12 resultados para Error in essence

em Aquatic Commons


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We have formulated a model for analyzing the measurement error in marine survey abundance estimates by using data from parallel surveys (trawl haul or acoustic measurement). The measurement error is defined as the component of the variability that cannot be explained by covariates such as temperature, depth, bottom type, etc. The method presented is general, but we concentrate on bottom trawl catches of cod (Gadus morhua). Catches of cod from 10 parallel trawling experiments in the Barents Sea with a total of 130 paired hauls were used to estimate the measurement error in trawl hauls. Based on the experimental data, the measurement error is fairly constant in size on the logarithmic scale and is independent of location, time, and fish density. Compared with the total variability of the winter and autumn surveys in the Barents Sea, the measurement error is small (approximately 2–5%, on the log scale, in terms of variance of catch per towed distance). Thus, the cod catch rate is a fairly precise measure of fish density at a given site at a given time.

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The development of bay wide estimates of recreational harvest has been identified as a high priority by the Chesapeake Bay Scientific Advisory Committee (CBSAC) and by the Chesapeake Bay Program as reflected in the Chesapeake Bay Blue Crab Fishery Management Plan (Chesapeake Bay Program 1996). In addition, the BiState Blue Crab Commission (BBCAC), formed in 1996 by mandate from the legislatures of Maryland and Virginia to advise on crab management, has also recognized the importance of estimating the levels and trends in catches in the recreational fishery. Recently, the BBCAC has adopted limit and target biological reference points. These analyses have been predicated on assumptions regarding the relative magnitude of the recreational and commercial catch. The reference points depend on determination of the total number of crabs removed from the population. In essence, the number removed by the various fishery sectors, represents a minimum estimate of the population size. If a major fishery sector is not represented, the total population will be accordingly underestimated. If the relative contribution of the unrepresented sector is constant over time and harvests the same components of the population as the other sectors, it may be argued that the population estimate derived from the other sectors is biased but still adequately represents trends in population size over time. If either of the two constraints mentioned above is not met, the validity of relative trends over time is suspect. With the recent increases in the human population in the Chesapeake Bay watershed, there is reason to be concerned that the recreational catch may not have been a constant proportion of the total harvest over time. It is important to assess the catch characteristics and the magnitude of the recreational fishery to evaluate this potential bias. (PDF contains 70 pages)

