Investigation and prediction of sea level variations in the northern coasts of Persian Gulf using artificial neural network

Sea- level variations have a significant impact on coastal areas. Prediction of sea level variations expected from the pre most critical information needs associated with the sea environment. For this, various methods exist. In this study, on the northern coast of the Persian Gulf have been studied relation to the effectiveness of parameters such as pressure, temperature and wind speed on sea leve and associated with global parameters such as the North Atlantic Oscillation index and NAO index and present statistic models for prediction of sea level. In the next step by using artificial neural network predict sea level for first in this region. Then compared results of the models. Prediction using statistical models estimated in terms correlation coefficient R = 0.84 and root mean square error (RMS) 21.9 cm for the Bushehr station, and R = 0.85 and root mean square error (RMS) 48.4 cm for Rajai station, While neural network used to have 4 layers and each middle layer six neurons is best for prediction and produces the results reliably in terms of correlation coefficient with R = 0.90126 and the root mean square error (RMS) 13.7 cm for the Bushehr station, and R = 0.93916 and the root mean square error (RMS) 22.6 cm for Rajai station. Therefore, the proposed methodology could be successfully used in the study area.

Encouraging them to come to us: changing the way that information is made available to farmers

Recommendations for changes to service provision and fisheries policy in support of poverty alleviation emerged recently in India from a process know as facilitated advocacy (see Case Study SI 2) that helped to negotiate and support a role for poor people and their service providers, to contribute to changes in services and policies. Two of the key recommendations to emerge from farmers and fishers, which were prioritized by Fisheries Departments, were to change the way that information is made available and to simplify procedures for accessing government schemes and bank loans. This case which identifies the origin of these recommendations to change the way that information is made available, shows how different models of the concept have emerged, and follows the development of the One-stop Aqua Shops (OAS) in the eastern Indian states of Jharkhand, Orissa and West Bengal, that represent a new and vital tier in communications in aquaculture. (12 p.)

Proceedings of the International Workshop on age determination of oceanic pelagic fishes: Tunas, billfishes, and sharks, Miami, Florida, February 15-18,1982

Accurate and precise estimates of age and growth rates are essential parameters in understanding the population dynamics of fishes. Some of the more sophisticated stock assessment models, such as virtual population analysis, require age and growth information to partition catch data by age. Stock assessment efforts by regulatory agencies are usually directed at specific fisheries which are being heavily exploited and are suspected of being overfished. Interest in stock assessment of some of the oceanic pelagic fishes (tunas, billfishes, and sharks) has developed only over the last decade, during which exploitation has increased steadily in response to increases in worldwide demand for these resources. Traditionally, estimating the age of fishes has been done by enumerating growth bands on skeletal hardparts, through length frequency analysis, tag and recapture studies, and raising fish in enclosures. However, problems related to determining the age of some of the oceanic pelagic fishes are unique compared with other species. For example, sampling is difficult for these large, highly mobile fishes because of their size, extensive distributions throughout the world's oceans, and for some, such as the marlins, infrequent catches. In addition, movements of oceanic pelagic fishes often transect temperate as well as tropical oceans, making interpretation of growth bands on skeletal hardparts more difficult than with more sedentary temperate species. Many oceanic pelagics are also long-lived, attaining ages in excess of 30 yr, and more often than not, their life cycles do not lend themselves easily to artificial propagation and culture. These factors contribute to the difficulty of determining ages and are generally characteristic of this group-the tunas, billfishes, and sharks. Accordingly, the rapidly growing international concern in managing oceanic pelagic fishes, as well as unique difficulties in ageing these species, prompted us to hold this workshop. Our two major objectives for this workshop are to: I) Encourage the interchange of ideas on this subject, and 2) establish the "state of the art." A total of 65 scientists from 10 states in the continental United States and Hawaii, three provinces in Canada, France, Republic of Senegal, Spain, Mexico, Ivory Coast, and New South Wales (Australia) attended the workshop held at the Southeast Fisheries Center, Miami, Fla., 15-18 February 1982. Our first objective, encouraging the interchange of ideas, is well illustrated in the summaries of the Round Table Discussions and in the Glossary, which defines terms used in this volume. The majority of the workshop participants agreed that the lack of validation of age estimates and the means to accomplish the same are serious problems preventing advancements in assessing the age and growth of fishes, particularly oceanic pelagics. The alternatives relating to the validation problem were exhaustively reviewed during the Round Table Discussions and are a major highlight of this workshop. How well we accomplished our second objective, to establish the "state of the art" on age determination of oceanic pelagic fishes, will probably best be judged on the basis of these proceedings and whether future research efforts are directed at the problem areas we have identified. In order to produce high-quality papers, workshop participants served as referees for the manuscripts published in this volume. Several papers given orally at the workshop, and included in these proceedings, were summarized from full-length manuscripts, which have been submitted to or published in other scientific outlets-these papers are designated as SUMMARY PAPERS. In addition, the SUMMARY PAPER designation was also assigned to workshop papers that represented very preliminary or initial stages of research, cursory progress reports, papers that were data shy, or provide only brief reviews on general topics. Bilingual abstracts were included for all papers that required translation. We gratefully acknowledge the support of everyone involved in this workshop. Funding was provided by the Southeast Fisheries Center, and Jack C. Javech did the scientific illustrations appearing on the cover, between major sections, and in the Glossary. (PDF file contains 228 pages.)

