31 resultados para Agriculture Forecasting

em Aquatic Commons


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Foreword [pdf, < 0.1 MB] Acknowledgements PHASE 1 [pdf, 0.2 MB] Summary of the PICES/NPRB Workshop on Forecasting Climate Impacts on Future Production of Commercially Exploited Fish and Shellfish (July 19–20, 2007, Seattle, U.S.A.) Background Links to Other Programs Workshop Format Session I. Status of climate change scenarios in the PICES region Session II. What are the expected impacts of climate change on regional oceanography and what are some scenarios for these drivers for the next 10 years? Session III. Recruitment forecasting Session IV. What models are out there? How is climate linked to the model? Session V. Assumptions regarding future fishing scenarios and enhancement activities Session VI Where do we go from here? References Appendix 1.1 List of Participants PHASE 2 [pdf, 0.7 MB] Summary of the PICES/NPRB Workshop on Forecasting Climate Impacts on Future Production of Commercially Exploited Fish and Shellfish (October 30, 2007, Victoria, Canada) Background Workshop Agenda Forecast Feasibility Format of Information Modeling Approaches Coupled bio-physical models Stock assessment projection models Comparative approaches Similarities in Data Requests Opportunities for Coordination with Other PICES Groups and International Efforts BACKGROUND REPORTS PREPARED FOR THE PHASE 2 WORKSHOP Northern California Current (U.S.) groundfish production by Melissa Haltuch Changes in sablefish (Anoplopoma fimbria) recruitment in relation to oceanographic conditions by Michael J. Schirripa Northern California Current (British Columbia) Pacific cod (Gadus macrocephalus) production by Caihong Fu and Richard Beamish Northern California Current (British Columbia) sablefish (Anoplopoma fimbria) production by Richard Beamish Northern California Current (British Columbia) pink (Oncorhynchus gorbuscha) and chum (O. keta) salmon production by Richard Beamish Northern California Current (British Columbia) ocean shrimp (Pandalus jordani) production by Caihong Fu Alaska salmon production by Anne Hollowed U.S. walleye pollock (Theragra chalcogramma) production in the eastern Bering Sea and Gulf of Alaska by Kevin Bailey and Anne Hollowed U.S. groundfish production in the eastern Bering Sea by Tom Wilderbuer U.S. crab production in the eastern Bering Sea by Gordon H. Kruse Forecasting Japanese commercially exploited species by Shin-ichi Ito, Kazuaki Tadokoro and Yasuhiro Yamanka Russian fish production in the Japan/East Sea by Yury Zuenko, Vladimir Nuzhdin and Natalia Dolganova Chum salmon (Oncorhynchus keta) production in Korea by Sukyung Kang, Suam Kim and Hyunju Seo Jack mackerel (Trachurus japonicus) production in Korea by Jae Bong Lee and Chang-Ik Zhang Chub mackerel (Scomber japonicus) production in Korea by Jae Bong Lee, Sukyung Kang, Suam Kim, Chang-Ik Zhang and Jin Yeong Kim References Appendix 2.1 List of Participants PHASE 3 [pdf, < 0.1 MB] Summary of the PICES Workshop on Linking Global Climate Model Output to (a) Trends in Commercial Species Productivity and (b) Changes in Broader Biological Communities in the World’s Oceans (May 18, 2008, Gijón, Spain) Appendix 3.1 List of Participants Appendix 3.2 Workshop Agenda (Document contains 101 pages)

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Includes Exotic Mollusca in California, by G. Dallas Hanna p.298-321.(PDF contains 57 pages.)

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Almost all extreme events lasting less than several weeks that significantly impact ecosystems are weather related. This review examines the response of estuarine systems to intense short-term perturbations caused by major weather events such as hurricanes. Current knowledge concerning these effects is limited to relatively few studies where hurricanes and storms impacted estuaries with established environmental monitoring programs. Freshwater inputs associated with these storms were found to initially result in increased primary productivity. When hydrographic conditions are favorable, bacterial consumption of organic matter produced by the phytoplankton blooms and deposited during the initial runoff event can contribute to significant oxygen deficits during subsequent warmer periods. Salinity stress and habitat destruction associated with freshwater inputs, as well as anoxia, adversely affect benthic populations and fish. In contrast, mobile invertebrate species such as shrimp, which have a short life cycle and the ability to migrate during the runoff event, initially benefit from the increased primary productivity and decreased abundance of fish predators. Events studied so far indicate that estuaries rebound in one to three years following major short-term perturbations. However, repeated storm events without sufficient recovery time may cause a fundamental shift in ecosystem structure (Scavia et al. 2002). This is a scenario consistent with the predicted increase in hurricanes for the east coast of the United States. More work on the response of individual species to these stresses is needed so management of commercial resources can be adjusted to allow sufficient recovery time for affected populations.