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English: We describe an age-structured statistical catch-at-length analysis (A-SCALA) based on the MULTIFAN-CL model of Fournier et al. (1998). The analysis is applied independently to both the yellowfin and the bigeye tuna populations of the eastern Pacific Ocean (EPO). We model the populations from 1975 to 1999, based on quarterly time steps. Only a single stock for each species is assumed for each analysis, but multiple fisheries that are spatially separate are modeled to allow for spatial differences in catchability and selectivity. The analysis allows for error in the effort-fishing mortality relationship, temporal trends in catchability, temporal variation in recruitment, relationships between the environment and recruitment and between the environment and catchability, and differences in selectivity and catchability among fisheries. The model is fit to total catch data and proportional catch-at-length data conditioned on effort. The A-SCALA method is a statistical approach, and therefore recognizes that the data collected from the fishery do not perfectly represent the population. Also, there is uncertainty in our knowledge about the dynamics of the system and uncertainty about how the observed data relate to the real population. The use of likelihood functions allow us to model the uncertainty in the data collected from the population, and the inclusion of estimable process error allows us to model the uncertainties in the dynamics of the system. The statistical approach allows for the calculation of confidence intervals and the testing of hypotheses. We use a Bayesian version of the maximum likelihood framework that includes distributional constraints on temporal variation in recruitment, the effort-fishing mortality relationship, and catchability. Curvature penalties for selectivity parameters and penalties on extreme fishing mortality rates are also included in the objective function. The mode of the joint posterior distribution is used as an estimate of the model parameters. Confidence intervals are calculated using the normal approximation method. It should be noted that the estimation method includes constraints and priors and therefore the confidence intervals are different from traditionally calculated confidence intervals. Management reference points are calculated, and forward projections are carried out to provide advice for making management decisions for the yellowfin and bigeye populations. Spanish: Describimos un análisis estadístico de captura a talla estructurado por edad, A-SCALA (del inglés age-structured statistical catch-at-length analysis), basado en el modelo MULTIFAN- CL de Fournier et al. (1998). Se aplica el análisis independientemente a las poblaciones de atunes aleta amarilla y patudo del Océano Pacífico oriental (OPO). Modelamos las poblaciones de 1975 a 1999, en pasos trimestrales. Se supone solamente una sola población para cada especie para cada análisis, pero se modelan pesquerías múltiples espacialmente separadas para tomar en cuenta diferencias espaciales en la capturabilidad y selectividad. El análisis toma en cuenta error en la relación esfuerzo-mortalidad por pesca, tendencias temporales en la capturabilidad, variación temporal en el reclutamiento, relaciones entre el medio ambiente y el reclutamiento y entre el medio ambiente y la capturabilidad, y diferencias en selectividad y capturabilidad entre pesquerías. Se ajusta el modelo a datos de captura total y a datos de captura a talla proporcional condicionados sobre esfuerzo. El método A-SCALA es un enfoque estadístico, y reconoce por lo tanto que los datos obtenidos de la pesca no representan la población perfectamente. Además, hay incertidumbre en nuestros conocimientos de la dinámica del sistema e incertidumbre sobre la relación entre los datos observados y la población real. El uso de funciones de verosimilitud nos permite modelar la incertidumbre en los datos obtenidos de la población, y la inclusión de un error de proceso estimable nos permite modelar las incertidumbres en la dinámica del sistema. El enfoque estadístico permite calcular intervalos de confianza y comprobar hipótesis. Usamos una versión bayesiana del marco de verosimilitud máxima que incluye constreñimientos distribucionales sobre la variación temporal en el reclutamiento, la relación esfuerzo-mortalidad por pesca, y la capturabilidad. Se incluyen también en la función objetivo penalidades por curvatura para los parámetros de selectividad y penalidades por tasas extremas de mortalidad por pesca. Se usa la moda de la distribución posterior conjunta como estimación de los parámetros del modelo. Se calculan los intervalos de confianza usando el método de aproximación normal. Cabe destacar que el método de estimación incluye constreñimientos y distribuciones previas y por lo tanto los intervalos de confianza son diferentes de los intervalos de confianza calculados de forma tradicional. Se calculan puntos de referencia para el ordenamiento, y se realizan proyecciones a futuro para asesorar la toma de decisiones para el ordenamiento de las poblaciones de aleta amarilla y patudo.

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During the last century, the population of Pacific sardine (Sardinops sagax) in the California Current Ecosystem has exhibited large fluctuations in abundance and migration behavior. From approximately 1900 to 1940, the abundance of sardine reached 3.6 million metric tons and the “northern stock” migrated from offshore of California in the spring to the coastal areas near Oregon, Washington, and Vancouver Island in the summer. In the 1940s, the sardine stock collapsed and the few remaining sardine schools concentrated in the coastal region off southern California, year-round, for the next 50 years. The stock gradually recovered in the late 1980s and resumed its seasonal migration between regions off southern California and Canada. Recently, a model was developed which predicts the potential habitat for the northern stock of Pacific sardine and its seasonal dynamics. The habitat predictions were successfully validated using data from sardine surveys using the daily egg production method; scientific trawl surveys off the Columbia River mouth; and commercial sardine landings off Oregon, Washington, and Vancouver Island. Here, the predictions of the potential habitat and seasonal migration of the northern stock of sardine are validated using data from “acoustic–trawl” surveys of the entire west coast of the United States during the spring and summer of 2008. The estimates of sardine biomass and lengths from the two surveys are not significantly different between spring and summer, indicating that they are representative of the entire stock. The results also confirm that the model of potential sardine habitat can be used to optimally apply survey effort and thus minimize random and systematic sampling error in the biomass estimates. Furthermore, the acoustic–trawl survey data are useful to estimate concurrently the distributions and abundances of other pelagic fishes.

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We describe the application of two types of stereo camera systems in fisheries research, including the design, calibration, analysis techniques, and precision of the data obtained with these systems. The first is a stereo video system deployed by using a quick-responding winch with a live feed to provide species- and size- composition data adequate to produce acoustically based biomass estimates of rockfish. This system was tested on the eastern Bering Sea slope where rockfish were measured. Rockfish sizes were similar to those sampled with a bottom trawl and the relative error in multiple measurements of the same rockfish in multiple still-frame images was small. Measurement errors of up to 5.5% were found on a calibration target of known size. The second system consisted of a pair of still-image digital cameras mounted inside a midwater trawl. Processing of the stereo images allowed fish length, fish orientation in relation to the camera platform, and relative distance of the fish to the trawl netting to be determined. The video system was useful for surveying fish in Alaska, but it could also be used broadly in other situations where it is difficult to obtain species-composition or size-composition information. Likewise, the still-image system could be used for fisheries research to obtain data on size, position, and orientation of fish.

