30 resultados para EXTENDED UNCERTAINTY RELATIONS

em Aquatic Commons


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The widespread implementation of Extended Fisheries Jurisdiction (EFJ) has confronted coastal states with several resource management problems. One of these consists of the economic relations, if any, that the coastal state should establish with distant-water fishing nations (DWFN's) seeking access to the coastal state's 200-mile zone. Several of the other papers presented here deal with specific aspects of the issue. This paper, on the other hand, will concern itself with the question of the analytical framework to be used by economists in studying this issue. It will offer some suggestions with respect to possible components of the framework. In doing so, the paper will restrict itself to the coastal state's perspective of EFJ and the management issues arising therefrom. It goes without saying, of course, that an enlightened coastal state will attempt to acquaint itself with the DWFN view of the world.

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“Why does overfishing persist in the face of regulation?” The author argues that over fishing,a fundamental cause of the crisis facing our oceans, is the result of the failure of our fishing management agencies (ultimately our politicians and communities) to embrace a small suite of powerful tools (more correctly strategic approaches) which have been developed to account for uncertainty. Broad success in managing fisheries to achieve sustainability goals will only come if these tools are enthusiastically applied. This will not happen until organisational cultures within fishery management agencies undergo a major shift leading to an asset-based biodiversity conservation, rather than resource exploitation, to be placed at the centre of ocean governance.This thesis examines these issues in the context of case studies covering regional, national and provincial (State) fishery management agencies. With the exception of the case study of a regional fishery (the southern ocean krill fishery) all case studies are drawn from Australian experiences. The central recommendation of the thesis is that fishery management agencies, worldwide, should be replaced by biodiversity asset management agencies.

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The amphipod Gammarus lacustris, a regular representative of lacustrine communities, often plays a significant role in the transformation of matter and energy. The object of the present work was to clarify the quantitative side of the feeding of the amphipod under different conditions of habitation. Experimental works on determination of the rate of consumption of food and its dependence on body-weight were carried out in the summer periods 1975-1978 on three water-bodies of the Krasnoyarsk region, of different conditions of habitation for the amphipods.

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Since 1974 we have been collecting statistics on the main fishing gears in the ivorian lagoons. In order to get good estimation of the catches, it is often more convenient to measure the fishes and to convert this data into weights through a length-weight relationship. In this work we computed this relation for 43 species found in the Aby and Ebrié lagoons.

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Hydroclimatic conditions in the Gulf of Guinea between Senegal and Nigeria are briefly described emphasizing the seasonal variations of transparency. Analysis of the Abidjan based shrimp fleet allowed to the description of the seasonal variations of activity rhythms for Côte d'Ivoire, Ghana, and Nigeria. These rhythms are different between seasons, between fishing grounds, and sometimes even between depths on a given ground. These variations follow the turbidity ones. Diurnal activity is observed in very turbid waters, nocturnal and transition activity in clearer ones. The authors assume that the basic behaviour is a nocturnal one, but that the shrimp-trawlers catches reflect some apparently different ones resulting from diel variations in the stock availability. To explain the apparently diurnal behaviour observed most of the year over the whole Gulf of Guinea it is suggested that these generally benthic shrimps become nectonic at night when turbidity is very high. The results obtained in Ivory Coast, Ghana and Nigeria are compared to those from Senegal where hydroclimatic conditions are different. The similarities are emphasized. The differences in observed behaviour are supposedly caused by the cold season water temps which are sufficiently low to disturb the nor mal activity rhythm.

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Quantifying scientific uncertainty when setting total allowable catch limits for fish stocks is a major challenge, but it is a requirement in the United States since changes to national fisheries legislation. Multiple sources of error are readily identifiable, including estimation error, model specification error, forecast error, and errors associated with the definition and estimation of reference points. Our focus here, however, is to quantify the influence of estimation error and model specification error on assessment outcomes. These are fundamental sources of uncertainty in developing scientific advice concerning appropriate catch levels and although a study of these two factors may not be inclusive, it is feasible with available information. For data-rich stock assessments conducted on the U.S. west coast we report approximate coefficients of variation in terminal biomass estimates from assessments based on inversion of the assessment of the model’s Hessian matrix (i.e., the asymptotic standard error). To summarize variation “among” stock assessments, as a proxy for model specification error, we characterize variation among multiple historical assessments of the same stock. Results indicate that for 17 groundfish and coastal pelagic species, the mean coefficient of variation of terminal biomass is 18%. In contrast, the coefficient of variation ascribable to model specification error (i.e., pooled among-assessment variation) is 37%. We show that if a precautionary probability of overfishing equal to 0.40 is adopted by managers, and only model specification error is considered, a 9% reduction in the overfishing catch level is indicated.

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Stock assessments can be problematic because of uncertainties associated with the data or because of simplified assumptions made when modeling biological processes (Rosenberg and Restrepo, 1995). For example, the common assumption in stock assessments that stocks are homogeneous and discrete (i.e., there is no migration between the stocks) is not necessarily true (Kell et al., 2004a, 2004b).

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This study summarizes previously published and updated empirical relations for the estimation of production/biomass ratios in benthic invertebrates; of natural mortality in benthic invertebrates and finfish; and of respiration from production and vice versa in animal populations. AMS-EXCEL spreadsheet containing these equations is available from the author via Email. They are also included in the Ecopath with Ecosim software.

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This contribution illustrates how modern spreadsheets aid the calculation and visualization of yield models and how the effects of uncertainties may be incorporated using Monte Carlo simulation. It is argued that analogous approaches can be implemented for other assessment models of simple to medium complexity justifying wider use of spreadsheets in fisheries analysis and training.