Improving the chances for developing coastal country success in adapting to climate change

There is an unequivocal scientific consensus that increases in greenhouse gases in the atmosphere drive warming temperatures of air and sea, and acidification of the world’s oceans from carbon dioxide absorbed by the oceans. These changes in turn can induce shifts in precipitation patterns, sea level rise, and more frequent and severe extreme weather events (e.g. storms and sea surge). All of these impacts are already being witnessed in the world’s coastal regions and are projected to intensify in years to come. Taken together, these impacts are likely to result in significant alteration of natural habitats and coastal ecosystems, and increased coastal hazards in low-lying areas. They can affect fishers, coastal communities and resource users, recreation and tourism, and coastal infrastructure. Approaches to planned adaptation to these impacts can be drawn from the lessons and good practices from global experience in Integrated Coastal Management (ICM). The recently published USAID Guidebook on Adapting to Coastal Climate Change (USAID 2009) is directed at practitioners, development planners, and coastal management professionals in developing countries. It offers approaches for assessing vulnerability to climate change and climate variability in communities and outlines how to develop and implement adaptation measures at the local and national levels. Six best practices for coastal adaptation are featured in the USAID Guidebook on Adapting to Coastal Climate Change and summarized in the following sections. (PDF contains 3 pages)

Drought frequency analysis for California from observed, synthetic, and proxy data

Drought frequency analysis can be performed with statistical techniques developed for determining recurrence intervals for extreme precipitation and flood events (Linsley et al 1992). The drought analysis method discussed in this paper uses the log-Pearson Type III distribution, which has been widely used in flood frequency research. Some of the difficulties encountered when using this distribution for drought analysis are investigated.

Field Guide to Nonindigenous Marine Fishes of Florida

The purpose of this field guide is to provide information on nonindigenous (i.e., non-native) fishes that have been observed in Florida’s marine waters. Introductions of non-native marine fishes into Florida’s waters could be intentional or unintentional, and are likely from a variety of sources, including aquarium releases, escape from aquaculture, loss due to extreme weather events (e.g., flooding from hurricanes), and possibly transfer with ballast water or hull-fouling. Presently the lionfishes (Pterois volitans and P. miles) are the only non-native marine fish species known to be established along the coast of Florida. All other marine fishes in this guide (except the euryhaline species, see below) have infrequent occurrences, occur singly or in small groups, and have not yet become self-sustaining populations. Aquarium releases are one of the major pathways whereby nonindigenous fishes gain access to new environments (Ruiz et al. 1997; Fuller et al. 1999). Most of the nonindigenous marine fishes found in Florida’s waters are thought to be aquarium fishes that either were illegally released into the ocean or escaped captivity (e.g., during severe storm/flooding events). Indeed, south Florida is a hotspot for nonindigenous marine aquarium fishes (Semmens et al. 2004). Increased public awareness of the problems caused by released or escaped aquarium fishes may aid in stemming the frequency of releases. For example, HabitattitudeTM (www.habitattitude.net) is a national public awareness and partnership campaign that encourages aquarists and water gardeners to prevent the release of unwanted aquarium plants, fish and other animals. It prompts hobbyists to adopt alternative actions when dealing with these aquatic plants and animals. (PDF file contains 133 pages.)

Integrating climate change impacts to improve understanding of coastal climate change: heavy rains, strong winds, and high seas in coastal Hawaii, Alaska and the Pacific Northwest

Coastal storms, and the strong winds, heavy rains, and high seas that accompany them pose a serious threat to the lives and livelihoods of the peoples of the Pacific basin, from the tropics to the high latitudes. To reduce their vulnerability to the economic, social, and environmental risks associated with these phenomena (and correspondingly enhance their resiliency), decision-makers in coastal communities require timely access to accurate information that affords them an opportunity to plan and respond accordingly. This includes information about the potential for coastal flooding, inundation and erosion at time scales ranging from hours to years, as well as the longterm climatological context of this information. The Pacific Storms Climatology Project (PSCP) was formed in 2006 with the intent of improving scientific understanding of patterns and trends of storm frequency and intensity - “storminess”- and related impacts of these extreme events. The project is currently developing a suite of integrated information products that can be used by emergency managers, mitigation planners, government agencies and decision-makers in key sectors, including: water and natural resource management, agriculture and fisheries, transportation and communication, and recreation and tourism. The PSCP is exploring how the climate-related processes that govern extreme storm events are expressed within and between three primary thematic areas: heavy rains, strong winds, and high seas. To address these thematic areas, PSCP has focused on developing analyses of historical climate records collected throughout the Pacific region, and the integration of these climatological analyses with near-real time observations to put recent weather and climate events into a longer-term perspective.(PDF contains 4 pages)

Scoping report: current status of index-based insurance in Bangladesh

With current and anticipated increases in magnitude of extreme weather events and a declining consistency in weather patterns, particularly challenging for agriculture, there has been a growing interest in weather index-based insurance (IBI) schemes in Bangladesh. A number of weather index-based insurance products have already been tested and applied across Asia and Africa, with varying degrees of success, as a mechanism to improve livelihood security by enabling vulnerable populations to transfer risk associated with climate change, extreme weather events and other hazards. In the process, these efforts have generated important new knowledge on how these schemes can be designed and implemented for optimal results. However, the practice of index-based insurance is still limited in Bangladesh, and the experience and knowledge generated by the different stakeholders involved needs to be better communicated.