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Policy makers, natural resource managers, regulators, and the public often call on scientists to estimate the potential ecological changes caused by both natural and human-induced stresses, and to determine how those changes will impact people and the environment. To develop accurate forecasts of ecological changes we need to: 1) increase understanding of ecosystem composition, structure, and functioning, 2) expand ecosystem monitoring and apply advanced scientific information to make these complex data widely available, and 3) develop and improve forecast and interpretative tools that use a scientific basis to assess the results of management and science policy actions. (PDF contains 120 pages)

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The WorldFish Center in conjunction with World Vision Malawi carried out a project to improve income and nutrition status of households affected by HIV and AIDS with funding from the World Bank. The project was implemented in Southern Malawi particularly in the West of Zomba District from July 2005 to June 2006. Through participatory approaches, the project identified constraints that limit HIV and AIDS affected households’ realisation of the benefits from fish farming and adapted technologies and practices for the affected beneficiaries to boost fish production and utilization. Specifically, the project sought (1) to identify the constraints that limit HIV and AIDS affected households to realise the benefits from fish farming and based on the constraints, (2) to adapt technologies and practices for use by the affected beneficiaries to boost fish production and utilization. (PDF cotains 17 pages)

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The monthly and seasonal water requirements of a small fish pond (0.068ha; maximum capacity of 613.83m super(3)) at the University of Agriculture, Makurdi Fish Farm (Benue, Nigeria) were determined during the period of February to August 1996. The sources of water for the pond were rainfall, (103.4cm), run-off (6.3cm) and regulated inflow (95.0cm). The water loss for the period were Evapotranspiration, (106.74cm), Seepage (71.64cm) and regulated discharge (25.00cm). Evapotranspiration was identified as the main source of water loss while rainfall was the major source of water gain. The mean monthly water deficit was 24.56~c11.43cm while the mean monthly surplus was 9.84~c8.05cm. The quantity of water required to maintain the optimal water level in the pond was 474.00m super(3). Preliminary water budget of the study area showed that rainfed aquaculture can be effectively carried out at Makurdi during the months of June to October with supplementary inflows during the dry season months

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Despite the expenditure of huge amounts of money and human effort, the Green Revolution has largely failed to benefit the vast majority of the rural poor in Africa: those smallholding farmers who sell little, if any, of what they grow and rely almost entirely upon natural soil fertility, rainfall and traditional broodstock and seed varieties. New approaches on food production and income generation in the rural areas must be found if this sector of agricultural community is to be assisted. Integrated resources management (IRM) in general, and integrated agriculture-aquaculture (IAA) in particular, may offer some solutions in cases where the classical methods of improving farm output have failed and/or been unsustainable.

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The article suggests a preliminary list of properties as a point of departure for quantifying various ecological facets of the integrated agriculture-aquaculture farms.

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Malawi is a small but densely populated country in Southern Africa. Fish is an important part of the nutrition of Malawians, providing essential protein and micronutrients. However, per capita fish consumption has halved over the ten-year period between 1988 to 1998 due to over-fishing in the lakes and doubling of the population since the 1970s, accompanied by an increase in the price of fish. This has worsened access to food insecurity, especially in rural areas, in a country where an estimated 66 per cent of the population consume less than the minimum daily calorie requirement. This paper presents an ex-post impact assessment of the development and dissemination of smallscale integrated aquaculture-agriculture technologies by The WorldFish Center and its national and international partners over more than 15 years in Malawi. The impact study measures the effects of these outputs on the degree of integrated aquaculture-agriculture (IAA) technology adoption and diffusion, the effects on farm income and health of household members, and the welfare effects of increased fish supply on the Malawian economy.

