Report of the Study Group on “ Fisheries and Ecosystem Response to Recent Regime Shifts”

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1. DECADAL-SCALE CLIMATE EVENTS 1.1 Introduction 1.2 Basin-scale Patterns 1.3 Long Time Series in the North Pacific 1.4 Decadal Climate Variability in Ecological Regions of the North Pacific 1.5 Mechanisms 1.6 References 2. COHERENT REGIONAL RESPONSES 2.1 Introduction 2.2 Central North Pacific (CNP) 2.3 California Current System (CCS) 2.4 Gulf of Alaska (GOA) 2.5 Bering Sea and Aleutian Islands 2.6 Western North Pacific (WNP) 2.7 Coherence in Regional Responses to the 1998 Regime Shift 2.8 Climate Indicators for Detecting Regime Shifts 2.9 References 3. IMPLICATIONS FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF MARINE RESOURCES 3.1 Introduction 3.2 Response Time of Biota to Regime Shifts 3.3 Response Time of Management to Regime Shifts 3.4 Provision of Stock Assessment Advice 3.5 Decision Rules 3.6 References 4. SUGGESTED LITERATURE 4.1 Climate Regimes 4.2 Impacts on Lower Trophic Levels 4.3 Impacts on Fish and Higher Trophic Levels 4.4 Impacts on Ecosystems and Possible Mechanisms 4.5 Regimes and Fisheries Management APPENDIX 1: RECENT ECOSYSTEM CHANGES IN THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC A1.1 Introduction A1.2 Physical Oceanography A1.3 Lower Trophic Levels A1.4 Invertebrates A1.5 Fishes A1.6 References APPENDIX 2: RECENT ECOSYSTEM CHANGES IN THE CALIFORNIA CURRENT SYSTEM A2.1 Introduction A2.2 Physical Oceanography A2.3 Lower Trophic Levels A2.4 Invertebrates A2.5 Fishes A2.6 References APPENDIX 3: RECENT ECOSYSTEM CHANGES IN THE GULF OF ALASKA A3.1 Introduction A3.2 Physical Oceanography A3.3 Lower Trophic Levels A3.4 Invertebrates A3.5 Fishes A3.6 Higher Trophic Levels A3.7 Coherence in Gulf of Alaska Fish A3.8 Combined Standardized Indices of Recruitment and Survival Rate A3.9 References APPENDIX 4: RECENT ECOSYSTEM CHANGES IN THE BERING SEA AND ALEUTIAN ISLANDS A4.1 Introduction A4.2 Bering Sea Environmental Variables and Physical Oceanography A4.3 Bering Sea Lower Trophic Levels A4.4 Bering Sea Invertebrates A4.5 Bering Sea Fishes A4.6 Bering Sea Higher Trophic Levels A4.7 Coherence in Bering Sea Fish Responses A4.8 Combined Standardized Indices of Bering Fish Recruitment and Survival Rate A4.9 Aleutian Islands A4.10 References APPENDIX 5: RECENT ECOSYSTEM CHANGES IN THE WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC A5.1 Introduction A5.2 Sea of Okhotsk A5.3 Tsushima Current Region and Kuroshio/Oyashio Current Region A5.4 Bohai Sea, Yellow Sea, and East China Sea A5.5 References (168 page document)

Channel Islands marine protected areas first 5 years of monitoring: 2003-2008 [Report produced by the California Department of Fish and Game in collaboration with the Partnership for Interdisciplinary Studies of Coastal Oceans (PISCO), Channel Islands National Marine Sanctuary, and Channel Islands National Park]

