The distribution and size composition of finfish, American lobster, and long-finned squid in Long Island Sound based on the Connecticut Fisheries Division Bottom Trawl Survey, 1984–1994

The distribution, abundance, and length composition of marine finfish, lobster, and squid in Long Island Sound were examined relative to season and physical features of the Sound, using Connecticut Department of Environmental Protection trawl survey data collected from 1984 to 1994. The following are presented: seasonal distribution maps for 59 species, abundance indices for 41 species, and length frequencies for 26 species. In addition, a broader view of habitat utilization in the Sound was examined by mapping aggregated catches (total catch per tow, demersal catch per tow, and pelagic catch per tow) and by comparing species richness and mean aggregate catch/tow by analysis of variance (ANOVA) among eight habitat types defined by depth interval and bottom type. For many individual species, seasonal migration patterns and preference for particular areas within Long Island Sound were evident. The aggregate distribution maps show that overall abundance was lower in the eastern Sound than the central and western portions. Demersal and pelagic temporal abundance show opposite trends—demersals were abundant in spring and declined through summer and fall, whereas pelagic abundance was low in spring and increased into fall. The analysis of habitat types revealed significant differences for both species richness and mean catch per tow. Generally, species richness was highest in habitats within the central area of the Sound and lowest in eastern habitats. The aggregate mean catch was highest in the western and central habitats, and declined eastward. (PDF file contains 199 pages.)

Historie und aktueller Stand des Internationalen Heringslarvensurveys in der Nordsee

Since years the International Herring Larvae Survey Program (IHLS) is an important and internationally established survey program in the North Sea. The IHLS serves the calibration of stock abundance estimates based on information from the commercial fishery and the method of Integrated Catch Analysis (ICA) which is a specific derivate of the Virtual Population Analysis (VPA). Meanwhile the IHLS database has been transferred from Aberdeen to Kiel and it has been agreed that the Institut für Meereskunde Kiel should continue to maintain this database and provide the abundance indices to be utilized by the ICES Herring Assessment Working Group as one of the means for assessing the state of the herring stock in the North Sea. For establishing the calculation procedure at Kiel, it was necessary to optimize both, the survey design and the index calculation. This article gives an overview over the survey’s history, it’s geography, the sampling design, the information content of the IHLS data base and the various methods of calculating the different indices necessary for the calibration.

Catches per unit of effort of bigeye tuna: a new analysis with regression trees and simulated annealing

ENGLISH: We analyzed catches per unit of effort (CPUE) from the Japanese longline fishery for bigeye tuna (Thunnus obesus) in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean (EPO) with regression tree methods. Regression trees have not previously been used to estimate time series of abundance indices fronl CPUE data. The "optimally sized" tree had 139 parameters; year, month, latitude, and longitude interacted to affect bigeye CPUE. The trend in tree-based abundance indices for the EPO was similar to trends estimated from a generalized linear model and fronl an empirical model that combines oceanographic data with information on the distribution of fish relative to environmental conditions. The regression tree was more parsimonious and would be easier to implement than the other two nl0dels, but the tree provided no information about the nlechanisms that caused bigeye CPUEs to vary in time and space. Bigeye CPUEs increased sharply during the mid-1980's and were more variable at the northern and southern edges of the fishing grounds. Both of these results can be explained by changes in actual abundance and changes in catchability. Results from a regression tree that was fitted to a subset of the data indicated that, in the EPO, bigeye are about equally catchable with regular and deep longlines. This is not consistent with observations that bigeye are more abundant at depth and indicates that classification by gear type (regular or deep longline) may not provide a good measure of capture depth. Asimulated annealing algorithm was used to summarize the tree-based results by partitioning the fishing grounds into regions where trends in bigeye CPUE were similar. Simulated annealing can be useful for designing spatial strata in future sampling programs. SPANISH: Analizamos la captura por unidad de esfuerzo (CPUE) de la pesquería palangrera japonesa de atún patudo (Thunnus obesus) en el Océano Pacifico oriental (OPO) y central con métodos de árbol de regresión. Hasta ahora no se han usado árboles de regresión para estimar series de tiempo de índices de abundancia a partir de datos de CPUE. EI árbol de "tamaño optimo" tuvo 139 parámetros; ano, mes, latitud, y longitud interactuaron para afectar la CPUE de patudo. La tendencia en los índices de abundancia basados en árboles para el OPO fue similar a las tendencias estimadas con un modelo lineal generalizado y con un modelo empírico que combina datos oceanográficos con información sobre la distribución de los peces en relación con las condiciones ambientales. EI árbol de regresión fue mas parsimonioso y seria mas fácil de utilizar que los dos otros modelos, pero no proporciono información sobre los mecanismos que causaron que las CPUE de patudo valiaran en el tiempo y en el espacio. Las CPUE de patudo aumentaron notablemente a mediados de los anos 80 y fueron mas variables en los extremos norte y sur de la zona de pesca. Estos dos resultados pueden ser explicados por cambios en la abundancia real y cambios en la capturabilidad. Los resultados de un arbal de regresión ajustado a un subconjunto de los datos indican que, en el OPO, el patudo es igualmente capturable con palangres regulares y profundos. Esto no es consistente con observaciones de que el patudo abunda mas a profundidad e indica que clasificación por tipo de arte (palangre regular 0 profundo) podría no ser una buena medida de la profundidad de captura. Se uso un algoritmo de templado simulado para resumir los resultados basados en el árbol clasificando las zonas de pesca en zonas con tendencias similares en la CPUE de patudo. El templado simulado podría ser útil para diseñar estratos espaciales en programas futuros de muestreo. (PDF contains 45 pages.)