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The effect of aquaculture, especially shrimp farming, on agriculture has caused heated debate among aquaculturists, agriculturists, and non-governmental organizations. As data on the negative impact of shrimp farming on adjacent rice fields are not available, a study was undertaken in rice fields skirting three shrimp farms: a semi-intensive farm; an extensive farm; and a semi-intensive farm with a buffer zone. The buffer zone was found to be helpful in preventing salinization of the adjacent agricultural fields and the Electrical Conductivity (EC) values (less than 1) reported were found to be harmless to the rice crop. Thus, aquaculture and agriculture can coexist in coastal areas if there are buffer zones in between.

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The integration of agriculture and aquaculture as a means of intensifying resource use and improving the productivity of many current farming practices in Southeast Asian and African countries is discussed. A brief account is given of work undertaken by ICLARM in Malawi and India regarding the improved use of marginal lands to integrate crops, vegetables, trees, livestock and fish, outlining also the various problems involved in the extension of such integrated fish farming systems.

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In this paper we present livestock breeding developments that could be taken into consideration in the genetic improvement of farmed aquaculture species, especially in freshwater fish. Firstly, the current breeding objective in aquatic species has focused almost exclusively on the improvement of body weight at harvest or on growth related traits. This is unlikely to be sufficient to meet the future needs of the aquaculture industry. To meet future demands breeding programs will most likely have to include additional traits, such as fitness related ones (survival, disease resistance), feed efficiency, or flesh quality, rather than only growth performance. In order to select for a multi-trait breeding objective, genetic variation in traits of interest and the genetic relationships among them need to be estimated. In addition, economic values for these traits will be required. Generally, there is a paucity of data on variable and fixed production costs in aquaculture, and this could be a major constraint in the further expansion of the breeding objectives. Secondly, genetic evaluation systems using the restricted maximum likelihood method (REML) and best linear unbiased prediction (BLUP) in a framework of mixed model methodology could be widely adopted to replace the more commonly used method of mass selection based on phenotypic performance. The BLUP method increases the accuracy of selection and also allows the management of inbreeding and estimation of genetic trends. BLUP is an improvement over the classic selection index approach, which was used in the success story of the genetically improved farmed tilapia (GIFT) in the Philippines, with genetic gains from 10 to 20 per cent per generation of selection. In parallel with BLUP, optimal genetic contribution theory can be applied to maximize genetic gain while constraining inbreeding in the long run in selection programs. Thirdly, by using advanced statistical methods, genetic selection can be carried out not only at the nucleus level but also in lower tiers of the pyramid breeding structure. Large scale across population genetic evaluation through genetic connectedness using cryopreserved sperm enables the comparison and ranking of genetic merit of all animals across populations, countries or years, and thus the genetically superior brood stock can be identified and widely used and exchanged to increase the rate of genetic progress in the population as a whole. It is concluded that sound genetic programs need to be established for aquaculture species. In addition to being very effective, fully pedigreed breeding programs would also enable the exploration of possibilities of integrating molecular markers (e.g., genetic tagging using DNA fingerprinting, marker (gene) assisted selection) and reproductive technologies such as in-vitro fertilization using cryopreserved spermatozoa.

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With its genesis in New England during the 1800's, the purse seine fishery for Atlantic menhaden, Brevoortia tyrannus, expanded south and by the early 1900's ranged the length of the eastern seaboard. The purse seine fishery for Gulf menhaden. B. patronus, is of relatively recent development, exploitation of the stock beginning in the late 1940's. Landings from both fisheries annually comprise 35-40% of the total U. S. fisheries landings, ranking menhaden first in terms of volume landed. Technological advances in harvesting methods, fish-spotting capabilities, and vessel designs accelerated after World War II, resulting in larger, faster, and wider-ranging carrier vessels, improved speed and efficiency of the harvest, and reduction in labor requirements. Chief products of the menhaden industry are fish meal, fish oil, and solubles, but research into new product lines is underway. Since 1955 on the Atlantic coast and 1964 on the Gulf coast, the NMFS has monitored the fisheries for biostatistical data. Annual data summaries of numbers-of-fish-at-age harvested, catch tonnage, and fishing effort of the fleet form the basis of routine stock assessments and annual catch forecasts to industry for the upcoming fishing season. After landings declined in the 1960's, the Atlantic menhaden stock has recovered through the 1970's and 1980's. Exceptional year classes of Gulf menhaden in recent years account for record landings during the 1980's.