The Channel Islands—sometimes called the Galapagos of North America—are known for their great beauty, rich biodiversity, cultural heritage, and recreational opportunities. In 1980, in recognition of the islands’ importance, the United States Congress established a national park encompassing 5 of California’s Channel Islands (Santa Barbara, Anacapa, Santa Cruz, Santa Rosa, and San Miguel Islands) and waters within 1 nautical mile of the islands. In the same year, Congress declared a national marine sanctuary around each of these islands, including waters up to 6 nautical miles offshore. Approximately 60,000 people visit the Channel Islands each year for aquatic recreation such as fishing, sailing, kayaking, wildlife watching, surfing, and diving. Another 30,000 people visit the islands for hiking, camping, and sightseeing. Dozens of commercial fishing boats based in Santa Barbara, Ventura, Oxnard, and other ports go to the Channel Islands to catch squid, spiny lobster, sea urchin, rockfish, crab, sheephead, flatfish, and sea cucumber, among other species. In the past few decades, advances in fishing technology and the rising number of fishermen, in conjunction with changing ocean conditions and diseases, have contributed to declines in some marine fishes and invertebrates at the Channel Islands. In 1998, citizens from Santa Barbara and Ventura proposed establishment of no-take marine reserves at the Channel Islands, beginning a 4-year process of public meetings, discussions, and scientific analyses. In 2003, the California Fish and Game Commission designated a network of marine protected areas (MPAs) in state waters around the northern Channel Islands. In 2006 and 2007, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) extended the MPAs into the national marine sanctuary’s deeper, federal waters. To determine if the MPAs are protecting marine species and habitats, scientists are monitoring ecological changes. They are studying changes in habitats; abundance and size of species of interest; the ocean food web and ecosystem; and movement of fish and invertebrates from MPAs to surrounding waters. Additionally, scientists are monitoring human activities such as commercial and recreational fisheries, and compliance with MPA regulations. This booklet describes some results from the first 5 years of monitoring the Channel Islands MPAs. Although 5 years is not long enough to determine if the MPAs will accomplish all of their goals, this booklet offers a glimpse of the changes that are beginning to take place and illustrates the types of information that will eventually be used to assess the MPAs’ effectiveness. (PDF contains 24 pages.)

Studies of physical, chemical, and biological oceanography in the vicinity of the Revilla Gigedo Islands during the “Island Current Survey” of 1957

ENGLISH: The tendency of the tunas, especially the yellowfin (Neothunnus macropterus) to be more abundant in the near vicinity of islands and seamounts, or "banks", than in the surrounding oceanic areas, is well known to commercial fishermen. This has been confirmed by statistical analysis of fishing vessel logbook records, which demonstrates that the catch-per-day's-fishing is, indeed, higher in the near vicinity of these features. It is hypothesized that islands and seamounts cause changes in the physical circulation or the biochemical cycle resulting in greater supplies of food for tunas in their immediate environs. In order to examine this hypothesis, and in order to study possible mechanisms involved, the "Island Current Survey" was undertaken from 8 May to 12 June, 1957, under the joint auspices of the Inter-American Tropical Tuna Commission and the Scripps Institution of Oceanography. Surveys of varying nature and extent were made from M/V Spencer F. Baird near Alijos Rocks, Clarion Island, Shimada Bank and Socorro Island (Figure 1). These studies sought to provide knowledge of the action of islands and seamounts in arresting, stalling or deflecting the mean current past them, in establishing convergence and divergence in the surface flow, in producing vertical motion (mixing and upwelling), and in influencing the primary production and the standing crops of phytoplankton and zooplankton. Each survey is discussed below in detail. Observations made at a front on 10 June will be discussed in another paper. SPANISH: Los pescadores que realizan la pesca comercial conocen muy bien la tendencia de los atunes, en particular del atún aleta amarilla (Neothunnus macropterus), de presentarse en mayor abundancia en las cercanías inmediatas a las islas y cimas submarinas, o "bancos", que en las áreas oceánicas circundantes. Este hecho ha sido confirmado par el análisis estadístico de los registros de los cuadernos de bitácora de las embarcaciones pesqueras, demostrándose que la captura par dias de pesca es, en efecto, más abundante en la inmediata proximidad de tales formaciones. Hipotéticamente se admite que las islas y las cimas submarinas provocan cambios en la circulación física o en el ciclo bioquímico, lo cual se pone de manifiesto a través de un mejor abastecimiento de alimento para los atunes en sus cercanías inmediatas. Con la finalidad de verificar esta hipótesis y de estudiar los mecanismos que ella involucra, se realizó la “Island Current Survey” del 8 de mayo al 12 de junio de 1957, bajo los auspicios de la Comisión Interamericana del Atún Tropical y de la Institución Scripps de Oceanografia. Con el barco Spencer F. Baird se hicieron observaciones de distintas clases y alcances cerca de las Rocas Alijos, la Isla Clarion, el Banco Shimada y la Isla Socorro (Figura 1). Estos estudios tuvieron por objeto adquirir conocimientos sobre la acción que ejercen las islas y cimas submarinas sobre la corriente promedio, ya sea deteniéndola, reduciendo su velocidad o desviando su curso, así como estableciendo convergencia o divergencia en su flujo de superficie, o provocando un movimiento vertical (mezcla y afloramiento) e influyendo en la producción primaria y en las existencias de fitoplancton y zooplancton. Cada operación será tratada a continuación por separado. Las observaciones hechas el dia 10 de junio sobre un frente serán objeto de otra publicación.

