Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States: a state of knowledge report from the U.S. Global Change Research Program

Executive Summary: Observations show that warming of the climate is unequivocal. The global warming observed over the past 50 years is due primarily to human-induced emissions of heat-trapping gases. These emissions come mainly from the burning of fossil fuels (coal, oil, and gas), with important contributions from the clearing of forests, agricultural practices, and other activities. Warming over this century is projected to be considerably greater than over the last century. The global average temperature since 1900 has risen by about 1.5ºF. By 2100, it is projected to rise another 2 to 11.5ºF. The U.S. average temperature has risen by a comparable amount and is very likely to rise more than the global average over this century, with some variation from place to place. Several factors will determine future temperature increases. Increases at the lower end of this range are more likely if global heat-trapping gas emissions are cut substantially. If emissions continue to rise at or near current rates, temperature increases are more likely to be near the upper end of the range. Volcanic eruptions or other natural variations could temporarily counteract some of the human-induced warming, slowing the rise in global temperature, but these effects would only last a few years. Reducing emissions of carbon dioxide would lessen warming over this century and beyond. Sizable early cuts in emissions would significantly reduce the pace and the overall amount of climate change. Earlier cuts in emissions would have a greater effect in reducing climate change than comparable reductions made later. In addition, reducing emissions of some shorter-lived heat-trapping gases, such as methane, and some types of particles, such as soot, would begin to reduce warming within weeks to decades. Climate-related changes have already been observed globally and in the United States. These include increases in air and water temperatures, reduced frost days, increased frequency and intensity of heavy downpours, a rise in sea level, and reduced snow cover, glaciers, permafrost, and sea ice. A longer ice-free period on lakes and rivers, lengthening of the growing season, and increased water vapor in the atmosphere have also been observed. Over the past 30 years, temperatures have risen faster in winter than in any other season, with average winter temperatures in the Midwest and northern Great Plains increasing more than 7ºF. Some of the changes have been faster than previous assessments had suggested. These climate-related changes are expected to continue while new ones develop. Likely future changes for the United States and surrounding coastal waters include more intense hurricanes with related increases in wind, rain, and storm surges (but not necessarily an increase in the number of these storms that make landfall), as well as drier conditions in the Southwest and Caribbean. These changes will affect human health, water supply, agriculture, coastal areas, and many other aspects of society and the natural environment. This report synthesizes information from a wide variety of scientific assessments (see page 7) and recently published research to summarize what is known about the observed and projected consequences of climate change on the United States. It combines analysis of impacts on various sectors such as energy, water, and transportation at the national level with an assessment of key impacts on specific regions of the United States. For example, sea-level rise will increase risks of erosion, storm surge damage, and flooding for coastal communities, especially in the Southeast and parts of Alaska. Reduced snowpack and earlier snow melt will alter the timing and amount of water supplies, posing significant challenges for water resource management in the West. (PDF contains 196 pages)

Progress on the salmon investigation

An article detailing some of the conclusions of the salmon investigation undertaken by the author, on the River Eden and its tributaries, for the previous few years. It is proposed that seasonal changes in young salmon growth are related to water temperature variation. A figure is included showing length of fish compared to the average temperature of water in the River Eden over a two year duration. The article describes comparative work undertaken to date between three streams within the Thurso watershed and the River Eden. A table is included showing the average size of fish in each of the watercourses compared. Laboratory experiments on the effects of temperature on young salmon are outlined, as well as investigative work undertaken into the realtionship between fish scales and fish length.

Comparative feature on design, construction and installation of three different model of low cost solar tunnel dryers

