16 resultados para Combined lower upper bound estimation (LUBE)

em Aquatic Commons


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The natural mortality rate (M) of fish varies with size and age, although it is often assumed to be constant in stock assessments. Misspecification of M may bias important assessment quantities. We simulated fishery data, using an age-based population model, and then conducted stock assessments on the simulated data. Results were compared to known values. Misspecification of M had a negligible effect on the estimation of relative stock depletion; however, misspecification of M had a large effect on the estimation of parameters describing the stock recruitment relationship, age-specific selectivity, and catchability. If high M occurs in juvenile and old fish, but is misspecified in the assessment model, virgin biomass and catchability are often poorly estimated. In addition, stock recruitment relationships are often very difficult to estimate, and steepness values are commonly estimated at the upper bound (1.0) and overfishing limits tend to be biased low. Natural mortality can be estimated in assessment models if M is constant across ages or if selectivity is asymptotic. However if M is higher in old fish and selectivity is dome-shaped, M and the selectivity cannot both be adequately estimated because of strong interactions between M and selectivity.

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A method of identifying the beaks and estimating body weight and mantle length of 18 species of cephalopods from the Pacific Ocean is presented. Twenty specimens were selected from each of the following cephalopod species: Symplectoteuthis oualaniensis, Dosidicus gigas, Ommastrephes bartramii, S. luminosa, Todarodes pacificus, Nototodarus hawaiiensis, Ornithoteuthis volalilis, Hyaloteuthis pelagica, Onychoteuthis banksii, Pterygioteuthis giardi, Abraliopsis affinis, A. felis, Liocranchia reinhardti, Leachia danae, Histioteuthis heteropsis, H. dofleini, Gonalus onyx, and Loligo opalescens. Dimensions measured on the upper and lower beak are converted to ratios and compared individually among the species using an analysis of variance procedure with Tukey's omega and Duncan's multiple range tests. Significant differences (P =0.05) observed among the species' beak ratio means and structural characteristics are used to construct artificial keys for the upper and lower beaks of the 18 species. Upper and lower beak dimensions are used as independent variables in a linear regression model with mantle length and body weight (log transformed). (PDF file contains 56 pages.)

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This is the Effect of water quality on coarse fish productivity and movement in the Lower River Irwell and Upper Manchester Ship Canal: a watercourse recovering from historical pollution report produced by the Environment Agency in 2003. The aim of this study was to investigate the impact of water quality upon coarse fish population dynamics in a lowland, urban watercourse. All of the research carried was undertaken in the lower River Irwell and upper Manchester Ship Canal, between February 1998 and December 2001. Of particular interest was the natural sustainability of the urban fishery given recent concern raised in the angling community over an apparent decline in coarse fish populations in lowland rivers. The research described in this report has concentrated upon the role of water quality in determining coarse fish population dynamics, and in particular: The impact of water quality upon fish growth and productivity; The impact of poor water quality and low dissolved oxygen concentrations upon fish distribution and movement; The impact of water quality upon the sexual development of fish.

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We analyzed data from National Marine Fisheries Service bottom trawl surveys carried out triennially from 1984 to 1996 in the Gulf of Alaska (GOA). The continental shelf and upper slope (0–500 m) of the GOA support a rich demersal fish fauna dominated by arrowtooth flounder (Atheresthes stomias), walleye pollock (Theragra chalcogramma), Pacific cod (Gadus macrocephalus), Pacific halibut (Hippoglossus stenolepis), and Pacific Ocean perch (Sebastes alutus). Average catch per unit of effort (CPUE) of all groundfish species combined increased with depth and had a significant peak near the shelf break at 150–200 m. Species richness and diversity had significant peaks at 200–300 m. The western GOA was characterized by higher CPUEs and lower species richness and diversity than the eastern GOA. Highest CPUEs were observed in Shelikof Strait, along the shelf break and upper slope south of Kodiak Island, and on the banks and in the gullies northeast of Kodiak Island. Significant differences in total CPUE among surveys suggest a 40% increase in total groundfish biomass between 1984 and 1996. A multivariate analysis of the CPUE of 72 groundfish taxa revealed strong gradients in species composition with depth and from east to west, and a weak but significant trend in species composition over time. The trend over time was associated with increases in the frequency of occurrence and CPUE of at least eight taxa, including skates (Rajidae), capelin (Mallotus villosus), three flatfish species, and Pacific Ocean perch, and decreases in frequency of occurrence and CPUE of several sculpin (Myoxocephalus spp.) species. Results are discussed in terms of spatial and temporal patterns in productivity and in the context of their ecological and management implications.