ROV-based Deep Water Monitoring of the Northern Channel Islands Marine Protected Areas Annual Report - 2007

Research cruises were conducted in August-October 2007 to complete the third annual remotely operated vehicle (ROV)-based assessments of nearshore rocky bottom finfish at ten sites in the northern Channel Islands. Annual surveys at the Channel Islands have been conducted since 2004 at four sites and were expanded to ten sites in 2005 to monitor potential marine protected area (MPA)effects on baseline fish density. Six of the ten sites are in MPAs and four in nearby fished reference areas. In 2007 the amount of soft-only substrate on the 141 track lines surveyed was again estimated in real-time in order to target rocky bottom habitat. These real-time estimates of hard and mixed substrate for all ten sites averaged 57%, 1% more than the post-processed average of 56%. Surveys generated 69.9 km of usable video for use in finfish density calculations, with target rocky bottom habitat accounting for 56% (39.1 km) for all sites combined. The amount of rocky habitat sampled by site averaged 3.8 km and ranged from 3.3 km sampled at South Point, a State Marine Reserve (SMR) off Santa Rosa Island, to 4.7 km at Anacapa Island SMR. A sampling goal of 75 transects at all 10 sites was met using real-time habitat estimates combined with precautionary over-sampling by 10%. A total of seventy kilometers of sampling is projected to produce at least seventy-five 100 m2 transects per site. Thirteen of 26 finfish taxa observed were selected for quantitative evaluation over the time series based on a minimum criterion of abundance (0.05/100 m2). Ten of these 13 finfish appear to be more abundant at the state marine reserves relative to fished areas when densities were averaged across the 2005 to 2007 period. One of the species that appears to be more abundant in fished areas was señorita, a relatively small prey species that is not a commercial or recreational target. (PDF contains 83 pages.)

Fish assemblages and benthic habitats of Buck Island Reef National Monument (St. Croix, U.S. Virgin Islands) and the surrounding seascape: A characterization of spatial and temporal patterns