Using experiments and expert judgment to model catchability of Pacific rockfishes in trawl surveys, with application to bocaccio (Sebastes paucispinis) off British Columbia

The time series of abundance indices for many groundfish populations, as determined from trawl surveys, are often imprecise and short, causing stock assessment estimates of abundance to be imprecise. To improve precision, prior probability distributions (priors) have been developed for parameters in stock assessment models by using meta-analysis, expert judgment on catchability, and empirically based modeling. This article presents a synthetic approach for formulating priors for rockfish trawl survey catchability (qgross). A multivariate prior for qgross for different surveys is formulated by using 1) a correction factor for bias in estimating fish density between trawlable and untrawlable areas, 2) expert judgment on trawl net catchability, 3) observations from trawl survey experiments, and 4) data on the fraction of population biomass in each of the areas surveyed. The method is illustrated by using bocaccio (Sebastes paucipinis) in British Columbia. Results indicate that expert judgment can be updated markedly by observing the catch-rate ratio from different trawl gears in the same areas. The marginal priors for qgross are consistent with empirical estimates obtained by fitting a stock assessment model to the survey data under a noninformative prior for qgross. Despite high prior uncertainty (prior coefficients of variation ≥0.8) and high prior correlation between qgross, the prior for qgross still enhances the precision of key stock assessment quantities.

Removing observational noise from fisheries-independent time series data using ARIMA models

Abundance indices derived from fishery-independent surveys typically exhibit much higher interannual variability than is consistent with the within-survey variance or the life history of a species. This extra variability is essentially observation noise (i.e. measurement error); it probably reflects environmentally driven factors that affect catchability over time. Unfortunately, high observation noise reduces the ability to detect important changes in the underlying population abundance. In our study, a noise-reduction technique for uncorrelated observation noise that is based on autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) time series modeling is investigated. The approach is applied to 18 time series of finfish abundance, which were derived from trawl survey data from the U.S. northeast continental shelf. Although the a priori assumption of a random-walk-plus-uncorrelated-noise model generally yielded a smoothed result that is pleasing to the eye, we recommend that the most appropriate ARIMA model be identified for the observed time series if the smoothed time series will be used for further analysis of the population dynamics of a species.

Age composition and distribution of red drum (Sciaenops ocellatus) in offshore waters of the north central Gulf of Mexico: an evaluation of a stock under a federal harvest moratorium