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Empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis and regression analysis are used to investigate zonally averaged seasonal temperature anomaly patterns and trends in the lower stratosphere and upper troposphere. The first four EOFs explain 64 percent of the temperature variance and can be related, respectively, to the solar flux (SF) and El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), to the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), to atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) and turbidity (TB), and to ENSO. The signal of the fourth EOF is modulated in January to March by the solar flux, with the sense of the modulation determined by the phase of the quasi-biennial oscillation.

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ENGLISH: Annual estimates of the number of purse-seine sets made on tunas associated with dolphins are needed to estimate the total number of dolphins killed incidentally by the eastern Pacific tuna fishery. The most complete source of data, the Inter-American Tropical Tuna Commission's logbook data base, was used in this study. In the logbook data base, most sets are identified as being either associated with dolphins or not associated with dolphins. Some sets are not identified in this respect. However, the number of these unidentified sets which were associated with dolphins have been estimated by stratifying the logbook data according to whether or not any tuna were caught, whether or not the nearest identified set was associated with dolphins, and the distance to the nearest identified set. Most of the unidentified sets fell in strata characterized by a proportion of sets on tuna associated with dolphins that was lower than the overall unstratified proportion. Landings data were used to estimate the number of sets on tunas associated with dolphins from fishing trips not included in the logbook data base. SPANISH: Se necesitan las estimaciones anuales de la cantidad de lances realizados sobre atunes asociados con delfines para calcular todo el número de delfines muertos accidentalmente en la pesca atunera del Pacífico oriental. Se empleó en este estudio la fuente más completa-los datos de la Comisión Interamericana del Atún Tropical, proveniente de los cuadernos de bitácora. En éstos, la mayoría de los lances han sido identificados ya sea como asociados o no asociados con delfines. Algunos de los lances no han sido identificados a este respecto. Sin embargo, se ha estimado el número de estos lances asociados con delfines que no se habían identificado, al estratificar los datos de bitácora de acuerdo a si se había o no capturado atún, a si el lance identificado más próximo era o no un lance asociado con delfines y al averiguar la distancia del lance identificado más cercano. La mayoría de los lances sin identificar se colocan en los estratos caracterizados por una proporción de lances sobre atunes asociados con delfines, inferior a la proporción general sin estratificar. Se usaron los datos de los desembarques para calcular la cantidad de lances sobre atunes asociados con delfines en viajes pesqueros que no fueron incluídos en la base de los datos de bitácora. (PDF contains 73 pages.)