The study was conducted in collaboration with the ECFC project of the FAO (BGD/97/017) in Cox's Bazar to develop a low cost solar tunnel dryer for the production of high quality marine dried fish. The study areas were Kutubdiapara, Maheshkhali and Shahparirdip under Cox's Bazar district. Three different models of low cost solar dryer were constructed with locally available materials such as bamboo, wood, bamboo mat, hemp, canvas, wire, nails, rope, tin, polythene and net. Size of the dryers were: 20x4x3 ft ; 30x3x3 ft and 65x3x3 ft with the costs of Tk. 3060, 3530, 9600 for dryer 1, 2 and 3, respectively having different models. The drying capacities were 50, 150, 500 kg for dryer 1, 2 and 3 respectively. The average temperature range inside the dryers were 29-43°C, 34-51°C and 37-57°C for dryer 1, 2 and 3 respectively as recorded at 8:30h to 16:30h. The relative humidity were in the ranges of 22-42%, 27-39% and 24-41 % in dryer 1, 2 and 3 respectively. The fish samples used were Bombay duck, Silver Jew fish and Ribbon fish. The total drying time was in the range of 30-42, 28-38 and 24-34 hours to reach the moisture content of 12.3-14.5, 11.8-14.3, and 11.6-14.1% in dryer 1, 2 and 3 respectively. Among these three fish samples the drying was faster in Silver Jew fish followed by Bombay duck and Ribbon fish in all the three dryer.

Changes in catches and biological characteristics of Nile tilapia (Oreochromis niloticus Linnaeus) in Lake Wamala (Uganda) under changing climatic conditions

There have been changes in catches and biological characteristics of the Nile Tilapia, Oreochromis niloticus (Linnaeus) in Lake Wamala (Uganda) since its introduction and establishment, but the factors which have contributed to these changes are not adequately understood. This study examined changes in catches and biological characteristics of Nile tilapia in relation to changes in temperature, rainfall and lake depth to provide an understanding of the role of changing climatic conditions. There was an increase in minimum, maximum and average temperature since 1980, but only minimum (0.021ºCyr-1) and average (0.018ºCyr-1) showed a significant trend (p < 0.05). Rainfall increased by 8.25 mmyr-1 since 1950 and accounted for 79.5% of the water input into the lake while evaporation accounted for 86.2% of the water loss from the lake. The lake depth was above 4 m during the years rainfall was above normal average of 1180 mm, except during the period 2011-2014. The contribution of Nile tilapia to total catch and CPUE changed with rainfall and lake depth up to 2000, after which they decreased despite increase in rainfall. There was a strong positive correlation between lake depth and average total length of Nile tilapia (r = 0.991, p < 0.001) and length at 50% maturity (r = 0.726, p < 0.001). The length-weight allometry between high and low lake depths was significantly different [t (6) = 3.225, p < 0.05], with Nile tilapia being heavier (for a given length) at high lake depth than at low lake depth. Fecundity of Nile tilapia was higher and egg diameter lower than what is reported in literature. Nile tilapia shifted from algal dominated diet during the wet season to include more insects during the dry season. The study showed that the catches and biological characteristics of Nile tilapia change with climate and hydrological factors and these need to be considered in management of the fisheries of Lake Wamala.

The Effects of Salinity, Temperature, and Food on the Growth and Reproductive Output of Polydora nuchalis Woodick, 1953

Polydora nuchalis Woodwick, 1953 (Polychaeta: Spionidae) is a protandric hermaphrodite commonly inhabiting intertidal mud flats in southern California. The species exhibits lecithotrophic larval development and adelphophagia. Reproduction of P. nuchalis was monitored for a year at four sites: Catalina Harbor, San Gabriel River, Huntington Harbour, and Malibu Lagoon. Females deposited from 11 to 31 egg capsules in their tubes, with up to 230 eggs per capsule. An average of 3% of the eggs developed into larvae: the remaining were nurse eggs serving as food for the developing larvae. Reproductive output was quantified by determining the number and size of larvae and nurse eggs for individual capsules. Significant differences among the four populations were found for all the quantified variables. In addition, two size classes of nurse eggs were found to exist in capsules from all of the sites. Egg capsules were found throughout the year at San Gabriel River, but none were found during the winter months at the remaining three sites. Size/frequency data for juveniles and adults of the Catalina Harbor population indicate an annual cycle of recruitment. The laboratory experiment consisted of a 3 x 3 x 2 £actor1al design with replication testing the effects of temperature, salinity, and food supply on growth and reproduction of P. nuchalis. Increasing temperature resulted in significantly increased survivorship, growth rates, and percentage reproduction. It also produced a significant decrease in the size of the nurse eggs and the volume of food per larva. The number of egg capsules was maximum at the intermediate temperature. Increasing the salinity resulted in significant increases in survivorship and Class I nurse egg size. Increaaing food availability produced a significant increase in the percentage of worms reproducing. The interactive effect of salinity and £ood level produced significant changes in the number of larvae per capsule and the number of nurse eggs per capsule. However, the number of nurse eggs per larva did not differ significantly among the experimental treatment groups. (PDF contains 129 pages)