Because of a lack of fishery-dependent data, assessment of the recovery of fish stocks that undergo the most aggressive form of management, namely harvest moratoriums, remains a challenge. Large schools of red drum (Sciaenops ocellatus) were common along the northern Gulf of Mexico until the late 1980s when increased fishing effort quickly depleted the stock. After 24 years of harvest moratorium on red drum in federal waters, the stock is in need of reassessment; however, fisherydependent data are not available in federal waters and fishery-independent data are limited. We document the distribution, age composition, growth, and condition of red drum in coastal waters of the north central Gulf of Mexico, using data collected from a nearshore, randomized, bottom longline survey. Age composition of the fishery-independent catch indicates low mortality of fish age 6 and above and confirms the effectiveness of the federal fishing moratorium. Bottom longline surveys may be a cost-effective method for developing fishery-independent indices for red drum provided additional effort can be added to nearshore waters (<20 m depth). As with most stocks under harvest bans, effective monitoring of the recovery of red drum will require the development of fishery-independent indices. With limited economic incentive to evaluate non-exploited stocks, the most cost-effective approach to developing such monitoring is expansion of existing fishery independent surveys. We examine this possibility for red drum in the Gulf of Mexico and recommend the bottom longline survey conducted by the National Marine Fisheries Service expand effort in nearshore areas to allow for the development of long-term abundance indices for red drum.

Biology and population dynamics of cowcod (Sebastes levis) in the southern California Bight

Cowcod (Sebastes levis) is a large (100-cm-FL), long-lived (maximum observed age 55 yr) demersal rockfish taken in multispecies commercial and recreational fisheries off southern and central California. It lives at 20–500 m depth: adults (>44 cm TL) inhabit rocky areas at 90–300 m and juveniles inhabit fine sand and clay at 40–100 m. Both sexes have similar growth and maturity. Both sexes recruit to the fishery before reaching full maturity. Based on age and growth data, the natural mortality rate is about M =0.055/yr, but the estimate is uncertain. Biomass, recruitment, and mortality during 1951–98 were estimated in a delay-difference model with catch data and abundance indices. The same model gave less precise estimates for 1916–50 based on catch data and assumptions about virgin biomass and recruitment such as used in stock reduction analysis. Abundance indices, based on rare event data, included a habitat-area–weighted index of recreational catch per unit of fishing effort (CPUE index values were 0.003–0.07 fish per angler hour), a standardized index of proportion of positive tows in CalCOFI ichthyoplankton survey data (binomial errors, 0–13% positive tows/yr), and proportion of positive tows for juveniles in bottom trawl surveys (binomial errors, 0–30% positive tows/yr). Cowcod are overfished in the southern California Bight; biomass during the 1998 season was about 7% of the virgin level and recent catches have been near 20 metric tons (t)/yr. Projections based on recent recruitment levels indicate that biomass will decline at catch levels > 5 t/yr. Trend data indicate that recruitment will be poor in the near future. Recreational fishing effort in deep water has increased and has become more effective for catching cowcod. Areas with relatively high catch rates for cowcod are fewer and are farther offshore. Cowcod die after capture and cannot be released alive. Two areas recently closed to bottom fishing will help rebuild the cowcod stock.

Camarāo de profundidade: relatório dos cruzeiros realizados com o n/i "Ernst Haeckel" em Agosto-Setembro 1980, Novembro-Dezembro 1980, Janeiro-Fevereiro 1981, Janeiro-Fevereiro 1982

Reports of cruises carried out off Mozambique between parallels 21 degree 00 and 26 degree 20'S and at depths of 400 and 800 meters including abundance indices, catch composition, geographic and bathymetric distributions of shrimp catches are presented. The main species found were Hymenopenaeus triarthrus and Aristeomorpha foliacea which represent 64 to 72% of total catches.

Catch rates as indices of abundance of yellowfin tuna, Thunnus albacares, in the Eastern Pacific Ocean

ENGLISH: Catch and effort data from logbooks of tuna seiners were used to make estimates of catch per hour of searching for 1970-1980. The estimates were standardized using a regression model to make annual estimates of abundance adjusted for fishing mode, speed, capacity, use of aerial assistance, net dimensions, and sea-surface temperature. Inside the CYRA the standardized estimates for tuna schools associated with dolphins and those for schools not associated with dolphins showed a similar overall pattern of decline. The 1980 catch rates were about 300/0 of the 1970 rates, the decline being greater for the schools not associated with dolphins. Dolphin-associated schools outside the CYRA declined to about 60% of the 1970 levels. SPANISH: Se emplearon los datos de la captura y el esfuerzo de los cuadernos de bitácora de las embarcaciones cerqueras para hacer las estimaciones de la captura por hora de búsqueda correspondientes a 1970-1980. Se normalizaron estas estimaciones usando un modelo de regresión con el fin' de hacer las estimaciones anuales de la abundancia, ajustadas según la moda de pesca, velocidad, capacidad, uso de ayuda aérea, dimensiones de la red y temperatura de la superficie del mar. En el ARCAA las estimaciones normalizadas de los cardúmenes de atún asociados con delfines y aquellas de los cardúmenes no asociados con delfines, indicaron una pauta general similar de reducción. Las proporciones de captura de 1980, fueron cerca del 300/0 de las de 1970, encontrándose la mayor reducción en los cardúmenes no asociados con delfines. Los cardúmenes asociados con delfines, fuera del ARCAA, se redujeron en un 60% con respecto a los niveles de 1970. (PDF contains 79 pages.)

