Periodic autoregressive moving average models for the analysis of streamflow [abstract]

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): Streamflow values show definite seasonal patterns in their month-to-month correlation structure. The structure also seems to vary as a function of the type of stream (coastal versus mountain or humid versus arid region). The standard autoregressive moving average (ARMA) time series model is incapable of reproducing this correlation structure. ... A periodic ARMA time series model is one in which an ARMA model is fitted to each month or season but the parameters of the model are constrained to be periodic according to a Fourier series. This constraint greatly reduces the number of parameters but still leaves the flexibility for matching the seasonally varying correlograms.

Evaluation of SP1001 (Pelargonic Acid) in Combination with Glyphosate on Cattail and Alligatorweed

Cattail (Typha latifolia L.) is a common and troublesome weed in shallow, freshwater environments throughout the United States. Alligatorweed (Alternanthera philoxeroides (Mart.)Griseb.), in spite of the introduction and success of several insects as biological controls, remains a troublesome we4ed in a a number of locations in the Southeast where there are frequent human disturbances (e.g., insecticide spraying, mechaniceal removal, etc.) and/or weather conditions that affect the life cycle of the insects (Kay1992, Vogt et al. 1992). Both of these weeds routinely are managed by foliar applications of the herbicide, glyphosate [N-(phosphonomethyl)glycine]. Regrowth and reinfestation of previously treated areas usually necessitates additional herbicide application during subsequent years. A new product that could enhance the activity of glyphosate on these weeds would be useful in their management. In 1997, SePRO Corp. initiated t4esting of an experimental compound, SP1001, to determine its efficacy either as a herbicide or as an adjuvant to boost the activity of glyphosate for use in aquatic sites. The objective of this study was to evaluate the potential for using SP1001 as an adjuvant to replace surfactants customarily used during application of glyphosate for control of cattail and alligatorweed.

Cruise Report NOAA Ship McARTHUR II Cruise AR-04-04: Leg 2 (June 1-12, 2004): A pilot survey of deepwater coral/sponge assemblages and their susceptibility to fishing/harvest impacts at the Olympic Coast National Marine Sanctuary (OCNMS)

Summary: The offshore shelf and canyon habitats of the OCNMS (Fig. 1) are areas of high primary productivity and biodiversity that support extensive groundfish fisheries. Recent acoustic surveys conducted in these waters have indicated the presence of hard-bottom substrates believed to harbor unique deep-sea coral and sponge assemblages. Such fauna are often associated with shallow tropical waters, however an increasing number of studies around the world have recorded them in deeper, cold-water habitats in both northern and southern latitudes. These habitats are of tremendous value as sites of recruitment for commercially important fishes. Yet, ironically, studies have shown how the gear used in offshore demersal fishing, as well as other commercial operations on the seafloor, can cause severe physical disturbances to resident benthic fauna. Due to their exposed structure, slow growth and recruitment rates, and long life spans, deep-sea corals and sponges may be especially vulnerable to such disturbances, requiring very long periods to recover. Potential effects of fishing and other commercial operations in such critical habitats, and the need to define appropriate strategies for the protection of these resources, have been identified as a high-priority management issue for the sanctuary. To begin addressing this issue, an initial pilot survey was conducted June 1-12, 2004 at six sites in offshore waters of the OCNMS (Fig. 2, average depths of 147-265 m) to explore for the presence of deep-sea coral/sponge assemblages and to look for evidence of potential anthropogenic impacts in these critical habitats. The survey was conducted on the NOAA Ship McARTHUR-II using the Navy’s Phantom DHD2+2 remotely operated vehicle (ROV), which was equipped with a video camera, lasers, and a manipulator arm for the collection of voucher specimens. At each site, a 0.1-m2 grab sampler also was used to collect samples of sediments for the analysis of macroinfauna (> 1.0 mm), total organic carbon (TOC), grain size, and chemical contaminants. Vertical profiles of salinity, dissolved oxygen (DO), temperature, and pressure were recorded at each site with a small SeaCat conductivity-temperature-depth (CTD) profiler. Niskin bottles attached to the CTD also obtained near-bottom water samples in support of a companion study of microbial indicators of coral health and general ecological condition across these sites. All samples except the sediment-contaminant samples are being analyzed with present project funds. Original cruise plans included a total of 12 candidate stations to investigate (Fig. 3). However, inclement weather and equipment failures restricted the sampling to half of these sites. In spite of the limited sampling, the work completed was sufficient to address key project objectives and included several significant scientific observations. Foremost, the cruise was successful in demonstrating the presence of target deepwater coral species in these waters. Patches of the rare stony coral Lophelia pertusa, more characteristic of deepwater coral/sponge assemblages in the North Atlantic, were observed for the first time in OCNMS at a site in 271 meters of water. A large proportion of these corals consisted of dead and broken skeletal remains, and a broken gorgonian (soft coral) also was observed nearby. The source of these disturbances is not known. However, observations from several sites included evidence of bottom trawl marks in the sediment and derelict fishing gear (long lines). Preliminary results also support the view that these areas are important reservoirs of marine biodiversity and of value as habitat for demersal fishes. For example, onboard examination of 18 bottom-sediment grabs revealed benthic infaunal species representative of 14 different invertebrate phyla. Twenty-eight species of fishes from 11 families, including 11 (possibly 12) species of ommercially important rockfishes, also were identified from ROV video footage. These initial discoveries have sparked considerable interests in follow-up studies to learn more about the spatial extent of these assemblages and magnitude of potential impacts from commercial-fishing and other anthropogenic activities in the area. It is essential to expand our knowledge of these deep-sea communities and their vulnerability to potential environmental risks in order to determine the most appropriate management strategies. The survey was conducted under a partnership between NOAA’s National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science (NCCOS) and National Marine Sanctuary Program (NMSP) and included scientists from NCCOS, OCNMS, and several other west-coast State, academic, private, and tribal research institutions (see Section 4 for a complete listing of participating scientists). (PDF contains 20 pages)