Some aspects of the temperature, oxygen and nutrient distributions in Monterey Bay, California. Annual Report, Part 1, 1973

Seasonal variations in temperature, dissolved oxygen, and nutrients in the nearshore areas and in the canyon area of Monterey Bay, California during 1971-1972 were similar~ During upwelling periods, however, water in the nearshore areas was higher in temperature and oxygen and lower in nutrients than water in the canyon area~ This was caused by upwelled water moving north and south of the canyon into counterclockwise and clockwise flow in the northern and southern ends of the bay respectively. The water was heated by insolation and depleted of its nutrients by photosynthesis during this movement. The residence time of water in the nearshore northern and southern bay during upwelling is estimated to be 3 to 8 days, and this fits well into the above circulation pattern and average measured current velocities of 10 to 15 cm/sec~ There is sorne evidence that this circulation pattern and the estimated residence time may be also valid for on-upwelling periods. Upwelling apparently occurred in Monterey Submarine Canyon at rates of 0.4 to 2.9 m/day and was stronger in 1971 than 1972. (PDF contains 107 pages)

Temperature conditions in the cold pool 1977-81: A comparison between Southern New England and New York transects

Expendable bathythermograph data collected by the Ships of Opportunity (SOOP) - Ocean Monitoring Program are analyzed for seasonal and inter-annual variations of the cold pool. Two major SOOP transects within the Middle Atlantic Bight (Southern New England and New York) have been analyzed for the years common to both (1977-81). During the years 1977-81, over 200 transects were occupied, and almost 3,000 XBT's were dropped. Results show that the cold pool is formed with the onset of spring warming and persists until fall overturn, is consistent year to year in both area and weighted average annual temperature, and advects water from the northeast to the southwest. Results also show a 100-d lag in minimum temperature between the Southern New England and New York transects. DitTerences in bathymetry between the two transects and their influence on the cold pool are also discussed. Plots of average (1977-81) bottom temperature for both transects are discussed and show consistent annual weighted mean temperature and areas. Bottom temperature plots for individual years, as well as maximum and minimum bottom temperature plots, are presented as Appendix figures. (PDF file contains 28 pages.)

Simulation of recent global temperature trends [abstract]

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): Observations show that global average tropospheric temperatures have been rising during the past century, with the most recent portion of record showing a sharp rise since the mid-1970s.

The experimentally pathogenesis of Aeromonas hydrophila in Astacus leptodactylus with emphasis on temperature in bacterial pathogenesis

