that ushered in a 20-yr period of low abundance. The intervening and succeeding periods have the attributes of alternate stable states. The biological relationships between abundance, recruitment, and mortality were unusual in four ways. First, the broodstock–recruitment relationship at low abundance may have been driven more by the provision of settlement sites for larvae by the adults than by fecundity. Second, the natural mortality rate was temporally unstable and bore a nonlinear relationship to abundance. Third, combined high abundance and low mortality, though likely requiring favorable environmental conditions, seemed also to be a self-reinforcing phenomenon. As a consequence, the abundance –mortality relationship exhibited both compensatory and depensatory components. Fourth, the geographic distribution of the stock was intertwined with abundance and mortality, such that interrelationships were functions both of spatial organization and inherent populatio

Multiple stable reference points in oyster populations: implications for reference point-based management

In the second of two companion articles, a 54-year time series for the oyster population in the New Jersey waters of Delaware Bay is analyzed to examine how the presence of multiple stable states affects reference-point–based management. Multiple stable states are described by four types of reference points. Type I is the carrying capacity for the stable state: each has associated with it a type-II reference point wherein surplus production reaches a local maximum. Type-II reference points are separated by an intermediate surplus production low (type III). Two stable states establish a type-IV reference point, a point-of-no-return that impedes recovery to the higher stable state. The type-II to type-III differential in surplus production is a measure of the difficulty of rebuilding the population and the sensitivity of the population to collapse at high abundance. Surplus production projections show that the abundances defining the four types of reference points are relatively stable over a wide range of uncertainties in recruitment and mortality rates. The surplus production values associated with type-II and type-III reference points are much more uncertain. Thus, biomass goals are more easily established than fishing mortality rates for oyster population

Biological reference points for managing kingfish, Scomberomorus commerson, in Oman

The 1987-1995 length composition of quarterly catches of Scomberomorus commerson (Lacepede 1800) was analyzed to determine various biological reference points for management purposes. These include: fishing mortality producing maximum yield-per-recruit in weight (F sub(max)), fishing mortality producing 50% relative mean mature biomass (F sub(50)), and fishing mortality producing recruits that would exactly replace their parent stock (F sub(rep)). F sub(max) provided misleading suggestions to increase fishing mortality on the stock which is currently at a low level. On the other hand, both F sub(50) and F sub(rep) provided acceptable results, suggesting reduction on the current fishing mortality by 17-40%.

Report of the Study Group on “Ecosystem-Based Management Science and its application to the North Pacific”

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY INTRODUCTION OVERVIEW OF INTERNATIONAL EBM HISTORY References CANADA Overview Activities to date Integrated Management implementation in Canada Objectives, indicators and reference points Assessment approaches Research directions for the future Management directions for the future References JAPAN Overview Conservation and sustainable use of marine living resources Harvest control by TAC system Stock Recovery Plan and effort regulation system Stock enhancement by hatchery-produced juvenile release Conservation and sustainable develop-ment on coastal waters The implementation of ecosystem-based management PEOPLE’S REPUBLIC OF CHINA Overview Current actions Output control Input control Summer fishing ban Enhance ecosystem health REPUBLIC OF KOREA Initiatives and actions of ecosystem-based management in Korea Current ecosystem-based management initiatives in Korea Precautionary TAC-based fishery management Closed fishing season/areas Fish size- and sex-controls Fishing gear design restrictions Marine protected areas (MPA) RUSSIA Existing and anticipated ecosystem-based management initiatives Issues related to the implementation of ecosystem-based management UNITED STATES OF AMERICA Definitions and approaches to ecosystem-based fishery management in the United States Present U.S. legislative mandates relating to ecosystem-based fishery management Target species Bycatch species Threatened or endangered species Habitats Food webs Ecosystems Integration of legislative mandates into an ecosystem approach Scientific issues in implementing ecosystem-based approaches References DISCUSSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS APPENDICES Appendix 10.1 Study group membership and participants Appendix 10.2 Terminology definitions Appendix 10.3 Present state of implementing ecosystem-based fishery management in Alaska: Alaska groundfish fisheries Appendix 10.4 Present state of implementing ecosystem-based fishery management off the West Coast of the United States: Pacific Coast groundfish fisheries Appendix 10.5 Descriptions of multi-species and ecosystem models developed or under development in the U.S. North Pacific region that might be used to predict effects of fishing on ecosystems Appendix 10.6 A potential standard reporting format (developed by Australia, and currently being used by the U.S.A in their contribution to this report) (83 page document)