Boat wakes and their influence on erosion in the Atlantic Intracoastal Waterway, North Carolina

Boat wakes in the Atlantic Intracoastal Waterway (AIWW) of North Carolina occur in environments not normally subjected to (wind) wave events, making sections of AIWW potentially vulnerable to extreme wave events generated by boat wakes. The Snow’s Cut area that links the Cape Fear River to the AIWW is an area identified by the Wilmington District of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers as having significant erosion issues; it was hypothesized that this erosion could be being exacerbated by boat wakes. We compared the boat wakes for six combinations of boat length and speed with the top 5% wind events. We also computed the benthic shear stress associated with boat wakes and whether sediment would move (erode) under those conditions. Finally, we compared the transit time across Snow’s Cut for each speed. We focused on two size classes of V-hulled boats (7 and 16m) representative of AIWW traffic and on three boat speeds (3, 10 and 20 knots). We found that at 10 knots when the boat was plowing and not yet on plane, boat wake height and potential erosion was greatest. Wakes and forecast erosion were slightly mitigated at higher, planing speeds. Vessel speeds greater than 7 knots were forecast to generate wakes and sediment movement zones greatly exceeding that arising from natural wind events. We posit that vessels larger than 7m in length transiting Snow’s Cut (and likely many other fetch-restricted areas of the AIWW) frequently generate wakes of heights that result in sediment movement over large extents of the AIWW nearshore area, substantially in exceedance of natural wind wave events. If the speed, particularly of large V-hulled vessels (here represented by the 16m length class), were reduced to pre-plowing levels (~ 7 knots down from 20), transit times for Snow’s Cut would be increased approximately 10 minutes but based on our simulations would likely substantially reduce the creation of erosion-generating boat wakes. It is likely that boat wakes significantly exceed wind wave background for much of the AIWW and similar analyses may be useful in identifying management options.

A numerical simulation of cool/wet and warm/wet episodes in the western United States

Wintertime precipitation in the mountains of the western United States during a warm or cool period has a pronounced influence on streamflow. During a warm year, streamflow at intermediate elevations responds more immediately to precipitation events; during a cold year, much of the discharge is delayed until the snow melts in spring and summer. Previous efforts at studying these extremes have been hampered by a limited number and length of observational analyses. In this study, we augment this limited observational record by analyzing a simplified general circulation model.

Extreme events and ecological forecasting

Almost all extreme events lasting less than several weeks that significantly impact ecosystems are weather related. This review examines the response of estuarine systems to intense short-term perturbations caused by major weather events such as hurricanes. Current knowledge concerning these effects is limited to relatively few studies where hurricanes and storms impacted estuaries with established environmental monitoring programs. Freshwater inputs associated with these storms were found to initially result in increased primary productivity. When hydrographic conditions are favorable, bacterial consumption of organic matter produced by the phytoplankton blooms and deposited during the initial runoff event can contribute to significant oxygen deficits during subsequent warmer periods. Salinity stress and habitat destruction associated with freshwater inputs, as well as anoxia, adversely affect benthic populations and fish. In contrast, mobile invertebrate species such as shrimp, which have a short life cycle and the ability to migrate during the runoff event, initially benefit from the increased primary productivity and decreased abundance of fish predators. Events studied so far indicate that estuaries rebound in one to three years following major short-term perturbations. However, repeated storm events without sufficient recovery time may cause a fundamental shift in ecosystem structure (Scavia et al. 2002). This is a scenario consistent with the predicted increase in hurricanes for the east coast of the United States. More work on the response of individual species to these stresses is needed so management of commercial resources can be adjusted to allow sufficient recovery time for affected populations.

South American streamflow and the extreme phases of the Southern Oscillation

This study investigates the extent of the affect [sic] of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation on South American streamflow. The response of South American precipitation and temperature to the extreme phases of ENSO (El Niño and La Niña events) is well documented; but the response of South American hydrology has been barely studied. Such paucity of research contrasts sharply with that available on the response of North American streamflow to ENSO events.

