Prediction, Chaos and Ecological Perspective.

As defined, the modeling procedure is quite broad. For example, the chosen compartments may contain a single organism, a population of organisms, or an ensemble of populations. A population compartment, in turn, could be homogeneous or possess structure in size or age. Likewise, the mathematical statements may be deterministic or probabilistic in nature, linear or nonlinear, autonomous or able to possess memory. Examples of all types appear in the literature. In practice, however, ecosystem modelers have focused upon particular types of model constructions. Most analyses seem to treat compartments which are nonsegregated (populations or trophic levels) and homogeneous. The accompanying mathematics is, for the most part, deterministic and autonomous. Despite the enormous effort which has gone into such ecosystem modeling, there remains a paucity of models which meets the rigorous &! validation criteria which might be applied to a model of a mechanical system. Most ecosystem models are short on prediction ability. Even some classical examples, such as the Lotka-Volterra predator-prey scheme, have not spawned validated examples.

Sensitivity of sturgeons to environmental hypoxia: a review of physiological and ecological evidence

In this essay, three lines of evidence are developed that sturgeons in the Chesapeake Bay and elsewhere are unusually sensitive to hypoxic conditions: 1. In comparison to other fishes,sturgeons have a limited behavioral and physiological capacity to respond to hypoxia. Basal metabolism, growth, feeding rate, and survival are sensitive to changes in oxygen level, which may indicate a relatively poor ability of sturgeons to oxyregulate. 2. During summertime, temperatures >20°C amplify the effect of hypoxia on sturgeons and other fishes due to a temperature oxygen "squeeze" (Coutant 1987). In bottom waters, this interaction results in substantial reduction of habitat; in dry years, sturgeon nursery habitats in the Chesapeake Bay may be particularly reduced or even eliminated. 3. While evidence for population level effects due to hypoxia is circumstantial, there are corresponding trends between the absence of Atlantic sturgeon reproduction in estuaries like the Chesapeake Bay where summertime hypoxia predominates on a system-wide scale. Also, the recent and dramatic recovery of shortnose sturgeon in the Hudson River (4-bid increase in abundance from 1980 to1995) may have been stimulated by improvement of a large portion of the nursery habitat that was restored from hypoxia to normoxia during the period 1973-1978.

A Comparison of the SNP Variation in the Calcification PMCA Gene of Lottia gigantea between a Santa Barbara Population and a More Acidic Monterey Bay Population

As the atmospheric levels of CO2 rise from human activity, the carbonic acid levels of the ocean increase, causing ocean acidification. This increase in acidity breaks down the calcified bodies that many marine organisms depend upon. Upwelling regions such as Monterey Bay in California have pH levels that are not expected to reach the open ocean for a few decades. This study reviews one of the common intertidal animals of the California coast, the Owl Limpet Lottia gigantea, and its genetic variation of the plasma membrane Ca2+ ATPase (PMCA) in relation to the acidity of its environment. The PMCA protein functions in the calcification process of many organisms. Specifically in limpets, this gene functions to form its protective shell. Single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) were found among five sections of the gene to determine variation between the acidic environment population in Monterey, California and the non-acidic environment population in Santa Barbara, California. While some variation was determined, the Monterey Bay and Santa Barbara Lottia gigantea populations are not significantly distinct at the PMCA gene. Sections B, C, and D were found to be linked. Only one location in Section B was found to have an amino acid change within an exon. Section A has the strongest connection to the sampling location. Monterey individuals were seen to be more genetically recognizable, while Santa Barbara individuals showed slightly more variation. Understanding the trends of ocean acidification, upwelling region activities, and population genetics will assist in determining how the ocean environment will behave in the future.

Capture fisheries in Uganda: why Bujagali hydro-power project and ecological monitoring?

Human use of water resow-ces in Uganda has grown and intensified along with population growth and increasing demand to meet the diverse human needs. In the case of Uganda's rivers, the main uses include fisheries, hydropower generation, abstraction for potable water supply, discharge of sewage and navigation. All these uses can disrupt the integrity of the aquatic ecosystem and may affect the survival of the diversity of organisms. In consideration of the need to increase electricity to meet demand, the Bujagali Hydro-power Project (BHPP) and the National Environment Management Authority (NEMA) recognised the importance of safeguards to mitigate impacts of the project. The National Fisheries Resources Research Institute (NaFIRRI) was assigned the role of providing baseline information on the aquatic ecosystem of the Upper Victoria Nile and to follow up the findings with a monitoring framework during construction and post-commissioning phases.

Annotated bibliography on socio-economic and ecological impacts of marine protected areas in Pacific Island countries

The bibliography is to highlight impacts on fisheries and livelihoods attributed to coral reef marine protected areas in Pacific Island countries and territories. Included in this collection is literature that reports various forms of reef area management practiced in Pacific Island countries: reserves, sanctuaries, permanent or temporary closed areas, community and traditional managed areas. (Document contains 36 pages)

Catch-22: conservation, communities and the privatization of B.C. fisheries. An economic, social and ecological impact study

pdf contains 47 pages

Extreme events and ecological forecasting

Almost all extreme events lasting less than several weeks that significantly impact ecosystems are weather related. This review examines the response of estuarine systems to intense short-term perturbations caused by major weather events such as hurricanes. Current knowledge concerning these effects is limited to relatively few studies where hurricanes and storms impacted estuaries with established environmental monitoring programs. Freshwater inputs associated with these storms were found to initially result in increased primary productivity. When hydrographic conditions are favorable, bacterial consumption of organic matter produced by the phytoplankton blooms and deposited during the initial runoff event can contribute to significant oxygen deficits during subsequent warmer periods. Salinity stress and habitat destruction associated with freshwater inputs, as well as anoxia, adversely affect benthic populations and fish. In contrast, mobile invertebrate species such as shrimp, which have a short life cycle and the ability to migrate during the runoff event, initially benefit from the increased primary productivity and decreased abundance of fish predators. Events studied so far indicate that estuaries rebound in one to three years following major short-term perturbations. However, repeated storm events without sufficient recovery time may cause a fundamental shift in ecosystem structure (Scavia et al. 2002). This is a scenario consistent with the predicted increase in hurricanes for the east coast of the United States. More work on the response of individual species to these stresses is needed so management of commercial resources can be adjusted to allow sufficient recovery time for affected populations.

