10 resultados para AFT Models for Crash Duration Survival Analysis

em Aquatic Commons


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Accurate and precise estimates of age and growth rates are essential parameters in understanding the population dynamics of fishes. Some of the more sophisticated stock assessment models, such as virtual population analysis, require age and growth information to partition catch data by age. Stock assessment efforts by regulatory agencies are usually directed at specific fisheries which are being heavily exploited and are suspected of being overfished. Interest in stock assessment of some of the oceanic pelagic fishes (tunas, billfishes, and sharks) has developed only over the last decade, during which exploitation has increased steadily in response to increases in worldwide demand for these resources. Traditionally, estimating the age of fishes has been done by enumerating growth bands on skeletal hardparts, through length frequency analysis, tag and recapture studies, and raising fish in enclosures. However, problems related to determining the age of some of the oceanic pelagic fishes are unique compared with other species. For example, sampling is difficult for these large, highly mobile fishes because of their size, extensive distributions throughout the world's oceans, and for some, such as the marlins, infrequent catches. In addition, movements of oceanic pelagic fishes often transect temperate as well as tropical oceans, making interpretation of growth bands on skeletal hardparts more difficult than with more sedentary temperate species. Many oceanic pelagics are also long-lived, attaining ages in excess of 30 yr, and more often than not, their life cycles do not lend themselves easily to artificial propagation and culture. These factors contribute to the difficulty of determining ages and are generally characteristic of this group-the tunas, billfishes, and sharks. Accordingly, the rapidly growing international concern in managing oceanic pelagic fishes, as well as unique difficulties in ageing these species, prompted us to hold this workshop. Our two major objectives for this workshop are to: I) Encourage the interchange of ideas on this subject, and 2) establish the "state of the art." A total of 65 scientists from 10 states in the continental United States and Hawaii, three provinces in Canada, France, Republic of Senegal, Spain, Mexico, Ivory Coast, and New South Wales (Australia) attended the workshop held at the Southeast Fisheries Center, Miami, Fla., 15-18 February 1982. Our first objective, encouraging the interchange of ideas, is well illustrated in the summaries of the Round Table Discussions and in the Glossary, which defines terms used in this volume. The majority of the workshop participants agreed that the lack of validation of age estimates and the means to accomplish the same are serious problems preventing advancements in assessing the age and growth of fishes, particularly oceanic pelagics. The alternatives relating to the validation problem were exhaustively reviewed during the Round Table Discussions and are a major highlight of this workshop. How well we accomplished our second objective, to establish the "state of the art" on age determination of oceanic pelagic fishes, will probably best be judged on the basis of these proceedings and whether future research efforts are directed at the problem areas we have identified. In order to produce high-quality papers, workshop participants served as referees for the manuscripts published in this volume. Several papers given orally at the workshop, and included in these proceedings, were summarized from full-length manuscripts, which have been submitted to or published in other scientific outlets-these papers are designated as SUMMARY PAPERS. In addition, the SUMMARY PAPER designation was also assigned to workshop papers that represented very preliminary or initial stages of research, cursory progress reports, papers that were data shy, or provide only brief reviews on general topics. Bilingual abstracts were included for all papers that required translation. We gratefully acknowledge the support of everyone involved in this workshop. Funding was provided by the Southeast Fisheries Center, and Jack C. Javech did the scientific illustrations appearing on the cover, between major sections, and in the Glossary. (PDF file contains 228 pages.)