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ENGLISH: Monthly estimates of the abundance of yellowfin tuna by age groups and regions within the eastern Pacific Ocean during 1970-1988 are made, using purse-seine catch rates, length-frequency samples, and results from cohort analysis. The numbers of individuals caught of each age group in each logged purse-seine set are estimated, using the tonnage from that set and length-frequency distribution from the "nearest" length-frequency sample(s). Nearest refers to the closest length frequency sample(s) to the purse-seine set in time, distance, and set type (dolphin associated, floating object associated, skipjack associated, none of these, and some combinations). Catch rates are initially calculated as the estimated number of individuals of the age group caught per hour of searching. Then, to remove the effects of set type and vessel speed, they are standardized, using separate weiznted generalized linear models for each age group. The standardized catch rates at the center of each 2.5 0 quadrangle-month are estimated, using locally-weighted least-squares regressions on latitude, longitude and date, and then combined into larger regions. Catch rates within these regions are converted to numbers of yellowfin, using the mean age composition from cohort analysis. The variances of the abundance estimates within regions are large for 0-, 1-, and 5-year-olds, but small for 1.5- to 4-year-olds, except during periods of low fishing activity. Mean annual catch rate estimates for the entire eastern Pacific Ocean are significantly positively correlated with mean abundance estimates from cohort analysis for age groups ranging from 1.5 to 4 years old. Catch-rate indices of abundance by age are expected to be useful in conjunction with data on reproductive biology to estimate total egg production within regions. The estimates may also be useful in understanding geographic and temporal variations in age-specific availability to purse seiners, as well as age-specific movements. SPANISH: Se calculan estimaciones mensuales de la abundancia del atún aleta amarilla por grupos de edad y regiones en el Océano Pacífico oriental durante 1970-1988, usando tasas de captura cerquera, muestras de frecuencia de talla, y los resultados del análisis de cohortes. Se estima el número de individuos capturados de cada grupo de edad en cada lance cerquero registrado, usando el tonelaje del lance en cuestión y la distribución de frecuencia de talla de la(s) muestra(s) de frecuencia de talla "más cercana/s)," "Más cercana" significa la(s) muestra(s) de frecuencia de talla más parecida(s) al lance cerquero en cuanto a fecha, distancia, y tipo de lance (asociado con delfines, con objeto flotante, con barrilete, con ninguno de éstos, y algunas combinaciones). Se calculan inicialmente las tasas de captura como el número estimado de individuos del grupo de edad capturado por hora de búsqueda. A continuación, para eliminar los efectos del tipo de lance y la velocidad del barco, se estandardizan dichas tasas, usando un modelo lineal generalizado ponderado, para cada grupo por separado. Se estima la tasa de captura estandardizada al centro de cada cuadrángulo de 2.5°-mes, usando regresiones de mínimos cuadrados ponderados localmente por latitud, longitud, y fecha, y entonces combinándolas en regiones mayores. Se convierten las tasas de captura dentro de estas regiones en números de aletas amarillas individuales, usando el número promedio por edad proveniente del análisis de cohortes. Las varianzas de las estimaciones de la abundancia dentro de las regiones son grandes para los peces de O, 1, Y5 años de edad, pero pequeñas para aquellos de entre 1.5 Y4 años de edad, excepto durante períodos de poca actividad pesquera. Las estimaciones de la tasa de captura media anual para todo el Océano Pacífico oriental están correlacionadas positivamente de forma significativa con las estimaciones de la abundancia media del análisis de las cohortes para los grupos de edad de entre 1.5 y 4 años. Se espera que los índices de abundancia por edad basados en las tasas de captura sean útiles, en conjunto con datos de la biología reproductiva, para estimar la producción total de huevos por regiones. Las estimaciones podrían asimismo ser útiles para la comprensión de las variaciones geográficas y temporales de la disponibilidad específica por edad a los barcos cerqueros, y también las migraciones específicas por edad. (PDF contains 35 pages.)

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Sablefish (Anoplopoma fimbria) are often caught incidentally in longline fisheries and discarded, but the extent of mortality after release is unknown, which creates uncertainty for estimates of total mortality. We analyzed data from 10,427 fish that were tagged in research surveys and recovered in surveys and commercial fisheries up to 19 years later and found a decrease in recapture rates for fish originally captured at shallower depths (210–319 m) during the study, sustaining severe hooking injuries, and sustaining amphipod predation injuries. The overall estimated discard mortality rate was 11.71%. This estimate is based on an assumed survival rate of 96.5% for fish with minor hooking injuries and the observed recapture rates for sablefish at each level of severity of hook injury. This estimate may be lower than what actually occurs in commercial fisheries because fish are likely not handled as carefully as those in our study. Comparing our results with data on the relative occurrence of the severity of hooking injuries in longline fisheries may lead to more accurate accounting of total mortality attributable to fishing and to improved management of this species.

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Nearshore fisheries in the tropical Pacific play an important role, both culturally and as a reliable source of food security, but often remain under-reported in statistics, leading to undervaluation of their importance to communities. We re-estimated nonpelagic catches for Guam and the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands (CNMI), and summarize previous work for American Samoa for 1950−2002. For all islands combined, catches declined by 77%, contrasting with increasing trends indicated by reported data. For individual island entities, re-estima-tion suggested declines of 86%, 54%, and 79% for Guam, CNMI, and American Samoa, respectively. Except for Guam, reported data primarily represented commercial catches, and hence under-represented contributions by subsistence and recreational fisheries. Guam’s consistent use of creel surveys for data collection resulted in the most reliable reported catches for any of the islands considered. Our re-estimation makes the scale of under-reporting of total catches evident, and provides valuable baselines of likely historic patterns in fisheries catches.