Taxonomic and ecological survey of the flora of Calvert County, Maryland

Resulted from a occasional field trips on the Patuxent River, 1964-1968. Taxonomy and ecology survey following the quarter method (Cottam and Curtis, 1956) Includes: Literature review: Forests, soils, ecology; Materials and Methods: location, criteria, map of Calvert county; Results: descriptive, species of trees sampled; soils, ecology; discussion: vegetational, soils, ecology; Summary; Climate; Physical features of Calvert County; Botanical descriptions; Tables, Current checklist of vascular plants; selective bibliography

A Floristic and ecological survey of Assateague Island, Virgina-Maryland

Assateague Island is an offshore bar comprising the south-eastern coast of Maryland and the northeastern coast of Virgina. It is part of the system of discontinuous barrier reefs or bars which occupy most of the Atlantic shoreline from Florida to Massachusetts. These are unstable bars, continuously influenced by storm winds and tides which provide a distinct and rigorous habitat for the vegetation there. General floras of the Delmarva Peninusla do not mention Assateague Island specifically. The objective is to prepare a catalog of the vascular plants of Assateague Island and to describe the communities in which they are found, in the hope it will add to the knowledge of barrier reef vegetation.

TUNPOP, a computer simulation model of the yellowfin tuna population and the surface tuna fishery of the Eastern Pacific Ocean

ENGLISH: Mathematical documentation of TUNP0P, an age-structured computer simulation model of the yellowfin tuna population and surface tuna fishery of the eastern Pacific Ocean, is described. Example runs of the model are presented and discussed, and the sensitivity of the model output to changes in various parameters is examined. SPANISH: Se describe la documentación matemática de TUNP0P, un modelo computador de simulación basado en la edad de la población del atún aleta amarilla y de la pesca atunera epipelágíca del Océano Pacífico oriental. Se presentan y se discuten ejemplos de las pasadas del modelo, y se examina la sensibilidad de los resultados de salida con relación a los cambios de varios parámetros. (PDF contains 47 pages.)

The diversity and ecological role of protozoa in fresh waters

Protozoa feed on and regulate the abundance of most types of aquatic microorganisms, and they are an integral part of all aquatic microbial food webs. Being so small, aerobic protozoa thrive at low oxygen tensions, where they feed (largely unaffected by metazoan grazing) on the abundance of other microorganisms. In anaerobic environments, they are the only phagotrophic organisms, and they live in unique symbiotic consortia with methanogens, sulphate reducers and non-sulphur purple bacteria. The number of extant species of protozoa may be quite modest (the global number of ciliate species is estimated at 3000), and most of them probably have cosmopolitan distributions. This will undoubtedly make it easier to carry out further tasks, e.g. understanding the role of protozoan species diversity in the natural environment.

History of the Atlantic Pearl-Oyster, Pinctata imbricata, Industry in Venezuela and Colombia, with Biological and Ecological Observations

In the 1500’s, the waters of Venezuela and to a lesser extent Colombia produced more natural pearls than any place ever produced in the world in any succeeding century. Atlantic pearl-oysters, Pinctata imbricata Röding 1798, were harvested almost entirely by divers. The pearls from them were exported to Spain and other European countries. By the end of the 1500’s, the pearl oysters had become much scarcer, and little harvesting took place during the 1600’s and 1700’s. Harvesting began to accelerate slowly in the mid 1800’s and has since continued but at a much lower rate than in the 1500’s. The harvesting methods have been hand collecting by divers until the early 1960’s, dredging from the 1500’s to the present, and hardhat diving from 1912 to the early 1960’s. Since the mid 1900’s, Japan and other countries of the western Pacific rim have inundated world markets with cultured pearls that are of better quality and are cheaper than natural pearls, and the marketing of natural pearls has nearly ended. The pearl oyster fishery in Colombia ended in the 1940’s, but it has continued in Venezuela with the fishermen selling the meats to support themselves; previously most meats had been discarded. A small quantity of pearls is now taken, and the fishery, which comprised about 3,000 fishermen in 1947, comprised about 300 in 2002.

Building social and ecological resilience to climate change in Roviana, Solomon Islands: PASAP country activity for Solomon Islands: Brief review: climate change trends and projections for Solomon Islands

As part of the Australian Government’s International Climate Change Adaptation Initiative (ICCAI), the Pacific Adaptation Strategy Assistance Program (PASAP) aims to enhance the capacity of partner countries to assess key vulnerabilities and risks, formulate adaptation strategies and plans, mainstream adaptation into decision-making, and inform robust longterm national planning and decision-making in partner countries. The Department of Climate Change and Energy Efficiency contracted University of Queensland (UQ) and University of California, Santa Barbara (UCSB) to lead the project: “Building social and ecological resilience to climate change in Roviana, Solomon Islands” (2010-2012). Under this project The WorldFish Center was subcontracted to undertake outputs 5 and 6 of Objective three: (5) Review of climate change evidence and projections for the study area and (6) Vulnerability and adaptation assessment for the study area. This report addresses the first of these and comprises a desktop review of climate change evidence and projections for the study area.