Extreme events and ecological forecasting

Almost all extreme events lasting less than several weeks that significantly impact ecosystems are weather related. This review examines the response of estuarine systems to intense short-term perturbations caused by major weather events such as hurricanes. Current knowledge concerning these effects is limited to relatively few studies where hurricanes and storms impacted estuaries with established environmental monitoring programs. Freshwater inputs associated with these storms were found to initially result in increased primary productivity. When hydrographic conditions are favorable, bacterial consumption of organic matter produced by the phytoplankton blooms and deposited during the initial runoff event can contribute to significant oxygen deficits during subsequent warmer periods. Salinity stress and habitat destruction associated with freshwater inputs, as well as anoxia, adversely affect benthic populations and fish. In contrast, mobile invertebrate species such as shrimp, which have a short life cycle and the ability to migrate during the runoff event, initially benefit from the increased primary productivity and decreased abundance of fish predators. Events studied so far indicate that estuaries rebound in one to three years following major short-term perturbations. However, repeated storm events without sufficient recovery time may cause a fundamental shift in ecosystem structure (Scavia et al. 2002). This is a scenario consistent with the predicted increase in hurricanes for the east coast of the United States. More work on the response of individual species to these stresses is needed so management of commercial resources can be adjusted to allow sufficient recovery time for affected populations.

Seasonality, labor and integration of aquaculture into southern African smallhold farming systems

Fish production on Malawian smallholdings is generally limited by the quantity and quality of inputs to the pond (Brummett and Noble 1995). The timing of labor availability and other farm activities limit the amount farmers put into their ponds resulting in lower growth rates and yields. There is potential for improving production and yields through modifications of production schedules to accommodate other farming activities. Limited material and labor inputs among farming system enterprises can be better allocated by considering seasonal availability of inputs and adapting the pond and fish farming technology to the farming system. This case from Malawi demonstrates that aquaculture technology that neglects the annual cycle of events and constraints on the farm will not be easily integrated into the farming system. Focusing on technology that maximizes fish production rather than facilitation of adoption and integration has been a feature of the majority of African smallholder agriculture/aquaculture projects. Farming Systems Research (FSR) must identify niches and opportunities for system improvement for it to be worth supporting as a development intervention.