Overfishing, uncertainty, and ocean governance: Lord Perry's question revisited

“Why does overfishing persist in the face of regulation?” The author argues that over fishing,a fundamental cause of the crisis facing our oceans, is the result of the failure of our fishing management agencies (ultimately our politicians and communities) to embrace a small suite of powerful tools (more correctly strategic approaches) which have been developed to account for uncertainty. Broad success in managing fisheries to achieve sustainability goals will only come if these tools are enthusiastically applied. This will not happen until organisational cultures within fishery management agencies undergo a major shift leading to an asset-based biodiversity conservation, rather than resource exploitation, to be placed at the centre of ocean governance.This thesis examines these issues in the context of case studies covering regional, national and provincial (State) fishery management agencies. With the exception of the case study of a regional fishery (the southern ocean krill fishery) all case studies are drawn from Australian experiences. The central recommendation of the thesis is that fishery management agencies, worldwide, should be replaced by biodiversity asset management agencies.

A meta-analytic approach to quantifying scientific uncertainty in stock assessments

Quantifying scientific uncertainty when setting total allowable catch limits for fish stocks is a major challenge, but it is a requirement in the United States since changes to national fisheries legislation. Multiple sources of error are readily identifiable, including estimation error, model specification error, forecast error, and errors associated with the definition and estimation of reference points. Our focus here, however, is to quantify the influence of estimation error and model specification error on assessment outcomes. These are fundamental sources of uncertainty in developing scientific advice concerning appropriate catch levels and although a study of these two factors may not be inclusive, it is feasible with available information. For data-rich stock assessments conducted on the U.S. west coast we report approximate coefficients of variation in terminal biomass estimates from assessments based on inversion of the assessment of the model’s Hessian matrix (i.e., the asymptotic standard error). To summarize variation “among” stock assessments, as a proxy for model specification error, we characterize variation among multiple historical assessments of the same stock. Results indicate that for 17 groundfish and coastal pelagic species, the mean coefficient of variation of terminal biomass is 18%. In contrast, the coefficient of variation ascribable to model specification error (i.e., pooled among-assessment variation) is 37%. We show that if a precautionary probability of overfishing equal to 0.40 is adopted by managers, and only model specification error is considered, a 9% reduction in the overfishing catch level is indicated.

Dividing population genetic distance data with the software Partitioning Optimization with Restricted Growth Strings (PORGS): an application for Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha), Vancouver Island, British Columbia

A new method of finding the optimal group membership and number of groupings to partition population genetic distance data is presented. The software program Partitioning Optimization with Restricted Growth Strings (PORGS), visits all possible set partitions and deems acceptable partitions to be those that reduce mean intracluster distance. The optimal number of groups is determined with the gap statistic which compares PORGS results with a reference distribution. The PORGS method was validated by a simulated data set with a known distribution. For efficiency, where values of n were larger, restricted growth strings (RGS) were used to bipartition populations during a nested search (bi-PORGS). Bi-PORGS was applied to a set of genetic data from 18 Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) populations from the west coast of Vancouver Island. The optimal grouping of these populations corresponded to four geographic locations: 1) Quatsino Sound, 2) Nootka Sound, 3) Clayoquot +Barkley sounds, and 4) southwest Vancouver Island. However, assignment of populations to groups did not strictly reflect the geographical divisions; fish of Barkley Sound origin that had strayed into the Gold River and close genetic similarity between transferred and donor populations meant groupings crossed geographic boundaries. Overall, stock structure determined by this partitioning method was similar to that determined by the unweighted pair-group method with arithmetic averages (UPGMA), an agglomerative clustering algorithm.

Use of genetic data to assess the uncertainty in stock assessments due to the assumed stock structure: the case of albacore (Thunnus alalunga) from the Atlantic Ocean

Stock assessments can be problematic because of uncertainties associated with the data or because of simplified assumptions made when modeling biological processes (Rosenberg and Restrepo, 1995). For example, the common assumption in stock assessments that stocks are homogeneous and discrete (i.e., there is no migration between the stocks) is not necessarily true (Kell et al., 2004a, 2004b).

Beverton and Holt equations: spreadsheet functions and uncertainty

This contribution illustrates how modern spreadsheets aid the calculation and visualization of yield models and how the effects of uncertainties may be incorporated using Monte Carlo simulation. It is argued that analogous approaches can be implemented for other assessment models of simple to medium complexity justifying wider use of spreadsheets in fisheries analysis and training.

Optimization of stocking density for environmental-friendly improved extensive shrimp farming system in south-west part of Bangladesh

An experimental culture practice of P. monodon on extension approach was conducted in two brackish water earthen ponds of Demonstration Farm and Training Center (DFTC), Kaliganj, Satkhira. The experiment was aimed to provide farmers with appropriate technology that can immediately improve pond yield with keeping the environment in friendly condition. For optimization of stocking density of a cost effective environmental friendly improved extensive shrimp farming, the ponds were stocked with coastal river post larvae of P. monodon at the stocking rates of 2 pls/m² and 2.5 pls/m² without supplementary feeding. To control experimental error another five farmer's gher were used as replicates of each demo-pond. Considering the farmers buying ability, cost of inputs and other facilities kept minimal. The impact of stocking density was evaluated on the basis of growth, survival rate, production and economic return. Better production (average 299.01 kg/ha) with same survival rate (39.33%) were found with a stocking density of 2.5 pls/m² without causing any deterioration in the culture environment.

Optimization of dose of methyltestosterone (MT) hormone for sex reversal in tilapia (Oreochromis niloticus L.)

This paper describes the optimization of dose of methyltestosteronei (MT) hormone for masculinization of tilapia (Oreochromis niloticus). Five treatments (i.e. T1 T2, T2, T4 and T5) with different doses such as 0, 40, 50, 60 and 65 mg of MT hormone were mixed with per kg of feed for each treatment and fed the fry four times a day up to satiation for a period of 30 days. The stocking density was maintained 10 spawn/liter of water. The growth of fry at different treatments was recorded weekly and mortality was recorded daily. At the end of hormone feeding the fry were reared in hapas fixed in ponds for another 70 days and at the 100th day the fish were sexed by the gonad squashing and aceto-carmine staining method. The analysis of growth data did not show any significant variation in length and weight of fish among the different treatments. High mortality of fry ranging 66% to 81.6% was observed in different treatments and highest mortality was observed during the first twelve days of the experiment. The sex ratio analysis showed that T2 (40 mg/kg) and T5 (65 mg/kg) produced 93.33% of sex reversed male and T3 (50 mg/kg) and T4 (60 mg/kg) produced 96.66% sex reversed male, and these ratios were significantly (p<0.05) different from 1:1 male: female sex ratio. The control, T1 (0 mg/kg) contained 43.33% male progeny. From these results it is suggested that either 50 mg/kg or 60 mg/kg of MT with a feeding period of 30 days could be considered as an optimum dose for masculinization of tilapia (O. niloticus).