Population characteristics of gulf menhaden, Brevoortia patronus

The status of the Gulf menhaden, Brevoortia patronus, fishery was assessed with purse-seine landings data from 1946 to 1997 and port sampling data from 1964 to 1997. These data were analyzed to determine growth rates, biological reference points for fi shing mortality from yield per recruit and maximum spawning potential analyses, spawner-recruit relationships, and maximum sustainable yield (MSY). The separable virtual population approach was used for the period 1976–97 (augmented by earlier analyses for 1964–75) to obtain point estimates of stock size, recruits to age 1, spawning stock size, and fishing mortality rates. Exploitation rates for age-1 fi sh ranged between 11% and 45%, for age-2 fi sh between 32% and 72%, and for age-3 fi sh between 32% and 76%. Biological reference points from yield per recruit (F0.1: 1.5–2.5/yr) and spawning potential ratio (F20: 1.3–1.9/yr and F30: 0.8–1.2/yr) were obtained for comparison with recent estimates of F (0.6–0.8/yr). Recent spawning stock estimates (as biomass or eggs) are above the long-term average, while recent recruits to age 1 are comparable to the long-term average. Parameters from Ricker-type spawner-recruit relations were estimated, although considerable unexplained variability remained. Recent survival to age-1 recruitment has generally been below that expected based on the Ricker spawner-recruit relation. Estimates of long-term MSY from PRODFIT and ASPIC estimation of production model ranged between 717,000 t and 753,000 t, respectively. Declines in landings between 1988 and 1992 raised concerns about the status of the Gulf menhaden stock. Landings have fl uctuated without trend since 1992, averaging about 571,000 t. However, Gulf menhaden are short lived and highly fecund. Thus, variation in recruitment to age 1, largely mediated by environmental conditions, infl uences fi shing success over the next two years (as age-1 and age-2 fi sh). Comparisons of recent estimates of fi shing mortality to biological reference points do not suggest overfishing. (PDF file contains 22 pages.)

Population Characteristics of Gulf Menhaden, Brevoortia patronus

The status of the gulf menhaden, Brevoortia patronus, fishery was assessed with purseseine landing data from 1946 to 1992 and port sampling data from 1964 to 1992. These data were analyzed to determine growth rates, biological reference points for fishing mortality from yield per recruit and maximum spawning potential analyses, spawner-recruit relationships, and maximum sustainable yield (MSY). Virtual population approaches were used to obtain point estimates of stock size, recruits to age I, spawning stock size, and fishing mortality rates. Exploitation rates ranged between 14% and 45% for age-1 fish, between 30% and 72% for age-2 fish, and between 36% and 71% for age-3 fish. Biological reference points from yield per recruit (FO. I: 0.7-0.9 yr-1) and maximum spawning potential (F20: 1.62.9 yr-l and F30: 1.0-2.1 yr-1) were obtained for comparison with recent estimates of F (0.4-0.8 yr-l). Parameters from Ricker-type spawner-recruit relations were estimated, although considerable unexplained variability remained. Estimates of long-term MSY from fits of the generalized production model ranged between 664,000 metric tons (t) and 897,000 t. Declines in landings since 1988 have raised concerns about the status of the gulf menhaden stock. However, gulf menhaden are short lived and highly fecund. Thus, variation in recruitment to age 1 largely mediated by environmental conditions influences fishing success over the next two years (as age-1 and age-2 fish). Comparisons of recent estimates of fishing mortality to biological reference points do not suggest overfishing. (PDF file contains 26 pages.)

Die Fischereiressourcen im Hinblick auf deutsche Interessen

The North-European fish stocks are assessed annually by ICES working groups. The results are evaluated twice annually in two meetings of the Advisory Committee for Fisheries Management (ACFM) at ICES. Based on the working group assessments, ACFM formulates an advice for the fisheries management and suggests a total allowable catch (TAC) which is based strictly on biological grounds. The summaries of the state of some selected stocks which are given here, are derived from the ACFM advice, formulated during the most recent October 1999 meeting. For many of the fish stocks the precautionary approach has been implemented now, and for most of them the target reference points have been defined. As a result, most of the stocks are outside safe biological limits or are harvested in disaccordance with the precautionary approach. Only 10 stocks of those evaluated during this autumn meeting were found to be within safe biological limits.

