Assessment of Atlantic Red Drum for 1999: Northern and southern regions

An assessment of the status of the Atlantic stock of red drum is conducted using recreational and commercial data from 1986 through 1998. This assessment updates data and analyses from the 1989, 1991, 1992 and 1995 stock assessments on Atlantic coast red drum (Vaughan and Helser, 1990; Vaughan 1992; 1993; 1996). Since 1981, coastwide recreational catches ranged between 762,300 pounds in 1980 and 2,623,900 pounds in 1984, while commercial landings ranged between 60,900 pounds in 1997 and 422,500 pounds in 1984. In weight of fish caught, Atlantic red drum constitute predominantly a recreational fishery (ranging between 85 and 95% during the 1990s). Commercially, red drum continue to be harvested as part of mixed species fisheries. Using available length-frequency distributions and age-length keys, recreational and commercial catches are converted to catch in numbers at age. Separable and tuned virtual population analyses are conducted on the catch in numbers at age to obtain estimates of fishing mortality rates and population size (including recruitment to age 1). In tum, these estimates of fishing mortality rates combined with estimates of growth (length and weight), sex ratios, sexual maturity and fecundity are used to estimate yield per recruit, escapement to age 4, and static (or equilibrium) spawning potential ratio (static SPR, based on both female biomass and egg production). Three virtual analysis approaches (separable, spreadsheet, and FADAPT) were applied to catch matrices for two time periods (early: 1986-1991, and late: 1992-1998) and two regions (Northern: North Carolina and north, and Southern: South Carolina through east coast of Florida). Additional catch matrices were developed based on different treatments for the catch-and-release recreationally-caught red drum (B2-type). These approaches included assuming 0% mortality (BASEO) versus 10% mortality for B2 fish. For the 10% mortality on B2 fish, sizes were assumed the same as caught fish (BASEl), or positive difference in size distribution between the early period and the later period (DELTA), or intermediate (PROP). Hence, a total of 8 catch matrices were developed (2 regions, and 4 B2 assumptions for 1986-1998) to which the three VPA approaches were applied. The question of when offshore emigration or reduced availability begins (during or after age 3) continues to be a source of bias that tends to result in overestimates of fishing mortality. Additionally, the continued assumption (Vaughan and Helser, 1990; Vaughan 1992; 1993; 1996) of no fishing mortality on adults (ages 6 and older), causes a bias that results in underestimates of fishing mortality for adult ages (0 versus some positive value). Because of emigration and the effect of the slot limit for the later period, a range in relative exploitations of age 3 to age 2 red drum was considered. Tuning indices were developed from the MRFSS, and state indices for use in the spreadsheet and FADAPT VPAs. The SAFMC Red Drum Assessment Group (Appendix A) favored the FADAPT approach with catch matrix based on DELTA and a selectivity for age 3 relative to age 2 of 0.70 for the northern region and 0.87 for the southern region. In the northern region, estimates of static SPR increased from about 1.3% for the period 1987-1991 to approximately 18% (15% and 20%) for the period 1992-1998. For the southern region, estimates of static SPR increased from about 0.5% for the period 1988-1991 to approximately 15% for the period 1992-1998. Population models used in this assessment (specifically yield per recruit and static spawning potential ratio) are based on equilibrium assumptions: because no direct estimates are available as to the current status of the adult stock, model results imply potential longer term, equilibrium effects. Because current status of the adult stock is unknown, a specific rebuilding schedule cannot be determined. However, the duration of a rebuilding schedule should reflect, in part, a measure of the generation time of the fish species under consideration. For a long-lived, but relatively early spawning, species as red drum, mean generation time would be on the order of 15 to 20 years based on age-specific egg production. Maximum age is 50 to 60 years for the northern region, and about 40 years for the southern region. The ASMFC Red Drum Board's first phase recovery goal of increasing %SPR to at least 10% appears to have been met. (PDF contains 79 pages)

Bag and size limit analyses for red drum in Northern and Southern Regions of the U.S. Atlantic