Soft-bottom benthic assemblages and levels of contaminants in sediments and biota at Gray's Reef National Marine Sanctuary and nearby shelf waters off the coast of Georgia (2000 and 2001)

A series of studies was initiated to assess the condition of benthic macroinfauna and chemical contaminant levels in sediments and biota of the Gray’s Reef National Marine Sanctuary (GRNMS) and nearby shelf waters off the coast of Georgia. Four key objectives of the research are (1) to document existing environmental conditions within the sanctuary in order to provide a quantitative benchmark for tracking any future changes due to either natural or human disturbances; (2) to examine broader cross-shelf spatial patterns in benthic fauna and sediment contaminant concentrations and to identify potential controlling factors associated with the observed patterns; (3) to assess any between-year temporal variability in benthic fauna; and (4) to evaluate the importance of benthic fauna as prey for higher trophic levels. Such questions are being addressed to help fulfill long-term science and management goals of the GRNMS. However, it is anticipated that the information will be of additional value in broadening our understanding of the surrounding South Atlantic Bight (SAB) ecosystem and in bringing the knowledge to bear on related resourcemanagement issues of the region. We have begun to address the first three of these objectives with data from samples collected in spring 2000 at stations within GRNMS, and in spring 2001 at stations within the sanctuary and along three cross-shelf transects extending from the mouths of Sapelo, Doboy, and Altamaha Sounds out to sanctuary depths (about 17-20 m). This report provides a description of baseline conditions within the sanctuary, based on results of the spring 2000 survey (Section II), and uses data from both 2000 and 2001 to examine overall spatial and temporal patterns in biological and chemical variables within the sanctuary and surrounding inner-shelf environment (Section III). (PDF contains 65 pages)

A comparison of seafloor habitats and associated benthic fauna in areas open and closed to bottom trawling along the central California Continental Shelf