Since 1999, NOAA’s Biogeography Branch of the Center for Coastal Monitoring and Assessment (CCMA-BB) has been working with federal and territorial partners to characterize, monitor, and assess the status of the marine environment around northeastern St. Croix, U.S. Virgin Islands. This effort is part of the broader NOAA Coral Reef Conservation Program’s (CRCP) National Coral Reef Ecosystem Monitoring Program (NCREMP). With support from CRCP’s NCREMP, CCMA conducts the “Caribbean Coral Reef Ecosystem Monitoring project” (CREM) with goals to: (1) spatially characterize and monitor the distribution, abundance, and size of marine fauna associated with shallow water coral reef seascapes (mosaics of coral reefs, seagrasses, sand and mangroves); (2) relate this information to in situ fine-scale habitat data and the spatial distribution and diversity of habitat types using benthic habitat maps; (3) use this information to establish the knowledge base necessary for enacting management decisions in a spatial setting; (4) establish the efficacy of those management decisions; and (5) develop data collection and data management protocols. The monitoring effort in northeastern St. Croix was conducted through partnerships with the National Park Service (NPS) and the Virgin Islands Department of Planning and Natural Resources (VI-DPNR). The geographical focal point of the research is Buck Island Reef National Monument (BIRNM), a protected area originally established in 1961 and greatly expanded in 2001; however, the work also encompassed a large portion of the recently created St. Croix East End Marine Park (EEMP). Project funding is primarily provided by NOAA CRCP, CCMA and NPS. In recent decades, scientific and non-scientific observations have indicated that the structure and function of the coral reef ecosystem around northeastern St. Croix have been adversely impacted by a wide range of environmental stressors. The major stressors have included the mass Diadema die off in the early 1980s, a series of hurricanes beginning with Hurricane Hugo in 1989, overfishing, mass mortality of Acropora corals due to disease and several coral bleaching events, with the most severe mass bleaching episode in 2005. The area is also an important recreational resource supporting boating, snorkeling, diving and other water based activities. With so many potential threats to the marine ecosystem and a dramatic change in management strategy in 2003 when the park’s Interim Regulations (Presidential Proclamation No. 7392) established BIRNM as one of the first fully protected marine areas in NPS system, it became critical to identify existing marine fauna and their spatial distributions and temporal dynamics. This provides ecologically meaningful data to assess ecosystem condition, support decision making in spatial planning (including the evaluation of efficacy of current management strategies) and determine future information needs. The ultimate goal of the work is to better understand the coral reef ecosystems and to provide information toward protecting and enhancing coral reef ecosystems for the benefit of the system itself and to sustain the many goods and services that it offers society. This Technical Memorandum contains analysis of the first six years of fish survey data (2001-2006) and associated characterization of the benthos (1999-2006). The primary objectives were to quantify changes in fish species and assemblage diversity, abundance, biomass and size structure and to provide spatially explicit information on the distribution of key species or groups of species and to compare community structure inside (protected) versus outside (fished) areas of BIRNM. (PDF contains 100 pages).

The ecological basis of fishery yield of the Puerto Rico-Virgin Islands Insular Shelf: 1987 Assessment

A literature review was conducted to locate information on the flow of energy from primary producers to the fishery stocks of the Puerto Rican-Virgin Islands insular shelf. This report uses site-specific information to describe the major ecological subsystems, or habitats, of the region, to identify the more common species and the subsystems in which they occur, to quantify productivity and biomass, and to outline trophic relationships. Discussions on each topic and subsystem vary in substance and detail, being limited by the availability and accessibility of information. (PDF contains 189 pages) Seven distinct subsystems are described: mangrove estuary, seagrass bed, coral reef, algal plain, sand/mud bottom, shelf break, and overlying pelagic. Over 50 tables provide lists of species found in each habitat on various surveys dating back to 1956. Estimates of density, relative abundance, and productivity are provided when possible. We evaluated whether sufficient information exists to support an analysis of the energy basis of fishery production in the area, beginning with the design and development of an ecosystem model. Data needs in three categories - species lists, biomass, and trophic relations - were examined for each subsystem and for each of three species groups - primary producers, invertebrates, and fish. We concluded that adequate data, sufficient for modeling purposes, are available in 16 (25%) of 64 categories; limited data, those requiring greater extrapolation, are available in 35 (55%) categories; and no data are available in 13 (20%) categories. The best-studied subsystems are seagrass beds and coral reefs, with at least limited data in all categories. Invertebrates, the intermediate link in the food web between primary producers and fishes, are the least quantified group in the region. Primary production and fishes, however, are relatively well-studied, providing sufficient data to support an ecosystem-level analysis and to initiate a modeling effort.