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Size distribution within re- ported landings is an important aspect of northern Gulf of Mexico penaeid shrimp stock assessments. It reflects shrimp population characteristics such as numerical abundance of various sizes, age structure, and vital rates (e.g. recruitment, growth, and mortality), as well as effects of fishing, fishing power, fishing practices, sampling, size-grading, etc. The usual measure of shrimp size in archived landings data is count (C) the number of shrimp tails (abdomen or edible portion) per pound (0.4536 kg). Shrimp are marketed and landings reported in pounds within tail count categories. Statistically, these count categories are count class intervals or bins with upper and lower limits expressed in C. Count categories vary in width, overlap, and frequency of occurrence within the landings. The upper and lower limits of most count class intervals can be transformed to lower and upper limits (respectively) of class intervals expressed in pounds per shrimp tail, w, the reciprocal of C (i.e. w = 1/C). Age based stock assessments have relied on various algorithms to estimate numbers of shrimp from pounds landed within count categories. These algorithms required un- derlying explicit or implicit assumptions about the distribution of C or w. However, no attempts were made to assess the actual distribution of C or w. Therefore, validity of the algorithms and assumptions could not be determined. When different algorithms were applied to landings within the same size categories, they produced different estimates of numbers of shrimp. This paper demonstrates a method of simulating the distribution of w in reported biological year landings of shrimp. We used, as examples, landings of brown shrimp, Farfantepenaeus aztecus, from the northern Gulf of Mexico fishery in biological years 1986–2006. Brown shrimp biological year, Ti, is defined as beginning on 1 May of the same calendar year as Ti and ending on 30 April of the next calendar year, where subscript i is the place marker for biological year. Biological year landings encompass most if not all of the brown shrimp life cycle and life span. Simulated distributions of w reflect all factors influencing sizes of brown shrimp in the landings within a given biological year. Our method does not require a priori assumptions about the parent distributions of w or C, and it takes into account the variability in width, overlap, and frequency of occurrence of count categories within the landings. Simulated biological year distributions of w can be transformed to equivalent distributions of C. Our method may be useful in future testing of previously applied algorithms and development of new estimators based on statistical estimation theory and the underlying distribution of w or C. We also examine some applications of biological year distributions of w, and additional variables derived from them.

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Along the west coast of the United States, the potential impact of increasing pinniped populations on declining salmonid (Oncorhynchus spp.) stocks has become an issue of concern. Fisheries managers need species-specific estimates of consumption by pinnipeds to evaluate their impact on salmonid stocks. To estimate consumption, we developed a model that estimates diet composition by reconstructing prey biomass from fecal samples. We applied the model to data collected from harbor seals (Phoca vitulina) that are present year-round in the lower Columbia River where endangered stocks of salmonids pass as returning adults and as seaward-migrating smolts. Using the same data, we applied the split-sample frequency of occurrence model, which avoids reconstructing biomass by assuming that each fecal sample represents an equal volume of consumption and that within each sample each prey item represents an equal proportion of the volume. The two models for estimating diet composition yielded size-specific differences in consumption estimates that were as large as tenfold for the smallest and largest prey. Conclusions about the impact of harbor seal predation on adult salmonids, some of their largest prey species, remain uncertain without some appropriate rationale or further information (e.g. empirical captive studies) to discriminate between these models.

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The vertical and horizontal movements of southern bluefin tuna (SBT), Thunnus maccoyii, in the Great Australian Bight were investigated by ultrasonic telemetry. Between 1992 and 1994, sixteen tuna were tracked for up to 49 h with depth or combined temperature-depth transmitting tags. The average swimming speeds (measured over the ground) over entire tracks ranged from 0.5 to 1.4 m/s or 0.5 to 1.4 body lengths/s. The highest sustained swimming speed recorded was 2.5 m/s for 18 hours. Horizontal movements were often associated with topographical features such as lumps, reefs, islands and the shelf break. They spent long periods of time at the surface during the day (nearly 30%), which would facilitate abundance estimation by aerial survey. At night, they tended to remain just below the surface, but many remained in the upper 10 m throughout the night. SBT were often observed at the thermocline interface or at the surface while travelling. A characteristic feature of many tracks was sudden dives before dawn and after sunset during twilight, followed by a gradual return to their original depth. It is suggested that this is a behavior evolved to locate the scattering layer and its associated prey when SBT are in waters of sufficient depth. SBT maintained a difference between stomach and ambient temperature of up to 9°C.

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EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): Tidal marsh sediments collected from Browns Island in the lower Sacramento/San Joaquin Delta, California, are used to reconstruct environmental variability over the past 6.8 ka. Calibrated radiocarbon dates provide chronostratigraphic control. Trace metal analyses, grain-size variability, organic content, and macrofossils are used to define short- and long-term variations in relative salinity and inundation frequency. Aggradation began in subtidal fresh water conditions about 6.8 ka. Subtidal aggradation of clayey silts continued until about 6.3 ka, when conditions shifted toward a lower intertidal brackish marsh environment. By 5.1 ka, a brackish marsh plain had evolved, with surface water freshening after 4.1 ka. Conditions returned to brackish similar to the present after 2.3 ka.

