Report of the Study Group on “ Fisheries and Ecosystem Response to Recent Regime Shifts”

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1. DECADAL-SCALE CLIMATE EVENTS 1.1 Introduction 1.2 Basin-scale Patterns 1.3 Long Time Series in the North Pacific 1.4 Decadal Climate Variability in Ecological Regions of the North Pacific 1.5 Mechanisms 1.6 References 2. COHERENT REGIONAL RESPONSES 2.1 Introduction 2.2 Central North Pacific (CNP) 2.3 California Current System (CCS) 2.4 Gulf of Alaska (GOA) 2.5 Bering Sea and Aleutian Islands 2.6 Western North Pacific (WNP) 2.7 Coherence in Regional Responses to the 1998 Regime Shift 2.8 Climate Indicators for Detecting Regime Shifts 2.9 References 3. IMPLICATIONS FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF MARINE RESOURCES 3.1 Introduction 3.2 Response Time of Biota to Regime Shifts 3.3 Response Time of Management to Regime Shifts 3.4 Provision of Stock Assessment Advice 3.5 Decision Rules 3.6 References 4. SUGGESTED LITERATURE 4.1 Climate Regimes 4.2 Impacts on Lower Trophic Levels 4.3 Impacts on Fish and Higher Trophic Levels 4.4 Impacts on Ecosystems and Possible Mechanisms 4.5 Regimes and Fisheries Management APPENDIX 1: RECENT ECOSYSTEM CHANGES IN THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC A1.1 Introduction A1.2 Physical Oceanography A1.3 Lower Trophic Levels A1.4 Invertebrates A1.5 Fishes A1.6 References APPENDIX 2: RECENT ECOSYSTEM CHANGES IN THE CALIFORNIA CURRENT SYSTEM A2.1 Introduction A2.2 Physical Oceanography A2.3 Lower Trophic Levels A2.4 Invertebrates A2.5 Fishes A2.6 References APPENDIX 3: RECENT ECOSYSTEM CHANGES IN THE GULF OF ALASKA A3.1 Introduction A3.2 Physical Oceanography A3.3 Lower Trophic Levels A3.4 Invertebrates A3.5 Fishes A3.6 Higher Trophic Levels A3.7 Coherence in Gulf of Alaska Fish A3.8 Combined Standardized Indices of Recruitment and Survival Rate A3.9 References APPENDIX 4: RECENT ECOSYSTEM CHANGES IN THE BERING SEA AND ALEUTIAN ISLANDS A4.1 Introduction A4.2 Bering Sea Environmental Variables and Physical Oceanography A4.3 Bering Sea Lower Trophic Levels A4.4 Bering Sea Invertebrates A4.5 Bering Sea Fishes A4.6 Bering Sea Higher Trophic Levels A4.7 Coherence in Bering Sea Fish Responses A4.8 Combined Standardized Indices of Bering Fish Recruitment and Survival Rate A4.9 Aleutian Islands A4.10 References APPENDIX 5: RECENT ECOSYSTEM CHANGES IN THE WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC A5.1 Introduction A5.2 Sea of Okhotsk A5.3 Tsushima Current Region and Kuroshio/Oyashio Current Region A5.4 Bohai Sea, Yellow Sea, and East China Sea A5.5 References (168 page document)

A 4500-year time series of Pacific cod (Gadus macrocephalus) size and abundance: archaeology, oceanic regime shifts, and sustainable fisheries

A 4500-year archaeological record of Pacific cod (Gadus macrocephalus) bones from Sanak Island, Alaska, was used to assess the sustainability of the modern fishery and the effects of this fishery on the size of fish caught. Allometric reconstructions of Pacific cod length for eight prehistoric time periods indicated that the current size of the nearshore, commercially fished Pacific cod stocks is statistically unchanged from that of fish caught during 4500 years of subsistence harvesting. This finding indicates that the current Pacific cod fishery that uses selective harvesting technolog ies is a sustainable commercial fishery. Variation in relative Pacific cod abundances provides further insights into the response of this species to punctuated changes in ocean climate (regime shifts) and indicates that Pacific cod stocks can recover from major environmental perturbations. Such palaeofisheries data can extend the short time-series of fisheries data (<50 yr) that form the basis for fisheries management in the Gulf of Alaska and place current trends within the context of centennial- or millennial-scale patterns.

