Research in development: learning from the CGIAR Research Program on Aquatic Agricultural Systems

This working paper aims to synthesize and share learning from the experience of adapting and operationalizing the Research in Development(RinD) approach to agricultural research in the five hubs under the The CGIAR Research Program on Aquatic Agricultural Systems. It seeks to share learning about how the approach is working in context and to explore the outcomes it is achieving through initial implementation over 3 ½ years. This learning can inform continuation of agricultural research in the second phase of the CGIAR research programs and will be useful to others aiming to implement research programs that seek to equitably build capacity to innovate in complex social-ecological systems. Each of the chapters in this working paper have shown that RinD has produced a range of outcomes that were often unexpected and broader in scope than might result from other approaches to agricultural research. RinD also produces innovations, and there is evidence that it builds capacity to innovate.

Learning from the lagoon: Research in development in Solomon Islands

A major challenge for international agricultural research is to find ways to improve the nutrition and incomes of people left behind by the Green Revolution. To better address the needs of the most marginal and vulnerable people, the CGIAR Research Program on Aquatic Agricultural Systems (AAS) developed the research-in-development (RinD) approach. In 2012, WorldFish started to implement RinD in Solomon Islands. By building people’s capacity to analyze and address development problems, actively engaging relevant stakeholders, and linking research to these processes, RinD aims to develop an alternative approach to addressing hunger and poverty. This report describes the key principles and implementation process, and assesses the emergent outcomes of this participatory, systems-oriented and transformative research approach in Solomon Islands.

Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States: a state of knowledge report from the U.S. Global Change Research Program

Executive Summary: Observations show that warming of the climate is unequivocal. The global warming observed over the past 50 years is due primarily to human-induced emissions of heat-trapping gases. These emissions come mainly from the burning of fossil fuels (coal, oil, and gas), with important contributions from the clearing of forests, agricultural practices, and other activities. Warming over this century is projected to be considerably greater than over the last century. The global average temperature since 1900 has risen by about 1.5ºF. By 2100, it is projected to rise another 2 to 11.5ºF. The U.S. average temperature has risen by a comparable amount and is very likely to rise more than the global average over this century, with some variation from place to place. Several factors will determine future temperature increases. Increases at the lower end of this range are more likely if global heat-trapping gas emissions are cut substantially. If emissions continue to rise at or near current rates, temperature increases are more likely to be near the upper end of the range. Volcanic eruptions or other natural variations could temporarily counteract some of the human-induced warming, slowing the rise in global temperature, but these effects would only last a few years. Reducing emissions of carbon dioxide would lessen warming over this century and beyond. Sizable early cuts in emissions would significantly reduce the pace and the overall amount of climate change. Earlier cuts in emissions would have a greater effect in reducing climate change than comparable reductions made later. In addition, reducing emissions of some shorter-lived heat-trapping gases, such as methane, and some types of particles, such as soot, would begin to reduce warming within weeks to decades. Climate-related changes have already been observed globally and in the United States. These include increases in air and water temperatures, reduced frost days, increased frequency and intensity of heavy downpours, a rise in sea level, and reduced snow cover, glaciers, permafrost, and sea ice. A longer ice-free period on lakes and rivers, lengthening of the growing season, and increased water vapor in the atmosphere have also been observed. Over the past 30 years, temperatures have risen faster in winter than in any other season, with average winter temperatures in the Midwest and northern Great Plains increasing more than 7ºF. Some of the changes have been faster than previous assessments had suggested. These climate-related changes are expected to continue while new ones develop. Likely future changes for the United States and surrounding coastal waters include more intense hurricanes with related increases in wind, rain, and storm surges (but not necessarily an increase in the number of these storms that make landfall), as well as drier conditions in the Southwest and Caribbean. These changes will affect human health, water supply, agriculture, coastal areas, and many other aspects of society and the natural environment. This report synthesizes information from a wide variety of scientific assessments (see page 7) and recently published research to summarize what is known about the observed and projected consequences of climate change on the United States. It combines analysis of impacts on various sectors such as energy, water, and transportation at the national level with an assessment of key impacts on specific regions of the United States. For example, sea-level rise will increase risks of erosion, storm surge damage, and flooding for coastal communities, especially in the Southeast and parts of Alaska. Reduced snowpack and earlier snow melt will alter the timing and amount of water supplies, posing significant challenges for water resource management in the West. (PDF contains 196 pages)

The terrestrial paleorecord of climate change over the past thousand years in the Canadian Rockies [abstract]

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): High alpine environments provide a variety of paleorecords based on physical (glaciers, glacio-lacustrine sedimentation) and biological systems (tree rings, tree-line fluctuations). These records have varying temporal resolution and contain different climate-related signals but, in concert, provide a more comprehensive reconstruction of past climates than is possible from any single archive.