Executive Summary: A number of studies have shown that mobile, bottom-contact fishing gear (such as otter trawls) can alter seafloor habitats and associated biota. Considerably less is known about the recovery of these resources following such disturbances, though this information is critical for successful management. In part, this paucity of information can be attributed to the lack of access to adequate control sites – areas of the seafloor that are closed to fishing activity. Recent closures along the coast of central California provide an excellent opportunity to track the recovery of historically trawled areas and to compare recovery rates to adjacent areas that continue to be trawled. In June 2006 we initiated a multi-year study of the recovery of seafloor microhabitats and associated benthic fauna inside and outside two new Essential Fish Habitat (EFH) closures within the Cordell Bank and Gulf of the Farallones National Marine Sanctuaries. Study sites inside the EFH closure at Cordell Bank were located in historically active areas of fishing effort, which had not been trawled since 2003. Sites outside the EFH closure in the Gulf of Farallones were located in an area that continues to be actively trawled. All sites were located in unconsolidated sands at equivalent water depths. Video and still photographic data collected via a remotely operated vehicle (ROV) were used to quantify the abundance, richness, and diversity of microhabitats and epifaunal macro-invertebrates at recovering and actively trawled sites, while bottom grabs and conductivity/temperature/depth (CTD) casts were used to quantify infaunal diversity and to characterize local environmental conditions. Analysis of still photos found differences in common seafloor microhabitats between the recovering and actively trawled areas, while analysis of videographic data indicated that biogenic mound and biogenic depression microhabitats were significantly less abundant at trawled sites. Each of these features provides structure with which demersal fishes, across a wide range of size classes, have been observed to associate. Epifaunal macro-invertebrates were sparsely distributed and occurred in low numbers in both treatments. However, their total abundance was significantly different between treatments, which was attributable to lower densities at trawled sites. In addition, the dominant taxa were different between the two sites. Patchily-distributed buried brittle stars dominated the recovering site, and sea whips (Halipteris cf. willemoesi) were most numerous at the trawled site though they occurred in only five of ten transects. Numerical classification (cluster analysis) of the infaunal samples also revealed a clear difference between benthic assemblages in the recovering vs. trawled areas due to differences in the relative abundances of component species. There were no major differences in infaunal species richness, H′ diversity, or J′ evenness between recovering vs. trawled site groups. However, total infaunal abundance showed a significant difference attributable to much lower densities at trawled sites. This pattern was driven largely by the small oweniid polychaete Myriochele gracilis, which was the most abundant species in the overall study region though significantly less abundant at trawled sites. Other taxa that were significantly less abundant at trawled sites included the polychaete M. olgae and the polychaete family Terebellidae. In contrast, the thyasirid bivalve Axinopsida serricata and the polychaetes Spiophanes spp. (mostly S. duplex), Prionospio spp., and Scoloplos armiger all had significantly to near significantly higher abundances at trawled sites. As a result of such contrasting species patterns, there also was a significant difference in the overall dominance structure of infaunal assemblages between the two treatments. It is suggested that the observed biological patterns were the result of trawling impacts and varying levels of recovery due to the difference in trawling status between the two areas. The EFH closure was established in June 2006, within a month of when sampling was conducted for the present study, however, the stations within this closure area are at sites that actually have experienced little trawling since 2003, based on National Marine Fishery Service trawl records. Thus, the three-year period would be sufficient time for some post-trawling changes to have occurred. Other results from this study (e.g., similarly moderate numbers of infaunal species in both areas that are lower than values recorded elsewhere in comparable habitats along the California continental shelf) also indicate that recovery within the closure area is not yet complete. Additional sampling is needed to evaluate subsequent recovery trends and persistence of effects. Furthermore, to date, the study has been limited to unconsolidated substrates. Ultimately, the goal of this project is to characterize the recovery trajectories of a wide spectrum of seafloor habitats and communities and to link that recovery to the dynamics of exploited marine fishes. (PDF has 48 pages.)

M/V ELPIS Coral Reef Restoration Monitoring Report Monitoring Events 2004-2007 Florida Keys National Marine Sanctuary, Monroe County, Florida

This document presents the results of the first three monitoring events to track the recovery of a repaired coral reef injured by the M/V Elpis vessel grounding incident of November 11, 1989. This grounding occurred within the boundaries of what at the time was designated the Key Largo National Marine Sanctuary (NMS), now designated the Key Largo NMS Existing Management Area within the Florida Keys National Marine Sanctuary (FKNMS). Pursuant to the National Marine Sanctuaries Act (NMSA) 16 U.S.C. 1431 et seq., and the Florida Keys National Marine Sanctuary and Protection Act (FKNMSPA) of 1990, NOAA is the federal trustee for the natural and cultural resources of the FKNMS. Under Section 312 of the NMSA, NOAA has the authority to recover monetary damages for injury, destruction, or loss of Sanctuary resources, and to use the recovered monies to restore injured or lost sanctuary resources within the FKNMS. The restoration monitoring program tracks patterns of biological recovery, determines the success of restoration measures, and assesses the resiliency to environmental and anthropogenic disturbances of the site over time. To evaluate restoration success, reference habitats adjacent to the restoration site are concurrently monitored to compare the condition of restored reef areas with natural coral reef areas unimpacted by the vessel grounding. Restoration of the site was completed September 1995, and thus far three monitoring events have occurred; one in the summer of 2004, one in the summer of 2005, and the latest in the summer of 2007. The monitoring in 2004 was in the nature of a “pilot project,” or proof of concept. Only the quantitative results of the 2005 and 2007 monitoring are presented and discussed. Monitoring has consisted of assessment of the structural stability of limestone boulders used in the restoration and comparison of the coral communities on the boulders and reference areas. Corals are divided into Gorgonians, Milleporans, and Scleractinians. Coral densities at the Restored and Reference areas for the 2005 and 2007 events are compared, and it is shown that the densities of all taxa in the Restored area are greater by 2007, though not significantly so. For the Scleractinians, number and percentage of colonies by species, as well as several common biodiversity indices are provided. The greater biodiversity of the Restored area is evidenced. Also, size-class frequency distributions for Agaricia spp. (Scleractinia) are presented. These demonstrate the approaching convergence of the Restored and Reference areas in this regard. An inter-annual comparison of densities, within both areas, for all three Orders, is presented. The most noteworthy finding was the relative consistency across time for all taxa in each area. Finally, certain anomalies regarding species settlement patterns are presented. (PDF contains 48 pages.)

