14 resultados para Ecological niche modeling

em Aquatic Commons


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Thirty-three skipjack tuna (Katsuwonus pelamis) (53−73 cm fork length) were caught and released with implanted archival tags in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean during April 2004. Six skipjack tuna were recap-tured, and 9.3 to 10.1 days of depth and temperature data were down-loaded from five recovered tags. The vertical habitat-use distributions indicated that skipjack tuna not associated with floating objects spent 98.6% of their time above the thermocline (depth=44 m) during the night, but spent 37.7% of their time below the thermocline during the day. When not associated with floating objects, skipjack tuna displayed repetitive bounce-diving behavior to depths between 50 and 300 m during the day. The deepest dive recorded was 596 m, where the ambient temperature was 7.7°C. One dive was particularly remarkable because the fish contin-uously swam for 2 hours below the thermocline to a maximum depth of 330 m. During that dive, the ambient temperature reached a low of 10.5°C, and the peritoneal cavity temperature reached a low of 15.9°C. The vertical movements and habitat use of skipjack tuna, revealed in this study, provide a much greater understanding of their ecological niche and catchability by purse-seine fisheries.

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Environmental managers strive to preserve natural resources for future generations but have limited decision-making tools to define ecosystem health. Many programs offer relevant broad-scale, environmental policy information on regional ecosystem health. These programs provide evidence of environmental condition and change, but lack connections between local impacts and direct effects on living resources. To address this need, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/National Ocean Service (NOAA/NOS) Cooperative Oxford Laboratory (COL), in cooperation with federal, state, and academic partners, implemented an integrated biotic ecosystem assessment on a sub-watershed 14-digit Hydrologic Unit Code (HUD) scale in Chesapeake Bay. The goals of this effort were to 1) establish a suite of bioindicators that are sensitive to ecosystem change, 2) establish the effects of varying land-use patterns on water quality and the subsequent health of living resources, 3) communicate these findings to local decision-makers, and 4) evaluate the success of management decisions in these systems. To establish indicators, three sub-watersheds were chosen based on statistical analysis of land-use patterns to represent a gradient from developed to agricultural. The Magothy (developed), Corsica (agricultural), and Rhode (reference) Rivers were identified. A random stratified design was developed based on depth (2m contour) and river mile. Sampling approaches were coordinated within this structure to allow for robust system comparisons. The sampling approach was hierarchal, with metrics chosen to represent a range from community to cellular level responses across multiple organisms. This approach allowed for the identification of sub-lethal stressors, and assessment of their impact on the organism and subsequently the population. Fish, crabs, clams, oysters, benthic organisms, and bacteria were targeted, as each occupies a separate ecological niche and may respond dissimilarly to environmental stressors. Particular attention was focused on the use of pathobiology as a tool for assessing environmental condition. By integrating the biotic component with water quality, sediment indices, and land- use information, this holistic evaluation of ecosystem health will provide management entities with information needed to inform local decision-making processes and establish benchmarks for future restoration efforts.

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A brief review of the status of the ECOPATH modeling approach and software is presented, with emphasis on the recent release of a Windows version (ECOPATH 3.0), which enables consideration of uncertainties, and sets the stage for simulation modeling using ECOSIM. Modeling of coral reefs is emphasized.

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The purpose of this project is to model seabird flock size data to provide recommendations to the Bureau of Ocean and Energy Management for offshore wind turbine placement. Our hypothesis is that ecological characteristics influence which statistical distribution will provide the best fit to seabird flock size data. To test this, seabird species can be grouped based on shared ecological traits, such as foraging mechanism or diet.

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Moving ecosystem modeling from research to applications and operations has direct management relevance and will be integral to achieving the water quality and living resource goals of the 2010 Chesapeake Bay Executive Order. Yet despite decades of ecosystem modeling efforts of linking climate to water quality, plankton and fish, ecological models are rarely taken to the operational phase. In an effort to promote operational ecosystem modeling and ecological forecasting in Chesapeake Bay, a meeting was convened on this topic at the 2010 Chesapeake Modeling Symposium (May, 10-11). These presentations show that tremendous progress has been made over the last five years toward the development of operational ecological forecasting models, and that efforts in Chesapeake Bay are leading the way nationally. Ecological forecasts predict the impacts of chemical, biological, and physical changes on ecosystems, ecosystem components, and people. They have great potential to educate and inform not only ecosystem management, but also the outlook and opinion of the general public, for whom we manage coastal ecosystems. In the context of the Chesapeake Bay Executive Order, ecological forecasting can be used to identify favorable restoration sites, predict which sites and species will be viable under various climate scenarios, and predict the impact of a restoration project on water quality.

