The near-AD 1600 multi-proxy puzzle

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): A varve chronology with annual resolution (AD 1117-1992) has been developed recently for Santa Barbara Basin. Varve thickness and water content show an exponential trend consistent with expected patterns in the presence of sediment compaction over time. Annual varve thickness was decomposed into orthogonal components using singular spectrum analysis (SSA) to identify and retrieve inter-decadal oscillations. ... This suggests a connection with global-scale decadal cycles identified in the subtropical Pacific gyre circulation and, possibly, with solar-driven phenomena. The near-1600 AD event coincides with (a) a similarly sudden change of state in nearby Santa Monica Basin that triggered the onset of anoxic conditions and the preservation of laminated sediments, (b) an extreme drought over the American Southwest, (c) a transformation of the age structure in a number of forest populations throughout Arizona and New Mexico. Total organic carbon burial flux in Santa Barbara Basin varves also shows a marked change after AD 1600. A possible climatic link is proposed that involves pathways for moisture transport in the Southwest at decadal and longer time scales.