Shifts in the estuarine demersal fish community after a fishery closure in Puget Sound, Washington

Puget Sound is one of the largest and most ecologically significant estuaries in the United States, but the status and trends of many of its biological components are not well known. We analyzed a 21-year time series of data from standardized bottom trawl sampling at a single study area to provide the first assessment of population trends of Puget Sound groundfishes after the closure of bottom trawl fisheries. The expected increase in abundance was observed for only 3 of 14 species after this closure, and catch rates of most (10) of the abundant species declined through time. Many of these changes were stepwise (abrupt) rather than gradual, and many stocks exhibited changes in catch rate during the 3-year period from 1997 through 2000. No detectable change was recorded for either temperature or surface salinity over the entire sampling period. The abrupt density reductions that were observed likely do not reflect changes in demographic rates but may instead represent distributional shifts within Puget Sound.

Combining stable isotopes and skeletal growth marks to detect habitat shifts in juvenile loggerhead sea turtles Caretta caretta

Understanding the phase and timing of ontogenetic habitat shifts underlies the study of a species’ life history and population dynamics. This information is especially critical to the conservation and management of threatened and endangered species, such as the loggerhead sea turtle Caretta caretta. The early life of loggerheads consists of a terrestrial egg and hatchling stage, a posthatchling and juvenile oceanic, pelagic feeding stage, and a juvenile neritic, primarily benthic feeding stage. In the present study, novel approaches were applied to explore the timing of the loggerhead ontogenetic shift from pelagic to benthic habitats. The most recent years of somatic growth are recorded as annual marks in humerus cross sections. A consistent growth mark pattern in benthic juvenile loggerheads was identified, with narrow growth marks in the interior of the bone transitioning to wider growth marks at the exterior, indicative of a sharp increase in growth rates at the transitional growth mark. This increase in annual growth is hypothesized to correlate with the ontogenetic shift from pelagic to benthic habitats. Stable isotopes of carbon and nitrogen just interior and exterior to the transitional growth mark, as well as stable isotopes from pelagic and benthic flora, fauna and loggerhead stomach contents, were analyzed to determine whether this transition related to a diet shift. The results clearly indicate that a dietary shift from oceanic/pelagic to neritic/benthic feeding corresponds to a transitional growth mark. The combination of stable isotope analysis with skeletochronology can elucidate the ecology of cryptic life history stages during loggerhead ontogeny.

Diet shifts of juvenile red snapper (Lutjanus campechanus) with changes in habitat and fish size

We examined the diets and habitat shift of juvenile red snapper (Lutjanus campechanus) in the northeast Gulf of Mexico. Fish were collected from open sand-mud habitat (little to no relief), and artificial reef habitat (1-m3 concrete or PVC blocks), from June 1993 through December 1994. In 1994, fish settled over open habitat from June to September, as shown by trawl collections, then began shifting to reef habitat — a shift that was almost completed by December as observed by SCUBA visual surveys. Stomachs were examined from 1639 red snapper that ranged in size from 18.0 to 280.0 mm SL. Of these, 850 fish had empty stomachs, and 346 fish from open habitat and 443 fish from reef habitat contained prey. Prey were identified to the lowest possible taxon and quantified by volumetric measurement. Specific volume of particular prey taxa were calculated by dividing prey volume by individual fish weight. Red snapper shifted diets with increasing size. Small red snapper (<60 mm SL) fed mostly on chaetognaths, copepods, shrimp, and squid. Large red snapper (60–280 mm SL) shifted feeding to fish prey, greater amounts of squid and crabs, and continued feeding on shrimp. We compared red snapper diets for overlapping size classes (70–160 mm SL) of fish that were collected from both habitats (Bray-Curtis dissimilarity index and multidimensional scaling analysis). Red snapper diets separated by habitat type rather than fish size for the size ranges that overlapped habitats. These diet shifts were attributed to feeding more on reef prey than on open-water prey. Thus, the shift in habitat shown by juvenile red snapper was reflected in their diet and suggested differential habitat values based not just on predation refuge but food resources as well.

