Modeling Environmental Stress

The word stress when applied to ecosystems is ambiguous. Stress may be low-level, with accompanying near-linear strain, or it may be of finite magnitude, with nonlinear response and possible disintegration of the system. Since there are practically no widely accepted definitions of ecosystem strain, classification of models of stressed systems is tenuous. Despite appearances, most ecosystem models seem to fall into the low-level linear response category. Although they sometimes simulate systems behavior well, they do not provide necessary and sufficient information about sudden structural changes nor structure after transition. Dynamic models of finiteamplitude response to stress are rare because of analytical difficulties. Some idea as to future transition states can be obtained by regarding the behavior of unperturbed functions under limiting strain conditions. Preliminary work shows that, since community variables do respond in a coherent manner to stress, macroscopic analyses of stressed ecosystems offer possible alternatives to compartmental models.

Assessment and monitoring of marine debris in Gray's Reef National Marine Sanctuary

Gray’s Reef National Marine Sanctuary (GRNMS) is located 32.4 km offshore of Sapelo Island, Georgia. The ecological importance of this area is related to the transition between tropical and temperate waters, and the existence of a topographically complex system of ledges. Due to its central location, GRNMS can be used as a focal site to study the accumulation and impacts of marine debris on the Atlantic continental shelf offshore of the Southeast United States. Previously, researchers characterized marine debris in GRNMS and reported that incidence of the debris at the limited densely colonized ledge sites was significantly greater than at sand or sparsely colonized live bottom, and is further influenced by the level of boating activity and physiographic characteristics (e.g., ledge height). Information gleaned from the initial marine debris characterization was used to devise a strategy for prioritizing cleanup and monitoring efforts. However, a significant gap in knowledge was the rate of debris accumulation. The primary objective of this study was to select, mark, and perform initial marine debris surveys at permanent monitoring sites within GRNMS to quantify long-term trends in types, abundance, impacts, and accumulation rates of debris. Ledge sites were selected to compare types, abundance, and accumulation rates of marine debris between a) areas of high and low use and b) short and tall ledges. Nine permanent monitoring sites were marked and initially surveyed in 2007/2008. Surveys were conducted within a 50 x 4 m transect for a total survey area of 200 square meters. All debris was removed and detailed information was taken on the types of debris, quantity, and associations with benthic fauna. Information on associations with benthic fauna included degree of entanglement, type of organism with which it is entangled or resting on, degree of fouling, and visible impacts such as tissue abrasions. Sites were re-surveyed approximately one year later to quantify new accumulation. During the initial survey, a total of ten debris items, totaling 16.3 kg in weight, were removed from two monitoring stations, both “tall” sites within the area of high boat use. Year-one accumulation totaled five items and approximately 7 kg in weight. Similar to the initial survey, all debris was found at sites in the area of high boat use. However, in contrast to the initial survey, two of these items were found on medium-height ledges. Removed items included fishing line, leaders, rope, plastic, and fabric. Although items were often encrusted in benthic biota or entangled on the ledge, impacts such as abrasions or other injuries were not observed. During the 2009 monitoring efforts, volunteer divers were trained to conduct the survey. Monitoring protocols were documented for GRNMS staff and included as an appendix of this report to enable long-term monitoring of sites. Additionally, national reconnaissance data (e.g. satellite, radar, aerial surveys) and other information on known fishing locations were examined for patterns of resource use and correlations with debris occurrence patterns. A previous model predicting the density of marine debris based on ledge features and boat use was refined and the results were used to generate a map of predicted debris density for all ledges.

Estimating long-term growth-rate changes of southern bluefin tuna (Thunnus maccoyii) from two periods of tag-return data

Southern bluefin tuna (SBT) (Thunnus maccoyii) growth rates are estimated from tag-return data associated with two time periods, the 1960s and 1980s. The traditional von Bertalanffy growth model (VBG) and a two-phase VBG model were fitted to the data by maximum likelihood. The traditional VBG model did not provide an adequate representation of growth in SBT, and the two-phase VBG yielded a significantly better fit. The results indicated that significant change occurs in the pattern of growth in relation to a VBG curve during the juvenile stages of the SBT life cycle, which may be related to the transition from a tightly schooling fish that spends substantial time in near and surface shore waters to one that is found primarily in more offshore and deeper waters. The results suggest that more complex growth models should be considered for other tunas and for other species that show a marked change in habitat use with age. The likelihood surface for the two-phase VBG model was found to be bimodal and some implications of this are investigated. Significant and substantial differences were found in the growth for fish spawned in the 1960s and in the 1980s, such that after age four there is a difference of about one year in the expected age of a fish of similar length which persists over the size range for which meaningful recapture data are available. This difference may be a density-dependent response as a consequence of the marked reduction in the SBT population. Given the key role that estimates of growth have in most stock assessments, the results indicate that there is a need both for the regular monitoring of growth rates and for provisions for changes in growth over time (possibly related to changes in abundance) in the stock assessment models used for SBT and other species.