Assessments of the Atlantic red drum for the northern (North Carolina and north) and southern (South Carolina through east coast of Florida) regions along the U. S. Atlantic coast were recently completed. The joint Red Drum Technical Committee (SAFMC/ASMFC) selected the most appropriate catch matrix (incorporating an assumption on size of recreationally-released fish), selectivity of age 3 relative to age 2, and virtual population analysis (FADAPT). Given gear- and age-specific estimates of fishing mortality (F) for the 1992-1998 period, analyses were made of potential gains in escapement through age 4 and static spawning potential ratio (SPR) from further reductions in fishing mortality due to changes in slot and bag limits. Savings from bag limits were calculated given a particular slot size for the recreational fishery, with no savings for the commercial fisheries in the northern region due to their being managed primarily through a quota. Relative changes in catch-at-age estimates were used to adjust age-specific F and hence calculated escapement through age 4 and static SPR. Adjustment was made with the recreational savings to account for release mortality (10%, as in the stock assessment). Alternate runs for the northern region commercial fishery considered 25% release mortality for lengths outside the slot (instead of 0% for the base run), and 0% vs. 10% gain or loss across legal sizes in F. These results are summarized for ranges of bag limits with increasing minimum size limit (for fixed maximum size), and with decreasing maximum size limit (for fixed minimum size limit). For the southern region, a bag limit of one-fish per angler trip would be required to attain the stated target of 40% static SPR if the current slot limit were not changed. However, for the northern region, a bag limit of one-fish per angler trip appears to be insufficient to attain the stated target of 40% static SPR while maintaining the current slot limit. (PDF contains 41 pages)

Interpreting spotted dolphin age distributions

Previous work has determined the age distribution from a sample of spotted dolphins (Stenella attenuata) killed in the eastern Pacific tuna purse-seine fishery. In this paper we examine the usefulness of this age distribution for estimating natural mortality rates. The observed age distribution has a deficiency of individuals from 5-15 years and cannot represent a stable age distribution. Sampling bias and errors in age interpretation are examined as possible causes of the "dip" in the observed age structure. Natural mortality rates are estimated for the 15+ age classes based on the assumption that these are sampled representatively. The resulting annual survival rate

Schooling habits of yellowfin tuna (Neothunnus macropterus) and skipjack (Katsuwonus pelamis) in the Eastern Pacific Ocean, as indicated by purse seine catch records, 1946-1955

ENGLISH: These aspects of the schooling habits of the yellowfin and skipjack tuna may be investigated by means of the logbook records of the catches of individual sets of the nets of purse-seine vessels. For both purposes it must be assumed that a set is made, in each case, on a single school of fish. The study of school sizes based on these data requires the additional assumption either that the entire school is captured or that each set captures a constant fraction of the school upon which it is made. In this paper we report on the results of such investigations based on logbook records of the purse-seine fleet. SPANISH: Estos aspectos de los hábitos gregarios de los atunes aleta amarilla y barrilete pueden ser investigados a base de los registros de bitácora en que se anotan las pescas resultantes de cada una de las operaciones con la red de encierre que realizan los barcos rederos. Para ambos propósitos hay que suponer que las operaciones se efectúan, en cada caso, en un cardumen independiente. El estudio de los tamaños de los cardúmenes o manchas, a base de estos datos, requiere una suposición adicional: que el cardumen entero es capturado o, en su defecto, que en cada operación con la red se pesca una fracción constante de la mancha objeto de la pesca. En el presente artículo damos cuenta de los resultados de dichas investigaciones basadas en los registros de bitácora que lleva la flota de embarcaciones que utilizan redes de encierre. (PDF contains 47 pages.)

An egg production method for estimating spawning biomass of pelagic fish: Application to the northern anchovy, Engraulis mordax

Fishery scientists engaged in estimating the size of free-swimming populations have never had a technique available to them whereby all the parameters could be estimated from a resource survey and where no parameter values need to be assumed. Recognizing the need for a technique of this kind, the staff of the Coastal Fisheries Resources Division of the Southwest Fisheries Center (SWFC) devised an egg production method for anchovy biomass assessment. Previously, anchovy biomass was estimated by approximate methods derived from a long-time series and anchovy larval abundance, which required about 5 ma of shiptime each year to integrate the area under a seasonal spawning curve. One major assumption used in the larval abundance census method is that there is constant proportionality between larval numbers and spawning biomass. This has now proved to be erroneous. (PDF file contains 105 pages.)

Environmental oestrogens and sexual development in fish

This brief paper discusses the assumption that watercourses might be harbouring a chemical(s) affecting the sexual development in fish. Male fish was found with the oestrogen-dependent blood protein, vitellogenin, usually found only in maturing females. The author examines a number of man-made chemicals present in the environment have been found to be oestrogenic. The paper concludes that rivers contain environmental oestrogens that are capable of causing disruptions in the sexual development of fish. Whether or not these environmental oestrogens are causing a widespread disruption in reproduction in wild fish, however, has yet to be determined.