Comparison of habitat-based indices of abundance with fishery-independent biomass estimates from bottom trawl surveys

Rockfish species are notoriously difficult to sample with multispecies bottom trawl survey methods. Typically, biomass estimates have high coefficients of variation and can fluctuate outside the bounds of biological reality from year to year. This variation may be due in part to their patchy distribution related to very specific habitat preferences. We successfully modeled the distribution of five commercially important and abundant rockf ish species. A two-stage modeling method (modeling both presence-absence and abundance) and a collection of important habitat variables were used to predict bottom trawl survey catch per unit of effort. The resulting models explained between 22% and 66% of the variation in rockfish distribution. The models were largely driven by depth, local slope, bottom temperature, abundance of coral and sponge, and measures of water column productivity (i.e., phytoplankton and zooplankton). A year-effect in the models was back-transformed and used as an index of the time series of abundance. The abundance index trajectories of three of five species were similar to the existing estimates of their biomass. In the majority of cases the habitat-based indices exhibited less interannual variability and similar precision when compared with stratified survey-based biomass estimates. These indices may provide for stock assessment models a more stable alternative to current biomass estimates produced by the multispecies bottom trawl survey in the Gulf of Alaska.

Relationships between Larval and Juvenile Abundance of Winter-Spawned Fishes in North Carolina, USA

We analyzed the relationships between the larval and juvenile abundances of selected estuarine-dependent fishes that spawn during the winter in continental shelf waters of the U.S. Atlantic coast. Six species were included in the analysis based on their ecological and economic importance and relative abundance in available surveys: spot Leiostomus xanthurus, pinfish Lagodon rhomboides, southern flounder Paralichthys lethostigma, summer flounder Paralichthys dentatus, Atlantic croaker Micropogonias undulatus, and Atlantic menhaden Brevoortia tyrannus. Cross-correlation analysis was used to examine the relationships between the larval and juvenile abundances within species. Tests of synchrony across species were used to find similarities in recruitment dynamics for species with similar winter shelf-spawning life-history strategies. Positive correlations were found between the larval and juvenile abundances for three of the six selected species (spot, pinfish, and southern flounder). These three species have similar geographic ranges that primarily lie south of Cape Hatteras. There were no significant correlations between the larval and juvenile abundances for the other three species (summer flounder, Atlantic croaker, and Atlantic menhaden); we suggest several factors that could account for the lack of a relationship. Synchrony was found among the three southern species within both the larval and juvenile abundance time series. These results provide support for using larval ingress measures as indices of abundance for these and other species with similar geographic ranges and winter shelf-spawning life-history strategies.

Sea surface temperature and the distribution and apparent abundance of skipjack (Katsuwonus pelamis) in the Eastern Pacific Ocean, 1951-1968