Inter-decadal climate variability in the Southern Hemisphere: evidence from Tasmanian tree rings over the past three millennia

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): The characterization of inter-decadal climate variability in the Southern Hemisphere is severely constrained by the shortness of the instrumental climate records. To help relieve this constraint, we have developed and analyzed a reconstruction of warm-season (November-April) temperatures from Tasmanian tree rings that now extends back to 800 BC. A detailed analysis of this reconstruction in the time and frequency domains indicates that much of the inter-decadal variability is principally confined to four frequency bands with mean periods of 31, 57, 77, and 200 years. ... In so doing, we show how a future greenhouse warming signal over Tasmania could be masked by these natural oscillations unless they are taken into account.

Eastern tropical Pacific corals monitor low latitude climate of the past 400 years

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): We have measured coral growth band thickness and skeletal stable isotopic composition through a 371-year transect (AD 1583-1954) from a massive specimen of Pavona clavus from the Galápagos Islands. ... We observe a general cooling trend during 1860-1954, corresponding to the end of the Little Ice Age, an interval characterized by general warming at many mid-latitude sites. Variance at sunspot cycle frequencies in growth rate, stable isotopic, and trace element composition implies a direct or indirect link between the solar cycle and climate modulation in the eastern Pacific.

Evidence from the Pacific Northwest for solar modulation of climate and of northern ecosystems

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): The 250-year net annual snow accumulation, or mass balance, time series derived from the Mt. Logan (Yukon) ice core has been spectrally analyzed and is found to contain a nominal 11-year waveform. The stable isotope time series contains a significant amount of power between 9 and 13 years, although this record is evidently not a straightforward proxy for air temperatures. The signal in the mass balance time series exhibits a close relationship with the sunspot cycle waveform and is, therefore, assumed to be related to it. Waveforms showing a high correlation with the solar cycle are found in other climate data in the region. ... Taken collectively, the data point to a link between solar variability, atmospheric variability, climate, and selected ecological dynamics in the Pacific Northwest, but other data, not presented, indicate these relationships may hold elsewhere. So far, the evidence is empirical; complete details of the physical mechanisms involved have yet to be synthesized in a satisfactory way.

From the individual to the community and beyond: water quality, stress indicators and key species in coastal waters

This review examines water quality and stress indicators at levels of organisation from the individual to the community and beyond by means of three case studies concentrating on rocky shores within the north-east Atlantic. Responses of dogwhelks (Nucella) to tributyltin pollution from antifouling paints is examined as the main case study. There are effects at the individual level (development of male sexual characteristics in the female leading to effective sterility) and population level (reduction in juveniles, few females and eventual population disappearance of dogwhelks in badly contaminated areas) but information on community level effects of dogwhelk demise is sparse. Such effects were simulated by dogwhelk removal experiments on well studied, moderately exposed ledges on shores on the Isle of Man. The removal of dogwhelks reduced the size and longevity of newly established Fucus clumps that had escaped grazing. Removal of dogwhelks also increased the likelihood of algal escapes. In a factorial experiment dogwhelks were shown to be less important than limpets \{Patella) in structuring communities but still had a significant modifying effect by increasing the probability of algal escapes. Community level responses to stress on rocky shores are then explored by reference to catastrophic impacts such as oil spills, using the Torrey Canyon as a case study. Recovery of the system in response to this major perturbation took between 10-15 years through a series of damped oscillations. The final case study is that of indicators of ecosystem level change in response to climate fluctuations, using ratios of northern \{Semibalanus balanoides) and southern (Chthamalus spp.) barnacles. Indices derived from counts on the shore show good correlations with inshore sea-water temperatures after a 2-year lag phase. The use of barnacles to measure offshore changes is reviewed. The discussion considers the use of bioindicators at various levels of organisation.