Northerly Distribution of White Sharks, Carcharodon carcharias, in the Eastern Pacific and Relation to ENSO Events

Twenty-nine verified records of white sharks, Carcharodon carcharias, from British Columbia and Alaska waters (1961–2004) are presented. Record locations ranged from lat. 48°48ʹN to lat. 60°17ʹN, including the northernmost occurrence of a white shark and the first report of this species from the central Bering Sea. White sharks recorded from the study area were generally large, with 95% falling between 3.8 and 5.4 m in length. Mature white sharks of both sexes occur in British Columbia and Alaska waters, although they do not necessarily reproduce there. White sharks actively feed in the study area; their diet is similar to that reported for this species from Washington and northern California waters. Sea surface temperature (SST) concurrent with white shark records from the study area ranged from 16°C to between 6.4°C and 5.0°C, extending the lower extreme of the range of SST from which this species has been previously reported. White shark strandings are rarely reported, yet 16 (55%) of the records in this study are of beached animals; strandings generally occurred later in the year and at lower latitudes than nonstrandings. No significant correlation was found between white shark records in the study area and El Niño events and no records occurred during La Niña events. The data presented here indicate that white sharks are more abundant in the cold waters of British Columbia and Alaska than previous records suggest.

ENSO and precipitation variability over Mexico during the last 90 years

Latin America has been shown to be susceptible to climatic anomalies during El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events (eg, Aceituno 1988; Ropelewshi and Halpert 1987; Kiladis and Diaz 1989). While these studies have emphasized ENSO-related rainfall and temperature anomalies over Central and South America, less work has been done on the climatic effects of ENSO over the Mexican region. In this study we are investigating interannual and intraseasonal fluctuation in temperature and precipitation over the southwestern United States and Mexico since the turn of the century. We are particularly interested in the effects of ENSO on the interannual variability over this region. This report focuses on the association between ENSO and interannual variability of precipitation over Mexico.

The potential consequences of climate variability and change on coastal areas and marine resources: report of the Coastal Areas and Marine Resources Sector Team, U.S. National Assessment of the Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change, U.S. Global Change Research Program

Coastal and marine ecosystems support diverse and important fisheries throughout the nation’s waters, hold vast storehouses of biological diversity, and provide unparalleled recreational opportunities. Some 53% of the total U.S. population live on the 17% of land in the coastal zone, and these areas become more crowded every year. Demands on coastal and marine resources are rapidly increasing, and as coastal areas become more developed, the vulnerability of human settlements to hurricanes, storm surges, and flooding events also increases. Coastal and marine environments are intrinsically linked to climate in many ways. The ocean is an important distributor of the planet’s heat, and this distribution could be strongly influenced by changes in global climate over the 21st century. Sea-level rise is projected to accelerate during the 21st century, with dramatic impacts in low-lying regions where subsidence and erosion problems already exist. Many other impacts of climate change on the oceans are difficult to project, such as the effects on ocean temperatures and precipitation patterns, although the potential consequences of various changes can be assessed to a degree. In other instances, research is demonstrating that global changes may already be significantly impacting marine ecosystems, such as the impact of increasing nitrogen on coastal waters and the direct effect of increasing carbon dioxide on coral reefs. Coastal erosion is already a widespread problem in much of the country and has significant impacts on undeveloped shorelines as well as on coastal development and infrastructure. Along the Pacific Coast, cycles of beach and cliff erosion have been linked to El Niño events that elevate average sea levels over the short term and alter storm tracks that affect erosion and wave damage along the coastline. These impacts will be exacerbated by long-term sea-level rise. Atlantic and Gulf coastlines are especially vulnerable to long-term sea-level rise as well as any increase in the frequency of storm surges or hurricanes. Most erosion events here are the result of storms and extreme events, and the slope of these areas is so gentle that a small rise in sea level produces a large inland shift of the shoreline. When buildings, roads and seawalls block this natural migration, the beaches and shorelines erode, threatening property and infrastructure as well as coastal ecosystems.

Uncovering North American temperature and precipitation patterns associated with the Southern Oscillation

The extreme phases of the Southern Oscillation (SO) have been linked to fairly persistent classes of circulation anomalies over the North Pacific and parts of North America. It has been more difficult to uncover correspondingly consistent patterns of surface temperature and precipitation over much of the continent. The few regions that appear to have consistent SO-related patterns of temperature and precipitation anomalies are identified and discussed. Also discussed are regions that appear to have strong SO-related surface anomalies whose sign varies from episode to episode.

ENSO influences on atmospheric circulation and precipitation in the western United States

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): The influence of ENSO on atmospheric circulation and precipitation over the western United States is presented from two perspectives. First, ENSO-associated circulation patterns over the North Pacific/North America sector were identified using an REOF (rotated empirical orthogonal function) analysis of the 700-mb height field and compositing these for extreme phases of the Southern Oscillation Index. ... Second, we examine the variability of precipitation during the warm and cool phases of ENSO for different locations in the western United States.

Sea surface temperature and paleo-El Niño events in Santa Barbara Basin, AD 1841-1941

Like pages of a "natural coastal diary", successive layers of anoxic varved sediment in the central Santa Barbara Basin have been used by paleoceanographers to reconstruct aspects of past coastal climate. This report focuses on the end of the "Little Ice Age" (15th to 19th century) and on the beginning of this century, a period known to encompass extreme climate excursions and weather events in the Santa Barbara Basin and other parts of Southern California. El Niño events are known to disrupt Southern California's coastal ecosystems and to cause anomalous weather conditions, but El Niño events in Southern California before 1990 have been largely undocumented.