ENGLISH: Isograms of sea surface temperature (OC) have been produced for 1949-1968 for the areas of the eastern Pacific Ocean in which the majority of the skipjack catch is taken. These are in the immediate coastal zone, California (35° N) to Chile (20 0 S), and the Revillagigedo and Galapagos Islands groups. Skipjack occurrence and apparent abundance (as CSDF, i.e., catch per standard days fishing, standardized in purse-seiner units) for 1951-1968 were then superimposed on the surface temperature isograms. Results show that skipjack occur at surface temperatures> 17° C but with the majority between 20°-30° C. Apparent abundance at CSDF > 1 ton/day is normally Iimited to 20°29° C water, except in two areas in certain years; from the Gulf of Tehuantepec to Cape Mala rates of 1-9 tons/day are relatively common at 29°-30° C, and off Chimbote (Peru) occasionally >9 tons/day are recorded down to 18° C. As expected there were no apparent relationships between annual thermal conditions in the coastal zone and skipjack abundance (total catch or indices of abundance) in the same or 2 subsequent years. An Appendix to the report determines the quantitative relationships between surface temperature and skipjack abundance in relatively small areal strata in Baja California waters in 1955 and 1958. Relationships generally appeared significant and opposite in these years when temperatures were respectively anomalously cold and warm. SPANISH: Se han producido isogramas de la temperatura de la superficie del mar (OC) para 1949-1968 correspondientes a las áreas del Océano Pacífico oriental en donde se obtiene la mayor parte de la captura de barrilete. Estas se encuentran ubicadas en la zona costanera inmediata, desde California (35°N) hasta Chile (200S) y en las Islas Revillagigedo y Galápagos. La ocurrencia de barrilete y su abundancia aparente (expresada como CDSP standardizada en unidades de cerqueros) para 1951-1968 fueron luego superpuestas en los isogramas de la temperatura superficial. Los resultados demuestran que el barrilete aparece en temperaturas superficiales de > 17°C pero la mayoría entre los 20°C-30°C. La abundancia aparente de la CDSP > 1 tonelada/día se limita normalmente a aguas de 20°-29°C, excepto en dos áreas en ciertos años; desde el Golfo de Tehuantepec a Cabo Mala las tasas de 1-9 toneladas/día son relativamente comunes en los 29°-30°C, y frente a Chimbote (Perú) se registran ocasionalmente> 9 toneladas/día a una temperatura tan fría como de 18°C. Como era de esperarse no existió una relación aparente entre las condiciones térmicas anuales de la zona costanera y la abundancia del barrilete (captura total o índices de abundancia) en el mismo año o en los 2 años siguientes. Un Apéndice del informe determina la relación cuantitativa entre la temperatura superficial y la abundancia del barrilete en un estrato de áreas relativamente pequeño en las aguas de Baja California en 1955 y 1968. Las relaciones generalmente aparecieron significativas y opuestas en esos años cuando las temperaturas fueron respectivamente anómalamente frías y calientes. (PDF contains 53 pages.)

Estimation of the abundance of yellowfin tuna, Thunnus albacares, by age groups and regions within the Eastern Pacific Ocean

ENGLISH: Monthly estimates of the abundance of yellowfin tuna by age groups and regions within the eastern Pacific Ocean during 1970-1988 are made, using purse-seine catch rates, length-frequency samples, and results from cohort analysis. The numbers of individuals caught of each age group in each logged purse-seine set are estimated, using the tonnage from that set and length-frequency distribution from the "nearest" length-frequency sample(s). Nearest refers to the closest length frequency sample(s) to the purse-seine set in time, distance, and set type (dolphin associated, floating object associated, skipjack associated, none of these, and some combinations). Catch rates are initially calculated as the estimated number of individuals of the age group caught per hour of searching. Then, to remove the effects of set type and vessel speed, they are standardized, using separate weiznted generalized linear models for each age group. The standardized catch rates at the center of each 2.5 0 quadrangle-month are estimated, using locally-weighted least-squares regressions on latitude, longitude and date, and then combined into larger regions. Catch rates within these regions are converted to numbers of yellowfin, using the mean age composition from cohort analysis. The variances of the abundance estimates within regions are large for 0-, 1-, and 5-year-olds, but small for 1.5- to 4-year-olds, except during periods of low fishing activity. Mean annual catch rate estimates for the entire eastern Pacific Ocean are significantly positively correlated with mean abundance estimates from cohort analysis for age groups ranging from 1.5 to 4 years old. Catch-rate indices of abundance by age are expected to be useful in conjunction with data on reproductive biology to estimate total egg production within regions. The estimates may also be useful in understanding geographic and temporal variations in age-specific availability to purse seiners, as well as age-specific movements. SPANISH: Se calculan estimaciones mensuales de la abundancia del atún aleta amarilla por grupos de edad y regiones en el Océano Pacífico oriental durante 1970-1988, usando tasas de captura cerquera, muestras de frecuencia de talla, y los resultados del análisis de cohortes. Se estima el número de individuos capturados de cada grupo de edad en cada lance cerquero registrado, usando el tonelaje del lance en cuestión y la distribución de frecuencia de talla de la(s) muestra(s) de frecuencia de talla "más cercana/s)," "Más cercana" significa la(s) muestra(s) de frecuencia de talla más parecida(s) al lance cerquero en cuanto a fecha, distancia, y tipo de lance (asociado con delfines, con objeto flotante, con barrilete, con ninguno de éstos, y algunas combinaciones). Se calculan inicialmente las tasas de captura como el número estimado de individuos del grupo de edad capturado por hora de búsqueda. A continuación, para eliminar los efectos del tipo de lance y la velocidad del barco, se estandardizan dichas tasas, usando un modelo lineal generalizado ponderado, para cada grupo por separado. Se estima la tasa de captura estandardizada al centro de cada cuadrángulo de 2.5°-mes, usando regresiones de mínimos cuadrados ponderados localmente por latitud, longitud, y fecha, y entonces combinándolas en regiones mayores. Se convierten las tasas de captura dentro de estas regiones en números de aletas amarillas individuales, usando el número promedio por edad proveniente del análisis de cohortes. Las varianzas de las estimaciones de la abundancia dentro de las regiones son grandes para los peces de O, 1, Y5 años de edad, pero pequeñas para aquellos de entre 1.5 Y4 años de edad, excepto durante períodos de poca actividad pesquera. Las estimaciones de la tasa de captura media anual para todo el Océano Pacífico oriental están correlacionadas positivamente de forma significativa con las estimaciones de la abundancia media del análisis de las cohortes para los grupos de edad de entre 1.5 y 4 años. Se espera que los índices de abundancia por edad basados en las tasas de captura sean útiles, en conjunto con datos de la biología reproductiva, para estimar la producción total de huevos por regiones. Las estimaciones podrían asimismo ser útiles para la comprensión de las variaciones geográficas y temporales de la disponibilidad específica por edad a los barcos cerqueros, y también las migraciones específicas por edad. (PDF contains 35 pages.)