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Siren and Amphiuma are two poorly known genera of aquatic salamanders that occur in the Southeastern United States. A primarily bottom-dwelling existence makes these salamanders difficult to detect with conventional sampling methodologies. Therefore, the current status of their populations is unknown. I compared the capture success of modified crayfish traps and plastic minnow traps in capturing these salamanders. In addition, a mark-recapture study of S. lacertina (Greater siren) and A. means (Two-toed amphiuma) was conducted at Okefenokee National Wildlife Refuge (southern Georgia) and at Katharine Ordway Preserve (north-central Florida) from August 2001 until September 2002. Crayfish traps were much more successful than minnow traps in catching siren and amphiuma. Crayfish traps yielded 270 captures for an overall capture success of 16%, whereas minnow traps yielded only 13 captures for an overall success rate of 0.05%. In addition, several marking techniques were evaluated, and of these, only passive integrated transponder (PIT) tags were retained for the duration of the study. Therefore, I recommend this marking technique for long-term monitoring of S. lacertina and A. means. Several variables were found to have significant effects on capture rates of salamanders. A. means were most often captured in summer and the number of captures was positively correlated with water temperature, water level, and rainfall. S. lacertina were most often captured during winter and spring. Number of captures was negatively correlated with water temperature, while no relationship was found with water level or rainfall. Trap day and baiting had no significant effect on number of A. means or S. lacertina captured. Recapture probabilities of both species were low, 0.025-0.03 for S. lacertina and 0.08-0.11 for A. means. Monthly survival rates were high, 0.77-0.97 for A. means and 0.88-1.00 for S. lacertina. Density estimates of 1.3 salamanders/m2 (S. lacertina) and 0.28 salamanders/m2 (A. means) were obtained for Lake Suggs using Jolly-Seber models. Siren and amphiuma make up a substantial part of wetland biomass and can impact many other wetland species. Thus, more attention must be focused on evaluating and monitoring their populations.

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The effects of light duration on the growth and performance of Clarias gariepinus fingerlings were investigated using artificial methods to simulate continuous day length and absolute darkness. The normal day length (12-H Light and 12-H Darkness) served as the control. Among some of the factors affected by the varying photoperiods there were body coloration, feeding efficiency, survival rate and Specific Growth Rate (SGR). There was notably no significant difference between the SGR of the 0-photoperiod culture and the control (P>0.05) but there was significant difference between the 0-photoperiod and the 24-H photoperiod experiment (P<0.05). The haematological profile analysed showed various degrees of changes in the blood parameters of fish cultured under different photoperiods. These changes however, did not show significant differences when subjected to statistical analysis

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Ichthyoplankton surveys have been used to provide an independent estimate of adult spawning biomass of commercially exploited species and to further our understanding of the recruitment processes in the early life stages. However, predicting recruitment has been difficult because of the complex interaction of physical and biological processes operating at different spatial and temporal scales that can occur at the different life stages. A model of first-year life-stage recruitment was applied to Georges Bank Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) and haddock (Melanogrammus aeglefinus) stocks over the years 1977–2004 by using environmental and densitydependent relationships. The best lifestage mortality relationships for eggs, larvae, pelagic juveniles, and demersal juveniles were first determined by hindcasting recruitment estimates based on egg and larval abundance and mortality rates derived from two intensive sampling periods, 1977–87 and 1995–99. A wind-driven egg mortality relationship was used to estimate losses due to transport off the bank, and a wind-stress larval mortality relationship was derived from feeding and survival studies. A simple metric for the density-dependent effects of Atlantic cod was used for both Atlantic cod and haddock. These life stage proxies were then applied to the virtual population analysis (VPA) derived annual egg abundances to predict age-1 recruitment. Best models were determined from the correlation of predicted and VPA-derived age-1 abundance. The larval stage was the most quantifiable of any stage from surveys, whereas abundance estimates of the demersal juvenile stage were not available because of undersampling. Attempts to forecast recruitment from spawning stock biomass or egg abundance, however, will always be poor because of variable egg survival.

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Northern rock sole (Lepidopsetta polyxystra) is a commercially important flatfish in Alaska and was recently classified as a distinct species from southern rock sole (L. bilineata). Taxonomic and vital rate data for northern rock sole are still not fully described, notably at early egg and larval stages. In this study, we provide new taxonomic descriptions of late-stage eggs and newly hatched larvae, as well as temperature-response models of hatching (timing, duration, success), and larval size-at-hatch and posthatch survival at four temperatures (2°, 5°, 9°, and 12°C). Time-to-first-hatch, hatch cycle duration, and overall hatching success showed a negative relationship with temperature. Early hatching larvae within each temperature treatment were smaller and had larger yolk sacs, but larvae incubated at higher temperatures (9° and 12°C) had the largest yolk reserves overall. Despite having smaller yolks, size-at-hatch and the maximum size achieved during the hatching cycle was highest for larvae reared at cold temperatures (2° and 5°C), indicating that endogenous reserves are more efficiently used for growth at these temperatures. In addition, larvae reared at high temperatures died more rapidly in the absence of food despite having more yolk reserves than cold-incubated larvae. Overall, northern rock sole eggs and larvae display early life history traits consistent with coldwater adaptation for winter spawning in the North Pacific.