Ontogenetic shifts in natural diet during benthic stages of American lobster (Homarus americanus), off the Magdalen Islands

The natural diet of 506 American lobsters (Homarus americanus) ranging from instar V (4 mm cephalothorax length, CL) to the adult stage (112 mm CL) was determined by stomach content analysis for a site in the Magdalen Islands, Gulf of St. Lawrence, eastern Canada. Cluster and factor analyses determined four size groupings of lobsters based on their diet: <7.5 mm, 7.5 to <22.5 mm, 22.5 to <62.5 mm, and ≥62.5 mm CL. The ontogenetic shift in diet with increasing size of lobsters was especially apparent for the three dominant food items: the contribution of bivalves and animal tissue (flesh) to volume of stomach contents decreased from the smallest lobsters (28% and 39%, respectively) to the largest lobsters (2% and 11%, respectively), whereas the reverse trend was seen for rock crab Cancer irroratus (7% in smallest lobsters to 53% in largest lobsters). Large lobsters also ate larger rock crabs than did small lobsters.

Rapid δ18O and δ13C isotopic shifts in late Pleistocene marine varves on the California margin

Upper Pleistocene sediments on the continental slope off Northern California contain alternations of varves and bioturbation produced by fluctuations in intensity of the coastal upwelling system. Stable isotopic analyses of benthic Foraminifera across a particularly well developed varve/bioturbation sequence deposited ~26,000 years ago reveal rapid shifts of ~0.25‰ in δ18O and ~0.4‰ in δ13C. The δ18O shift occurs within a varved section. Based on varve counts, the isotopic change occurred in less than 100 years. Timing and magnitude of the shift coincide with similar shifts observed in almost all other high-resolution δ18O records that have been interpreted as primarily representing global in-volume fluctuations.

PICES Press, Vol. 13, No. 1, January 2005

The state of PICES science - 2004 (pdf 0.7 MB) 2004 Wooster Award (pdf 0.2 MB) Micronekton – What are they and why are they important? (pdf 0.5 MB) Upscaling for a better understanding of climate links to ecosystems (pdf 0.1 MB) PICES Interns (pdf 0.1 MB) Report of the APN workshop on “Climate interactions and marine ecosystems” (pdf 0.6 MB) Photo highlights of PICES XIII (pdf 0.3 MB) Recent trends in waters of the subarctic NE Pacific – summer 2004 (pdf 0.1 MB) The state of the western North Pacific in the first half of 2004 (pdf 0.3 MB) The Bering Sea: Current status and recent events (pdf 0.1 MB) Study Group on Fisheries Ecosystem Responses to Recent Regime Shifts completes its mandate for the provision of scientific advice (pdf 0.1 MB) PICES Calendar (pdf 0.1 MB) The new PICES Working Group on Ecosystem-based management (pdf 0.05 MB) CO2 data integration activity for the North Pacific (pdf 0.2 MB) Carbon cycle changes in the North Pacific (pdf 0.8 MB) New and upcoming PICES publications (pdf 0.8 MB)

PICES Press, Vol. 12, No. 2, July 2004

The future of PICES [pdf, 1.7 MB] Paris by day - Symposium on "Quantative ecosystem indicators in fisheries management" [pdf, 0.2 MB] The Bering Sea: Current status and recent events [pdf, 0.4 MB] The state of the western North Pacific in the second half of 2003 [pdf, 0.7 MB] The state of the eastern North Pacific entering spring 2004 [pdf, 0.4 MB] PICES-IFEP Workshop on "In-situ iron enrichment experiments in the eastern and western subarctic Pacific" [pdf, 1.4 MB] Canadian SOLAS/PICES-IFEP session on "Response of the upper ocean to meso-scale iron enrichment" [pdf, 0.3 MB] Fisheries and ecosystem responses to recent regime shifts [pdf, 0.8 MB] PICES Interns [pdf, 0.8 MB] Did a regime shift occur in 1998 around Japan?- Highlights from a symposium addressing this question [pdf, 0.8 MB] The Global Ocean Carbon Observing System - Connecting national programs and regional networks [pdf, 1.7 MB] The North Pacific Ecosystem Metadatabase [pdf, 1.2 MB] International GLOBEC Symposium on "Climate variability and Sub-Arctic marine ecosystems" [pdf, 0.2 MB] PICES Calendar [pdf, 0.2 MB] PICES/GLOBEC Symposium on "Climate variability and ecosystem impacts on the North pacific: A basin-scale synthesis" [pdf, 0.2 MB]