Lage und Entwicklung der Fischereiressources in Hinblick auf deutsche Fischereiinteressen

The northern European fish stocks are assessed annually by ICES working groups. The results are evaluated biannually in two meetings of the Advisory Committee for Fisheries Management (ACFM) at ICES. Based on the working group assessments, ACFM formulates an advice for fisheries management and suggests a total allowable catch (TAC) which is based strictly on biological grounds. The summaries of the state of some selected stocks which are given here, are derived from the ACFM advice, formulated during the most recent May 1998 meeting. For many of the fish stocks the precautionary approach is still in the process of implementation, and only for some of them the management and target reference points have been fully defined.

Lage und Entwicklung der Fischereiressourcen im Hinblick auf deutsche Fischereiinteressen: Neuste Bestandsabschätzung des ACFM

The North European fish stocks are assessed annually by ICES working groups. The results are evaluated biannually in two meetings of the Advisory Committee for Fisheries Management (ACFM) at ICES. Based on the working group assessments, ACFM formulates an advice for fisheries management and suggests a total allowable catch (TAC) which is based strictly on biological grounds. The summaries of the state of some selected stocks which are given here, are derived from the ACFM advice, formulated during the most recent Oktober 1998 meeting. For many of the fish stocks the precautionary approach is still in the process of implementation, however for most of them the management and target reference points have been fully defined by now.

Der Vorsorgeansatz im Fischereimanagement

Since 1988 the ‘Precautionary Principle’ for human activities in the global environment has rapidly gained recognition in UN conferences (especially UNCED, Rio de Janeiro, 1992). For fisheries the UN Agreement on the Conservation and Management of Straddling Fish Stocks and Highly Migratory Fish Stocks was a milestone for the implementation of the Precautionary Approach to fisheries management. The International Council for the Exploration of the Seas (ICES) and the Scientific Council of NAFO (Northwest Atlantic Fisheries Organisation) were requested to implement the Precautionary Approach in the advice for fisheries management. The ICES concept for implementation consists of stock specific biological and management reference points, harvest control rules and recovery plans in case of overfished stocks. The NAFO concept is similar.

Design of a Recreational Fishing Survey and Mark-Recapture Study for the Blue Crab, Callinectes sapidus, in Chesapeake Bay

The development of bay wide estimates of recreational harvest has been identified as a high priority by the Chesapeake Bay Scientific Advisory Committee (CBSAC) and by the Chesapeake Bay Program as reflected in the Chesapeake Bay Blue Crab Fishery Management Plan (Chesapeake Bay Program 1996). In addition, the BiState Blue Crab Commission (BBCAC), formed in 1996 by mandate from the legislatures of Maryland and Virginia to advise on crab management, has also recognized the importance of estimating the levels and trends in catches in the recreational fishery. Recently, the BBCAC has adopted limit and target biological reference points. These analyses have been predicated on assumptions regarding the relative magnitude of the recreational and commercial catch. The reference points depend on determination of the total number of crabs removed from the population. In essence, the number removed by the various fishery sectors, represents a minimum estimate of the population size. If a major fishery sector is not represented, the total population will be accordingly underestimated. If the relative contribution of the unrepresented sector is constant over time and harvests the same components of the population as the other sectors, it may be argued that the population estimate derived from the other sectors is biased but still adequately represents trends in population size over time. If either of the two constraints mentioned above is not met, the validity of relative trends over time is suspect. With the recent increases in the human population in the Chesapeake Bay watershed, there is reason to be concerned that the recreational catch may not have been a constant proportion of the total harvest over time. It is important to assess the catch characteristics and the magnitude of the recreational fishery to evaluate this potential bias. (PDF contains 70 pages)

A-SCALA: an age-structured statistical catch-at-length analysis for assessing tuna stocks in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean