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As defined, the modeling procedure is quite broad. For example, the chosen compartments may contain a single organism, a population of organisms, or an ensemble of populations. A population compartment, in turn, could be homogeneous or possess structure in size or age. Likewise, the mathematical statements may be deterministic or probabilistic in nature, linear or nonlinear, autonomous or able to possess memory. Examples of all types appear in the literature. In practice, however, ecosystem modelers have focused upon particular types of model constructions. Most analyses seem to treat compartments which are nonsegregated (populations or trophic levels) and homogeneous. The accompanying mathematics is, for the most part, deterministic and autonomous. Despite the enormous effort which has gone into such ecosystem modeling, there remains a paucity of models which meets the rigorous &! validation criteria which might be applied to a model of a mechanical system. Most ecosystem models are short on prediction ability. Even some classical examples, such as the Lotka-Volterra predator-prey scheme, have not spawned validated examples.

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The authors have endeavored to create a verified a-posteriori model of a planktonic ecosystem. Verification of an empirically derived set of first-order, quadratic differential equations proved elusive due to the sensitivity of the model system to changes in initial conditions. Efforts to verify a similarly derived set of linear differential equations were more encouraging, yielding reasonable behavior for half of the ten ecosystem compartments modeled. The well-behaved species models gave indications as to the rate-controlling processes in the ecosystem.

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A literature review was conducted to locate information on the flow of energy from primary producers to the fishery stocks of the Puerto Rican-Virgin Islands insular shelf. This report uses site-specific information to describe the major ecological subsystems, or habitats, of the region, to identify the more common species and the subsystems in which they occur, to quantify productivity and biomass, and to outline trophic relationships. Discussions on each topic and subsystem vary in substance and detail, being limited by the availability and accessibility of information. (PDF contains 189 pages) Seven distinct subsystems are described: mangrove estuary, seagrass bed, coral reef, algal plain, sand/mud bottom, shelf break, and overlying pelagic. Over 50 tables provide lists of species found in each habitat on various surveys dating back to 1956. Estimates of density, relative abundance, and productivity are provided when possible. We evaluated whether sufficient information exists to support an analysis of the energy basis of fishery production in the area, beginning with the design and development of an ecosystem model. Data needs in three categories - species lists, biomass, and trophic relations - were examined for each subsystem and for each of three species groups - primary producers, invertebrates, and fish. We concluded that adequate data, sufficient for modeling purposes, are available in 16 (25%) of 64 categories; limited data, those requiring greater extrapolation, are available in 35 (55%) categories; and no data are available in 13 (20%) categories. The best-studied subsystems are seagrass beds and coral reefs, with at least limited data in all categories. Invertebrates, the intermediate link in the food web between primary producers and fishes, are the least quantified group in the region. Primary production and fishes, however, are relatively well-studied, providing sufficient data to support an ecosystem-level analysis and to initiate a modeling effort.

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The article provides insights on agroecosystem modeling and analysis with ECOPATH II.

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This baseline assessment of Jobos Bay and surrounding marine ecosystems consists of a two part series. The first report (Zitello et al., 2008) described the characteristics of the Bay and its watershed, including modeling work related to nutrients and sediment fluxes, based on existing data. The second portion of this assessment, presented in this document, presents the results of new field studies conducted to fill data gaps identified in previous studies, to provide a more complete characterization of Jobos Bay and the surrounding coral reef ecosystems. Specifically, the objective was to establish baseline values for the distribution of habitats, nutrients, contaminants, fi sh, and benthic communities. This baseline assessment is the first step in evaluating the effectiveness in changes in best management practices in the watershed. This baseline assessment is part of the Conservation Effects Assessment Project (CEAP), which is a multi-agency effort to quantify the environmental benefits of conservation practices used by agricultural producers participating in selected U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) conservation programs. Partners in the CEAP Jobos Bay Special Emphasis Watershed (SEW) included USDA’s Agricultural Research Service (ARS) and the Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the Government of Puerto Rico. The project originated from an on-going collaboration between USDA and NOAA on the U.S. Coral Reef Task Force. The Jobos Bay watershed was chosen because the predominant land use is agriculture, including agricultural lands adjacent to the Jobos Bay National Estuarine Research Reserve (JBNERR or Reserve), one of NOAA’s 26 National Estuarine Research Reserves (NERR). This report is organized into six chapters that represent a suite of interrelated studies. Chapter 1 provides a short introduction to Jobos Bay, including the land use and hydrology of the watershed. Chapter 2 is focused on benthic mapping and provides the methods and results of newly created benthic maps for Jobos Bay and the surrounding coral reef ecosystem. Chapter 3 presents the results of new surveys of fish, marine debris, and reef communities of the system. Chapter 4 is focused on the distribution of chemical contaminants in sediments within the Bay and corals outside of the Bay. Chapter 5 focuses on quantifying nutrient and pesticide concentrations in the surface waters at the Reserve’s System-Wide Monitoring Program (SWMP) sites. Chapter 6 is a brief summary discussion that highlights key findings of the entire suite of studies.