A scientific forum on the Gulf of Mexico: The Islands in the Stream Concept. Proceedings of the Forum: 23 January 2008, Keating Education Center, Mote Marine Laboratory, Sarasota, Florida

The Scientific Forum on the Gulf of Mexico: The Islands in the Stream Concept took place in January 2008 in Sarasota, Florida. The purpose of the meeting was to bring together scientists and managers from around the Gulf of Mexico to discuss a range of topics on our knowledge of the Gulf of Mexico, from its geology to larger-scale connectivity to the Caribbean region, and their applications to the concept of a more integrated approach to area-based management. The forum included six panels of invited experts who spoke on the oceanographic and biological features in the Gulf of Mexico, including connections with Mexico and the Mesoamerican barrier reef system, and the legal and regulatory structure currently in place. The charge to the group was to share information, identify gaps in our knowledge, identify additional potential areas for protection, and discuss available science about connectivity and the potential value of establishing a marine protected area network in the Gulf of Mexico. (PDF has 108 pages.)

Channel Islands Deep Water Monitoring Plan Development Workshop Report April 26-27, 2005 University of California, Santa Barbara

In 2003, twelve marine protected areas were established in state waters (0-3 nmi) surrounding the Channel Islands. NOAA is considering extending this network (3-6 nmi) into deeper waters of the Channel Islands National Marine Sanctuary (CINMS). In order for effective long-term management of the deep water reserves to occur, a well-structured monitoring program is required to assess effectiveness. The CINMS and the National Marine Sanctuary Program (NMSP) hosted a 2-day workshop in April 2005 to develop a monitoring plan for the proposed federal marine reserves in that sanctuary. Conducted at the University of California at Santa Barbara, participants included scientists from academic, state, federal, and private research institutions. Workshop participants developed project ideas that could answer priority questions posed by the NMSP. This workshop report will be used to develop a monitoring plan for the reserves. (PDF contains 47 pages.)

Emerging technologies for reef fisheries research and management [held during the 56th annual Gulf and Caribbean Fisheries Institute meeting in Tortola, British Virgin Islands, November 2003]

This publication of the NOAA Professional Paper NMFS Series is the product of a special symposium on “Emerging Technologies for Reef Fisheries Research and Management” held during the 56th annual Gulf and Caribbean Fisheries Institute meeting in Tortola, British Virgin Islands, November 2003. The purpose of this collection is to highlight the diversity of questions and issues in reef fisheries management that are benefiting from applications of technology. Topics cover a wide variety of questions and issues from the study of individual behavior, distribution and abundance of groups and populations, and associations between habitats and fish and shellfish species.(PDF files contains 124 pages.)

Odontocete Stranding Patterns in the Main Hawaiian Islands 1937–2002): how do they compare with live animal surveys?

In this study we (1) synthesized 65 yr of odontocete stranding data around the main Hawaiian Islands (1937–2002); (2) analyzed stranding patterns and trends over time; and (3) compared occurrence patterns based on sightings of live animals with stranding data and evaluated the compatibility of these data sets. From 1937 to 2002, 202 odontocete strandings were recorded by the National Marine Fisheries Service, Pacific Islands Regional Office. Strandings increased through time due to increased reporting effort and occurred throughout the year. The four most common of 16 species reported were Kogia spp. (18%), spinner dolphins (Stenella longirostris) (15%), striped dolphins (Stenella coeruleoalba) (11%), and sperm whales (Physeter macrocephalus) (10%). The highest proportion of strandings was recorded on O‘ahu (48%), followed by Maui/La¯na‘i (24%), Kaua‘i (12%), Hawai‘i (11%), and Moloka‘i (5%). Comparison with four previously published live animal survey studies suggests that stranding records are a good indicator of species composition and yield reasonable data on the frequency of occurrence of species in the region they cover.

