3 resultados para Cross-validation

em Aquatic Commons


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We develop and test a method to estimate relative abundance from catch and effort data using neural networks. Most stock assessment models use time series of relative abundance as their major source of information on abundance levels. These time series of relative abundance are frequently derived from catch-per-unit-of-effort (CPUE) data, using general linearized models (GLMs). GLMs are used to attempt to remove variation in CPUE that is not related to the abundance of the population. However, GLMs are restricted in the types of relationships between the CPUE and the explanatory variables. An alternative approach is to use structural models based on scientific understanding to develop complex non-linear relationships between CPUE and the explanatory variables. Unfortunately, the scientific understanding required to develop these models may not be available. In contrast to structural models, neural networks uses the data to estimate the structure of the non-linear relationship between CPUE and the explanatory variables. Therefore neural networks may provide a better alternative when the structure of the relationship is uncertain. We use simulated data based on a habitat based-method to test the neural network approach and to compare it to the GLM approach. Cross validation and simulation tests show that the neural network performed better than nominal effort and the GLM approach. However, the improvement over GLMs is not substantial. We applied the neural network model to CPUE data for bigeye tuna (Thunnus obesus) in the Pacific Ocean.

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Endoparasitic helminths were inventoried in 483 American plaice (Hippoglossoides platessoides) collected from the southern Gulf of St. Lawrence, NAFO (North Atlantic Fisheries Organization) division 4T, and Cape Breton Shelf (NAFO subdivision 4Vn) in September 2004 and May 2003, respectively. Forward stepwise discriminant function analysis (DFA) of the 4T samples indicated that abundances of the acanthocephalans Echinorhynchus gadi and Corynosoma strumosum were significant in the classification of plaice to western or eastern 4T. Cross validation yielded a correct classification rate of 79% overall, thereby supporting the findings of earlier mark-recapture studies which have indicated that 4T plaice comprise two discrete stocks: a western and an eastern stock. Further analyses including 4Vn samples, however, indicated that endoparasitic helminths may have little value as tags in the classification of plaice overwintering in Laurentian Channel waters of the Cabot Strait and Cape Breton Shelf, where mixing of 4T and 4Vn fish may occur.

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The gray snapper (Lutjanus griseus) is a temperate and tropical reef fish that is found along the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic coasts of the southeastern United States. The recreational fishery for gray snapper has developed rapidly in south Louisiana with the advent of harvest and seasonal restrictions on the established red snapper (L. campechanus) fishery. We examined the age and growth of gray snapper in Louisiana with the use of cross-sectioned sagittae. A total of 833 specimens, (441 males, 387 females, and 5 of unknown sex) were opportunistically sampled from the recreational fishery from August 1998 to August 2002. Males ranged in size from 222 to 732 mm total length (TL) and from 280 g to 5700 g total weight (TW) and females ranged from 254 to 756 mm TL and from 340 g to 5800 g TW. Both edge analysis and bomb radiocarbon analyses were used to validate otolith-based age estimates. Ages were estimated for 718 individuals; both males and females ranged from 1 to 28 years. The von Bertalanffy growth models derived from TL at age were Lt = 655.4{1–e[–0.23(t)]} for males, Lt = 657.3{1–e[– 0.21(t)]} for females, and L t = 656.4{1–e[– 0.22 (t)]} for all specimens of known sex. Catch curves were used to produce a total mortality (Z) estimate of 0.17. Estimates of M calculated with various methods ranged from 0.15 to 0.50; however we felt that M= 0.15 was the most appropriate estimate based on our estimate of Z. Full recruitment to the gray snapper recreational fishery began at age 4, was completed by age 8, and there was no discernible peak in the catch curve dome.