Observations of deep coral and sponge assemblages in Olympic Coast National Marine Sanctuary, Washington. Cruise Report: NOAA Ship McArthur II Cruise AR06-07/07

From May 22 to June 4, 2006, NOAA scientists led a research cruise using the ROPOS Remotely Operated Vehicle (ROV) to conduct a series of dives at targeted sites in the Olympic Coast National Marine Sanctuary (OCNMS) with the goal of documenting deep coral and sponge communities. Dive sites were selected from areas for which OCNMS had side scan sonar data indicating the presence of hard or complex substrate. The team completed 11 dives in sanctuary waters ranging from six to 52 hours in length, at depths ranging from 100 to 650 meters. Transect surveys were completed at 15 pre-selected sites, with additional observations made at five other sites. The survey locations included sites both inside and outside the Essential Fish Habitat (EFH) Conservation Area, known as Olympic 2, established by the Pacific Fishery Management Council, enacted on June 12, 2006. Bottom trawling is prohibited in the Olympic 2 Conservation Area for nontribal fishermen. The Conservation Area covers 159.4 square nautical miles or about 15 percent of the sanctuary. Several species of corals and sponges were documented at 14 of the 15 sites surveyed, at sites both inside and outside the Conservation Area, including numerous gorgonians and the stony corals Lophelia pertusa and Desmophyllum dianthus, as well as small patches of the reef building sponge Farrea occa. The team also documented Lophelia sp. and Desmophyllum sp. coral rubble, dead gorgonians, lost fishing gear, and other anthropogenic debris, supporting concerns over potential risks of environmental disturbances to coral health. (PDF contains 60 pages.)

M/V WELLWOOD Coral Reef Restoration Monitoring Report, Monitoring Events 2004-2006. Florida Keys National Marine Sanctuary Monroe County, Florida

This document presents the results of the first two monitoring events to track the recovery of a repaired coral reef injured by the M/V Wellwood vessel grounding incident of August 4, 1984. This grounding occurred within the boundaries of what at the time was designated the Key Largo National Marine Sanctuary (NMS), now designated the Key Largo NMS Existing Management Area within the Florida Keys National Marine Sanctuary (FKNMS). Pursuant to the National Marine Sanctuaries Act (NMSA) 16 U.S.C. 1431 et seq., and the Florida Keys National Marine Sanctuary and Protection Act (FKNMSPA) of 1990, NOAA is the federal trustee for the natural and cultural resources of the FKNMS. Under Section 312 of the NMSA, NOAA has the authority to recover monetary damages for injury, destruction, or loss of Sanctuary resources, and to use the recovered monies to restore injured or lost sanctuary resources within the FKNMS. The restoration monitoring program tracks patterns of biological recovery, determines the success of restoration measures, and assesses the resiliency to environmental and anthropogenic disturbances of the site over time. To evaluate restoration success, reference habitats adjacent to the restoration site are concurrently monitored to compare the condition of restored reef areas with “natural” coral reef areas unimpacted by the vessel grounding or other injury. Restoration of the site was completed on July 22, 2002, and thus far two monitoring events have occurred; one in the Fall of 2004, and one in the Summer/Fall of 2006. The monitoring has consisted of: assessment of the structural stability of restoration modules and comparison of the coral recruitment conditions of the modules and reference sites. Corals are divided into Gorgonians, Milleporans, and Scleractinians and (except where noted) recruits are defined as follows: Gorgonians—maximum size (height) 150 mm at first monitoring event, 270 mm at second; Milleporans—maximum size (height) 65 mm at first event, 125 mm at second; Scleractinians—maximum size (greatest diameter) 50 mm at second event (only one species was size-classed at first event, at smaller size). Recruit densities at the restored and reference areas for each event are compared, as are size-class frequency distributions. For the Scleractinians, number and percentage of recruits by species, as well as several common biodiversity indices are provided. Finally, a qualitative comparison of recruit substrate settlement preference is indicated. Generally, results indicate that restored areas are converging on reference areas, based on almost all parameters examined, with one noted exception. Further monitoring is planned and the trends are anticipated to continue; close attention will be paid to the indicated anomaly. (PDF contains 63 pages.)