Applying hedonic property models in the planning and evaluation of shoreline management

According to the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment’s chapter “Coastal Systems” (Agardy and Alder 2005), 40% of the world population falls within 100 km of the coast. Agardy and Alder report that population densities in coastal regions are three times those of inland regions and demographic forecasts suggest a continued rise in coastal populations. These high population levels can be partially traced to the abundance of ecosystem services provided in the coastal zone. While populations benefit from an abundance of services, population pressure also degrades existing services and leads to increased susceptibility of property and human life to natural hazards. In the face of these challenges, environmental administrators on the coast must pursue agendas which reflect the difficult balance between private and public interests. These decisions include maintaining economic prosperity and personal freedoms, protecting or enhancing the existing flow of ecosystem services to society, and mitigating potential losses from natural hazards. (PDF contains 5 pages)

The predicting power of models for eutrophication

Restoration of water-bodies from eutrophication has proved to be extremely difficult. Mathematical models have been used extensively to provide guidance for management decisions. The aim of this paper is to elucidate important problems of using models for predicting environmental changes. First, the necessity for a proper uncertainty assessment of the model, upon calibration, has not been widely recognized. Predictions must not be a single time trajectory; they should be a band, expressing system uncertainty and natural variability. Availability of this information may alter the decision to be taken. Second, even with well-calibrated models, there is no guarantee they will give correct projections in situations where the model is used to predict the effects of measures designed to bring the system into an entirely different ”operating point”, as is typically the case in eutrophication abatement. The concept of educated speculation is introduced to partially overcome this difficulty. Lake Veluwe is used as a case to illustrate the point. Third, as questions become more detailed, such as ”what about expected algal composition”, there is a greater probability of running into fundamental problems that are associated with predicting the behaviour of complex non-linear systems. Some of these systems show extreme initial condition sensitivity and even, perhaps, chaotic behaviour, and are therefore fundamentally unpredictable.

Use of SARIMA models to assess data-poor fisheries: a case study with a sciaenid fishery off Portugal

Research on assessment and monitoring methods has primarily focused on fisheries with long multivariate data sets. Less research exists on methods applicable to data-poor fisheries with univariate data sets with a small sample size. In this study, we examine the capabilities of seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) models to fit, forecast, and monitor the landings of such data-poor fisheries. We use a European fishery on meagre (Sciaenidae: Argyrosomus regius), where only a short time series of landings was available to model (n=60 months), as our case-study. We show that despite the limited sample size, a SARIMA model could be found that adequately fitted and forecasted the time series of meagre landings (12-month forecasts; mean error: 3.5 tons (t); annual absolute percentage error: 15.4%). We derive model-based prediction intervals and show how they can be used to detect problematic situations in the fishery. Our results indicate that over the course of one year the meagre landings remained within the prediction limits of the model and therefore indicated no need for urgent management intervention. We discuss the information that SARIMA model structure conveys on the meagre lifecycle and fishery, the methodological requirements of SARIMA forecasting of data-poor fisheries landings, and the capabilities SARIMA models present within current efforts to monitor the world’s data-poorest resources.

