Codend selection of winter flounder Pseudopleuronectes americanus

Codend selection of winter flounder (Pseudopleuronectes americanus) in 76-127 mm mesh codends was examined from experiments conducted in Long Island Sound during the spring of 1986-87. The results show a slightly larger size at selection than was found in earlier work as indicated by the selection factor, 2.31 in the present study compared with 2.2 and 2.24 from previous studies. Diamond mesh was found to have a length at 50% retention about 1 cm longer (Lso =22.6 cm), and a selection range (3.4 cm) about 1 cm narrower, than square mesh in 102-mm codends. Tow duration varied from 1 to 2 hours using 114-mm diamond mesh. As has been found in previous studies, tow duration and Lso are positively related, with I-hour tows averaging 24.6 cm and 2-hour tows averaging 26.6 cm. The importance of the slope of the selection curve was examined in yield-per-recruit analyses by comparing knife-edge and stepwise recruitment. In all mesh sizes, stepwise recruitment provides a more conservative estimate of yield in the presence of a minimum size limit. Differences in yield estimates between the two models were generally small (1-7%), except in the largest mesh size, 127 mm, where yield is overestimated by 10% when assuming knife-edge recruitment. (PDF file contains 16 pages.)

Structural dynamic eutrophication models

This article discusses problems of modelling the seasonal succession of algal species in lakes and reservoirs, and the adaptive selection of certain groups of algae in response to changes in the inputs and relative concentrations of nutrients and other environmental variables. A new generation of quantitative models is being developed which attempts to translate some important biological properties of species (survival, variation, inheritance, reproductive rates and population growth) into predictions about the survival of the fittest, where ”fitness” is measured or estimated in thermodynamic terms. The concept of ”exergy” and its calculation is explored to examine maximal exergy as a measure of fitness in ecosystems, and its use for calculating changes in species composition by means of structural dynamic models. These models accomodate short-term changes in parameters that affect the adaptive responses (species selection) of algae.

In search of climate effects on Atlantic Croaker (Micropogonias undulatus) stock off the U.S. Atlantic coast with Bayesian state-space biomass dynamic models

Atlantic Croaker (Micropogonias undulatus) production dynamics along the U.S. Atlantic coast are regulated by fishing and winter water temperature. Stakeholders for this resource have recommended investigating the effects of climate covariates in assessment models. This study used state-space biomass dynamic models without (model 1) and with (model 2) the minimum winter estuarine temperature (MWET) to examine MWET effects on Atlantic Croaker population dynamics during 1972–2008. In model 2, MWET was introduced into the intrinsic rate of population increase (r). For both models, a prior probability distribution (prior) was constructed for r or a scaling parameter (r0); imputs were the fishery removals, and fall biomass indices developed by using data from the Multispecies Bottom Trawl Survey of the Northeast Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, and the Coastal Trawl Survey of the Southeast Area Monitoring and Assessment Program. Model sensitivity runs incorporated a uniform (0.01,1.5) prior for r or r0 and bycatch data from the shrimp-trawl fishery. All model variants produced similar results and therefore supported the conclusion of low risk of overfishing for the Atlantic Croaker stock in the 2000s. However, the data statistically supported only model 1 and its configuration that included the shrimp-trawl fishery bycatch. The process errors of these models showed slightly positive and significant correlations with MWET, indicating that warmer winters would enhance Atlantic Croaker biomass production. Inconclusive, somewhat conflicting results indicate that biomass dynamic models should not integrate MWET, pending, perhaps, accumulation of longer time series of the variables controlling the production dynamics of Atlantic Croaker, preferably including winter-induced estimates of Atlantic Croaker kills.