M/V CONNECTED Coral Reef Restoration Monitoring Report, Monitoring Events 2004-2005. Florida Keys National Marine Sanctuary Monroe County, Florida

This document presents the results of the monitoring of a repaired coral reef injured by the M/V Connected vessel grounding incident of March 27, 2001. This grounding occurred in Florida state waters within the boundaries of the Florida Keys National Marine Sanctuary (FKNMS). The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the Board of Trustees of the Internal Improvement Trust Fund of the State of Florida, (“State of Florida” or “state”) are the co-trustees for the natural resources within the FKNMS and, thus, are responsible for mediating the restoration of the damaged marine resources and monitoring the outcome of the restoration actions. The restoration monitoring program tracks patterns of biological recovery, determines the success of restoration measures, and assesses the resiliency to environmental and anthropogenic disturbances of the site over time. The monitoring program at the Connected site was to have included an assessment of the structural stability of installed restoration modules and biological condition of reattached corals performed on the following schedule: immediately (i.e., baseline), 1, 3, and 6 years after restoration and following a catastrophic event. Restoration of this site was completed on July 20, 2001. Due to unavoidable delays in the settlement of the case, the “baseline” monitoring event for this site occurred in July 2004. The catastrophic monitoring event occurred on August 31, 2004, some 2 ½ weeks after the passage of Hurricane Charley which passed nearby, almost directly over the Dry Tortugas. In September 2005, the year one monitoring event occurred shortly after the passage of Hurricane Katrina, some 70 km to the NW. This report presents the results of all three monitoring events. (PDF contains 37 pages.)

M/V JACQUELYN L Coral Reef Restoration Monitoring Report, Monitoring Events 2004-2005. Florida Keys National Marine Sanctuary Monroe County, Florida

This document presents the results of the monitoring of a repaired coral reef injured by the M/V Jacquelyn L vessel grounding incident of July 7, 1991. This grounding occurred in Florida state waters within the boundaries of the Florida Keys National Marine Sanctuary (FKNMS). The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the Board of Trustees of the Internal Improvement Trust Fund of the State of Florida, (“State of Florida” or “state”) are the co-trustees for the natural resources within the FKNMS and, thus, are responsible for mediating the restoration of the damaged marine resources and monitoring the outcome of the restoration actions. The restoration monitoring program tracks patterns of biological recovery, determines the success of restoration measures, and assesses the resiliency to environmental and anthropogenic disturbances of the site over time. The monitoring program at the Jacquelyn L site was to have included an assessment of the structural stability of installed restoration modules and biological condition of reattached corals performed on the following schedule: immediately (i.e., baseline), 1, 3, and 6 years after restoration and following a catastrophic event. Restoration of this site was completed on July 20, 2000. Due to unavoidable delays in the settlement of the case, the “baseline” monitoring event for this site occurred in July 2004. The catastrophic monitoring event occurred on August 31, 2004, some 2 ½ weeks after the passage of Hurricane Charley which passed nearby, almost directly over the Dry Tortugas. In September 2005, the year one monitoring event occurred shortly after the passage of Hurricane Katrina, some 70 km to the NW. This report presents the results of all three monitoring events. (PDF contains 31 pages.)