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Body length measurement is an important part of growth, condition, and mortality analyses of larval and juvenile fish. If the measurements are not accurate (i.e., do not reflect real fish length), results of subsequent analyses may be affected considerably (McGurk, 1985; Fey, 1999; Porter et al., 2001). The primary cause of error in fish length measurement is shrinkage related to collection and preservation (Theilacker, 1980; Hay, 1981; Butler, 1992; Fey, 1999). The magnitude of shrinkage depends on many factors, namely the duration and speed of the collection tow, abundance of other planktonic organisms in the sample (Theilacker, 1980; Hay, 1981; Jennings, 1991), the type and strength of the preservative (Hay, 1982), and the species of fish (Jennings, 1991; Fey, 1999). Further, fish size affects shrinkage (Fowler and Smith, 1983; Fey, 1999, 2001), indicating that live length should be modeled as a function of preserved length (Pepin et al., 1998; Fey, 1999).

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Seagrass ecosystems are protected under the federal "no-net-loss" policy for wetlands and form one of the most productive plant communities on the planet, performing important ecological functions. Seagrass beds have been recognized as a valuable resource critical to the health and function of coastal waters. Greater awareness and public education, however, is essential for conservation of this resource. Tremendous losses of this habitat have occurred as a result of development within the coastal zone. Disturbances usually kill seagrasses rapidly, and recovery is often comparatively slow. Mitigation to compensate for destruction of existing habitat usually follows when the agent of loss and responsible party are known. Compensation assumes that ecosystems can be made to order and, in essence, trades existing functional habitat for the promise of replacement habitat. While ~lant ingse agrass is not technically complex, there is no easy way to meet the goal of maintaining or increasing seagrass acreage. Rather, the entire process of planning, planting and monitoring requires attention to detail and does not lend itself to oversimplification.

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Biochemical techniques designed to compare species on the basis of protein differences were started by NUTTALL (1904) who used immunological methods to compare the serum of humans with that of other primates. Since then more refined techniques have led to better results at the protein level in taxonomy, The analyses of proteins are considered to be the simplest indirect approach to understanding the structure and function of the genetic material, deoxyribonucleic acid (DNA). Interest in these analyses arises because of the close relationship between protein structure and gene structure. Thus by comparing the properties of homologous proteins from different taxa one is in essence comparins their genes (GORMAN er al., 1971). It is now an established fact that genetic information coded in molecules of DNA is translated through a series of reactions in the structure of proteins which form the principal morphological units of the animal body at the molecular level of organization (SIBLEY, 1952). A convenient method of comparing molecular differences between species is to measure the electrophoretic mobility of proteins in a starch gel medium (ASPINWALL and TSUYUKI, 1968) or acrylamide gel (RAYMOND and WEINTRAUB, 1959; BOUCK and BALL, 1968). Proteins with enzymatic properties can be compared on the basis of catalytic activity in the presence or absence of inhibitors (KAPLAN et al., 1959); BAILEY et al., t 1970). A combination of gel electrophoresis and histochemical enzyme detection techniques (HUNTER and MARKERT, 1957) makes it possible to combine electrophoretic mobility anti catalytic activity comparison, Enzyme patterns exhibited in starch gel or acrylamide gel have been used to classify different species. BOUCK and BALL (1968)working with lactate dehydrogenase in species of Trout found that each Trout species had LDH pattern characterbtic of that species. ASPINIWALL and TSUYUKI (1968) used muscle protein electrophoretic patterns to identify hybrid fishes. TSUYUKI and ROBERTS (1963) and TSUYUKI et al. (1964-65) found that myogen protein patterns in fishes were species specific. The myogen patterns within one family were remarkably parallel with the existing morphometric classification and these patterns constituted a single criterion by which the fishes could be identified. The fish used in these investigations were collected from shallow waters (10 metres) of Lake Victoria in two areas, Jinja and Kisumu, using gillnets and beach-seines. The study included ten specimens of each of the following specIes: (l) Haplochromis michaeli (2) Haploehromis obems (3) Astatoreochromis ulluaudi (4) Tilapia zillii and (5) Tilapia nilotica.