PICES Press, Vol. 9, No. 2, July 2001

Cover [pdf, 0.2 Mb] Climate, biodiversity and ecosystems of the North Pacific [pp. 1-2] [pdf, 0.2 Mb] The state of the western North Pacific in the second half of 2000 [pp. 3-5] [pdf, 0.8 Mb] The status of the Bering Sea: June – December 2000 [pp. 6-7] [pdf, 1.5 Mb] The state of the eastern North Pacific since autumn 2000 [p. 8] [pdf, 0.3 Mb] Korean Yellow Sea Large Marine Ecosystem Program [pp. 9-12] [pdf, 0.5 Mb] Past and ongoing Mexican ecosystem research in the northeast Pacific Ocean [pp. 13-15] [pdf, 0.3 Mb] Vera Alexander [pp. 16-19] [pdf, 1.0 Mb] North Pacific CO2 data for the new millennium [pp. 20-21] [pdf, 0.3 Mb] PICES Higher Trophic Level Modelling Workshop [pp. 22-23] [pdf, 0.4 Mb] Argo Science Team 3rd Meeting (AST-3) [pp. 24-25] [pdf, 0.3 Mb] 2001 coast ocean / salmon ecosystem event [p. 26-27] [pdf, 0.3 Mb] Shifts in zooplankton abundance and species composition off central Oregon and southwestern British Columbia [pp. 28-29] [pdf, 0.3 Mb] The CLIVAR - Pacific Workshop [p. 30] [pdf, 0.2 Mb] PICES dialogue with Mexican scientists [p. 31] [pdf, 0.2 Mb] Announcements [p. 32] [pdf, 0.2 Mb]

Annual report 2003 - North Pacific Marine Science Organization (PICES). Twelfth meeting, Seoul, Republic of Korea, October 9-18, 2003

Report of Opening Session (pdf 58 KB) Report of Governing Council Meeting (pdf 244 KB) Report of 2003 interim Governing Council meeting Tenth Anniversary PICES Organization Review Report of the Finance and Administration Committee (pdf 102 KB) 2002 Auditor's report to the Organization Review of PICES Publication Program Reports of Science Board and Committees: Science Board/Governing Council interim meeting (pdf 81 KB) Science Board (pdf 95 KB) Study Group on PICES Capacity Building Biological Oceanography Committee (pdf 65 KB) Advisory Panel on Micronekton sampling gear intercalibration experiment Advisory Panel on Marine birds and mammals Fishery Science Committee (pdf 41 KB) Working Group 16 on Climate change, shifts to fish production, and fisheries management Marine Environmental Quality Committee (pdf 76 KB) Working Group 15 on Ecology of Harmful Algal Blooms (HABs) in the North Pacific Physical Oceanography and Climate Committee (pdf 70 KB) Working Group 17 on Biogeochemical data integration and synthesis Advisory Panel on North Pacific Data Buoy Technical Committee on Data Exchange (pdf 32 KB) Implementation Panel on the CCCC Program (pdf 64 KB) Nemuro Experimental Planning Team (NEXT) BASS Task Team (pdf 35 KB) Advisory Panel on Iron Fertilization Experiment MODEL Task Team (pdf 29 KB) MONITOR Task Team (pdf 30KB) REX Task Team (pdf 25 KB) Documenting Scientific Sessions (pdf 164 KB) List of Participants (pdf 60 KB) List of Acronyms (pdf 21 KB)