Cruise Report: Spring 2007 Survey of ecological conditions along the continental shelf off Florida from Anclote Key to West Palm Beach NOAA Ship NANCY FOSTER NF-07-08-NCCOS (May 15 - May 28, 2007)

This cruise report is a summary of a field survey conducted in coastal-ocean waters off Florida from Anclote Key to West Palm Beach and from approximately 1 nautical mile (nm) offshore seaward to the shelf break (100 m). The survey was conducted May 15 - May 28, 2007 on NOAA Ship NANCY FOSTER Cruise NF-07-08-NCCOS. Multiple indicators of ecological condition were sampled synoptically at each of 50 stations throughout the region including 10 stations within the Florida Keys National Marine Sanctuary (FKNMS) using a random probabilistic sampling design. Samples were collected for the analysis of benthic community structure and composition; concentrations of chemical contaminants (metals, pesticides, PAHs, PCBs, PBDEs) in sediments and target demersal biota; nutrient and chlorophyll levels in the water column; and other basic habitat characteristics such as depth, salinity, temperature, dissolved oxygen, pH, sediment grain size, and organic carbon content. The overall purpose of the survey was to collect data to assess the status of ecological condition in coastal-ocean waters of the region, based on these various indicators, and to provide this information as a baseline for determining how environmental conditions may be changing with time. The results will be of value in helping to broaden our understanding of the status of ecological resources and their controlling factors, including impacts of potential ecosystem stressors, in such strategic coastal areas. (PDF contains 34 pages

Use of SARIMA models to assess data-poor fisheries: a case study with a sciaenid fishery off Portugal

Research on assessment and monitoring methods has primarily focused on fisheries with long multivariate data sets. Less research exists on methods applicable to data-poor fisheries with univariate data sets with a small sample size. In this study, we examine the capabilities of seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) models to fit, forecast, and monitor the landings of such data-poor fisheries. We use a European fishery on meagre (Sciaenidae: Argyrosomus regius), where only a short time series of landings was available to model (n=60 months), as our case-study. We show that despite the limited sample size, a SARIMA model could be found that adequately fitted and forecasted the time series of meagre landings (12-month forecasts; mean error: 3.5 tons (t); annual absolute percentage error: 15.4%). We derive model-based prediction intervals and show how they can be used to detect problematic situations in the fishery. Our results indicate that over the course of one year the meagre landings remained within the prediction limits of the model and therefore indicated no need for urgent management intervention. We discuss the information that SARIMA model structure conveys on the meagre lifecycle and fishery, the methodological requirements of SARIMA forecasting of data-poor fisheries landings, and the capabilities SARIMA models present within current efforts to monitor the world’s data-poorest resources.