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The aim of this communication is to briefly review nomenclature in the genus Callicorixa, describe the variation in the dark markings on the posterior legs of all four species, describe alternative diagnostic features, and provide a key to identification based on these alternative features. Attention is also drawn to a small error in FBA Scientific Publication 50 (Adults of the British aquatic Hemiptera Heteroptera: a key with ecological notes).

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Age, growth, and reproductive data were obtained from dolphinfish (Coryphaena hippurus, size range: 89 to 1451 mm fork length [FL]) collected between May 2002 and May 2004 off North Carolina. Annual increments from scales (n=541) and daily increments from sagittal otoliths (n=107) were examined; estimated von Bertalanffy parameters were L∞ (asymptotic length)=1299 mm FL and k (growth coefficient)=1.08/yr. Daily growth increments reduced much of the residual error in length-at-age estimates for age-0 dolphinfish; the estimated average growth rate was 3.78 mm/day during the first six months. Size at 50% maturity was slightly smaller for female (460 mm FL) than male (475 mm FL) dolphinfish. Based on monthly length-adjusted gonad weights, peak spawning occurs from April through July off North Carolina; back-calculated hatching dates from age-0 dolphinfish and prior reproductive studies on the east coast of Florida indicate that dolphinfish spawning occurs year round off the U.S. east coast and highest levels range from January through June. No major changes in length-at-age or size-at-maturity have occurred since the early 1960s, even after substantial increases in fishery landings.

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An assessment of the total biomass of shortbelly rockfish (Sebastes jordani) off the central California coast is presented that is based on a spatially extensive but temporally restricted ichthyoplankton survey conducted during the 1991 spawning season. Contemporaneous samples of adults were obtained by trawl sampling in the study region. Daily larval production (7.56 × 1010 larvae/d) and the larval mortality rate (Z=0.11/d) during the cruise were estimated from a larval “catch curve,” wherein the logarithm of total age-specific larval abundance was regressed against larval age. For this analysis, larval age compositions at each of the 150 sample sites were determined by examination of otolith microstructure from subsampled larvae (n=2203), which were weighted by the polygonal Sette-Ahlstrom area surrounding each station. Female population weight-specific fecundity was estimated through a life table analysis that incorporated sex-specific differences in adult growth rate, female maturity, fecundity, and natural mortality (M). The resulting statistic (102.17 larvae/g) was insensitive to errors in estimating M and to the pattern of recruitment. Together, the two analyses indicated that a total biomass equal to 1366 metric tons (t)/d of age-1+ shortbelly rockfish (sexes combined) was needed to account for the observed level of spawning output during the cruise. Given the long-term seasonal distribution of spawning activity in the study area, as elucidated from a retrospective examination of California Cooperative Oceanic Fisheries Investigation (CalCOFI) ichthyoplankton samples from 1952 to 1984, the “daily” total biomass was expanded to an annual total of 67,392 t. An attempt to account for all sources of error in the derivation of this estimate was made by application of the delta-method, which yielded a coefficient of variation of 19%. The relatively high precision of this larval production method, and the rapidity with which an absolute biomass estimate can be obtained, establishes that, for some species of rockfish (Sebastes spp.), it is an attractive alternative to traditional age-structured stock assessments.

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Variation at 13 microsatellite loci was previously surveyed in approximately 7400 chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) sampled from 50 localities in the Fraser River drainage in southern British Columbia. Evaluation of the utility of the microsatellite variation for population-specific stock identification applications indicated that the accuracy of the stock composition estimates generally improved with an increasing number of loci used in the estimation procedure, but an increase in accuracy was generally marginal after eight loci were used. With 10–14 populations in a simulated fishery sample, the mean error in population-specific estimated stock composition with a 50-popula-tion baseline was <1.4%. Identification of individuals to specific populations was highest for lower Fraser River and lower and North Thompson River populations; an average of 70% of the individual fish were correctly assigned to specific populations. The average error of the estimated percentage for the seven populations present in a coded-wire tag sample was 2% per population. Estimation of stock composition in the lower river commercial net fishery prior to June is of key local fishery management interest. Chinook salmon from the Chilcotin River and Nicola River drainages were important contributors to the early commercial fishery in the lower river because they comprised approximately 50% of the samples from the net fishery prior to mid April.