Pinniped diet composition: a comparison of estimation models

Along the west coast of the United States, the potential impact of increasing pinniped populations on declining salmonid (Oncorhynchus spp.) stocks has become an issue of concern. Fisheries managers need species-specific estimates of consumption by pinnipeds to evaluate their impact on salmonid stocks. To estimate consumption, we developed a model that estimates diet composition by reconstructing prey biomass from fecal samples. We applied the model to data collected from harbor seals (Phoca vitulina) that are present year-round in the lower Columbia River where endangered stocks of salmonids pass as returning adults and as seaward-migrating smolts. Using the same data, we applied the split-sample frequency of occurrence model, which avoids reconstructing biomass by assuming that each fecal sample represents an equal volume of consumption and that within each sample each prey item represents an equal proportion of the volume. The two models for estimating diet composition yielded size-specific differences in consumption estimates that were as large as tenfold for the smallest and largest prey. Conclusions about the impact of harbor seal predation on adult salmonids, some of their largest prey species, remain uncertain without some appropriate rationale or further information (e.g. empirical captive studies) to discriminate between these models.

Microbiological evaluation and keeping quality of fishes reared in livestock sewage fed ponds without artificial feed

Livestock sewage has been utilized for fish culture. There is lack of information on microbiological evaluation and keeping quality of these fishes. This paper reveals the incidence, types of micro-organisms and keeping quality of fishes reared in livestock sewage fed ponds without artificial feed. These fishes revealed microbial incidence and keeping quality comparable to other fishes. Initial mesophilic and psychrophilic counts varied from 3.38 to 5.56 and 2.47 to 4.74. On an average, the counts reduced by about 40% after evisceration and washing. Whole as well as washed fishes had refrigerated (8 ± 1°C) life of not more than 4 days. The average psychrophilic and mesophilic counts of ice (0 to 1°C) stored whole fishes up to 10th day varied from 3.66 to 4.81, 4.61 to 5.24 and in eviscerated and washed fishes 2.17 to 3.69 and 2.78 to 4.41. Both remained acceptable till the 10th day. Qualitative study of surface slime and gills revealed presence of Aerobacter (Enterobacter), Aeromonas, Alcaligenes, Bacillus, Clostridia, E. coli, Klebsiella, Micrococci, Proteus and Pseudomonas.

The study of artificial propagation efficiency and fingerlings production of Coregonus lavaretus

In order to study of the artificial propagation efficiency in white fish (Coregonus lavaretus) and its fingerlings producing in IRAN, a 9 mounts study project was been done which during it, the characteristics of the matures and brood stocks fishes, the condition of their natural and artificial propagation, and the characteristics of produced frys, were been studied. Throughout the total 82 pieces caught fishes during September til February 2003, 10 pieces of them were the female brood stocks which during the catch time did not have spouse. The study of these fishes showed that there was no significant correlation between their weight and their length. The most and the least absolute fecundity of these brood stocks were 19120 and 11496 respectively. The artificial propagation was been done by 5 males and 4 females broods took which 57602 ova, with 89/2% fertilization rate, earned from them. The incubation period prolonged 55 days in 8°c. At the end of the incubation, 23913 larvae released. So the artificial propagation efficiency was calculated 41/51% in this study. Yolk sack absorption prolonged 4 days. 3 different food treatment were considered for fry breeding which contain of Brachiouns plicatilis as live food, salmon starter food as commercial food, and the mixed of equal amounts of live and commercial foods as third treatment. For each treatment, 3 repeat has been considered. Breeding duration prolonged 13 weeks throughout this period, different characteristics of fry were been studied weekly. The breeding results showed that there was very significant correlation between the weight and the length of frys. However the live food provided better results in growth and survival rate of frys during breeding initial 6 weeks. More ever, commercial food, in some characteristics, provided more acceptable results in comparing the live food after sixth week. The results of this study project showed that the artificial propagation in whitefish is possible in IRAN and the producing of its frys in order to restocking or introducing this species to the other Iranian suitable water resources is executable. Based on the earned information from this study, the suitable time for natural spawning of whitefish in IRAN (Amirkabir dam lake) determined between 10th January til 20th February.