In this study, four hundred freshwater Crayfish (A. leptodactylus) with average weight of 25-40g were purchased from Aras dam reservoirs in west Azerbayjan province and transported to Iranian Artemia Research Center of Uromya province in September 2010. (One hundred crayfish extra purchased for probably mortality). Before implement of experiment the Crayfish were acclimated for ten days. These experiments was designed in four group treatments (Number, 1,2,3,4) and one control group (Number 5) in triplicate with 20 Crayfish in each repetition prepared of glass aquarium with size (50x40x30cm). Many of infected Crayfish were used for isolation of bacteria. Haemolymph sample had been gathered from infected Crayfish with cutting their antennules and transferred to TSA medium (tryptic soy agar) and then A. hydrophila were determined in order to biochemical test. The treatments and repetitions has exposed to A. hydrophila. The concentrations of the bacteria in 4 treatments were respectively 3 x 108 (T=10-15°C), 3x106 (T=25°C), 3 x 106 and 3 x 104 Cfu mL-1 (T=10- i5oc) (4, 2, 3 and 1) that were prepared in individual containers for exposure of treatments. The control (5) prepared without any bacteria and disinfected by oxytetracycline antibiotic with concentration 100 ppm for 24 hours. The hemolymph samples were withdrawn from abdominal second segments of Crayfish for measuring of THC and TPC in interval hours (2, 6, 12, 24, 48, 96, 144, 240 and 336). For histopatological studies the crayfish samples fixed in Davidson fixative. The results indicated that interval 2 hours after experiment the difference of THC value between treatment 4 with control and treatments 1,2, and 3 was significant (P< 0.05). After 48 hours of experiment the difference of THC value between control group with treatment 1 ,2 and 3 was significant (P< 0.05). The interval 336 hours after experiment also the difference of THC value between treatment 2 with treatments 1, 3 and 4 was significant (P< 0.05). The finding of TPP value showed that the last time after challenge (336 h) there was significant difference between treatment 2 with treatment 4 and control group (P< 0.05). In histopathology studying, in hepatopancreas observed hemocyte aggregated and necrosis withof peknosis nucleus that with increased concentration of bacteria and temperature, The value of hemocyte has increased. Gill revealed necrosis and cell death especially with increased concentration of bacteria and temperature. In lower concentration of bacteria in heart no difference observed, but with increased concentration of bacteria (3 x 108) the low aggregation of hemocyte observed in heart. In treatment 3 x 106 with high temperature also distributed of high hemocyte in heart was observed. In digestive system didn't appear any difference in treatments land 3 but in concentration of 3 x 108 Cfu m1-1 and 3 x 106 (T=25°C) in digestive system was revealed the low aggregation of hemocyte.

On the effect of Arabian Sea and Indian Ocean sea surface temperature anomaly on the monsoon rainfall of south-east of Iran

Southeast region of the country has hot and dry weather which causes to happen heavy rainfall in short time period of warm seasons and to occur river flooding. These precipitations are influenced by monsoon system of India ocean. In these thesis, It was tried to evaluate the relation between thermal anomaly of sea surface in India ocean and Arab sea which effects on southeast monsoon precipitations of Iran, For evaluation of this happening in southeast, data were collected from 7 synoptic observation stations of Bandar Abbas, Minab, Kerman , Bam, Chabahar, Iranshahr, Zahedan and 17 rain gauge stations during June to September of each year from 1980 to 2010. Rainy days were determine and then some information about synoptic circulation models, maps of average pressure of sea surface, geopotential height of 700hP surface, geopotential height of 500hP surface, temperature of 850 hPa surface, humidity of 700 hPa surface, vertical velocity of 700 hPa surface, vertical velocity of 500 hP and humidity of 2 meters height for 6 systems were extracted from NCEP/NCAR website for evaluation. By evaluation of these systems it was determined that the monsoon low pressure system tab brings needed humidity of these precipitations to this region from India ocean and Arab sea with a vast circulation. It is seen that warm air pool locates on Iran and cold air pool locates on west of India at 800 hPa surface. In a rainy day this warm air transfers to high latitudes and influences the temperature trough of southeast cold air pool of the country. In the middle surfaces of 700 and 500 hPa, the connection between low height system above India and low height system above the higher latitudes causes the low height system above India to be strength and developed. By evaluation of humidity at 2 meters height and 700 hPa surface we observe that humidity Increases in the southeast region. With penetrating of the low height system of India above the 700 and 500 hPa surfaces of southeast of Iran, the value of negative omega (Rising vertical velocity) is increased. In the second pace, it was shown the evaluation of how the correlation between sea surface temperature anomaly in India Ocean and Arab sea influences southeast monsoon precipitation of Iran. For this purpose the data of water surface temperature anomaly of Arab sea and India ocean, the data of precipitation anomaly of 7 synoptic stations , mentioned above, and correlation coefficient among the data of precipitation anomaly and water surface temperature anomaly of Arab Sea, east and west of India ocean were calculated. In conclusion it was shown that the maximum correlation coefficient of precipitation anomaly had belonged to India Ocean in June and no meaningful correlation was resulted in July among precipitation anomaly and sea surface temperature anomaly for three regions, which were evaluated.