Stratigraphy and chronology of Holocene marine sedment core from the California continental borderland and their paleoceanographic/paleoclimatic significance [abstract]

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): Paleomagnetic secular variation (PSV) records have been recovered from three marine sediment cores from Santa Catalina basin, California continental borderland, in order to more accurately date these late Quaternary sediments. ... The sedimentation rates derived from the time/depth curves suggest a constant rate of 20-25 cm/ky for the last 6700 years throughout Santa Catalina basin, and more variable rates (but constant within each core) of 13-86 cm/ky prior to 6700 ybp. The sedimentation rates prior to 6700 ybp are lowest in the southcentral portion of the basin and systematically increase toward the north end of the basin. These results suggest that 6700±300 ybp marks a major change in paleoceanographic processes within Santa Catalina basin.

Dialogue to address the roots of resource competition: Lessons for policy and practice

Conflict management is an intrinsic element of natural resource management, and becomes increasingly important amid growing pressure on natural resources from local uses, as well as from external drivers such as climate change and international investment. If policymakers and practitioners aim to truly improve livelihood resilience and reduce vulnerabilities of poor rural households, issues of resource competition and conflict management cannot be ignored. This synthesis report summarizes outcomes and lessons from three ecoregions: Lake Victoria, with a focus on Uganda; Lake Kariba, with a focus on Zambia; and Tonle Sap Lake in Cambodia. Partners used a common approach to stakeholder engagement and action research that we call “Collaborating for Resilience”. In each region, partners assisted local stakeholders in developing a shared understanding of risks and opportunities, weighing alternative actions, developing action plans, and evaluating and learning from the outcomes. These experiences demonstrate that investing in capacities for conflict management is practical and can contribute to broader improvements in resource governance.

An 800-year paleoflood record from the Sacramento Valley, California [abstract]

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): Four cores recovered from Little Packer Lake in Glenn County, California, have provided a paleoflood record for the past 800 years. ... The sequence of flood deposits in the top 2 meters of the record shows a reasonable agreement with the known history of floods during the past 150 years. At least three major flood events are indicated for AD 1400-1525, although these dates may have to be revised when more dates become available.

Evidence for changes in large-scale upwelling in the California Current over the past 700 years [abstract]

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): Bidecadal radiocarbon measurements on tree rings provide a detailed series of carbon-14 activities at isotopic equilibrium with atmospheric carbon dioxide. ... Most marine environments do not permit development of a comparable series of carbon-14 ages with which to compare the terrestrial tree ring series. However, we have recently begun work on such a series using material from the varved sediments of the Santa Barbara Basin off southern California. ... We now have a nearly continuous record of carbon-14 dates representing the age of the water over the upper 100 meters. ... The ocean reservoir ages show an increase prior to 1450 and a progressive decrease with time after 1450. Although there may be other explanations, we believe this trend is principally the result of changes in large-scale upwelling of water from below 500 meters. These changes were probably also associated with changes in the intensity of the California Current.

Oxygen isotope analysis of corals from the Gulf of California and the Gulf of Panama: application and implications for coral-based paleoclimate reconstructions [abstract]

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): Coral-based reconstruction of past variability of sea surface conditions is improving our understanding of the tropical ocean-atmosphere system. We present oxygen isotope records from corals collected near the tip of Baja California (Baja) and the Gulf of Panama (Saboga).

Good Morning, America! The explosive U.S. awakening to the need for adaptation

Since the early years of the 21st century, and in particular since 2007, the U.S. has been awakening rapidly to the fact that climate change is underway and that even if stringent efforts are undertaken to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions, adaptation to the unavoidable impacts from the existing commitment to climate change is still needed and needs to be begun now. This report provides an historical overview of the public, political, and scientific concern with adaptation in the United States. It begins by briefly distinguishing ongoing, historical adaptation to environmental circumstances from deliberate adaptation to human‐induced climate change. It then describes the shift from the early concerns with climate change and adaptation to the more recent awakening to the need for a comprehensive approach to managing the risks from climate change. Ranging from the treatment of the topic in the news media to the drafting of bills in Congress, to state and local government activities with considerable engagement of NGOs, scientists and consultants, it is apparent that adaptation has finally, and explosively, emerged on the political agenda as a legitimate and needed subject for debate. At the same time, the current policy rush is not underlain by widespread public engagement and mobilization nor does it rest on a solid research foundation. Funding for vulnerability and adaptation research, establishing adequate decision support institutions, as well as the building of the necessary capacity in science, the consulting world, and in government agencies, lags far behind the need. (PDF contains 42 pages)