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We evaluated the conservation benefits of the use of circle hooks compared with standard J hooks in the recreational fishery for Atlantic istiophorid billfishes, noting hooking location and the presence of trauma (bleeding) for 123 blue marlin (Makaira nigricans), 272 white marlin (Kajikia albida), and 132 sailfish (Istiophorus platypterus) caught on natural baits rigged with one of the two hook types. In addition, we used pop-up satellite archival tags (PSATs) to follow the fate of 61 blue marlin caught on natural baits rigged with circle hooks or on a combination of artificial lure and natural bait rigged with J hooks. The frequencies of internal hooking locations and bleeding were significantly lower with circle hooks than with J hooks for each of the three species and were significantly reduced for blue marlin caught on J hooks than for white marlin and sailfish taken on the same hook type. Analysis of the data received from 59 PSATs (two tags released prematurely) indicated no mortalities among the 29 blue marlin caught on circle hooks and two mortalities among the 30 blue marlin caught on J hooks (6.7%). Collectively, the hook location and PSAT data revealed that blue marlin, like white marlin and sailfish, derive substantial conservation benefits from the use of circle hooks, and the negative impacts of J hooks are significantly reduced for blue marlin relative to the other two species.

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Ten growth models were fitted to age and growth data for spiny dogfish (Squalus acanthias) in the Gulf of Alaska. Previous studies of spiny dogfish growth have all fitted the t0 formulation of the von Bertalanffy model without examination of alternative models. Among the alternatives, we present a new two-phase von Bertalanffy growth model formulation with a logistically scaled k parameter and which estimates L0. A total of 1602 dogfish were aged from opportunistic collections with longline, rod and reel, set net, and trawling gear in the eastern and central Gulf of Alaska between 2004 and 2007. Ages were estimated from the median band count of three independent readings of the second dorsal spine plus the estimated number of worn bands for worn spines. Owing to a lack of small dogfish in the samples, lengths at age of small individuals were back-calculated from a subsample of 153 dogfish with unworn spines. The von Bertalanffy, two-parameter von Bertalanffy, two-phase von Bertalanffy, Gompertz, two-parameter Gompertz, and logistic models were fitted to length-at-age data for each sex separately, both with and without back-calculated lengths at age. The two-phase von Bertalanffy growth model produced the statistically best fit for both sexes of Gulf of Alaska spiny dogfish, resulting in L∞ = 87.2 and 102.5 cm and k= 0.106 and 0.058 for males and females, respectively.

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To estimate postrelease survival of white marlin (Tetrapturus albidus) caught incidentally in regular commercial pelagic longline fishing operations targeting swordfish and tunas, short-duration popup satellite archival tags (PSATs) were deployed on captured animals for periods of 5−43 days. Twenty (71.4%) of 28 tags transmitted data at the preprogrammed time, including one tag that separated from the fish shortly after release and was omitted from subsequent analyses. Transmitted data from 17 of 19 tags were consistent with survival of those animals for the duration of the tag deployment. Postrelease survival estimates ranged from 63.0% (assuming all nontransmitting tags were evidence of mortality) to 89.5% (excluding nontransmitting tags from the analysis). These results indicate that white marlin can survive the trauma resulting from interaction with pelagic longline gear, and indicate that current domestic and international management measures requiring the release of live white marlin from this fishery will reduce fishing mortality on the Atlantic-wide stock.

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This study was an attempt to apply land-based GIS analysis for freshwater aquaculture planning in the Red River Delta of Vietnam. It was based on diverse data sources in order to help decision makers at the site and also to contribute to the modelling of selection processes for aquaculture development planning in the region.

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EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): Streamflow values show definite seasonal patterns in their month-to-month correlation structure. The structure also seems to vary as a function of the type of stream (coastal versus mountain or humid versus arid region). The standard autoregressive moving average (ARMA) time series model is incapable of reproducing this correlation structure. ... A periodic ARMA time series model is one in which an ARMA model is fitted to each month or season but the parameters of the model are constrained to be periodic according to a Fourier series. This constraint greatly reduces the number of parameters but still leaves the flexibility for matching the seasonally varying correlograms.