English: We describe an age-structured statistical catch-at-length analysis (A-SCALA) based on the MULTIFAN-CL model of Fournier et al. (1998). The analysis is applied independently to both the yellowfin and the bigeye tuna populations of the eastern Pacific Ocean (EPO). We model the populations from 1975 to 1999, based on quarterly time steps. Only a single stock for each species is assumed for each analysis, but multiple fisheries that are spatially separate are modeled to allow for spatial differences in catchability and selectivity. The analysis allows for error in the effort-fishing mortality relationship, temporal trends in catchability, temporal variation in recruitment, relationships between the environment and recruitment and between the environment and catchability, and differences in selectivity and catchability among fisheries. The model is fit to total catch data and proportional catch-at-length data conditioned on effort. The A-SCALA method is a statistical approach, and therefore recognizes that the data collected from the fishery do not perfectly represent the population. Also, there is uncertainty in our knowledge about the dynamics of the system and uncertainty about how the observed data relate to the real population. The use of likelihood functions allow us to model the uncertainty in the data collected from the population, and the inclusion of estimable process error allows us to model the uncertainties in the dynamics of the system. The statistical approach allows for the calculation of confidence intervals and the testing of hypotheses. We use a Bayesian version of the maximum likelihood framework that includes distributional constraints on temporal variation in recruitment, the effort-fishing mortality relationship, and catchability. Curvature penalties for selectivity parameters and penalties on extreme fishing mortality rates are also included in the objective function. The mode of the joint posterior distribution is used as an estimate of the model parameters. Confidence intervals are calculated using the normal approximation method. It should be noted that the estimation method includes constraints and priors and therefore the confidence intervals are different from traditionally calculated confidence intervals. Management reference points are calculated, and forward projections are carried out to provide advice for making management decisions for the yellowfin and bigeye populations. Spanish: Describimos un análisis estadístico de captura a talla estructurado por edad, A-SCALA (del inglés age-structured statistical catch-at-length analysis), basado en el modelo MULTIFAN- CL de Fournier et al. (1998). Se aplica el análisis independientemente a las poblaciones de atunes aleta amarilla y patudo del Océano Pacífico oriental (OPO). Modelamos las poblaciones de 1975 a 1999, en pasos trimestrales. Se supone solamente una sola población para cada especie para cada análisis, pero se modelan pesquerías múltiples espacialmente separadas para tomar en cuenta diferencias espaciales en la capturabilidad y selectividad. El análisis toma en cuenta error en la relación esfuerzo-mortalidad por pesca, tendencias temporales en la capturabilidad, variación temporal en el reclutamiento, relaciones entre el medio ambiente y el reclutamiento y entre el medio ambiente y la capturabilidad, y diferencias en selectividad y capturabilidad entre pesquerías. Se ajusta el modelo a datos de captura total y a datos de captura a talla proporcional condicionados sobre esfuerzo. El método A-SCALA es un enfoque estadístico, y reconoce por lo tanto que los datos obtenidos de la pesca no representan la población perfectamente. Además, hay incertidumbre en nuestros conocimientos de la dinámica del sistema e incertidumbre sobre la relación entre los datos observados y la población real. El uso de funciones de verosimilitud nos permite modelar la incertidumbre en los datos obtenidos de la población, y la inclusión de un error de proceso estimable nos permite modelar las incertidumbres en la dinámica del sistema. El enfoque estadístico permite calcular intervalos de confianza y comprobar hipótesis. Usamos una versión bayesiana del marco de verosimilitud máxima que incluye constreñimientos distribucionales sobre la variación temporal en el reclutamiento, la relación esfuerzo-mortalidad por pesca, y la capturabilidad. Se incluyen también en la función objetivo penalidades por curvatura para los parámetros de selectividad y penalidades por tasas extremas de mortalidad por pesca. Se usa la moda de la distribución posterior conjunta como estimación de los parámetros del modelo. Se calculan los intervalos de confianza usando el método de aproximación normal. Cabe destacar que el método de estimación incluye constreñimientos y distribuciones previas y por lo tanto los intervalos de confianza son diferentes de los intervalos de confianza calculados de forma tradicional. Se calculan puntos de referencia para el ordenamiento, y se realizan proyecciones a futuro para asesorar la toma de decisiones para el ordenamiento de las poblaciones de aleta amarilla y patudo.

A meta-analytic approach to quantifying scientific uncertainty in stock assessments

Quantifying scientific uncertainty when setting total allowable catch limits for fish stocks is a major challenge, but it is a requirement in the United States since changes to national fisheries legislation. Multiple sources of error are readily identifiable, including estimation error, model specification error, forecast error, and errors associated with the definition and estimation of reference points. Our focus here, however, is to quantify the influence of estimation error and model specification error on assessment outcomes. These are fundamental sources of uncertainty in developing scientific advice concerning appropriate catch levels and although a study of these two factors may not be inclusive, it is feasible with available information. For data-rich stock assessments conducted on the U.S. west coast we report approximate coefficients of variation in terminal biomass estimates from assessments based on inversion of the assessment of the model’s Hessian matrix (i.e., the asymptotic standard error). To summarize variation “among” stock assessments, as a proxy for model specification error, we characterize variation among multiple historical assessments of the same stock. Results indicate that for 17 groundfish and coastal pelagic species, the mean coefficient of variation of terminal biomass is 18%. In contrast, the coefficient of variation ascribable to model specification error (i.e., pooled among-assessment variation) is 37%. We show that if a precautionary probability of overfishing equal to 0.40 is adopted by managers, and only model specification error is considered, a 9% reduction in the overfishing catch level is indicated.