Using poststratification to improve abundance estimates from multispecies surveys: a study of juvenile flatfishes

Population assessments seldom incorporate habitat information or use previously observed distributions of fish density. Because habitat affects the spatial distribution of fish density and overall abundance, the use of habitat information and previous estimates of fish density can produce more precise and less biased population estimates. In this study, we describe how poststratification can be applied as an unbiased estimator to data sets that were collected under a probability sampling design, typical of many multispecies trawl surveys. With data from a multispecies survey of juvenile flatfish, we show how poststratification can be applied to a data set that was not collected under a probability sampling design, where both the precision and the bias are unknown. For each of four species, three estimates of total abundance were compared: 1) unstratified; 2) poststratified by habitat; and 3) poststratified by habitat and fish density (high fish density and low fish density) in nearby years. Poststratification by habitat gave more precise and (or) less design-biased estimates than an unstratified estimator for all species in all years. Poststratification by habitat and fish density produced the most precise and representative estimates when the sample size in the high fish-density and low fish-density strata were sufficient (in this study, n≥20 in the high fish-density stratum, n≥9 in the low fish-density stratum). Because of the complexities of statistically testing the annual stratified data, we compared three indices of abundance for determining statistically significant changes in annual abundance. Each of the indices closely approximated the annual differences of the poststratified estimates. Selection of the most appropriate index was dependent upon the species’ density distribution within habitat and the sample size in the different habitat areas. The methods used in this study are particularly useful for estimating individual species abundance from multispecies surveys and for retrospective st

An Index of Abundance for Coastal Species of Juvenile Sharks from the Northeast Gulf of Mexico

A fishery-independent assessment of juvenile coastal shark populations in U.S. waters of the northeast Gulf of Mexico was conducted using two methods: gillnets and longlines. Surveys were conducted monthly during April–October in two fixed sampling areas from 1996 to 1998. The Atlantic sharpnose shark, Rhizoprionodon terraenovae, and the blacktip shark, Carcharhinus limbatus, were the most common species captured with either longlines or gillnets. An additional 14 shark species were captured, and juvenile indices of abundance were developed for 8 species with gillnets and 6 species of sharks with longlines. Trends in catch-per-unit-effort were found to vary depending on species. Length-frequency information revealed that the majority of sharks captured were juveniles. Given the direct relationship between stock and recruitment for sharks, continued monitoring of juvenile abundance will aid in determining the strength of the parental stock size and for predicting future population strength.