PICES-GLOBEC International Program on Climate Change and Carrying Capacity: Summary of the 1998 MODEL, MONITOR and REX Workshops, and Task Team Reports.

This volume summarizes the results of three workshops organized by the PICES-GLOBEC Climate Change and Carrying Capacity Program that were held just prior to the PICES Seventh Annual Meeting in Fairbanks, Alaska, in October 1998. These workshops represent the efforts of the REX, MODEL, and MONITOR Task Teams to integrate the results of national GLOBEC and GLOBEC-like programs to arrive at a better understanding of the ways in which climate change affects North Pacific ecosystems. (PDF contains 91 pages)

WEMo (Wave Exposure Model): Formulation, Procedures and Validation

This report describes the working of National Centers for Coastal Ocean Service (NCCOS) Wave Exposure Model (WEMo) capable of predicting the exposure of a site in estuarine and closed water to local wind generated waves. WEMo works in two different modes: the Representative Wave Energy (RWE) mode calculates the exposure using physical parameters like wave energy and wave height, while the Relative Exposure Index (REI) empirically calculates exposure as a unitless index. Detailed working of the model in both modes and their procedures are described along with a few sample runs. WEMo model output in RWE mode (wave height and wave energy) is compared against data collected from wave sensors near Harkers Island, North Carolina for validation purposes. Computed results agreed well with the wave sensors data indicating that WEMo can be an effective tool in predicting local wave energy in closed estuarine environments. (PDF contains 31 pages)

Using wildlife activity and antibiotic resistance analysis to model bacterial water quality in coastal ponds

Models that help predict fecal coliform bacteria (FCB) levels in environmental waters can be important tools for resource managers. In this study, we used animal activity along with antibiotic resistance analysis (ARA), land cover, and other variables to build models that predict bacteria levels in coastal ponds that discharge into an estuary. Photographic wildlife monitoring was used to estimate terrestrial and aquatic wildlife activity prior to sampling. Increased duck activity was an important predictor of increased FCB in coastal ponds. Terrestrial animals like deer and raccoon, although abundant, were not significant in our model. Various land cover types, rainfall, tide, solar irradiation, air temperature, and season parameters, in combination with duck activity, were significant predictors of increased FCB. It appears that tidal ponds allow for settling of bacteria under most conditions. We propose that these models can be used to test different development styles and wildlife management techniques to reduce bacterial loading into downstream shellfish harvesting and contact recreation areas.

Application of a wind-driven barotropic model to simulate the seasonal circulation of the northern Arabian Sea

A two dimensional numerical barotropic model based on the depth-integrated equations is presented here. Sensitivity of the model is analyzed by using wind stresses of different months. Real wind data and actual bathymetry are used as an input to obtain the circulation patterns of the northern Arabian Sea during specific seasons. However, the model is also tested with constant depth for comparison. A number of numerical simulations are performed to study the combined effects of wind stress, bathymetry and basin geometry. Since the goal of this study is to simulate the circulation of the northern Arabian sea in accordance with the observed wind stress, therefore, wind stresses of different months like July (the peak os SW monsoon), October (the transition period from SW to NE monsoon), January (the peack of NE monsoon) and April (the transition period from NE to SW monsoon) are used to examine the circulation patterns. The results obtained are satisfactory in that they resemble known patterns.