Determination of dissolved oxygen in water with leukoberbelin-blue I. A quick Winkler method. [Translation from: Z.analyt.Chem. 262 97-99, 1972.]

The reaction of Mn(II) with water-dissolved oxygen, to a higher manganese hydroxide in an alkaline medium, as with the longstanding classic Winkler method, is the first step in the method described here. The assumption for faultless results by the conventional and modified Winkler method is clean water, which contains no organic substances by Mn(III) or Mn(IV). In many cases, however, eg. in river and lake-water tests, it can be seen with the naked eye that after some time the originally brown-coloured precipitate of manganese hydroxide becomes more and more colourless. Oxygen content was analysed in the water samples and evaluated by raising the amount of the leuko-base and giving the corresponding dilution of the colouring matter solution formed still higher oxygen contents can be measured.

Experiments with the hatching of salmon spawn 1966-1971. [Translation from: Vann 1972(1) 86-938, 1972]

Experiments were undertaken with the purpose to find out the tolerance of different species of salmon fish in acid hatching water and if different strains of the same species differ in their response. The study was made in the Fins-river hatchery, Marnardal and the assumption tested that the salmon and trout stock from Sorland are adapted to the more acid milieu, and thus more robust in acid water than are comparable fish stocks from areas where the water is only a bit acid or neutral.

Abundance of harbor porpoise (Phocoena phocoena) in three Alaskan regions, corrected for observer errors due to perception bias and species misidentification, and corrected for animals submerged from view

Estimating the abundance of cetaceans from aerial survey data requires careful attention to survey design and analysis. Once an aerial observer perceives a marine mammal or group of marine mammals, he or she has only a few seconds to identify and enumerate the individuals sighted, as well as to determine the distance to the sighting and record this information. In line-transect survey analyses, it is assumed that the observer has correctly identified and enumerated the group or individual. We describe methods used to test this assumption and how survey data should be adjusted to account for observer errors. Harbor porpoises (Phocoena phocoena) were censused during aerial surveys in the summer of 1997 in Southeast Alaska (9844 km survey effort), in the summer of 1998 in the Gulf of Alaska (10,127 km), and in the summer of 1999 in the Bering Sea (7849 km). Sightings of harbor porpoise during a beluga whale (Phocoena phocoena) survey in 1998 (1355 km) provided data on harbor porpoise abundance in Cook Inlet for the Gulf of Alaska stock. Sightings by primary observers at side windows were compared to an independent observer at a belly window to estimate the probability of misidentification, underestimation of group size, and the probability that porpoise on the surface at the trackline were missed (perception bias, g(0)). There were 129, 96, and 201 sightings of harbor porpoises in the three stock areas, respectively. Both g(0) and effective strip width (the realized width of the survey track) depended on survey year, and g(0) also depended on the visibility reported by observers. Harbor porpoise abundance in 1997–99 was estimated at 11,146 animals for the Southeast Alaska stock, 31,046 animals for the Gulf of Alaska stock, and 48,515 animals for the Bering Sea stock.

Effects of commercial fishing on local abundance of Pacific cod (Gadus macrocephalus) in the Bering Sea

Groundfish fisheries in the southeast Bering Sea in Alaska have been constrained in recent years by management measures to protect the endangered Steller sea lion (Eumetopias jubatus). There is concern that the present commercial harvest may produce a localized depletion of groundfish that would affect the foraging success of Steller sea lions or other predators. A three-year field experiment was conducted to determine whether an intensive trawl fishery in the southeast Bering Sea created a localized depletion in the abundance of Pacific cod (Gadus macrocephalus). This experiment produced strongly negative results; no difference was found in the rate of seasonal change in Pacific cod abundance between stations within a regulatory no-trawl zone and stations in an immediately adjacent trawled area. Corollary studies showed that Pacific cod in the study area were highly mobile and indicated that the geographic scale of Pacific cod movement was larger than the spatial scale used as the basis for current no-trawl zones. The idea of localized depletion is strongly dependent on assumed spatial and temporal scales and contains an implicit assumption that there is a closed local population. The scale of movement of target organisms is critical in determining regional effects of fishery removals.