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A combined hot and cold smoking kiln has been constructed for use at Lake Turkana, Kenya. Used for cold smoking, the kiln's main advantages over the traditional kilns used in this area are its greater smoking capacity and lower firewood consumption. Having the option of using the same smoke house for cold and hot smoking reduces the total construction costs for an operator producing both types of smoke cured product. The hot smoking process was found to require markedly less firewood than cold smoking, a fact of considerable importance in desert or semi-desert areas with sparse vegetation.

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The rule of light on the timing of maturation and spawning in tropical and subtropical regions is not clear well, because the reproductive cycle in these systems is lunar synchronized. In this study, thus, the effects of different light regimes were investigated on maturational progress of whitespotted rabbitfish, Siganus sutor, the commercial species in Persian Gulf and Oman Sea. During prespawning season, 50 adult fish were randomly divided into ten 300-l tanks (n=5). The fish in control tank received indoor light condition and the fish in each other tanks were exposed to nine different combinations of photoperiod (8L: 16D, 12L: 12D, 16L: 8D) and light intensity (1000, 2000, 3000 lux). After 60 days, GSI and HSI values, serum levels of estradiol (E2), testosterone (T), 17-α hydroxyprogestrone (OHP), calcium (Ca2+) and gonad histology were evaluated for females and males. In females the GSI mean values of exposed fish increased in comparison with control except for fish were kept under 8L, 2000 lux (tank 8). These differences were significant only for fishes in tank 7 (8L, 3000 lux). In the cases of HSI, the results were converse, so that, the most of thanks showed significant decreasing than fishes reared under indoor condition. Morphology and histology study of Ovaries showed three developmental phases including 3, 4 and chiefly 5 that were parallel with GSI values. Fortheremore the serum levels of E2 was recorded between 0.54-15.8 ng/ml in different fish and their mean values were lower than control in all treatmants (P> 0.05). In males, the similar results were obtained. The GSI and HSI mean values in experimental regimes compared with control were upper and lower, respectively, except for fishes were reared in tank 1 (16L, 3000 lux). Testes histology of fishes were reared under different regimes showed signs of stage 5, since no blood vessels observed and thick milt exuded on slight pressure. The mean values of testosterone consentration in fishes were kept in tanks 1 and 6 (12L, 1000 lux) were higher and in other ones were lower than control group. It is also noted that the OHP and Ca2+ had diverse results including increasing and decreasing mean values than control. So, these factors contrary to E2 and T were not suitable to evaluation of maturity in both sexes. On the basis of ovarian structure in stage 5, oocyte development pattern in this species was group synchronous. So, increased mean of GSI versus decreased values of HSI, E2 and perhaps Ca2+ were the signs of improved maturation. But in males, reduced levels of T and similarity of testes morphology in all samples caused that GSI mean value was the only indicator for differentiating among treatments. These findings suggest that alternations were used in light regimes have been the reason of improved maturity in all treatments except fishes reared in tank 8. The ١٠٧ rule of light intensity on induction of maturity was cleared by comparision between fishes in tanks 4, 5, 6 and control group. Because day length was the same whereas fishes in tanks 4, 5 and 6 were exposed to increased light intensity compared with control. This fact verified by results was obtained from fishes in tanks 9 and especially 7, since photoperiod in this group was lower than control. So, higher intensity was considered as the reason of alternations. Contrasting with indoor condition, Induced maturity was also cleared for fishes were kept in tanks 1, 2 and 3, where both of light duration and intensity were increased. But, the rule of photoperiod was individually demonstrated when obtained results were compared with similar light intensities in other treatments. In conclusion, with comparison among different light regimes it is declared that siganids were kept under light condition of tank 2 including 16h light duration combined with 2000 lux intensity showed the best signs of sexual maturation in both sexes. On the basis of this study, setting up the spring light condition during prespawning season induces maturation in withspotted rabbitfish. This improvement not only by influence of photoperiod or light intensity, separately, but obtained through interaction between them. Thus, determination of threshold and resistance to light be recommended before exposure, although using proper regime during suitable time are necessary to achieve purposes considerably.