Homestead fish pond and the environment in Nigeria

Homestead fish culture is a recent innovation for mass production of fish at backyard in Nigeria. The processes of pond construction often have resulted in soil disturbances, vegetation losses, and creation of new aquatic environment. The paper discusses homestead ponds in Nigeria, their potential impact on the environment which includes erosion, over flooding, pest and disease, accident risk, undesired fossil fuel production, vegetation destruction and fish genetic conservation, strategies for environmental management in relation to pond construction are suggested

Alterations of the global water cycle and their effects on river structure, function and services

River structure and functioning are governed naturally by geography and climate but are vulnerable to natural and human-related disturbances, ranging from channel engineering to pollution and biological invasions. Biological communities in river ecosystems are able to respond to disturbances faster than those in most other aquatic systems. However, some extremely strong or lasting disturbances constrain the responses of river organisms and jeopardise their extraordinary resilience. Among these, the artificial alteration of river drainage structure and the intense use of water resources by humans may irreversibly influence these systems. The increased canalisation and damming of river courses interferes with sediment transport, alters biogeochemical cycles and leads to a decrease in biodiversity, both at local and global scales. Furthermore, water abstraction can especially affect the functioning of arid and semi-arid rivers. In particular, interception and assimilation of inorganic nutrients can be detrimental under hydrologically abnormal conditions. Among other effects, abstraction and increased nutrient loading might cause a shift from heterotrophy to autotrophy, through direct effects on primary producers and indirect effects through food webs, even in low-light river systems. The simultaneous desires to conserve and to provide ecosystem services present several challenges, both in research and management.

Use of SARIMA models to assess data-poor fisheries: a case study with a sciaenid fishery off Portugal

Research on assessment and monitoring methods has primarily focused on fisheries with long multivariate data sets. Less research exists on methods applicable to data-poor fisheries with univariate data sets with a small sample size. In this study, we examine the capabilities of seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) models to fit, forecast, and monitor the landings of such data-poor fisheries. We use a European fishery on meagre (Sciaenidae: Argyrosomus regius), where only a short time series of landings was available to model (n=60 months), as our case-study. We show that despite the limited sample size, a SARIMA model could be found that adequately fitted and forecasted the time series of meagre landings (12-month forecasts; mean error: 3.5 tons (t); annual absolute percentage error: 15.4%). We derive model-based prediction intervals and show how they can be used to detect problematic situations in the fishery. Our results indicate that over the course of one year the meagre landings remained within the prediction limits of the model and therefore indicated no need for urgent management intervention. We discuss the information that SARIMA model structure conveys on the meagre lifecycle and fishery, the methodological requirements of SARIMA forecasting of data-poor fisheries landings, and the capabilities SARIMA models present within current efforts to monitor the world’s data-poorest resources.

A nursery site of the Alaska skate (Bathyraja parmifera) in the eastern Bering Sea

A nursery site for the Alaska skate (Bathyraja parmifera) was sampled seasonally from June 2004 to July 2005. At the small nursery site (~2 km2), located in a highly productive area near the shelf-slope interface at the head of Bering Canyon in the eastern Bering Sea, reproductive males and females dominated the catch and neonate and juvenile skates were rare. Seasonal samples showed summertime (June and July) as the peak reproductive time in the nursery although some reproduction occurred throughout the year. Timeseries analysis of embryo length frequencies revealed that three cohorts were developing simultaneously and the period of embryonic development was estimated at 3.5 years and average embryo growth rate at 0.2 mm/day. Estimated egg case deposition occurred mainly during summertime and hatching occurred during winter months. Protracted hatching times may be common for oviparous elasmobranch species and may be directly correlated with ambient temperatures as evident from a meta-data analysis. Evidence indicates that the Alaska skate uses the eastern Bering Sea outer continental shelf region for reproduction and the middle and inner shelf regions as habitat for immature and subadults. Skate nurseries may be vulnerable to disturbances because they are located in highly productive areas and because embryos develop slowly.

Removing observational noise from fisheries-independent time series data using ARIMA models

Abundance indices derived from fishery-independent surveys typically exhibit much higher interannual variability than is consistent with the within-survey variance or the life history of a species. This extra variability is essentially observation noise (i.e. measurement error); it probably reflects environmentally driven factors that affect catchability over time. Unfortunately, high observation noise reduces the ability to detect important changes in the underlying population abundance. In our study, a noise-reduction technique for uncorrelated observation noise that is based on autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) time series modeling is investigated. The approach is applied to 18 time series of finfish abundance, which were derived from trawl survey data from the U.S. northeast continental shelf. Although the a priori assumption of a random-walk-plus-uncorrelated-noise model generally yielded a smoothed result that is pleasing to the eye, we recommend that the most appropriate ARIMA model be identified for the observed time series if the smoothed time series will be used for further analysis of the population dynamics of a species.