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Land-based pollution is commonly identified as a major contributor to the observed deterioration of shallow-water coral reef ecosystem health. Human activity on the coastal landscape often induces nutrient enrichment, hypoxia, harmful algal blooms, toxic contamination and other stressors that have degraded the quality of coastal waters. Coral reef ecosystems throughout Puerto Rico, including Jobos Bay, are under threat from coastal land uses such as urban development, industry and agriculture. The objectives of this report were two-fold: 1. To identify potentially harmful land use activities to the benthic habitats of Jobos Bay, and 2. To describe a monitoring plan for Jobos Bay designed to assess the impacts of conservation practices implemented on the watershed. This characterization is a component of the partnership between the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) established by the Conservation Effects Assessment Project (CEAP) in Jobos Bay. CEAP is a multi-agency effort to quantify the environmental benefits of conservation practices used by private landowners participating in USDA programs. The Jobos Bay watershed, located in southeastern Puerto Rico, was selected as the first tropical CEAP Special Emphasis Watershed (SEW). Both USDA and NOAA use their respective expertise in terrestrial and marine environments to model and monitor Jobos Bay resources. This report documents NOAA activities conducted in the first year of the three-year CEAP effort in Jobos Bay. Chapter 1 provides a brief overview of the project and background information on Jobos Bay and its watershed. Chapter 2 implements NOAA’s Summit to Sea approach to summarize the existing resource conditions on the watershed and in the estuary. Summit to Sea uses a GIS-based procedure that links patterns of land use in coastal watersheds to sediment and pollutant loading predictions at the interface between terrestrial and marine environments. The outcome of Summit to Sea analysis is an inventory of coastal land use and predicted pollution threats, consisting of spatial data and descriptive statistics, which allows for better management of coral reef ecosystems. Chapters 3 and 4 describe the monitoring plan to assess the ecological response to conservation practices established by USDA on the watershed. Jobos Bay is the second largest estuary in Puerto Rico, but has more than three times the shoreline of any other estuarine area on the island. It is a natural harbor protected from offshore wind and waves by a series of mangrove islands and the Punta Pozuelo peninsula. The Jobos Bay marine ecosystem includes 48 km² of mangrove, seagrass, coral reef and other habitat types that span both intertidal and subtidal areas. Mapping of Jobos Bay revealed 10 different benthic habitats of varying prevalence, and a large area of unknown bottom type covering 38% of the entire bay. Of the known benthic habitats, submerged aquatic vegetation, primarily seagrass, is the most common bottom type, covering slightly less than 30% of the bay. Mangroves are the dominant shoreline feature, while coral reefs comprise only 4% of the total benthic habitat. However, coral reefs are some of the most productive habitats found in Jobos Bay, and provide important habitat and nursery grounds for fish and invertebrates of commercial and recreational value.

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Increasing interest in the use of stock enhancement as a management tool necessitates a better understanding of the relative costs and benefits of alternative release strategies. We present a relatively simple model coupling ecology and economic costs to make inferences about optimal release scenarios for summer flounder (Paralichthys dentatus), a subject of stock enhancement interest in North Carolina. The model, parameterized from mark-recapture experiments, predicts optimal release scenarios from both survival and economic standpoints for varyious dates-of-release, sizes-at-release, and numbers of fish released. Although most stock enhancement efforts involve the release of relatively small fish, the model suggests that optimal results (maximum survival and minimum costs) will be obtained when relatively large fish (75–80 mm total length) are released early in the nursery season (April). We investigated the sensitivity of model predictions to violations of the assumption of density-independent mortality by including density-mortality relationships based on weak and strong type-2 and type-3 predator functional responses (resulting in depensatory mortality at elevated densities). Depending on postrelease density, density-mortality relationships included in the model considerably affect predicted postrelease survival and economic costs associated with enhancement efforts, but do not alter the release scenario (i.e. combination of release variables) that produces optimal results. Predicted (from model output) declines in flounder over time most closely match declines observed in replicate field sites when mortality in the model is density-independent or governed by a weak type-3 functional response. The model provides an example of a relatively easy-to-develop predictive tool with which to make inferences about the ecological and economic potential of stock enhancement of summer flounder and provides a template for model creation for additional species that are subjects of stock enhancement interest, but for which limited empirical data exist.