Greenland turbot Reinhardtius hippoglossoides of the eastern Bering Sea and Aleutian Islands region

Greenland turbot (Reinhardtius hippoglossoides) is a commercially important flounder in both the North Atlantic and North Pacific Oceans. In the latter, its center of abundance is in the eastern Bering Sea and along the Aleutian Islands chain where its population is managed as a single stock. Harvest levels in this region of the North Pacific during the period 1970-81 were comparable with those in the northwest and northeast Atlantic, with annual average catches of 53,000 metric tons (t). However, the catch in 1984 dropped sharply to 23,100 t, in part because of reduced quotas arising from concern over continued poor recruitment and declining catch-per-unit-effort. Recruitment failure was manifested in 1) the sharp decline in the catch rate of young flsh in annual research trawl surveys on the continental shelf of the eastern Bering Sea and 2) an increasing proportion of older and larger fish in the commercial catch from the continental slope of both the eastern Bering Sea and Aleutian Islands. The cause ofthe decline in recruitment could not be clearly identifled. Greenland turbot of the Bering Sea-Aleutian Islands share certain distributional features with the North Atlantic form. There is an apparent bathymetric change in the size and age of fish, with younger animals occupying continental shelf depths and the older individuals residing at depths of the continental slope. At shallow depths the young are exposed to temperature fluctuations, whereas older animals along the slope are exposed to relatively stable temperatures. A hypothesis is proposed for describing the temporal and spatial paths by which young animals reach the mature or spawning portion of the population. (PDF file contains 38 pages.)

Fishery atlas of the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands

This atlas summarizes data on the crustaceans, molluscs, and fishes caught in a resource survey of the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands from October 1976 to September 1981. The geographical and depth distributions, size range, and the type of gear used to catch all of the crustaceans, molluscs, and fishes are tabulated. Species accounts of 37 crustaceans, molluscs, and fishes of commercial potential are presented. The geography, oceanography, and climate of the region are reviewed. (PDF file contains 38 pages.)

Management of northern fur seals on the Pribilof Islands, Alaska, 1786-1981

This paper includes information about the Pribilof Islands since their discovery by Russia in 1786 and the population of northern fur seals, Cailorhinus ursinus, that return there each summer to bear young and to breed. Russia exterminated the native population of sea Oilers, Enhydra lulris, here and nearly subjected the northern fur seal to the same fate before providing proper protection. The northern fur seal was twice more exposed to extinction following the purchase of Alaska and the Pribilof Islands by the United States in 1867. Excessive harvesting was stopped as a result of strict management by the United States of the animals while on land and a treaty between Japan, Russia, Great Britain (for Canada), and the United States that provided needed protection at sea. In 1941, Japan abrogated this treaty which was replaced by a provisional agreement between Canada and the United States that protected the fur seals in the eastern North Pacific Ocean. Japan, the U.S.S.R., Canada, and the United States again insured the survival of these animals with ratification in 1957 of the "Interim Convention on the Conservation of North Pacific Fur Seals," which is still in force. Under the auspices of this Convention, the United States launched an unprecedented manipulation of the resource through controlled removal during 1956-68 of over 300,000 females considered surplus. The biological rationale for the reduction was that production of fewer pups would result in a higher pregnancy rate and increased survival, which would, in turn, produce a sustained annual harvest of 55,000-60,000 males and 10,000-30,000 females. Predicted results did not occur. The herd reduction program instead coincided with the beginning of a decline in the number of males available for harvest. Suspected but unproven causes were changes in the toll normally accounted for by predation, disease, adverse weather, and hookworms. Depletion of the animals' food supply by foreign fishing Heets and the entanglement of fur seals in trawl webbing and other debris discarded at sea became a prime suspect in altering the average annual harvest of males on the Pribilof Islands from 71,500 (1940-56) to 40,000 (1957-59) to 36,000 (1960) to 82,000 (1961) and to 27,347 (1972-81). Thus was born the concept of a research control area for fur seals, which was agreed upon by members of the Convention in 1973 and instituted by the United States on St. George Island beginning in 1974. All commercial harvesting of fur seals was stopped on St. George Island and intensive behavioral studies were begun on the now unharvested population as it responds to the moratorium and attempts to reach its natural ceiling. The results of these and other studies here and on St. Paul Island are expected to eventually permit a comparison between the dynamics of unharvested and harvested populations, which should in turn permit more precise management of fur seals as nations continue to exploit the marine resources of the North Pacific Ocean and Bering Sea. (PDF file contains 32 pages.)