Removing observational noise from fisheries-independent time series data using ARIMA models

Abundance indices derived from fishery-independent surveys typically exhibit much higher interannual variability than is consistent with the within-survey variance or the life history of a species. This extra variability is essentially observation noise (i.e. measurement error); it probably reflects environmentally driven factors that affect catchability over time. Unfortunately, high observation noise reduces the ability to detect important changes in the underlying population abundance. In our study, a noise-reduction technique for uncorrelated observation noise that is based on autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) time series modeling is investigated. The approach is applied to 18 time series of finfish abundance, which were derived from trawl survey data from the U.S. northeast continental shelf. Although the a priori assumption of a random-walk-plus-uncorrelated-noise model generally yielded a smoothed result that is pleasing to the eye, we recommend that the most appropriate ARIMA model be identified for the observed time series if the smoothed time series will be used for further analysis of the population dynamics of a species.

Use of genetic data to assess the uncertainty in stock assessments due to the assumed stock structure: the case of albacore (Thunnus alalunga) from the Atlantic Ocean

Stock assessments can be problematic because of uncertainties associated with the data or because of simplified assumptions made when modeling biological processes (Rosenberg and Restrepo, 1995). For example, the common assumption in stock assessments that stocks are homogeneous and discrete (i.e., there is no migration between the stocks) is not necessarily true (Kell et al., 2004a, 2004b).

Indirect validation of the age-reading method for Pacific cod (Gadus macrocephalus) using otoliths from marked and recaptured fish

Two examples of indirect validation are described for age-reading methods of Pacific cod (Gadus macrocephalus). Aging criteria that exclude faint translucent zones (checks) in counts of annuli and criteria that include faint zones were both tested. Otoliths from marked and recaptured fish were used to back-calculate the length of each fish at the time of its release by using measurements of the area of annuli. Estimated fish size at time of release and actual observed fish size were similar, supporting the assumption that translucent zones are laid down on an annual basis. A second method for validating reading criteria used otolith age and von Bertalanffy parameters, estimated from the tagging data, to predict how much each fish grew in length after tagging. We found that otolith aging criteria applied to otoliths from tagged and recovered Pacific cod predicted quite accurately the growth increments that we observed in these specimens. These results provide further evidence that the current aging criteria are not underestimating the age of the fish and support our current interpretation of checks (i.e., as subannual marks). We expect these indirect validations to advance age determination for Pacific cod, which in turn would enhance development of stock assessment methods based on age structure for this species in the eastern Bering Sea.

Untrawlable Bottom in Shrimp Statistical Zones of the Northwest Gulf of Mexico

The Gulf of Mexico Fisheries Management Council tasked the National Marine Fisheries Service with determining the extent, if any, of loss oft rawlable bottom in the Gulf of Mexico based upon fishing industry concerns. There are approximately 31 million hectares in the 21 shrimp statistical zones in the Gulf, approximately 23 million hectares of waters that are <35 fathoms (where most shrimp trawling effort occurs), and approximately 11 million hectares in zones 10-21, <35f athoms, which were examined. There are 31,338 known hangs, snags, artificial reefs, hazards to navigation, oil rigs, and similar obstructions which cause trawling to be unfeasible in these zones. There are several refuge (i.e. untrawlable) areas associated with the Alabama Artificial Reefs. Conservatively assuming 1 hectare for each known obstruction, coupled with the known area of each refuge, the estimate of total untrawlable bottom in zones 10-21 less than 35 fathoms in the Gulf is 185,953 hectares, or roughly 1.7% of this total trawlable area. Sensitivity analysis demonstrated the robustness of this assumption, with a range of 0.3-4.3% possible. In specific shrimp zones, untrawlable area is much less than 1% except in zones 10 (26%) and 11(2.5%), both of which possess a refuge. Other than the implementation periods of these refugia, no temporal trends were detectable with respect to the amount of untrawlable bottom.

Simulated Economic Impact of TED Regulations on Selected Vessels in the Texas Shrimp Fishery

Shrimp fishermen trawling in the Gulf of Mexico and south Atlantic inadvertently capture and kill sea turtles which are classified as endangered species. Recent legislation requires the use of a Turtle Excluder Device(TED) which, when in place in the shrimp trawl, reduces sea turtle mortality. The impact of the TED on shrimp production is not known. This intermediate analysis of the TED regulations using an annual firm level simulation model indicated that the average Texas shrimp vessel had a low probability of being an economic success before regulations were enacted. An assumption that the TED regulations resulted in decreased production aggravated this condition and the change in Ending Net Worth and Net Present Value of Ending Net Worth before and after a TED was placed in the net was significant at the 5 percent level. However, the difference in the Internal Rate of Return for the TED and non-TED simulations was not significant unless the TED caused a substantial change in catch. This analysis did not allow for interactions between the fishermen in the shrimp industry, an assumption which could significantly alter the impact of TED use on the catch and earnings of the individual shrimp vessel.